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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
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Post by incandenza on Oct 30, 2023 12:38:12 GMT -5
I feel like people keep wanting to come up with creative trade ideas for this team, which isn't a bad idea in the abstract, but then they inevitably keep landing on decent-but-not-great cost-controlled players as the only viable trade chips on the roster, and the thing is that the Red Sox need players like that as much as anyone.
Even the projected rosters page here seems to be assuming a Verdugo trade, which might be based on inside information, but as near as I can tell if they trade Verdugo they'll just need to replace him with another Verdugo-type player, who would only be more expensive on the FA market.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 30, 2023 12:44:31 GMT -5
I feel like people keep wanting to come up with creative trade ideas for this team, which isn't a bad idea in the abstract, but then they inevitably keep landing on decent-but-not-great cost-controlled players as the only viable trade chips on the roster, and the thing is that the Red Sox need players like that as much as anyone. Even the projected rosters page here seems to be assuming a Verdugo trade, which might be based on inside information, but as near as I can tell if they trade Verdugo they'll just need to replace him with another Verdugo-type player, who would only be more expensive on the FA market.I'm not advocating for a Verdugo trade but I'm also not sure they'd need to replace him with another Verdugo-type player. It depends on what they think of Abreu, not saying it's something I'd be all on board for but if they think Abreu is ready to be the LHH RF in a platoon then trading Verdugo makes some sense. I'm not sold on Abreu being ready for that type of role yet based solely off a month or two but he did show some solid upside.
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Post by asm19 on Oct 30, 2023 13:03:44 GMT -5
I feel like people keep wanting to come up with creative trade ideas for this team, which isn't a bad idea in the abstract, but then they inevitably keep landing on decent-but-not-great cost-controlled players as the only viable trade chips on the roster, and the thing is that the Red Sox need players like that as much as anyone.Even the projected rosters page here seems to be assuming a Verdugo trade, which might be based on inside information, but as near as I can tell if they trade Verdugo they'll just need to replace him with another Verdugo-type player, who would only be more expensive on the FA market. I guess what's tough is if you try to workshop trade ideas for this team, if 1) the "Young Studs" (TM) are generally off the table (Casas, Bello, Mayer, Anthony, Bleis?) because you want to hold onto young talent that's going to be really good, and 2) other MLB teams aren't really salivating over low-minors prospects in trades as has been the case last year or two - what else are you supposed to trade? That's where you end up with like Nick Yorke/Verdugo in like every proposed trade haha What will be interesting is if Chaim Bloom's alleged difficulties with negotiating ("asked for too much", "other teams hated to see his name pop up") changes the perspective on this. Like are we going to see more "normal" baseball trades (i.e. your #14 prospect and a PTBNL for a rental, what have you) now that someone else is pulling (or not pulling) the trigger? I wonder how Breslow changes this dynamic, if at all.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 30, 2023 13:09:07 GMT -5
I feel like people keep wanting to come up with creative trade ideas for this team, which isn't a bad idea in the abstract, but then they inevitably keep landing on decent-but-not-great cost-controlled players as the only viable trade chips on the roster, and the thing is that the Red Sox need players like that as much as anyone. Even the projected rosters page here seems to be assuming a Verdugo trade, which might be based on inside information, but as near as I can tell if they trade Verdugo they'll just need to replace him with another Verdugo-type player, who would only be more expensive on the FA market. The reason you trade Verdugo is because he's a free agent at the end of the season. If you don't plan to re-sign him, you're going to get a lot more for him in a trade now than at the deadline.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 30, 2023 13:20:54 GMT -5
I feel like people keep wanting to come up with creative trade ideas for this team, which isn't a bad idea in the abstract, but then they inevitably keep landing on decent-but-not-great cost-controlled players as the only viable trade chips on the roster, and the thing is that the Red Sox need players like that as much as anyone. Even the projected rosters page here seems to be assuming a Verdugo trade, which might be based on inside information, but as near as I can tell if they trade Verdugo they'll just need to replace him with another Verdugo-type player, who would only be more expensive on the FA market. The reason you trade Verdugo is because he's a free agent at the end of the season. If you don't plan to re-sign him, you're going to get a lot more for him in a trade now than at the deadline. I'm always sort of confused by this logic: it's true they could get something for him, whereas he would just leave "for nothing" as a free agent after this year if they don't trade him. But if they do trade him then they have a Verdugo-sized hole on the roster which they'll have to fill somehow. And that would mean giving away value (through trade or FA spending) - probably as much value as they'd get in return for Verdugo, in fact.
To the extent that he has value, it's because he'll cost $9 million and projects to be worth more than that. But that would also be the reason for the Red Sox to keep him!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 30, 2023 13:22:25 GMT -5
The reason you trade Verdugo is because he's a free agent at the end of the season. If you don't plan to re-sign him, you're going to get a lot more for him in a trade now than at the deadline. I'm always sort of confused by this logic: it's true they could get something for him, whereas he would just leave "for nothing" as a free agent after this year if they don't trade him. But if they do trade him then they have a Verdugo-sized hole on the roster which they'll have to fill somehow. And that would mean giving away value (through trade or FA spending) - probably as much value as they'd get in return for Verdugo, in fact. To the extent that he has value, it's because he'll cost $9 million and projects to be worth more than that. But that would also be the reason for the Red Sox to keep him!
It is possible that Abreu can be a league average offensive player with a comparable glove to Verdugo
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Post by incandenza on Oct 30, 2023 13:25:07 GMT -5
I feel like people keep wanting to come up with creative trade ideas for this team, which isn't a bad idea in the abstract, but then they inevitably keep landing on decent-but-not-great cost-controlled players as the only viable trade chips on the roster, and the thing is that the Red Sox need players like that as much as anyone.Even the projected rosters page here seems to be assuming a Verdugo trade, which might be based on inside information, but as near as I can tell if they trade Verdugo they'll just need to replace him with another Verdugo-type player, who would only be more expensive on the FA market. I guess what's tough is if you try to workshop trade ideas for this team, if 1) the "Young Studs" (TM) are generally off the table (Casas, Bello, Mayer, Anthony, Bleis?) because you want to hold onto young talent that's going to be really good, and 2) other MLB teams aren't really salivating over low-minors prospects in trades as has been the case last year or two - what else are you supposed to trade? That's where you end up with like Nick Yorke/Verdugo in like every proposed trade haha ... Yeah, I think this is pretty much the situation! The team has been in a place for a couple years where the young stars coming up happen fit holes on the major league roster, so it makes more sense just to keep them rather than trading them away. And in general the team has had a dearth of young cheap talent, so again it makes more sense to accumulate it than trade it away.
In retrospect it wouldn't have been such a bad idea to sign Freeman (who I think they were in on) and trade Casas for pitching or something, but that ship sailed long ago. And now the FA options are super weak so a gambit like that (say, signing a stud outfielder and trading Anthony) wouldn't really work.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 30, 2023 13:26:18 GMT -5
I'm always sort of confused by this logic: it's true they could get something for him, whereas he would just leave "for nothing" as a free agent after this year if they don't trade him. But if they do trade him then they have a Verdugo-sized hole on the roster which they'll have to fill somehow. And that would mean giving away value (through trade or FA spending) - probably as much value as they'd get in return for Verdugo, in fact. To the extent that he has value, it's because he'll cost $9 million and projects to be worth more than that. But that would also be the reason for the Red Sox to keep him!
It is possible that Abreu can be a league average offensive player with a comparable glove to Verdugo Possible, yes - but it would be irresponsible to count on it. Another benefit of keeping Verdugo around for a year is it would give them time to see what Abreu can be.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 30, 2023 13:40:34 GMT -5
It is possible that Abreu can be a league average offensive player with a comparable glove to Verdugo Possible, yes - but it would be irresponsible to count on it. Another benefit of keeping Verdugo around for a year is it would give them time to see what Abreu can be. Well the rest of the context is that OF/DH is already in flux with Turner a few agent, so it's not necessarily a 1-for-1 swap. I agree with you that moving Verdugo to acquire Verdugo-adjace doesn't make a ton of sense unless you're getting a lot of value in the trade compared to the acquisition cost of the replacement.
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Post by scottysmalls on Oct 30, 2023 13:55:56 GMT -5
I don't think it's crazy to trade Verdugo and sign Kiermaier or something. You could make the case there's a better roster fit, maybe you sign Kiermaier for 2 years instead of 1, and you get some value back for Verdugo, or maybe you're willing to pay the FA premium in a year they're going over the tax anyways in exchange for the value they get in the Verdugo trade. MLB team aligns a little better even if the overall talent level is the same and you've added value elsewhere.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 30, 2023 14:03:21 GMT -5
It is possible that Abreu can be a league average offensive player with a comparable glove to Verdugo Possible, yes - but it would be irresponsible to count on it. Another benefit of keeping Verdugo around for a year is it would give them time to see what Abreu can be. No you cant count on it, but the bar to replace Verdugo isnt that high. Hes a league average offensive player and a good defender. Abreu is likely a .230ish hitter with 20 HR pop and probably draws 50 - 65 walks so that the OPS+ is probably between 90 - 100. For Verdugo's money, you can probably get a needed asset and not suffer much of a downgrade if any. Abreu certainly isnt the hitter Verdugo is, but he might be as good an offensive player or in the neighborhood anyways a d he should be able to handle RF at least adequately. I'd like to see Duvall return to hedge their bets. Let's see if they cam get something they can use for Verdugo.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 30, 2023 14:13:02 GMT -5
Possible, yes - but it would be irresponsible to count on it. Another benefit of keeping Verdugo around for a year is it would give them time to see what Abreu can be. No you cant count on it, but the bar to replace Versugo isnt that high. Hes a league average offensive player and a good defender. Abreu is likely a .230ish hitter with 20 HR pop and probably draws 50 - 65 walks so that the OPS+ is probably between 90 - 100. For Verdugo's money, you can probably get a needed asset and not suffer much of a downgrade if any.Abreu certainly isnt the hitter Verdugo is, but he might be as good an offensive player or in the neighborhood anyways a d he should be able to handle RF at least adequately. I'd like to see Duvall return to hedge their bets. Let's see if they cam get something they can use for Verdugo. There's certainly the talent aspect of it, if they can trade Verdugo for a real asset(s) then by all means go for it. He's relatively replaceable and perhaps they have an in-house replacement ready right now in Abreu, so overall I agree with pretty much everything said here. On the flipside I don't think anyone is advocating for dumping Verdugo for a low leverage bullpen arm, if the value isn't there then just hold on to him. They can always deal him at the deadline if they're out of it or heck maybe Verdugo plays well enough to merit a QO, though I doubt it. The other thing with Verdugo I'm keeping in mind is, how much rope does he have left with Cora? There seemed to be some butting of heads between the two during the season. Maybe it's nothing but perhaps it's to the point where a fresh start might just be best for both sides here.
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Post by pappyman99 on Oct 30, 2023 14:45:05 GMT -5
I’m trading Houck/duran/Verdugo/ Pivetta if it makes sense
All for trading Yoshi if there is someone out there to take him
In FA if we signed Gray to a 3 year deal (keep the years short even it it is a higher AAV)
Then trade something like Bleis, Houck, Duran for Corbin Burnes with the obvious full intent to resign him
You are looking at at the below as a strong rotation
Burnes Sale Gray Bello Crawford
I’d try and trade Yoshida and Drohan to the Padres for Cronenworth. Assuming they trade Soto away they get long term salary relief for a short term hit but pick a prospect up
The lineup is more tricky. I guess sign Teoscar Hernandez for LF if it’s a 3 year deal or less and try and sign Garver for a 2 year deal.
Then basically have Abreu as a super 4th outfielder for all 3 spots.
Rafaela CF Verdugo RF Devers 3B Hernandez LF Casas 1B Garver DH Cronenworth 2B Story SS Wong C
Seems like a very weak lineup which is why it might be more prudent to use trade resources for soto rather than Burnes
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Post by kwodes on Oct 30, 2023 14:48:22 GMT -5
I don't think it's crazy to trade Verdugo and sign Kiermaier or something. You could make the case there's a better roster fit, maybe you sign Kiermaier for 2 years instead of 1, and you get some value back for Verdugo, or maybe you're willing to pay the FA premium in a year they're going over the tax anyways in exchange for the value they get in the Verdugo trade. MLB team aligns a little better even if the overall talent level is the same and you've added value elsewhere. I would say resign Duvall over keirmaier, but I agree with your thought. Already have yoshi, Duran, abreu as lefty OF options with refsnyder, rafaela, Duvall as righty options. Trade Verdugo for some pitching or a 2nd baseman then sign Duvall would be my thought.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,108
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Post by jimoh on Oct 30, 2023 15:10:05 GMT -5
Cronenworth would bring a nice glove to 2b but do you want to pay for that steadily declining bat through 2030?
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 30, 2023 15:32:15 GMT -5
Cronenworth would bring a nice glove to 2b but do you want to pay for that steadily declining bat through 2030? Yea I don't think croenworth contract is any better than Yoshidas. It's probably worse. I had thought he'd be a good target at one point but then I saw the extension the Padres gave him. I'd pass on him on that deal.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 30, 2023 15:44:13 GMT -5
It's also nice for the manager to have a lefty/righty catching combo.
Given that the Red Sox other legitimate right-handed catching prospects are in A-ball, with their upper-minors prospects (Hickey and Scott) both left-handed (and unlikely to stick at catcher full-time), Wong seems like a guy the team should keep for the next 2-3 years (or longer). Hope to see Teel/Wong for a long time.
(in reference to the catcher and trading Wong conversation)
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Post by pappyman99 on Oct 30, 2023 17:14:53 GMT -5
Cronenworth would bring a nice glove to 2b but do you want to pay for that steadily declining bat through 2030? It would be much easier to move or eat even in 2028 as he is only 11 million against the luxury tax I actually think he has an okay shot to put up A 3 WAR season or two over the next 6 years and is a way better fit But perhaps the bigger deal he should be a part of would be something like Yoshida, Houck, Bleis, and Duran for Soto and Cronenworth? More prone to move Bleis given the injury and he is still a lottery ticket, but a damn good one Then focus the fa on an SP and trying to somehow find a right handed power bat to split Soto and Devers? Sign Garver for DH? And Duvall for CF and bench? Soto LF Garver DH Devers 3B Story SS Casas 1B Duvall CF Verdugo RF Wong C Cronenworth 2B But then note sure what you do with Rafaela/Abreu I mean in theory Verdugo and Duvall only around 1 more year so they are still needed within the organization long term
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 31, 2023 8:48:11 GMT -5
Unfortunately, the time to trade Verdugo was last deadline. His value has cratered since then. If he’s traded, it won’t be for a useful piece in 2024, it will be for a pitching prospect that Breslow identifies as having untapped upside, which would be fine with me. I like the young depth in the OF and would be happy to put Verdugo’s projected salary into the YY/Nola fund.
Speaking of fixing pitching prospects, I don’t want to trade Houck and then watch someone else teach him how to get lefties out and turn him into a young CY candidate. Let’s see if Breslow can do that first.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Oct 31, 2023 11:59:14 GMT -5
If the numbers for Yamamoto and Gray are correct, this would allow the Red Sox to spend 51MM to revamp their rotation for next, saving them prospect capital to use on augmenting a lineup that needs a little help.
I am still advocating for an off-season of Yamamoto, Gray, and Rhys Hoskins.
YY Gray Bello Sale/Crawford Pivetta
Abreu - RF Devers - 3B Hoskins - LF/DH Casas - 1B Story - SS Yoshida - DH/LF Duran - CF Wong - C Valdez/Urias - 2B
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Post by scottysmalls on Oct 31, 2023 12:26:42 GMT -5
If the numbers for Yamamoto and Gray are correct, this would allow the Red Sox to spend 51MM to revamp their rotation for next, saving them prospect capital to use on augmenting a lineup that needs a little help. I am still advocating for an off-season of Yamamoto, Gray, and Rhys Hoskins. YY Gray Bello Sale/Crawford Pivetta Abreu - RF Devers - 3B Hoskins - LF/DH Casas - 1B Story - SS Yoshida - DH/LF Duran - CF Wong - C Valdez/Urias - 2B Hoskins is such a bad left fielder that I don't think he's playable there, especially coming off knee surgery. In this configuration you'd almost have to DH him and play Yoshida, who also is nearly unplayable in left, every day there. I don't think they can both be on the roster. You sacrifice Yoshida's defense if it means bringing in an Ohtani level talent, not a Hoskins level one.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Oct 31, 2023 12:34:27 GMT -5
If the numbers for Yamamoto and Gray are correct, this would allow the Red Sox to spend 51MM to revamp their rotation for next, saving them prospect capital to use on augmenting a lineup that needs a little help. I am still advocating for an off-season of Yamamoto, Gray, and Rhys Hoskins. YY Gray Bello Sale/Crawford Pivetta Abreu - RF Devers - 3B Hoskins - LF/DH Casas - 1B Story - SS Yoshida - DH/LF Duran - CF Wong - C Valdez/Urias - 2B Hoskins is such a bad left fielder that I don't think he's playable there, especially coming off knee surgery. In this configuration you'd almost have to DH him and play Yoshida, who also is nearly unplayable in left, every day there. I don't think they can both be on the roster. You sacrifice Yoshida's defense if it means bringing in an Ohtani level talent, not a Hoskins level one. I think the left field defense is a super overplayed issue. Red Sox defense was bad last year, so everyone who was bad defensively gets lumped together as garbage. In reality, Enrique Hernandez and a month of Devers forgetting how to field killed the Sox defensively. Yoshida was not good in left field, but calling him unplayable is silly. I do not care about left field defense and if Hoskins and Yoshida can platoon out there and provide good offensive production, that's excellent.
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Post by pappyman99 on Oct 31, 2023 12:47:54 GMT -5
I mean Yoshida put up a manny like defensive season in LF with not nearly the bat.
That is fairly unplayable
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 31, 2023 21:44:45 GMT -5
I hope they do something to improve the defense at a couple positions. CF, LF and 2B are the obvious candidates.
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Post by melvinhoggs on Oct 31, 2023 22:36:10 GMT -5
Hoskins is such a bad left fielder that I don't think he's playable there, especially coming off knee surgery. In this configuration you'd almost have to DH him and play Yoshida, who also is nearly unplayable in left, every day there. I don't think they can both be on the roster. You sacrifice Yoshida's defense if it means bringing in an Ohtani level talent, not a Hoskins level one. I think the left field defense is a super overplayed issue. Red Sox defense was bad last year, so everyone who was bad defensively gets lumped together as garbage. In reality, Enrique Hernandez and a month of Devers forgetting how to field killed the Sox defensively. Yoshida was not good in left field, but calling him unplayable is silly. I do not care about left field defense and if Hoskins and Yoshida can platoon out there and provide good offensive production, that's excellent. No... Yoshida also killed us defensively, no "lumping" required. Infielders always get more scrutiny because their errors/misplays are often more obvious, but Yoshida was awful by every single metric – and to the eye test as well.
I say this as someone who is absolutely floored by how bad he was; I'm blown away that pretty much every report pre-signing that I saw was like "yeah, he's not an amazing fielder – but he's not going to embarrass himself". I really hope he can make some adjustments out there, because he'd have to hit like Ichiro to justify being a DH with middling-or-worse power.
Also, if you're committing Yoshida to a platoon at this point, that is throwing in the towel in a huge way. I think they will definitely give him at least one more year before even entertaining that possibility.
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