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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Sept 19, 2023 2:41:50 GMT -5
I wanted to create a new thread that centers around predicting the 2024 Opening Day roster. I’m not sure if this thread already exists, and I know a lineup thread exists but I wanted a spot to dump all my thoughts on the next roster and signings and such.
To start this exercise, I took a look at the Red Sox Payroll twitter account and saw that his numbers for next year currently have us at roughly $165 million including the money to be paid out in arbitration and on contract renewals. These numbers assume that Justin Turner, Corey Kluber, and Joely Rodriguez options are not picked up or exercised in JT’s case. That would give us nearly $70 million before hitting the luxury tax, and based on what ownership has indicated in recent weeks, especially in Chaim Bloom’s departure news conference, it seems they’ll go over. I doubt they want to blow past it too far, so let’s call it $13 million over which brings us to $250 million in payroll and roughly $83 million to spend this off-season.
The Red Sox have a pretty solid foundation to build off of here, and despite the results this season, I think this team is better than its record. The main issue has been starting pitching, which has trickled down to the rest of the team, hurting the bullpen, putting the team behind early in games. Defense is also a major issue. The lineup has been hit or miss, and improving it this off-season won’t be easy as the free agent hitting market is bad.
Here’s my hopeful guess at what we could expect next season, assuming the Red Sox are willing to seriously break out the checkbook, which seems fairly likely based on Sam Kennedy’s comments and Bloom’s firing.
Lineup:
Duran - CF Yoshida - LF Hoskins - DH Devers- 3B Casas- 1B Story - SS Abreu - RF Urias - 2B Wong - C
This lineup obviously looks quite similar to this season’s with some notable exceptions. First, no Turner, he has been replaced with Hoskins. JT was probably the MVP of the season, but I think he’ll be getting a better contract from another team this off-season, and I think Hoskins could give this team some serious right handed thump it’s missing. He’s coming off a major injury, and as a right handed power bat that doesn’t play great defense, I do not expect that to be a terribly expensive contract. Last year, Jose Abreu, coming off a better season, got 40/2. I think Hoskins could be acquired for 12-15/1 with a player option as a “prove you’re healthy” contract. Hoskins can also play some 1B and LF to spell Casas or Yoshida. This will allow Yoshida to DH more often and may help preserve him throughout the season. Alex Verdugo is also gone, based mostly off the perception that the club has reached the end of its rope with the player. It has not been a great relationship, and I think the signs are pointing towards his being traded this off-season, which would clear up some extra money. He will be replaced by Abreu, hurting the defense, but not losing much on the offensive side (possibly improving it).
Bench:
Refsynder- OF/RHPH Reyes - 2B/SS McGuire - C Valdez - 2B/LHPH
I think this crew can hold down the pinch hitting and substitutions.
Rotation:
Yamamoto/Snell Gray/Nola/Montgomery Bello Pivetta Sale/Crawford
This is where the vast majority of the money will be going. The Sox need to sign a number one starting pitcher and a number two in order to compete next year. There are two “Aces” on the market and they are Yamamoto and Snell. I do not know what these contracts will look like because the numbers fluctuate throughout the year, but the Red Sox are in a position to shell out a long term, highly lucrative contract to one of those two. I think Yamamoto will get around 300 million when the bidding war is done, and the Red Sox should pay that number. Behind him, they need a second pitcher and I think Gray is an excellent choice. Other than one bad year in the Bronx, he’s been good to great every year. He’s entering his age 34 season, I expect he will use the Chris Bassitt deal as the starting point and could see him get around 5/100 when all is said and done. Pitching will be expensive this off-season, and it will require some overpays. Nola scares me and will likely be far more expensive than he’s worth, but he can be penciled in for a lot of innings. Montgomery would be a good option if Gray doesn’t work out. Pivetta has shown that he can still start, and should be given the opportunity, because he can eat a ton of innings as well. Sale is a lottery ticket if he’s healthy, and if not Crawford is a serviceable 5th starter.
Bullpen:
Jansen Martin Winckowski Schreiber Bernardino Murphy Whitlock Houck
I think this bullpen could be absolutely electric. Houck has not shown enough improvement in his mid to late game pitching, especially in the 3rd go around for the line-up. He should be converted into a 2-3 inning reliever who can come in in the middle innings and shut a line-up down on days the bullpen is short. Murphy has shown glimpses of being an effective pitcher, especially against lefties. Bryan Mata is out of options next year, so he will either need to replace one of these guys through injury or be traded. I expect an injury will take care of that concern by the time camp breaks in 2024.
First call-ups:
Rafaela - OF Hamilton - IF Mata - RHRP Robertson - RHRP Walter - LHRP/Starter Drohan?/Depth acquisition - Starter
Rafaela should begin next season in AAA, where he can more easily get playing time. He should be the first call up if any position player is injured, infield or outfield.
This roster is VERY similar to this year’s but with several high caliber additions that should make a huge change. Adding two front line starters should massively improve this team’s playoff odds. Assuming the two pitchers cost a combined $55 million and Hoskins costs around $15 million, that would keep us right around the $250 million mark for next year. Defense will be a question mark, but a full year of Story, Devers regression to his mean of defense (2022, -2 OAA), Casas improving (which he has this year), should lead to far better infield defense. The outfield will have to contend with Yoshida, Duran, and Abreu, which could be interesting.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,108
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Post by jimoh on Sept 19, 2023 5:36:08 GMT -5
[...] Lineup: Duran - CF Yoshida - LF Hoskins - DH Devers- 3B Casas- 1B Story - SS Abreu - RF Urias - 2B Wong - C This lineup obviously looks quite similar to this season’s with some notable exceptions. First, no Turner, he has been replaced with Hoskins. JT was probably the MVP of the season, but I think he’ll be getting a better contract from another team this off-season, and I think Hoskins could give this team some serious right handed thump it’s missing. He’s coming off a major injury, and as a right handed power bat that doesn’t play great defense, I do not expect that to be a terribly expensive contract. Last year, Jose Abreu, coming off a better season, got 40/2. I think Hoskins could be acquired for 12-15/1 with a player option as a “prove you’re healthy” contract. Hoskins can also play some 1B and LF to spell Casas or Yoshida. This will allow Yoshida to DH more often and may help preserve him throughout the season. Alex Verdugo is also gone, based mostly off the perception that the club has reached the end of its rope with the player. It has not been a great relationship, and I think the signs are pointing towards his being traded this off-season, which would clear up some extra money. He will be r eplaced by Abreu, hurting the defense, but not losing much on the offensive side (possibly improving it). [...] 1) I understand why people are wary of re-signing a player of Turner's age, but I don't know why people think he will get more somewhere else (on top of what the Sox owe him, a sunk cost). Other teams will know he's old too! And he's a perfect fit for the Red Sox, in terms of RHH bat, patience and power, Fenway swing, and his effect on other players. Plus the Red Sox do not have to be cheap next year, and can certainly afford to overpay for role players the next two years. I can see them moving on from Turner, but I don't see money as the cause. Why would other teams pay more? Plus it's easier to see them moving on if they sign no DH and move Masa there. 2) Thinking Abreu will come close to replacing Verdugo's offense in 2024 seems very optimistic. Maybe in 2025. But it seems likely that opposing teams will figure out a way to get him and (more easily) Rafaela out, and each will have to respond. Could be a long year.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 19, 2023 6:48:31 GMT -5
It's fun to fantasize but I'd prefer to wait on post season moves, trades, free agency, etc. to see how a potential roster shakes out.
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Post by bos834 on Sept 19, 2023 9:22:11 GMT -5
You have Mata as the first call up- how would that work? Isn't he out of options? If he does start the year in AAA, it would be my understanding he would have to clear waivers. I couldn't see them rushing to bring him up unless they want to keep him up.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 19, 2023 10:52:41 GMT -5
You have Mata as the first call up- how would that work? Isn't he out of options? If he does start the year in AAA, it would be my understanding he would have to clear waivers. I couldn't see them rushing to bring him up unless they want to keep him up. Agreed, IF Mata cleared waivers theRed Sox would not rush to bring him up…., but I doubt he clears waivers unless he is hurt.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 19, 2023 11:13:45 GMT -5
It's fun to fantasize but I'd prefer to wait on post season moves, trades, free agency, etc. to see how a potential roster shakes out. While I'm as anxious as anyone to see what this team looks like, we have a new, as yet unknown, POBO/POBBO (POBO sounds just too much like Po'Boy to me) pending. Given the way the last POBBOs left and the comments—such as they were—from the ownership group, this person will doubtless put his/her stamp on the team pretty quickly. Guessing what that will look like may be similar to picking an NCAA bracket. That said, if people are of the mind to forecast this, it should be an entertaining read.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Sept 19, 2023 11:14:36 GMT -5
You have Mata as the first call up- how would that work? Isn't he out of options? If he does start the year in AAA, it would be my understanding he would have to clear waivers. I couldn't see them rushing to bring him up unless they want to keep him up. Yes, I'm aware he's out of options. First call up just means "who's the first replacement when an injury happens?" I imagine there will be at least one injury to a bullpen arm in Spring Training, and the Red Sox will want to keep Mata by giving him a chance this year. If not, he's probably gone this off-season.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Sept 19, 2023 11:16:19 GMT -5
It's fun to fantasize but I'd prefer to wait on post season moves, trades, free agency, etc. to see how a potential roster shakes out. That's the point of the thread though? I wanted to predict what the team could look like based on the recent comments from ownership on their goal to win championships and the things this team clearly needs.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Sept 19, 2023 11:21:35 GMT -5
[...] Lineup: Duran - CF Yoshida - LF Hoskins - DH Devers- 3B Casas- 1B Story - SS Abreu - RF Urias - 2B Wong - C This lineup obviously looks quite similar to this season’s with some notable exceptions. First, no Turner, he has been replaced with Hoskins. JT was probably the MVP of the season, but I think he’ll be getting a better contract from another team this off-season, and I think Hoskins could give this team some serious right handed thump it’s missing. He’s coming off a major injury, and as a right handed power bat that doesn’t play great defense, I do not expect that to be a terribly expensive contract. Last year, Jose Abreu, coming off a better season, got 40/2. I think Hoskins could be acquired for 12-15/1 with a player option as a “prove you’re healthy” contract. Hoskins can also play some 1B and LF to spell Casas or Yoshida. This will allow Yoshida to DH more often and may help preserve him throughout the season. Alex Verdugo is also gone, based mostly off the perception that the club has reached the end of its rope with the player. It has not been a great relationship, and I think the signs are pointing towards his being traded this off-season, which would clear up some extra money. He will be r eplaced by Abreu, hurting the defense, but not losing much on the offensive side (possibly improving it). [...] 1) I understand why people are wary of re-signing a player of Turner's age, but I don't know why people think he will get more somewhere else (on top of what the Sox owe him, a sunk cost). Other teams will know he's old too! And he's a perfect fit for the Red Sox, in terms of RHH bat, patience and power, Fenway swing, and his effect on other players. Plus the Red Sox do not have to be cheap next year, and can certainly afford to overpay for role players the next two years. I can see them moving on from Turner, but I don't see money as the cause. Why would other teams pay more? Plus it's easier to see them moving on if they sign no DH and move Masa there. 2) Thinking Abreu will come close to replacing Verdugo's offense in 2024 seems very optimistic. Maybe in 2025. But it seems likely that opposing teams will figure out a way to get him and (more easily) Rafaela out, and each will have to respond. Could be a long year. I expect a team to overpay for his production, not by an incredible amount, but by more than I'd want the Red Sox to pay to a DH-only. I don't think Turner can play the field very reliably, and I'd rather have a guy who can split some time between first base and left field to give other players some time off when needed. That being said, if the Sox bring Turner back on a not too terribly expensive deal, I'll still be very pleased. I also think this lineup has the potential to be very patient, with Casa, Yoshida, and Abreu all showing they can work a walk consistently.
Alex Verdugo is currently a league average bat, with a .760 OPS and 102 OPS+. I think it's absolutely likely that Abreu can match that, and go beyond it. He has already shown excellent plate discipline, ability to go the other way, and some good power. Small sample size, yes, but his (unqualified) numbers on Baseball Savant are excellent.
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Post by bos834 on Sept 19, 2023 11:47:34 GMT -5
You have Mata as the first call up- how would that work? Isn't he out of options? If he does start the year in AAA, it would be my understanding he would have to clear waivers. I couldn't see them rushing to bring him up unless they want to keep him up. Yes, I'm aware he's out of options. First call up just means "who's the first replacement when an injury happens?" I imagine there will be at least one injury to a bullpen arm in Spring Training, and the Red Sox will want to keep Mata by giving him a chance this year. If not, he's probably gone this off-season. The problem is if he clears waivers, and you bring him up to replace someone for 2 weeks and shows some flashes, it will be impossible to get him back down as he would have to go through waivers. If he starts the year in AAA, I don't believe they bring him up for the first injured pitcher, unless they envision him staying up. You mention Drohan as well. Will be interesting to see how he is handled. If you asked me in March, I would have thought he'd be on the 26 next year for sure. Now does he top out in AAA?
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Sept 19, 2023 12:02:33 GMT -5
Yes, I'm aware he's out of options. First call up just means "who's the first replacement when an injury happens?" I imagine there will be at least one injury to a bullpen arm in Spring Training, and the Red Sox will want to keep Mata by giving him a chance this year. If not, he's probably gone this off-season. The problem is if he clears waivers, and you bring him up to replace someone for 2 weeks and shows some flashes, it will be impossible to get him back down as he would have to go through waivers. If he starts the year in AAA, I don't believe they bring him up for the first injured pitcher, unless they envision him staying up. You mention Drohan as well. Will be interesting to see how he is handled. If you asked me in March, I would have thought he'd be on the 26 next year for sure. Now does he top out in AAA? No, I'm saying that Mata could break camp with the team, if there is an injury in ST. Not being sent down, but breaking with the team if they think he can handle Big League hitters and don't want to lose him on waivers.
I only mention Drohan because I'm not sure who else could start for the team in AAA at this time.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 19, 2023 12:10:13 GMT -5
I am skeptical that someone would claim Mata. Everyone's going to have a chance to give that spot to plenty of pitchers that have options and got AAA hitters out this year.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 19, 2023 12:15:59 GMT -5
I'm not going to declare that the ship has sailed on Mata but he's also not someone that I think they will miss in the near future if he were to get claimed. Wouldn't surprise me if he's removed from the 40 man this offseason. Maybe he gets healthy at some point and puts up some good seasons out of the pen somewhere but I just don't see it happening in the next year or two.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 19, 2023 12:27:35 GMT -5
I'll dodge work:
C - Wong 1B - Casas 2B - Urias 3B - Devers SS - Story LF - Duran CF - Kiermaier RF - Verdugo DH - Yoshida
Bench - McGuire, Refsnyder, Reyes, Duvall
SP - Bello SP - Sale SP - Pivetta SP - Yamamoto SP - Ryu SP - Crawford
Bullpen - Jansen, Martin, Whitlock, Winckowski, Houck, Schreiber, Bernardino
I didn't check where this would put us payroll wise but my best guess comfortably over. Most likely there will be some trades here, specifically I think they'll sign one starting pitcher and trade for another (they have a lot of controlled good pitchers in Winckowski/Murphy/Crawford/Houck/Whitlock, turn that into something, and I think one of Abreu/Verdugo/Duran/Yoshida gets moved), but predicting who they get in a trade is too hard.
I like fixing the defense with Kiermaier, Rafaela will find his way up through injury to somebody soon enough.
Why Ryu? I think he's pretty good and will come at a discount and I'm skeptical they sign two of the top tier SP types. Wouldn't be shocked if they went like Montgomery/Giolito or something though.
People will complain that there isn't enough righty power here, to that I say the team will not be flawless but I'm generally okay with where this will leave their offense against lefties.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Sept 19, 2023 13:04:12 GMT -5
I am skeptical that someone would claim Mata. Everyone's going to have a chance to give that spot to plenty of pitchers that have options and got AAA hitters out this year. I think it's a no brainer for a team like the A's or Royals. We're talking a 24 year old with a bad injury history, but who throws upper 90's with a solid slider. He'd cost no prospects and around $750,000. Zero chance he'd clear waivers.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Sept 19, 2023 13:06:25 GMT -5
I'll dodge work: C - Wong 1B - Casas 2B - Urias 3B - Devers SS - Story LF - Duran CF - Kiermaier RF - Verdugo DH - Yoshida Bench - McGuire, Refsnyder, Reyes, Duvall SP - Bello SP - Sale SP - Pivetta SP - Yamamoto SP - Ryu SP - Crawford Bullpen - Jansen, Martin, Whitlock, Winckowski, Houck, Schreiber, Bernardino I didn't check where this would put us payroll wise but my best guess comfortably over. Most likely there will be some trades here, specifically I think they'll sign one starting pitcher and trade for another (they have a lot of controlled good pitchers in Winckowski/Murphy/Crawford/Houck/Whitlock, turn that into something, and I think one of Abreu/Verdugo/Duran/Yoshida gets moved), but predicting who they get in a trade is too hard. I like fixing the defense with Kiermaier, Rafaela will find his way up through injury to somebody soon enough. Why Ryu? I think he's pretty good and will come at a discount and I'm skeptical they sign two of the top tier SP types. Wouldn't be shocked if they went like Montgomery/Giolito or something though. People will complain that there isn't enough righty power here, to that I say the team will not be flawless but I'm generally okay with where this will leave their offense against lefties. I like the Ryu pick as a 3-4 option, but I do hope they'll shoot higher. They have money to spend, lots of it, and Sale's contract expires after next year, so you've got another roughly 27 million coming off. I didn't want to predict trades too much because they're impossible to predict, I just feel like Verdugo is a goner based on the ruffling of Cora's feathers.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 19, 2023 13:18:37 GMT -5
Hard to predict that we’ll sign Yamamoto when every team in baseball is rumored to be interested in him.
The Hoskins and Ryu ideas from a couple of posters in this thread are interesting to me. I do think the Sox will continue to use Yoshida in LF especially at home, so I was thinking I’d want Turner back, but Hoskins could be a really nice fit here too. Ryu is hurt a lot and is already 36 but would give you good depth and won’t command a big deal. If they’re going to be over the luxury tax anyway, these are guys I think give you some upside at their projected price points.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 19, 2023 14:13:25 GMT -5
Hard to predict that we’ll sign Yamamoto when every team in baseball is rumored to be interested in him.
The Hoskins and Ryu ideas from a couple of posters in this thread are interesting to me. I do think the Sox will continue to use Yoshida in LF especially at home, so I was thinking I’d want Turner back, but Hoskins could be a really nice fit here too. Ryu is hurt a lot and is already 36 but would give you good depth and won’t command a big deal. If they’re going to be over the luxury tax anyway, these are guys I think give you some upside at their projected price points. Agreed, I just wanted to pick specific names but essentially my thought is they sign one of the top tier starting pitchers (whether it's Yamamoto or Nola or Snell or Gray or whoever), and one a tier below where they think they might be able to get some extra value (or make a trade).
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 19, 2023 14:19:42 GMT -5
Hard to predict that we’ll sign Yamamoto when every team in baseball is rumored to be interested in him.
The Hoskins and Ryu ideas from a couple of posters in this thread are interesting to me. I do think the Sox will continue to use Yoshida in LF especially at home, so I was thinking I’d want Turner back, but Hoskins could be a really nice fit here too. Ryu is hurt a lot and is already 36 but would give you good depth and won’t command a big deal. If they’re going to be over the luxury tax anyway, these are guys I think give you some upside at their projected price points. Agreed, I just wanted to pick specific names but essentially my thought is they sign one of the top tier starting pitchers (whether it's Yamamoto or Nola or Snell or Gray or whoever), and one a tier below where they think they might be able to get some extra value (or make a trade). Before Bloom got fired I was pretty confident that it would be Montgomery (because of the lack of a QO) and someone less exciting, but I can see whoever the new guy is making a bigger splash now. I think I’d prefer to stay away from Snell with his high BB% and LOB% this year, but we’ll see…
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Sept 19, 2023 14:34:14 GMT -5
Any thoughts about what position or level of performer the Sox could get back in a Verdugo deal ? I would want a return that becomes a member of the 26 man in 2024. Someone who makes the team over all better than it would be with him. If the Yankee deal for Clarke Scmidt really almost happened is that what we can expect ? I hope not, Schmidt averages less than 5 innings/start, we already have enough of those guys ?
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 19, 2023 14:42:07 GMT -5
Verdugo is looking like 2 WAR for $10 million, so there's a few million in surplus value there. Four years of Clarke Schmidt is not a realistic return. Hunter Renfroe's trade last year is a pretty close analogue, the Brewers got a couple guys would be in the neighborhood of 30th in this system.
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Post by asm19 on Sept 19, 2023 15:01:37 GMT -5
Verdugo is looking like 2 WAR for $10 million, so there's a few million in surplus value there. Four years of Clarke Schmidt is not a realistic return. Hunter Renfroe's trade last year is a pretty close analogue, the Brewers got a couple guys would be in the neighborhood of 30th in this system. Before entertaining him in every hypothetical trade this offseason, I'd love to know what Dugie's trade value is and if that's the realistic comp... I wonder if they reach the same decision they seem to have reached multiple times where you're better off just keeping him. He'll play good defense and hit some - there's nothing wrong with that. If an Alex Verdugo-clone was on another team, and we were to acquire him to this offseason with the same expiring deal, what would we offer? That's likely the answer to what another team is willing to send back.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 19, 2023 15:02:42 GMT -5
Any thoughts about what position or level of performer the Sox could get back in a Verdugo deal ? I would want a return that becomes a member of the 26 man in 2024. Someone who makes the team over all better than it would be with him. If the Yankee deal for Clarke Scmidt really almost happened is that what we can expect ? I hope not, Schmidt averages less than 5 innings/start, we already have enough of those guys ? Its gonna take a lot more than a year of Alex Verdugo to get a six-inning starter who isn’t total garbage. There are only 45 pitchers who qualify for the ERA title right now, it’s hard to find guys who can eat innings. I think Verdugo (like Duran) fits best as an MLB piece in a larger trade package for a real-deal number 3 type.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 19, 2023 15:04:45 GMT -5
Verdugo is looking like 2 WAR for $10 million, so there's a few million in surplus value there. Four years of Clarke Schmidt is not a realistic return. Hunter Renfroe's trade last year is a pretty close analogue, the Brewers got a couple guys would be in the neighborhood of 30th in this system. Before entertaining him in every hypothetical trade this offseason, I'd love to know what Dugie's trade value is and if that's the realistic comp... I wonder if they reach the same decision they seem to have reached multiple times where you're better off just keeping him. He'll play good defense and hit some - there's nothing wrong with that. If an Alex Verdugo-clone was on another team, and we were to acquire him to this offseason with the same expiring deal, what would we offer? That's likely the answer to what another team is willing to send back. This is what I had figured maybe a month or so ago, that chances are Verdugo offers more value to the 2024 Red Sox than he will bring back in a trade. However with some of the recent issues Cora/the team have seemingly been having with his attitude they might just ship him out for a meager package to get him out of the clubhouse and move on. That being said my guess is that Verdugo is going to be the opening day RF but I am not as convinced of that as I was right after the deadline.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Sept 19, 2023 15:18:10 GMT -5
Verdugo is looking like 2 WAR for $10 million, so there's a few million in surplus value there. Four years of Clarke Schmidt is not a realistic return. Hunter Renfroe's trade last year is a pretty close analogue, the Brewers got a couple guys would be in the neighborhood of 30th in this system. So, in order to up the return to a 26 man caliber player could likely require adding prospects to the package due to Dugie only having one pre FA season left. Part of a bigger deal for a #2/#3 starter. I think/hope most here would recognize that two #30 ish prospects is simply a dump that gains no real value. It may end up better to wait until next trade deadline to be sure Abreu is the solution for RF and/or a team may have a heighten need for Verdugo.
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