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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Oct 15, 2023 18:13:38 GMT -5
Think Houck, Verdugo, Yorke, Yoshi, and Walter gets it done for Soto and Cronenworth? No, you don’t trade three big leaguers for Soto that just opens more holes. Yoshida is not somebody you trade with his contract either, especially when they want to cut payroll. It would be something like Rafaela or Duran, Yorke and Perales or Gonzalez imo
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Post by larrycook on Oct 15, 2023 19:30:29 GMT -5
I hope we allocate more resources toward pitching this offseason:
Catcher - McGuire, wong Infielders - devers, amed rosario (free agent), story, casas, urias, Valdez Outfielders - Duran, Duvall , abreau, Refsynder, Rafeala
Starting pitching - snell (free agent), sale, Bello, inogema (Japan free agent) ryu (free agent) Crawford.
Relievers - Jansen, Martin, matsui (Japan free agent) Whitlock, Winkowski, schreiber, houck.
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Post by kwodes on Oct 17, 2023 6:33:23 GMT -5
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Post by dirtdog on Oct 17, 2023 19:39:47 GMT -5
Yoshi had a so so season but I'd be surprised if he gets traded. I think there are a lot of eyes in Japan who may be interested in playing over here wanting to see how his situation plays out. For example:
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Oct 17, 2023 22:10:28 GMT -5
I don’t see the Sox trading Yoshida under nearly any circumstances. He’s already been paid so he has no surplus value. The guys you trade are arb, pre arb and prospects. Any trade involving him would be a salary dump and I don’t see the Sox doing that. Am I crazy?
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Oct 18, 2023 18:20:04 GMT -5
Trout would be LF only at Fenway and had back injury concerns so bad this year that there was thought he might never play again. You can't win buying nostalgia. That's how you lose. The Angels already got Trout's best years. Abreu will outproduce Trout over the next 7 years. That is a ridiculous statement. If ZIPS projects Trout at 15 WAR over the next 7 years, are you saying ZIPS is being ridiculous or that it is ridiculous to expect for 15 WAR from Abreu?
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Post by melvinhoggs on Oct 18, 2023 19:02:04 GMT -5
That is a ridiculous statement. If ZIPS projects Trout at 15 WAR over the next 7 years, are you saying ZIPS is being ridiculous or that it is ridiculous to expect for 15 WAR from Abreu? I'd imagine it's probably a bit of both. I know people like to bet on health, especially for current/former stars – and if Trout manages to be even decently healthy, 15 WAR over the next 7 years feels light. He could easily play half a season or less for several years and then have a random year like 2022 again where he racks up 6+ WAR. And for Abreu, 2.1 WAR per year would probably be seen as a big victory given that he was never really a top prospect. That being said, Abreu will cost next to nothing and Trout is owed like $250M, so...
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 18, 2023 19:19:35 GMT -5
Once you get to your mid 30s, the spreadsheets (which are just based on history) project even all time greats for huge yearly declines. Trout is 32 next year.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Oct 18, 2023 19:35:06 GMT -5
If ZIPS projects Trout at 15 WAR over the next 7 years, are you saying ZIPS is being ridiculous or that it is ridiculous to expect for 15 WAR from Abreu? I'd imagine it's probably a bit of both. I know people like to bet on health, especially for current/former stars – and if Trout manages to be even decently healthy, 15 WAR over the next 7 years feels light. He could easily play half a season or less for several years and then have a random year like 2022 again where he racks up 6+ WAR. And for Abreu, 2.1 WAR per year would probably be seen as a big victory given that he was never really a top prospect. That being said, Abreu will cost next to nothing and Trout is owed like $250M, so... I think it is pretty bold to predict that Abreu will out perform Trout, over any range of seasons, based on just one month of Abreu's MLB performance.
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Post by melvinhoggs on Oct 18, 2023 19:49:52 GMT -5
I'd imagine it's probably a bit of both. I know people like to bet on health, especially for current/former stars – and if Trout manages to be even decently healthy, 15 WAR over the next 7 years feels light. He could easily play half a season or less for several years and then have a random year like 2022 again where he racks up 6+ WAR. And for Abreu, 2.1 WAR per year would probably be seen as a big victory given that he was never really a top prospect. That being said, Abreu will cost next to nothing and Trout is owed like $250M, so... I think it is pretty bold to predict that Abreu will out perform Trout, over any range of seasons, based on just one month of Abreu's MLB performance. I was agreeing with this in my post. In my opinion of whether it was the ZIPS projection or Abreu's trajectory that made the "Abreu will outproduce Trout over the next 7 years" statement feel ridiculous, I think it's some of both. If you told me I could have one of those guys for the next 7 years, I would pick Trout and I really wouldn't give it a second thought. But he's also owed $250M, so I'm not going to take that contract and possibly offer prospects for the privilege of gambling on his health.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 18, 2023 20:29:03 GMT -5
That is a ridiculous statement. If ZIPS projects Trout at 15 WAR over the next 7 years, are you saying ZIPS is being ridiculous or that it is ridiculous to expect for 15 WAR from Abreu? Projections systems do not take into account injuries going forward only based on what has occurred the past years.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,108
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Post by jimoh on Oct 19, 2023 6:29:15 GMT -5
That is a ridiculous statement. If ZIPS projects Trout at 15 WAR over the next 7 years, are you saying ZIPS is being ridiculous or that it is ridiculous to expect for 15 WAR from Abreu? This has probably been mentioned earlier, but at age 22 Phil Planter his .331 .420 .615 1.034 for 2.2 bWAR in 53 games after hitting .305 .438 .557 .995 in AAA. He came in 8th in the ROY. He played 8 years and totaled 2.3 bWAR. (He had 1.7 for SD at age 24 when he hit 34 hrs., but often had negative WAR) Thinking Abreu MAY have 15 WAR over the next 7 years is reasonable. Thinking he WILL is not.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Oct 19, 2023 12:44:47 GMT -5
So far we have seen arguments for "bold" and "unreasonable." Neither of those adjectives are the same as "ridiculous."
Personally, I'll let you keep Mike Trout. I'll take the kid, the prospects that would change hands, the $250M & see if I can't do better.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 19, 2023 13:04:45 GMT -5
So far we have seen arguments for "bold" and "unreasonable." Neither of those adjectives are the same as "ridiculous." Personally, I'll let you keep Mike Trout. I'll take the kid, the prospects that would change hands, the $250M & see if I can't do better. In WAR/$ terms, Abreu probably projects to outperform Bryce Harper and Mookie Betts, let alone Trout. But that's just to say that this isn't really the relevant comparison. The question is: do you take Mike Trout over whatever you can get for the same amount of spending on free agents?
I'd say it depends on how much of his contract the Angels are willing to eat. If they eat none of his contract, then I don't entertain the possibility for a second. If they eat all of his contract, then that's obviously a no-brainer. So the question becomes: at what amount of Angels salary-eating does it become worthwhile?
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Oct 19, 2023 15:19:26 GMT -5
So far we have seen arguments for "bold" and "unreasonable." Neither of those adjectives are the same as "ridiculous." Personally, I'll let you keep Mike Trout. I'll take the kid, the prospects that would change hands, the $250M & see if I can't do better. In WAR/$ terms, Abreu probably projects to outperform Bryce Harper and Mookie Betts, let alone Trout. But that's just to say that this isn't really the relevant comparison. The question is: do you take Mike Trout over whatever you can get for the same amount of spending on free agents?
I'd say it depends on how much of his contract the Angels are willing to eat. If they eat none of his contract, then I don't entertain the possibility for a second. If they eat all of his contract, then that's obviously a no-brainer. So the question becomes: at what amount of Angels salary-eating does it become worthwhile?
If the Sox can address the RH slugger gap and improve on defense by spending on free agents, that is of course better than trading players to get the same. In my opinion, if the Angels eat half of the contract, I would try to get it done. But yeah, spend in free agency first if possible.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 19, 2023 22:05:59 GMT -5
If ZIPS projects Trout at 15 WAR over the next 7 years, are you saying ZIPS is being ridiculous or that it is ridiculous to expect for 15 WAR from Abreu? This has probably been mentioned earlier, but at age 22 Phil Planter his .331 .420 .615 1.034 for 2.2 bWAR in 53 games after hitting .305 .438 .557 .995 in AAA. He came in 8th in the ROY. He played 8 years and totaled 2.3 bWAR. (He had 1.7 for SD at age 24 when he hit 34 hrs., but often had negative WAR) Thinking Abreu MAY have 15 WAR over the next 7 years is reasonable. Thinking he WILL is not. ….likewise Trout WILL not get 15 WAR, if his back gives out and he retires, which absolutely could happen.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,108
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Post by jimoh on Oct 20, 2023 6:22:43 GMT -5
This has probably been mentioned earlier, but at age 22 Phil Planter his .331 .420 .615 1.034 for 2.2 bWAR in 53 games after hitting .305 .438 .557 .995 in AAA. He came in 8th in the ROY. He played 8 years and totaled 2.3 bWAR. (He had 1.7 for SD at age 24 when he hit 34 hrs., but often had negative WAR) Thinking Abreu MAY have 15 WAR over the next 7 years is reasonable. Thinking he WILL is not. ….likewise Trout WILL not get 15 WAR, if his back gives out and he retires, which absolutely could happen. "WILL... if...; could happen" = may, not will.
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Post by asm19 on Oct 20, 2023 8:36:43 GMT -5
So far we have seen arguments for "bold" and "unreasonable." Neither of those adjectives are the same as "ridiculous." Personally, I'll let you keep Mike Trout. I'll take the kid, the prospects that would change hands, the $250M & see if I can't do better. In WAR/$ terms, Abreu probably projects to outperform Bryce Harper and Mookie Betts, let alone Trout. But that's just to say that this isn't really the relevant comparison. The question is: do you take Mike Trout over whatever you can get for the same amount of spending on free agents?
I'd say it depends on how much of his contract the Angels are willing to eat. If they eat none of his contract, then I don't entertain the possibility for a second. If they eat all of his contract, then that's obviously a no-brainer. So the question becomes: at what amount of Angels salary-eating does it become worthwhile?
So it's close to like 7 years for 250 mil in terms of the rest of Trout's current contract. Can you reasonably get 3-4 years (age 32, 33, 34, 35?) seasons of a diminished but still good Mike Trout? I dunno, if the Angels ate enough to make it like a 7 year 150/175 mil deal (22-25 AAV), I think I'd have that conversation? But I'm not sure the Angels would even want to do that, money aside - when Shohei leaves they're going to need someone to put on jerseys and sell tickets.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Oct 20, 2023 8:55:50 GMT -5
If you're the Angels and you're trading Trout, how do you ever sell that to your fanbase especially when eating a lot of the money? Especially the same year your (presumingly) lose Ohtani?
They're going to want a lot for him. I think he stays. He'd have a lot more trade value if he recovers and has a monster year.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Oct 20, 2023 11:52:55 GMT -5
If you're the Angels and you're trading Trout, how do you ever sell that to your fanbase especially when eating a lot of the money? Especially the same year your (presumingly) lose Ohtani? They're going to want a lot for him. I think he stays. He'd have a lot more trade value if he recovers and has a monster year. I think it’s funny that the Angels are more like an amusement park than a baseball org. It’s always about the fans loving their stars/attendance and never about the team being good or being set up for long term success. They operate that way too. It’s just a colossal failure over there year after year. It would be miserable following them.
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Post by bluechip on Oct 20, 2023 12:01:48 GMT -5
If you're the Angels and you're trading Trout, how do you ever sell that to your fanbase especially when eating a lot of the money? Especially the same year your (presumingly) lose Ohtani? They're going to want a lot for him. I think he stays. He'd have a lot more trade value if he recovers and has a monster year. I think it’s funny that the Angels are more like an amusement park than a baseball org. It’s always about the fans loving their stars/attendance and never about the team being good or being set up for long term success. They operate that way too. It’s just a colossal failure over there year after year. It would be miserable following them. That’s a good point. They won it all in 2002 with a solid but not spectacular line up (for that period), but great defense and a lights out bullpen. The Rally Monkey was most marketed part of that team. Then they started bringing in high profile expensive stars in vVlad Guerrero, Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and have become less and less competitive.
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Post by asm19 on Oct 30, 2023 10:46:31 GMT -5
Might be a bit outside the box - but if Sox expect Teel to rise quickly (I know SP has his ETA as early 2025), would it make sense to shop a toolsy Wong (and his 5 years of team control) & see how other teams value him in a potential trade? You could always sign a replacement for a year in free agency.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 30, 2023 11:07:16 GMT -5
Might be a bit outside the box - but if Sox expect Teel to rise quickly (I know SP has his ETA as early 2025), would it make sense to shop a toolsy Wong (and his 5 years of team control) & see how other teams value him in a potential trade? You could always sign a replacement for a year in free agency. To me, no not really. Sure listen to offers but they have enough holes without opening another hole at C. The Wong Mcguire combo costs like 3M, just roll with them until Teel is ready. Even if Teel is up sooner than later which is entirely possible they can jettison McGuire and have a Wong/Teel combo for a few years which hopefully would turn C from about average to a real strength.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 30, 2023 11:36:24 GMT -5
Might be a bit outside the box - but if Sox expect Teel to rise quickly (I know SP has his ETA as early 2025), would it make sense to shop a toolsy Wong (and his 5 years of team control) & see how other teams value him in a potential trade? You could always sign a replacement for a year in free agency. Wong is definitely a hold for me. 1. I don't think they're getting other teams buying him as a starter, at least not a first division type, so I don't think it's going to be an overpay situation. 2a. If Wong continues to play like a starter and Teel moves quickly, he'll be even more tradable in a year. 2b. If Wong continues to play like a starter and Teel struggles or fizzles, then he's kind of a vital part of the team. 3. If Wong regresses a bit, then he's still a useful and cheap backup catcher, which the team will need. 4. Impressive as Teel looked, counting on a catcher to be ready quickly is generally foolish.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 30, 2023 12:22:15 GMT -5
Yeah Wong strikes me as the transition catcher in that scenario who can slide into a Solid Backup (TM) role once Teel is ready if that's how it goes. You'd be trading him to then go get someone like him.
Catcher is the one area they really don't need to address, save maybe for having a better third catcher option this year than they did last year.
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