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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 28, 2023 16:29:54 GMT -5
Passan tied the Sox to Soto today. I’m not interested in paying the price for him. Trout is the guy I wonder about. He’s got 7/$250m lef and is $86m underwater per BTV. Angels send the Sox $100m, the Sox send Verdugo, Perales and Johanfran Garcia. Sox get Trout at $20m per year, Angles get Verdugo who they can flip for more prospects or pay if they want, plus a couple upside lottery tickets Trout is not what he used to be..... Wayy to many injury concerns
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 28, 2023 16:33:40 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Oct 1, 2023 11:12:40 GMT -5
So I re-listened to this podcast from December between Alex Speier and Keith Law (free). The first 40 mins are all about Boston. Some really interesting points that may have bearing going forward: 1. About 15:00-20:00 minute segment. Speier discusses the ownership's philosophy with their POBO. Despite some claims to the opposite here, according to Speier, Bloom was free to spend over the tax and buy big ticket free agents, especially after they got under in 2020 and 2021. Ownership likes to be in on those conversations but they leave the decision up to the POBO, so all spending decisions on FAs were his. There was one big caveat: if you spend big bucks and it goes south, you will be held responsible (i.e. The Dombrowski Caveat). This seems to cut both ways, though - if you spread the risk around on middle-level and bargain bin FAs and that doesn't result in winning, you're on notice, too. Finally, Speier asserts that if, in the spring of 2022, instead of offering simply one more year at $20M, Bloom had offered Xander the six-year deal they ultimately proffered during the negotiations they ultimately lost to the Padres, Xander would still be on the team. This was another case of starting the bargaining way below what the acceptable top-end might be (a.k.a. like Jon Lester) and it ultimately strengthened Xander's resolve to test free agency. Anyway, one expects the new POBO will get the same parameters. Neither thought the deal with the Padres would end well, especially Law, though he intimated these 10 year deals should be seen as gimicky 7 year deals because after that, the money in the out years will be seen as much less than we view it today (kind of a put up in the first 7 years and then the last 3 are sunk cost/inflation/cost of getting those good 7 years - if they were good). 2. Both Law and Speier agree that Rafaela is elite in CF and to play him anywhere else is, if not criminal, a gross dereliction of duty and talent management. Law goes as far as saying his defense is so elite, even with middling plate skills, Ceddane would be an all star. 3. Pitching - Law brings up the problem the Sox have had developing pitching and they discuss Bello. Law and Speier think he has good potential but - and I can't remember who - says/intimates he's more of a 3 than a 1/2. Perhaps most revealing going into the 2023 season, Speier revealed that while the Sox were still looking to sign a starter at the time of the pod (Dec 12, 2022) they "really like Murphy, Walter and Mata as starters" at the MLB level. Law didn't seem to agree and didn't think Mata could throw strikes or repeat his delivery consistently enough to be a starter, but Speier was pretty clear that the FO thought all these guys would be starters at the MLB level at some point in 2023. 4. Misc - Law also thinks Yorke is a poor defensive second baseman and will have to hit very well to justify him playing in MLB. He also thinks Jordan will have to do the same as he has no position where he's credible on the field. They talked about Mayer and Speier was pretty clear that he did not figure into roster moves and signings being made by Bloom, saying something like (paraphrasing, "They see him as three years away and they see now as something completely exclusive from that." Anyway, it was an interesting conversation really getting into how the Front Office philosophies and talent evaluations shaped roster construction, especially seeing how things turned out.
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Oct 1, 2023 12:09:43 GMT -5
Gonna go ahead and pencil in Fuld as PBO.
C: Wong 1B: Casas 2B: Urias 3B: Devers SS: Story LF: Juan Soto** CF: Duran RF: Harrison Bader* DH: Yoshida
C: McGuire UT: Kolten Wong OF: Refsnyder OF: Abreu
SP: Chris Sale SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto* SP: Jordan Montgomery* SP: Bello SP: Crawford
RP: Martin RP: Schreiber RP: Will Smith* RP: Winckowski RP: Whitlock RP: Bernardino RP: Houck
Traded: Nick Pivetta, Alex Verdugo, Kenley Jansen (maybe all of them to SD lol - plus Yorke, of course)
*FA Acquisition **Trade Acquisition
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 6, 2023 10:30:58 GMT -5
As good a place to put this as any.
Mike Trout! Angels would be smart to eat a ton of money and trade him to a contender for prospects.
.283 / .409 / .602 (138 PA) home vs. the Sox
.309 / .418 / .447 (146 PA) in Fenway
He has 14 extra-base hits at home and 14 in Fenway.
It's 3 2B and 11 HR at home, and 12 2B, 1 3B, and 1 HR in Fenway.
So this is not an option.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 6, 2023 10:44:36 GMT -5
As good a place to put this as any.
Mike Trout! Angels would be smart to eat a ton of money and trade him to a contender for prospects.
.283 / .409 / .602 (138 PA) home vs. the Sox
.309 / .418 / .447 (146 PA) in Fenway
He has 14 extra-base hits at home and 14 in Fenway.
It's 3 2B and 11 HR at home, and 12 2B, 1 3B, and 1 HR in Fenway.
So this is not an option.
Trout is 31 and missed around half the games over the last three years. Even if he hit a ton of HRs in Fenway, I would not trade for him. You can not produce if you are not in the lineup! The Red Sox have had a lot of experience with this over the last few years!
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 6, 2023 10:56:15 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Oct 6, 2023 14:48:28 GMT -5
As good a place to put this as any. Mike Trout! Angels would be smart to eat a ton of money and trade him to a contender for prospects.
.283 / .409 / .602 (138 PA) home vs. the Sox
.309 / .418 / .447 (146 PA) in Fenway He has 14 extra-base hits at home and 14 in Fenway. It's 3 2B and 11 HR at home, and 12 2B, 1 3B, and 1 HR in Fenway. So this is not an option.
Or it could be that he was facing the Sox' pitchers.
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Post by scottysmalls on Oct 6, 2023 14:49:57 GMT -5
As good a place to put this as any. Mike Trout! Angels would be smart to eat a ton of money and trade him to a contender for prospects.
.283 / .409 / .602 (138 PA) home vs. the Sox
.309 / .418 / .447 (146 PA) in Fenway He has 14 extra-base hits at home and 14 in Fenway. It's 3 2B and 11 HR at home, and 12 2B, 1 3B, and 1 HR in Fenway. So this is not an option.
Or it could be that he was facing the Sox' pitchers. and whose pitchers do you presume he was facing at Fenway?
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 8, 2023 18:57:09 GMT -5
As good a place to put this as any. Mike Trout! Angels would be smart to eat a ton of money and trade him to a contender for prospects.
.283 / .409 / .602 (138 PA) home vs. the Sox
.309 / .418 / .447 (146 PA) in Fenway He has 14 extra-base hits at home and 14 in Fenway. It's 3 2B and 11 HR at home, and 12 2B, 1 3B, and 1 HR in Fenway. So this is not an option.
Or it could be that he was facing the Sox' pitchers. Who’s pitchers do you think he is facing when he plays against the Red Sox in CA? Answer: the same pitchers he faces when the Angels are in Boston.
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Post by carl4sox on Oct 14, 2023 14:38:25 GMT -5
So, it was OK for Bloom to go over the tax threshold? It sure didn’t seem like it.
But it wasn’t OK for DD to do it (Sale)? Doesn’t make sense.
I would think, with a deal like Sale’s, that PoBbO would be talking to the owners first. Wouldn’t this be standard practice?
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Post by blizzards39 on Oct 14, 2023 14:49:46 GMT -5
This is a very conservative projection. He was 3 war last year in half a season. It all comes down to health. First step is probably getting him outa CF. If he is available im all in.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Oct 14, 2023 17:08:39 GMT -5
So, it was OK for Bloom to go over the tax threshold? It sure didn’t seem like it. But it wasn’t OK for DD to do it (Sale)? Doesn’t make sense. I would think, with a deal like Sale’s, that PoBbO would be talking to the owners first. Wouldn’t this be standard practice? Bloom was brought in to immediately go under the luxury tax, and did. He went over in 2022, mistakenly and it likely cost him his job.
DD was consistently over the luxury tax, handed out massive deals to aging stars, and when pushed back from ownership on the Sale ext., he pushed for it and that's what ultimately cost him his job.
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Post by rhswanzey on Oct 14, 2023 21:20:56 GMT -5
This is a very conservative projection. He was 3 war last year in half a season. It all comes down to health. First step is probably getting him outa CF. If he is available im all in. ZIPS bases its projections on the previous three seasons with the most weight given to the most recent season. This article notes that Trout has only appeared in 60% of Angels games since the beginning of 2019, and he has missed significant time in each of the three prior seasons. This is reflected in the projection; ZIPS actually projects Trout at a 100 OPS+ or better for the first six of the seven seasons (through the .9 WAR season). It’s the availability that is toning his projection down, since he misses an opportunity to compile. It projects him for 498 PA in 2024 and drops him below 400 PA after year 4 of 7. You’re correct that it all comes down to health with Trout. I don’t think sound projection systems are going to overlook availability. We have recent experiences here with Sale and Paxton. It’s hard to see a guy miss significant time several seasons in a row, and then turn around and confidently assert he’s going to bat six hundred times in each of the next five seasons. I don’t think the projection is conservative at that point.
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Post by nonothing on Oct 15, 2023 4:16:38 GMT -5
Trout would be LF only at Fenway and had back injury concerns so bad this year that there was thought he might never play again.
You can't win buying nostalgia. That's how you lose. The Angels already got Trout's best years. Abreu will outproduce Trout over the next 7 years.
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Post by asm19 on Oct 15, 2023 8:28:56 GMT -5
Was looking at L/R splits and this was kinda shocking:
Connor Wong (C)
vs R: .262/.302/.429, 93 wRC+, 9 HR, 31.9% K (295 PA’s) vs L: .156/.241/.260, 32 wRC+, 0 HR, 37% K (108 PA’s)
I did not realize Wong so bad against lefties this year. Perhaps it’s a fluke rookie thing, but that’s quite a reverse split. In contrast, McGuire hit .391 in 27 PA’s against lefties, but I wouldn’t take that very seriously. (Reese has been more or less equally below average against both lefties or righties the last few years, around a 70ish wRC+)
If at the start of this year we envisioned a lefty/right catching platoon, I’m not sure it’s shown itself to be particularly useful. Could you move on from McGuire to find someone who might better complement Wong (both hitting and behind the dish) even it’s another RHH?
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Post by incandenza on Oct 15, 2023 8:52:59 GMT -5
Was looking at L/R splits and this was kinda shocking: Connor Wong (C) vs R: .262/.302/.429, 93 wRC+, 9 HR, 31.9% K (295 PA’s) vs L: .156/.241/.260, 32 wRC+, 0 HR, 37% K (108 PA’s) I did not realize Wong so bad against lefties this year. Perhaps it’s a fluke rookie thing, but that’s quite a reverse split. In contrast, McGuire hit .391 in 27 PA’s against lefties, but I wouldn’t take that very seriously. ( Reese has been more or less equally below average against both lefties or righties the last few years, around a 70ish wRC+) If at the start of this year we envisioned a lefty/right catching platoon, I’m not sure it’s shown itself to be particularly useful. Could you move on from McGuire to find someone who might better complement Wong (both hitting and behind the dish) even it’s another RHH? McGuire has a career wRC+ of 83; since 2021 it's 82. So I don't think it's mathematically possible for him to be around 70 against both righties and lefties. He also has 3.4 WAR in 697 PAs since 2021.
This is just to say that I don't think there's any urgent need to upgrade McGuire, especially as his two remaining years of control fit nicely with Teel's timeline. But Wong's splits might add a pebble to the scale in favor of signing Garver, a righty with an improbably impressive 128 wRC+ since 2021.
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Post by asm19 on Oct 15, 2023 9:10:39 GMT -5
Was looking at L/R splits and this was kinda shocking: Connor Wong (C) vs R: .262/.302/.429, 93 wRC+, 9 HR, 31.9% K (295 PA’s) vs L: .156/.241/.260, 32 wRC+, 0 HR, 37% K (108 PA’s) I did not realize Wong so bad against lefties this year. Perhaps it’s a fluke rookie thing, but that’s quite a reverse split. In contrast, McGuire hit .391 in 27 PA’s against lefties, but I wouldn’t take that very seriously. ( Reese has been more or less equally below average against both lefties or righties the last few years, around a 70ish wRC+) If at the start of this year we envisioned a lefty/right catching platoon, I’m not sure it’s shown itself to be particularly useful. Could you move on from McGuire to find someone who might better complement Wong (both hitting and behind the dish) even it’s another RHH? McGuire has a career wRC+ of 83; since 2021 it's 82. So I don't think it's mathematically possible for him to be around 70 against both righties and lefties. He also has 3.4 WAR in 697 PAs since 2021.
This is just to say that I don't think there's any urgent need to upgrade McGuire, especially as his two remaining years of control fit nicely with Teel's timeline. But Wong's splits might add a pebble to the scale in favor of signing Garver, a righty with an improbably impressive 128 wRC+ since 2021.
Ah - there must have been something off with the inputs I was playing around with on Fangraphs, you are correct on McGuire’s numbers. Career splits of 91 wRC+ vs righties, 54 wRC+ vs lefties. Did Wong have issues with lefties in the minor leagues? It looked like he was fine from what his splits as shown on SP: vs L: www.soxprospects.com/stats/batter.php?split=4&player=657136vs R: www.soxprospects.com/stats/batter.php?split=3&player=657136
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Post by manfred on Oct 15, 2023 9:53:28 GMT -5
Was looking at L/R splits and this was kinda shocking: Connor Wong (C) vs R: .262/.302/.429, 93 wRC+, 9 HR, 31.9% K (295 PA’s) vs L: .156/.241/.260, 32 wRC+, 0 HR, 37% K (108 PA’s) I did not realize Wong so bad against lefties this year. Perhaps it’s a fluke rookie thing, but that’s quite a reverse split. In contrast, McGuire hit .391 in 27 PA’s against lefties, but I wouldn’t take that very seriously. ( Reese has been more or less equally below average against both lefties or righties the last few years, around a 70ish wRC+) If at the start of this year we envisioned a lefty/right catching platoon, I’m not sure it’s shown itself to be particularly useful. Could you move on from McGuire to find someone who might better complement Wong (both hitting and behind the dish) even it’s another RHH? McGuire has a career wRC+ of 83; since 2021 it's 82. So I don't think it's mathematically possible for him to be around 70 against both righties and lefties. He also has 3.4 WAR in 697 PAs since 2021.
This is just to say that I don't think there's any urgent need to upgrade McGuire, especially as his two remaining years of control fit nicely with Teel's timeline. But Wong's splits might add a pebble to the scale in favor of signing Garver, a righty with an improbably impressive 128 wRC+ since 2021.
Catcher seems a very low priority this off-season given the platoon and future. I like Wong, and McGuire is fine as a back-up. With so many other needs, not a place I’d spend.
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Post by pappyman99 on Oct 15, 2023 10:00:42 GMT -5
Think Houck, Verdugo, Yorke, Yoshi, and Walter gets it done for Soto and Cronenworth?
Looking at this from the perspective that Cronenworth and Yoshi are a matching salary dump (with Yoshi be more valuable there)
I’m still targeting Teoscar Hernández if there is a reasonable short term deal that can get him. For his right handed bat and him and Soto can split between DH and LF
Also he was way better away from the mariners park
I’m trading duran for something in said scenario. And fulling Intending to offer Soto a Devers like contract
Rafaela CF Soto LF/DH Devers 3B Hernandez LF/DH Casas LF Story SS Abreu RF Cronenworth 2B Wong C
Pipe dream yeah but trying to be creative. I just keep feeling we will be doing something significant with the padres this off-season
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 15, 2023 11:39:34 GMT -5
Think Houck, Verdugo, Yorke, Yoshi, and Walter gets it done for Soto and Cronenworth? Looking at this from the perspective that Cronenworth and Yoshi are a matching salary dump (with Yoshi be more valuable there) I’m still targeting Teoscar Hernández if there is a reasonable short term deal that can get him. For his right handed bat and him and Soto can split between DH and LF Also he was way better away from the mariners park I’m trading duran for something in said scenario. And fulling Intending to offer Soto a Devers like contract Rafaela CF Soto LF/DH Devers 3B Hernandez LF/DH Casas LF Story SS Abreu RF Cronenworth 2B Wong C Pipe dream yeah but trying to be creative. I just keep feeling we will be doing something significant with the padres this off-season One quibble. I hope I never see a hacker type hitter like Rafaela lead off again. I'd much sooner lead off Abreu.
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Post by asm19 on Oct 15, 2023 11:50:40 GMT -5
McGuire has a career wRC+ of 83; since 2021 it's 82. So I don't think it's mathematically possible for him to be around 70 against both righties and lefties. He also has 3.4 WAR in 697 PAs since 2021.
This is just to say that I don't think there's any urgent need to upgrade McGuire, especially as his two remaining years of control fit nicely with Teel's timeline. But Wong's splits might add a pebble to the scale in favor of signing Garver, a righty with an improbably impressive 128 wRC+ since 2021.
Catcher seems a very low priority this off-season given the platoon and future. I like Wong, and McGuire is fine as a back-up. With so many other needs, not a place I’d spend. I was initially of this mind, Manfred, but when you look at where you can make improvements on the position group based on what we have currently have, a lot of the lineup is kinda set and to improve you might need to make some marginal moves over guys who are “fine.” Devers, Casas, Story, and Yoshida are all going to play everyday based on talent/contract - hopefully they all play to their potential. They have a plethora of outfield pieces (Duran, Verdugo, Abreu, Rafaela), and in free agency maybe you could bring back Duvall or a similar bat - but how much is that an improvement over this year? The 2B market is not great. If you can turn 200-300 at-bats of Reese McGuire into like, Mitch Garver (as incandenza suggested) or someone closer to a league average bat, that feels like a modest improvement worth looking into. And if they don’t bring aboard a huge difference maker offensively (Soto, Ohtani?) a lot of the improvements you’re going to make are going to be on the margins, right?
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Post by incandenza on Oct 15, 2023 12:10:02 GMT -5
One thing is, I have absolutely no idea what sort of contract Garver will get. 1/4? 3/30? No idea.
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Post by blizzards39 on Oct 15, 2023 12:44:04 GMT -5
Trout would be LF only at Fenway and had back injury concerns so bad this year that there was thought he might never play again. You can't win buying nostalgia. That's how you lose. The Angels already got Trout's best years. Abreu will outproduce Trout over the next 7 years. That is a ridiculous statement.
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Post by dmdmd on Oct 15, 2023 12:50:40 GMT -5
Sox biggest needs: Quality/frontline SPs, improved defense, MI help, improved line-up depth and pop off the bench.
Initial trade chips (may need to add to the list): Houck, Drohan, Verdugo, prospect not named Mayer, Anthony, Bleis, Teel. (If he had any trade value, though he probably does not have much, Mata.) Duran and Rafaela would be in play, if needed, though I would not trade both.
Front-line starters will likely only come via free agency: 2 starters needed. Target Yamamoto, Nola, Montgomery, perhaps in that order. If only 1 of them is get-able because of competition, salary restraints, etc, there are some interesting middle/back-of-the-rotation FA starters who could fill in.
MI/defensive upgrade: any of these 3 are obtainable, proven, and coming off down years, which might lower trade cost. I think Sox need to come away with one of: Edman, Cronenworth, Adames. All capable of playing SS, if needed, and I'd put Adames at SS and move Story to 2B if they got Adames. Each have different pros/cons, but all would solidify middle infield tremendously. (Each of the trading teams have needs we can fill w the above chips.)
I'd make a play for Soto, who would carry on tradition of great Sox LFs, add depth to the line-up (even though left-handed). It would take more than a Mookie deal return to get him, but perhaps not much more, and I think some combination of the chips above could get it done. Would then try a long-term deal w him, obviously.
Bench: Ref, McGuire, Pablo all had respectable years, but there is zero pop there. If we get a middle infielder as above, Urias becomes a nice bench utility who has a good glove at 2B and 3B and power. If you shuffle people late in the game and have someone like Cronenworth, he can be a late-inning defensive replacement for Casas, if needed (though I expect Casas to turn into a respectable defensive player). At back-up catcher, I'd probably prefer a guy with potential pop than a defensive specialist (though it may depend on lineup depth at other positions). Tom Murphy would be a nice upgrade w the bat at back-up catcher. Ref is a nice 5th OF against lefties, but I think he and/or Pablo can get squeezed if we can bolster the bench. I wouldn't mind getting Duvall back as my 4th OF who could rotate around the OF and provide good defense, as well as some power against lefties. If Turner is still an option, that's great too as a regular right-handed DH.
So the roster could take on many permutations w the above possibilities, but ideally could look like:
C: Wong
1B: Casas MI: Some combination of Story and Edman*/Cronenworth*/Adames* 3B: Devers LF: Soto* CF: Rafaela or Duran (assuming one of them goes in a trade) RF: Abreu
DH: Masataka
Bench: Murphy**, Urias, Duvall**, Reyes/Valdez
SP (in no particular order) Bello Sale Yamamoto** Nola**/Montgomery**/or mid-back of rotation FA** Pivetta Crawford
RP Jansen Martin Whitlock (would love to see him as 2-3 inning guy getting 120 IP as reliever) Schreiber Winckowski Bernandino Murphy
* Trade acquisition ** Free agent acquistion
If you don't get Soto above, I would look to bring back Turner at DH, and put Masa back in LF. (I might try to find a place for Turner on the team no matter what scenario played out.) And w/o Soto, would probably have both Duran and Rafaela back, with the latter potentially percolating in Worcester.
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