SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
|
Post by scottysmalls on Sept 22, 2023 17:27:40 GMT -5
On a more serious note, I’ve been thinking for a while that we need a thread for the Ohtani and non-Ohtani scenarios. I’ve had a hunch that they really do want him if only because of how well his bat should play in Fenway, along with the marketing potential, of course. If the medical looks good and they think he can pitch long term, bring it on. He’s gonna have a 200 wRC+ in Fenway. Yeah Ohtani obviously changes things a lot. If they can get him I think you move Yoshida unless he was an integral part of the recruiting pitch, but if you don't move Yoshida I personally think they have to move one of Duran or Verdugo (which I suppose plenty of folks think they need to do anyways) and I'd probably ship Duran just because I don't see him as a centerfielder and he has more trade value, then bring in Kiermaier or Bader as the bridge to Rafaela Then they obviously have less money towards starting pitching, I think they still get one of the second tier guys (Montgomery-ish level) and then a cheaper higher upside guy which there are lots of, but I doubt they would do Ohtani and a Nola/Yamamoto AND a third pitcher. It also might make them more aggressive for a starting pitcher trade (which Duran could certainly be part of). Someone like Burnes might make sense or a Mitch Keller, or even shoot for one of Seattle's guys.
|
|
chaimtime
Veteran
Posts: 922
Member is Online
|
Post by chaimtime on Sept 22, 2023 17:43:57 GMT -5
On a more serious note, I’ve been thinking for a while that we need a thread for the Ohtani and non-Ohtani scenarios. I’ve had a hunch that they really do want him if only because of how well his bat should play in Fenway, along with the marketing potential, of course. If the medical looks good and they think he can pitch long term, bring it on. He’s gonna have a 200 wRC+ in Fenway. Yeah Ohtani obviously changes things a lot. If they can get him I think you move Yoshida unless he was an integral part of the recruiting pitch, but if you don't move Yoshida I personally think they have to move one of Duran or Verdugo (which I suppose plenty of folks think they need to do anyways) and I'd probably ship Duran just because I don't see him as a centerfielder and he has more trade value, then bring in Kiermaier or Bader as the bridge to Rafaela Then they obviously have less money towards starting pitching, I think they still get one of the second tier guys (Montgomery-ish level) and then a cheaper higher upside guy which there are lots of, but I doubt they would do Ohtani and a Nola/Yamamoto AND a third pitcher. It also might make them more aggressive for a starting pitcher trade (which Duran could certainly be part of). Someone like Burnes might make sense or a Mitch Keller, or even shoot for one of Seattle's guys. Its such a weird spot because Ohtani the pitcher would still help so much. If he went for the internal brace procedure like some people are taking the weird agent statements to mean, could he be back in time to be a meaningful rotation addition next year? Is that putting too much stress on the elbow too soon? Without knowing more about the medical I guess it’s hard to say. If it all checks out, then I think there’s more room to play with to get pitching. Someone like Burnes as a rent-an-ace probably wouldn’t cost toooo much, but do you really want to part with significant prospect capital for a guy you’re not necessarily going to have around for a long time? I still like the idea of Joe Ryan—his k/bb numbers are great—but I’m also worried how much his production is juiced by being in the Central. He’s got home run issues, but does the monster actually help there? I like Keller, too. He’s more established, but he’s also got one fewer year of control. Curious how that impacts the prospect package. I think we’re in store for a fun offseason. A lot of directions they could go, and so a lot for us to argue about when they actually do make a move.
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Sept 22, 2023 18:43:50 GMT -5
What front office? There's nothing right now.
Is he talking about Henry? He has no clue who the next GM/POBO is? This is is just WM MSU.
|
|
|
Post by nonothing on Sept 24, 2023 14:29:35 GMT -5
BTV says Houck would land Burnes straight up. Anyone buying that? I like Houck, but would do that trade in half a second if I thought I could sign Burnes to contract for say 7yrs for $185M = $17M last arb yr in 2024 + $28×6).
Anyone think this might be a realistic 1 for 1 swap? (And yes I get yrs of control, but still...)
Curious to hear what people think, ty!
|
|
|
Post by nonothing on Sept 24, 2023 14:41:41 GMT -5
Would also sign J Montgomery or S Imanaga as LHSP complement for $120M over 5 yrs for Montgomery, or Senga-like deal + payment to Japanese team for Imanaga.
I think we could be pretty good with rotation of:
Burnes-R Sale-L Bello-R Montgomery or Imanaga-L Crawford-R and Pivetta-R
Including 6 because you always need 6
I would probably also trade for Bryan Woo from Mariners, if Yorke was the major name going to them or do a reclamation deal with Marlins for E Cabrera and see if we could get him to throw strikes, depending on what Miami might want.
Last trade would be to send an LHH OF to Guardians for Gabriel Arias. They have top prospect ready for SS/2B to pair with Gimenez, and Arias would be great fit for us whether he hits much or not, but upside is there for the bat. Maybe there is a bigger deal here including one of their SPs, but I would only trade for one SP between SEA, CLE and MIA. That would give us 7 starters going into camp, and we can consider whether to sign Paxton to an incentive-laden deal as #8 or just ride with 7.
I am not for Ohtani or Trout for us, and would only sign Yamamoto if similar to the Burnes deal I put above. Over $200M into a pitcher is not a great idea to me.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 24, 2023 14:47:10 GMT -5
BTV says Houck would land Burnes straight up. Anyone buying that? I like Houck, but would do that trade in half a second if I though I could sign Burnes to contract for say 7yrs for $185M = $17M last arb yr in 2024 + $28×6). Anyone think this might be a realistic 1 for 1 swap? (And yes I get yrs of control, but still...) Curious to hear what people think, ty! I think the Brewers entertain hopes of winning the World Series this year and/or next year, and they have reason to, given that they're easily the class of a weak NL Central. To win theyll need an ace, not a pitcher who might be a starter but is probably better out of the pen. I doubt they're trading Burnes this offseason. They want to win in 2024, too. If the Brewers are a 2024 disappointment by July 31st, sure, theyll trade him assuming they do better than a compensation pick which is a pretty safe assumption. Otherwise theyll likely try to win, with him leading the pitching staff, something that Tanner Houck would not be doing. And if/when he walks theyll then take the compensation pick. I think for them the math is fall out of contention and trade Burnes for value greater than a comp pick or truly compete and take their chances and then take the comp pick and worry about 2025 in 2025. A third less likely scenario is,they re-sign him.
|
|
|
Post by nonothing on Sept 24, 2023 14:59:06 GMT -5
BTV says Houck would land Burnes straight up. Anyone buying that? I like Houck, but would do that trade in half a second if I though I could sign Burnes to contract for say 7yrs for $185M = $17M last arb yr in 2024 + $28×6). Anyone think this might be a realistic 1 for 1 swap? (And yes I get yrs of control, but still...) Curious to hear what people think, ty! I think the Brewers entertain hopes of winning the World Series this year and/or next year, and they have reason to, given that they're easily the class of a weak NL Central. To win theyll need an ace, not a pitcher who might be a starter but is probably better out of the pen. I doubt they're trading Burnes this offseason. They want to win in 2024, too. If the Brewers are a 2024 disappointment by July 31st, sure, theyll trade him assuming they do better than a compensation pick which is a pretty safe assumption. Otherwise theyll likely try to win, with him leading the pitching staff, something that Tanner Houck would not be doing. And if/when he walks theyll then take the compensation pick. I think for them the math is fall out of contention and trade Burnes for value greater than a comp pick or truly compete and take their chances and then take the comp pick and worry about 2025 in 2025. A third less likely scenario is,they re-sign him. They won't resign him. They Betts'd him in arbitration hearing. He is set for another arb showdown with them this year with another potential arb record on the line and will be outta there after 2024. Another thought would be to flip Sale/cash plus a prospect(s) to them for Burnes, where we intend to extend Burnes, and they can do what you said with Sale. How much $ and/or prospect(s) do you think that would take?
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 24, 2023 15:45:51 GMT -5
I think the Brewers entertain hopes of winning the World Series this year and/or next year, and they have reason to, given that they're easily the class of a weak NL Central. To win theyll need an ace, not a pitcher who might be a starter but is probably better out of the pen. I doubt they're trading Burnes this offseason. They want to win in 2024, too. If the Brewers are a 2024 disappointment by July 31st, sure, theyll trade him assuming they do better than a compensation pick which is a pretty safe assumption. Otherwise theyll likely try to win, with him leading the pitching staff, something that Tanner Houck would not be doing. And if/when he walks theyll then take the compensation pick. I think for them the math is fall out of contention and trade Burnes for value greater than a comp pick or truly compete and take their chances and then take the comp pick and worry about 2025 in 2025. A third less likely scenario is,they re-sign him. They won't resign him. They Betts'd him in arbitration hearing. He is set for another arb showdown with them this year and will be outta there after 2024. Another thought would be to flip Sale/cash plus a prospect(s) to them for Burnes, where we intend to extend Burnes, and they can do what you said with Sale. How much $ and/or prospect(s) do you think that would take? Yeah I know they're not likely to sign him. My point is why would the Brewers want to punt on 2024 when they have a legit shot of winning in 2024? That would be like the Sox trading Pedro Martinez after 2003 when it was obvious the Sox had a legit shot to win in 2004. The Brewers don't get too many legit shots so I dont see them downgrading from Burnes in 2024 unless the season is lost come July. The Brewers have been on 1 World Series in their history, way back in 1982. I think they'll do everything in their power to take their best shot this year and next as pitchers like Burnes dont come around often.
|
|
|
Post by nonothing on Sept 24, 2023 16:14:34 GMT -5
They won't resign him. They Betts'd him in arbitration hearing. He is set for another arb showdown with them this year and will be outta there after 2024. Another thought would be to flip Sale/cash plus a prospect(s) to them for Burnes, where we intend to extend Burnes, and they can do what you said with Sale. How much $ and/or prospect(s) do you think that would take? Yeah I know they're not likely to sign him. My point is why would the Brewers want to punt on 2024 when they have a legit shot of winning in 2024? That would be like the Sox trading Pedro Martinez after 2003 when it was obvious the Sox had a legit shot to win in 2004. The Brewers don't get too many legit shots so I dont see them downgrading from Burnes in 2024 unless the season is lost come July. The Brewers have been on 1 World Series in their history, way back in 1982. I think they'll do everything in their power to take their best shot this year and next as pitchers like Burnes dont come around often. True - but they trader Hader. And teams like MIL do trade studs for value before losing them for a comp pick. The backlash mid-season for doing so is enormous. So I think it depends what they think they could get. I don't think Houck does it, esp as he likely nest fits in epn as you said. But would they take Sale+cash or Pivetta or Houck (if they think they see a way to maximize either in a starting role) plus Perales and Bleis? That's a deal we shouldn't do if we can get Yamamoto for $200M over 8 without giving up prospects, but... just curious what people think. You may well be right. I think the easiest thing to see that they should absolutely do is sign either Montgomery or Imanaga to have a lefty starter because they have none on the horizon. If they overpay a bit, it's OK. The top of rotation righty is the tougher piece to the 2024 puzzle.
|
|
|
Post by nonothing on Sept 24, 2023 16:21:31 GMT -5
Also curious for 2024 roster takes on:
Dalbec for backup CI role w/ Yoshida at DH vs. Turner for 1yr at 16M occupying both DH and backup CI roles and Yoshida as LF for another yr (except DH when Turner plays in field)?
|
|
chaimtime
Veteran
Posts: 922
Member is Online
|
Post by chaimtime on Sept 24, 2023 16:43:57 GMT -5
My understanding is that Milwaukee has always tried to flip guys they don’t see sticking around before they lose their value, like they did with Hader. They’re a perennial bottom-third payroll team so “losing guys for nothing” matters a lot more to them—they need to keep the controllable talent flowing in, especially when they know they’re not going to keep a guy. The feeling I got from their fanbase last offseason was that they wanted to use him to dump Yelich to free up money to extend Woodruff/Adames and/or long-term deals for Frelick and Contreras. If they’re not getting off that money I think there’s probably a prospect bidding war instead. Houck seems like a decent return for them, but I’d be curious what the competition was like.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 24, 2023 18:20:47 GMT -5
Yeah I know they're not likely to sign him. My point is why would the Brewers want to punt on 2024 when they have a legit shot of winning in 2024? That would be like the Sox trading Pedro Martinez after 2003 when it was obvious the Sox had a legit shot to win in 2004. The Brewers don't get too many legit shots so I dont see them downgrading from Burnes in 2024 unless the season is lost come July. The Brewers have been on 1 World Series in their history, way back in 1982. I think they'll do everything in their power to take their best shot this year and next as pitchers like Burnes dont come around often. True - but they trader Hader. And teams like MIL do trade studs for value before losing them for a comp pick. The backlash mid-season for doing so is enormous. So I think it depends what they think they could get. I don't think Houck does it, esp as he likely nest fits in epn as you said. But would they take Sale+cash or Pivetta or Houck (if they think they see a way to maximize either in a starting role) plus Perales and Bleis? That's a deal we shouldn't do if we can get Yamamoto for $200M over 8 without giving up prospects, but... just curious what people think. You may well be right. I think the easiest thing to see that they should absolutely do is sign either Montgomery or Imanaga to have a lefty starter because they have none on the horizon. If they overpay a bit, it's OK. The top of rotation righty is the tougher piece to the 2024 puzzle. If say Hader is easier for Milwaukee to replace than Burnes. If I were relying on Sale to replace Burnes quality and quantity of innings I would be very concerned about that and having Houck around woukdnt really make that concern subside. If I were Milwaukee I would want Bello in a deal for Burnes or a high ceiling upper minor league starting pitcher. The Sox really dont have one if those, so Bello would be the guy I'd demand if I were Milwaukee.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,108
|
Post by jimoh on Sept 24, 2023 18:28:58 GMT -5
This isn't a reason for signing him next year, but it's sad to see in Pete Abe's Sunday notes that Turner was ready to sign with the Red Sox before the 2014 season, before the Dodgers swooped in and offered the likelihood of more "utility at-bats". He had played five positions for the Mets in 2013, with an OPS only slightly over 700, but then for the Dodgers he had 322 PA of .340.404.493.897. And the Red Sox 3b in 2014 were Middlebrooks, Xander (10 errors in 44 games at 3b), Holt and others; with Middelbrooks hitting .191.256.265.522 in 62 games.
|
|
|
Post by pappyman99 on Sept 25, 2023 18:40:19 GMT -5
Interesting news out of San Diego and curious
Would we want to do something like Soto and bogaerts and $9 million per year for xanders contract in exchange for duran, yorke and verdugo?
Interesting twist to the off-season, as the Padres want to get under the $200 million level for payroll
|
|
|
Post by ephus on Sept 25, 2023 18:49:56 GMT -5
Interesting news out of San Diego and curious Would we want to do something like Soto and bogaerts and $9 million per year for xanders contract in exchange for duran, yorke and verdugo? Interesting twist to the off-season, as the Padres want to get under the $200 million level for payroll San Diego is going to need pitching pitching and pitching. Doubtful they'd move both Soto and Xander since they've got him penciled in at 2nd next year (according to reports). Anyway that package would probably require something we are very short on - cost-controlled MLB-ready arms.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 6,331
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Sept 25, 2023 18:54:24 GMT -5
Removing dealing for Soto or tatis and what not from the equation the Padres have some other interesting players that may fit the sox. Croenworth had a down year and his contract is kinda risky but I wouldn't hate the idea of buying low on him. If he rebounds at his more natural position of 2nd base he turns 2nd base to a strength. He is a LHH though so that doesn't necessarily fit the roster makeup.
Ha seong Kim would be a good target for 2nd base as well but he'd probably cost a fairly tough to give up package.
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Sept 26, 2023 7:16:06 GMT -5
If SD is cutting payroll I’d be all over Kim. He’d help our team as much as anyone considering the black hole we had at 2B this year. Great D, baserunning, pretty good OBA. They have Merrill who could be ready mid season for the middle infield and maybe take on a questionable salary like Suarez.
|
|
|
Post by asm19 on Sept 26, 2023 9:13:44 GMT -5
If SD is cutting payroll I’d be all over Kim. He’d help our team as much as anyone considering the black hole we had at 2B this year. Great D, baserunning, pretty good OBA. They have Merrill who could be ready mid season for the middle infield and maybe take on a questionable salary like Suarez. Additionally, it looks like Kim is on an expiring contract (7 million), with 2025 featuring a mutual option: www.spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/ha-seong-kim-70890/Seems like a perfectly reasonable bridge to 2025 when hopefully Mayer is ready.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Sept 26, 2023 9:36:16 GMT -5
If SD is cutting payroll I’d be all over Kim. He’d help our team as much as anyone considering the black hole we had at 2B this year. Great D, baserunning, pretty good OBA. They have Merrill who could be ready mid season for the middle infield and maybe take on a questionable salary like Suarez. Additionally, it looks like Kim is on an expiring contract (7 million), with 2025 featuring a mutual option: www.spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/ha-seong-kim-70890/Seems like a perfectly reasonable bridge to 2025 when hopefully Mayer is ready. The Padres adding Bogaerts for $280 million and then trading Kim to save $7 million when they've been equally valuable players this year would be some real chef's kiss stuff.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 6,331
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Sept 26, 2023 9:40:25 GMT -5
Kim would be an excellent shot in the arm for the MI production of the team, 3.8 fWAR last year and 4.4 this year. That being the case I just wonder if the prospect cost would be worth it for just a year. If he's got a mutual option barring injury I don't see anyway he accepts it. Perhaps he wouldn't cost a ton being an expiring FA.
|
|
|
Post by asm19 on Sept 26, 2023 9:46:27 GMT -5
Kim would be an excellent shot in the arm for the MI production of the team, 3.8 fWAR last year and 4.4 this year. That being the case I just wonder if the prospect cost would be worth it for just a year. If he's got a mutual option barring injury I don't see anyway he accepts it. Perhaps he wouldn't cost a ton being an expiring FA. "Do you guys still want Bryan Mata for Kim - he's doing great!"
|
|
|
Post by pappyman99 on Sept 26, 2023 16:23:04 GMT -5
The Padres adding Bogaerts for $280 million and then trading Kim to save $7 million when they've been equally valuable players this year would be some real chef's kiss stuff. Yeah it’s more likely they try to trade both in some sort of salary dump Only way way I’m interested in that is extremely conditional, which would be we would need to be trading Story, and something like Houck and Yorke. And the padres would have to give us $10 million per year for the last 6 years of bogaerts contract (making him a $15 luxury hit at that point And that only makes any kind of sense if Mayer is landing us some ultra talented young Ace in a separate deal The padres will be the focus of the off-season in such an opposite way of the last couple of years
|
|
|
Post by ephus on Sept 26, 2023 16:46:04 GMT -5
The Padres adding Bogaerts for $280 million and then trading Kim to save $7 million when they've been equally valuable players this year would be some real chef's kiss stuff. Yeah it’s more likely they try to trade both in some sort of salary dump Only way way I’m interested in that is extremely conditional, which would be we would need to be trading Story, and something like Houck and Yorke. And the padres would have to give us $10 million per year for the last 6 years of bogaerts contract (making him a $15 luxury hit at that point And that only makes any kind of sense if Mayer is landing us some ultra talented young Ace in a separate deal The padres will be the focus of the off-season in such an opposite way of the last couple of years If you're moving Mayer to keep Xander at Shortstop, I'm out. Unless Brainer absolutely crushes in fall league and you think he'll be ready to take over shortstop in a year. I am not keeping X at short past 2025.
|
|
|
Post by ephus on Sept 27, 2023 15:06:02 GMT -5
OK, here goes. Without having any idea who the incoming head of baseball operations will be so take this with a mountain of salt.
My thinking: Improved defense and balancing the line-up will be key. I think if the Padres are looking to sell the Red Sox might overpay to get Kim by taking on a salary like Nick Martinez and paying with a haul of cost-controlled and expiring contracts like Houck, Valdez Duran, Verdugo and Schrieber. Then I see a new baseboard opps person make a run at someone like Chapman to move Raffy to DH, add a RH bat and improve infield defense.
I like McGuire and Wong, but think a new opps person may look for a catcher, too on a short deal until Teel is ready. Beiber is throwing spaghetti at the wall but if Cleveland moves him, why not be involved. A deal around Duran, possibly Mayer and Wickerman might get it done. We add starting pitching but they plan on Sale as the No. 1. We all pray for a return to swings and misses and health.
Red Sox starting line-up on Thursday, March 28th in Seattle:
1B Triston Casas (l) 2B Ha-Seong Kim (r) SS Trevor Story (r) 3B Matt Chapman (r) Raffy Devers (l) LF Wilyer Abreu (l) CF Ceddanne Rafaela (r) RF Masataka Yoshida (l) Teoscar Hernández (r) C Mitch Garver (r) McGuire (r) DH Devers (l)
Masa SP: Shane Bieber Chris Sale
Gone: Verdugo,Turner,Duran,Duvall, Urias, Reyes, McGuire, Valdez, Houck
Edits: Abound. What a mess. I swear I wasn't drunk when I first posted this. At least I don't think I was. LOL
|
|
|
Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Sept 28, 2023 16:27:01 GMT -5
Passan tied the Sox to Soto today. I’m not interested in paying the price for him. Trout is the guy I wonder about. He’s got 7/$250m lef and is $86m underwater per BTV. Angels send the Sox $100m, the Sox send Verdugo, Perales and Johanfran Garcia. Sox get Trout at $20m per year, Angles get Verdugo who they can flip for more prospects or pay if they want, plus a couple upside lottery tickets
|
|
|