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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
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Post by incandenza on Sept 21, 2023 10:03:34 GMT -5
His WAR total isn't just defense; he's an above replacement level hitter - he's exactly average, in fact, 100 wRC+ - and that corresponds to positive WAR. (B-Ref has most of his value coming from offense, actually, though I don't really understand how they calculate such stuff. And for what it's worth they have him as a 2.8 WAR player, which would make it even crazier to get rid of him if you believe that rating, though personally I like fWAR better.)
If people had ideas about who to replace Verdugo with other than some unproven rookies who project to be not as good as Verdugo, I'd be all ears. But if the idea is that they can just get by with Duran, Rafaela, and Abreu... well, that's worse than what they'd have if they kept Verdugo.
I like Kiermaier as a replacement. Go with Duran/Kiermaier/Duvall outfield I’d be pretty okay. Lot of injury / age risk though Okay, that's not bad! I could live with that. Reminds me that one of my predictions for last offseason was that they'd trade Verdugo and sign Kiermaier then. Maybe i was just a year (and a front office regime) too early...
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 21, 2023 10:10:01 GMT -5
The problem I have with Verdugo is that his entire tenure in Boston his wRC+ has been trending negative. 125 in 2020 then 106, 102 and now 100. He could easily have a hot end of the season to push it higher though. Also he's at 2.1 fWAR, he was 1.2 last year and 1.9 in 2021, we aren't really talking someone who should be very hard to replace. I get both sides of the argument and I'm not saying to trade him for a bucket of balls but if he can be a part of a trade to bring in someone to bolster another area of the team and sign someone to replace him for a year or two until Anthony is ready I'd be for it. I agree with Incandenza though that the answer shouldn't be to trade Verdugo and just try and go with an OF of Duran/Rafaela/Abreu. Then who should they replace him with??? If he's easy to replace then it should be easy to put some names out there. But the free agent market is garbage. Make a trade? Okay, but then you're giving up assets, and gaining assets is the rationale for trading him away in the first place. I also think it's pretty convenient to have him under contract for exactly one more season. We'll have a better feel for which of Duran, Rafaela, and Abreu are potential long-term starters by the end of next season, and even Anthony may be knocking on the door.
As some others have said maybe Kiemaier, maybe Adam Duvall, Harrison Bader, Max Kepler, Michael Conforto if he opts out, heck if they buy in to Bellinger's resurgence maybe him. Not saying any of those guys are perfect fits, those are all just the FAs. We don't know who might be available for trade. I didn't really make my thought process clear, I wouldn't trade Verdugo if they didn't have a replacement in hand yet. I wouldn't trade him and go with an OF of Duran/Rafaela/Abreu. I wouldn't trade him if there's no value to be brought back in a trade IE. some random prospects who would be around 30th in the farm.
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Post by manfred on Sept 21, 2023 10:26:27 GMT -5
Well, the LF/CF defense should be better if it is Duran and Rafaela. An average RF would not be much of a step back. He is 2 WAR strictly on defense. He will likely finish the season as a below-league average bat. If your OF is Duran-Li’l Raf-Verdugo…. I am suspicious of how serious you are about contending. His WAR total isn't just defense; he's an above replacement level hitter - he's exactly average, in fact, 100 wRC+ - and that corresponds to positive WAR. (B-Ref has most of his value coming from offense, actually, though I don't really understand how they calculate such stuff. And for what it's worth they have him as a 2.8 WAR player, which would make it even crazier to get rid of him if you believe that rating, though personally I like fWAR better.)
If people had ideas about who to replace Verdugo with other than some unproven rookies who project to be not as good as Verdugo, I'd be all ears. But if the idea is that they can just get by with Duran, Rafaela, and Abreu... well, that's worse than what they'd have if they kept Verdugo.
I’m with you on that. I am definitely *not* in favor of a ditch him then figure it out strategy. If you can’t replace him, play him. But I think replacing him via trade should be a top priority.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 21, 2023 12:22:20 GMT -5
My only concern with "replacing him" is well.....who is out there? The argument for trading him is that the market for position players is so thin therfore he can get you more than what he should.
OK, but....doesn't that mean the cost of replacing him is inflated as well?!?!?
I really like Duran/Rafaela/Abreu but I do not like all three of them being entrusted with the keys to the 2024 outfield all at once. Perhaps if you can trade 1 year of Verdugo for 1 year of a starting pitcher of equal value because you go all in on a guy like Bellinger it could make sense. I honestly don't know how I would feel about that. I was a fan of him on a 1-year deal, not so much a long-term contract. I'd be cautiously excited if the Sox went down that unlikely path.
If Dr. Strange went through 21 million permutations of the Sox offseason I'd have to say over 95% of them will have seen the majority of their resources going towards starting pitching. I just don't see a Dugo trade.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 21, 2023 14:57:55 GMT -5
If the Red Sox can get a solid pitcher with Verdugo as part of a package or simply get a good one on one deal I'd be very open to moving him.
Verdugo is gone after next year anyways, and the Sox do have an Abreu/Duvall combo they can replace him with if need be. I know an OF of Duran/Rafaela/Abreu plus Duvall platoon or whatever isn't exciting, but if they improve their pitching or some other part of the club they'd be foolish not to consider it.
Verdugo is what he is, which is a little above average player who has had issues that have already gotten him benched twice. I know he has the talent to hit better than he has and he showed he has the talent to play RF. Can we really count on him next season being in great shape and being an asset in RF again? Why hasn't his offense picked up? I was hopeful we were seeing a new Verdugo this year, great all around who would be consistent throughout, but then he took his annual month break on offense and I figured we'd see him bounce back like he always had, but he really didn't and I think his offense can be replaced, and his departure could open up another 10 million or so to improve the ballclub.
So no, I wouldn't give him away, but I would certainly entertain the idea of trading him.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 21, 2023 19:09:32 GMT -5
The argument for trading Verdugo should only hinge on if you think you can use him (either alone or as part of a package) to upgrade the pitching staff. Anything else doesn't make sense to me, per the points above.
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dcb26
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Post by dcb26 on Sept 21, 2023 20:06:57 GMT -5
Verdugo is a guy that you should be happy to have for a cheap salary, but he's also a guy you shouldn't hesitate to move on from or upgrade when the time comes. Young guys needing playing time, chance to upgrade the position e.g. Duvall, last year of his contract, likely to be somewhat valuable in a trade, repeated issues with the coaching staff - seems to me like there are a number of semi-compelling reasons to trade him
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Sept 21, 2023 20:52:09 GMT -5
I think a major part of the Verdugo discussion has been left out here. I don't think the Cora or the owners like him. Cora has gotten on him about his effort and attitude multiple times this year, unlike with any other player. You can call it tough love, but I don't know if I buy that anymore. I think ownership wants to ship him out, and that's a big part of why I don't predict him to be around next year.
I'm also not sure the team needs to spend 10 million dollars next year on a defensively minded player. I think Abreu can provide a better offensive output next year, at 1/10 the price, with perhaps slightly below average defense. This lineup has been anemic for a while now, and I'm rather concerned with whether we'll hit enough next year.
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Post by manfred on Sept 22, 2023 12:13:19 GMT -5
The argument for trading Verdugo should only hinge on if you think you can use him (either alone or as part of a package) to upgrade the pitching staff. Anything else doesn't make sense to me, per the points above. I think there are more arguments to be made: you have a glut of OFers (leaning heavily lefty). He is a ~2 WAR guy, pretty baked in. It’s his last year of control. So: do you intend to keep him? If not, why not get something for him? Further: I am not thrilled with Duran-Rafaela-Abreu (with Ref in the mix). But we can probably imagine Abreu to be a 1 WAR guy, no? So is losing 1 WAR for one year that bad? (Even prior to other OF moves). I’d definitely be ok with getting an OF (maybe even resigning Duvall) and trading Verdugo — either for prospects or in a package for more. But that more could be something besides a P. Last thing: given you are a year from having to pay him, maybe you get a team to send you a RF they don’t want to pay. They save money, you upgrade. I think there are a lot of scenarios. But the guy is hardly irreplaceable. And… without real changes, next year is not happening anyway. So the first question, are you resigning him, is huge.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 22, 2023 12:30:22 GMT -5
I think a lot of these projected rosters have way too much continuity. If the offseason plan was “bring the same core back except with more pitchers” then I don’t think Bloom would’ve been fired. I expect some pretty big shakeups across the roster this offseason.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Sept 22, 2023 13:15:07 GMT -5
I think a lot of these projected rosters have way too much continuity. If the offseason plan was “bring the same core back except with more pitchers” then I don’t think Bloom would’ve been fired. I expect some pretty big shakeups across the roster this offseason. Most of the knocks coming from ownership on Chaim have been about his indecision and struggles to make big moves. I think they were concerned he wouldn't be able to effectively close the deals on big name free agent pitchers this off-season, not that he hadn't created a strong core.
There is a core to work with on this team, the bullpen is solid, there are a couple starters who can be trusted. 2 big names starters will be a major improvement.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 22, 2023 13:33:51 GMT -5
I think a lot of these projected rosters have way too much continuity. If the offseason plan was “bring the same core back except with more pitchers” then I don’t think Bloom would’ve been fired. I expect some pretty big shakeups across the roster this offseason. Most of the knocks coming from ownership on Chaim have been about his indecision and struggles to make big moves. I think they were concerned he wouldn't be able to effectively close the deals on big name free agent pitchers this off-season, not that he hadn't created a strong core.
There is a core to work with on this team, the bullpen is solid, there are a couple starters who can be trusted. 2 big names starters will be a major improvement.
Sure, but that core is Devers/Casas/Bello/the not-quite-starters group, plus all the young talent in the pipeline. Duran fits in there if you buy that he’s taken a leap this year. But there seems to be a lot of “bring back Duvall/Turner” and “keep Verdugo or replace him with Abreu” sentiment and I just don’t feel like ownership wants to go into the season without significant improvements to the lineup. This team has a 102 wRC+, it’s not like there’s no room for the lineup to get better. I also don’t particularly want to be closing deals on too many big name free agent pitchers, so take that for whatever it’s worth. I want to see a Dipoto-type offseason of wheeling and dealing to reshape the roster around that core. I’ll be disappointed if they can’t swing any trades for pitching, and I think they’re gonna need to try to bring in at least one name in the outfield that’s a cut above what they have right now. The outfield was good this year, but it’s crying out for a real stud.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 22, 2023 13:54:52 GMT -5
Most of the knocks coming from ownership on Chaim have been about his indecision and struggles to make big moves. I think they were concerned he wouldn't be able to effectively close the deals on big name free agent pitchers this off-season, not that he hadn't created a strong core.
There is a core to work with on this team, the bullpen is solid, there are a couple starters who can be trusted. 2 big names starters will be a major improvement.
Sure, but that core is Devers/Casas/Bello/the not-quite-starters group, plus all the young talent in the pipeline. Duran fits in there if you buy that he’s taken a leap this year. But there seems to be a lot of “bring back Duvall/Turner” and “keep Verdugo or replace him with Abreu” sentiment and I just don’t feel like ownership wants to go into the season without significant improvements to the lineup. This team has a 102 wRC+, it’s not like there’s no room for the lineup to get better. I also don’t particularly want to be closing deals on too many big name free agent pitchers, so take that for whatever it’s worth. I want to see a Dipoto-type offseason of wheeling and dealing to reshape the roster around that core. I’ll be disappointed if they can’t swing any trades for pitching, and I think they’re gonna need to try to bring in at least one name in the outfield that’s a cut above what they have right now. The outfield was good this year, but it’s crying out for a real stud. The lineup is both not as good as you'd like it to be and weirdly hard to improve because it's adequate everywhere and the FA market sucks.
C: no real options for improving on McWong 1B: Casas will do 2B: no free agent options better than Urias 3B: Devers is an ok hitter SS: Story isn't going anywhere LF: have to hope for a Yoshida bounceback; free agent options are grim, and internal options don't project better than Yoshida
CF: they could tread water by bringing back Duvall, but he'll be a year older; Rafaela is almost certainly an offensive downgrade from what they got from Duran/Duvall this season RF: free agent options are grim, and internal options don't project better than Verdugo DH: they could trade water by bringing back Turner, but he'll be a year older; or could move Yoshida to DH, which would be my preference, but then you're still hoping for a Yoshida bounceback; or they could sign Ohtani, but that uses up a massive chunk of change when pitching really needs to be their priority
None of these positions are really "holes" that need to be filled (even if Yoshida goes to DH, Duran can be the LFer). I think they can/will add an outfielder. Duvall seems like the best option; the only FAs who *might* project better would be Teoscar and Bellinger, both of whom are going to be appallingly expensive. But again, that's just a move to run in place.
Could they make a trade? Maybe. But how many prospects do you want to give up to improve from 2 WAR at a given position to 3-4 WAR or whatever? That's the "problem" with being okay at every position: no low-hanging fruit.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 22, 2023 14:51:00 GMT -5
Sure, but that core is Devers/Casas/Bello/the not-quite-starters group, plus all the young talent in the pipeline. Duran fits in there if you buy that he’s taken a leap this year. But there seems to be a lot of “bring back Duvall/Turner” and “keep Verdugo or replace him with Abreu” sentiment and I just don’t feel like ownership wants to go into the season without significant improvements to the lineup. This team has a 102 wRC+, it’s not like there’s no room for the lineup to get better. I also don’t particularly want to be closing deals on too many big name free agent pitchers, so take that for whatever it’s worth. I want to see a Dipoto-type offseason of wheeling and dealing to reshape the roster around that core. I’ll be disappointed if they can’t swing any trades for pitching, and I think they’re gonna need to try to bring in at least one name in the outfield that’s a cut above what they have right now. The outfield was good this year, but it’s crying out for a real stud. The lineup is both not as good as you'd like it to be and weirdly hard to improve because it's adequate everywhere and the FA market sucks.
C: no real options for improving on McWong 1B: Casas will do 2B: no free agent options better than Urias 3B: Devers is an ok hitter SS: Story isn't going anywhere LF: have to hope for a Yoshida bounceback; free agent options are grim, and internal options don't project better than Yoshida
CF: they could tread water by bringing back Duvall, but he'll be a year older; Rafaela is almost certainly an offensive downgrade from what they got from Duran/Duvall this season RF: free agent options are grim, and internal options don't project better than Verdugo DH: they could trade water by bringing back Turner, but he'll be a year older; or could move Yoshida to DH, which would be my preference, but then you're still hoping for a Yoshida bounceback; or they could sign Ohtani, but that uses up a massive chunk of change when pitching really needs to be their priority
None of these positions are really "holes" that need to be filled (even if Yoshida goes to DH, Duran can be the LFer). I think they can/will add an outfielder. Duvall seems like the best option; the only FAs who *might* project better would be Teoscar and Bellinger, both of whom are going to be appallingly expensive. But again, that's just a move to run in place.
Could they make a trade? Maybe. But how many prospects do you want to give up to improve from 2 WAR at a given position to 3-4 WAR or whatever? That's the "problem" with being okay at every position: no low-hanging fruit.
^This is why we need a new GM from outside the org. Someone who doesn't look at this 78-win roster and say "none of these positions are really holes." We need someone who has been in another FO and has looked at each player on our roster and thought, "I would maybe give up Player X for that guy," or even, "I would throw good prospects at them to get that guy." We need a fresh set of eyes.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 22, 2023 15:04:23 GMT -5
The lineup is both not as good as you'd like it to be and weirdly hard to improve because it's adequate everywhere and the FA market sucks.
C: no real options for improving on McWong 1B: Casas will do 2B: no free agent options better than Urias 3B: Devers is an ok hitter SS: Story isn't going anywhere LF: have to hope for a Yoshida bounceback; free agent options are grim, and internal options don't project better than Yoshida
CF: they could tread water by bringing back Duvall, but he'll be a year older; Rafaela is almost certainly an offensive downgrade from what they got from Duran/Duvall this season RF: free agent options are grim, and internal options don't project better than Verdugo DH: they could trade water by bringing back Turner, but he'll be a year older; or could move Yoshida to DH, which would be my preference, but then you're still hoping for a Yoshida bounceback; or they could sign Ohtani, but that uses up a massive chunk of change when pitching really needs to be their priority
None of these positions are really "holes" that need to be filled (even if Yoshida goes to DH, Duran can be the LFer). I think they can/will add an outfielder. Duvall seems like the best option; the only FAs who *might* project better would be Teoscar and Bellinger, both of whom are going to be appallingly expensive. But again, that's just a move to run in place.
Could they make a trade? Maybe. But how many prospects do you want to give up to improve from 2 WAR at a given position to 3-4 WAR or whatever? That's the "problem" with being okay at every position: no low-hanging fruit.
^This is why we need a new GM from outside the org. Someone who doesn't look at this 78-win roster and say "none of these positions are really holes." We need someone who has been in another FO and has looked at each player on our roster and thought, "I would maybe give up Player X for that guy," or even, "I would throw good prospects at them to get that guy." We need a fresh set of eyes. Er, are you under the impression that they're replacing *me* as the GM...? Regardless, the point is that the roster is such that it's going to be hard to make big gains, no matter which position they try to improve. I, too, would like someone who can deal effectively with that challenge; but I'm not sure what difference it makes to that question whether that person comes from inside or outside the organization.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 22, 2023 15:06:31 GMT -5
Sure, but that core is Devers/Casas/Bello/the not-quite-starters group, plus all the young talent in the pipeline. Duran fits in there if you buy that he’s taken a leap this year. But there seems to be a lot of “bring back Duvall/Turner” and “keep Verdugo or replace him with Abreu” sentiment and I just don’t feel like ownership wants to go into the season without significant improvements to the lineup. This team has a 102 wRC+, it’s not like there’s no room for the lineup to get better. I also don’t particularly want to be closing deals on too many big name free agent pitchers, so take that for whatever it’s worth. I want to see a Dipoto-type offseason of wheeling and dealing to reshape the roster around that core. I’ll be disappointed if they can’t swing any trades for pitching, and I think they’re gonna need to try to bring in at least one name in the outfield that’s a cut above what they have right now. The outfield was good this year, but it’s crying out for a real stud. The lineup is both not as good as you'd like it to be and weirdly hard to improve because it's adequate everywhere and the FA market sucks.
C: no real options for improving on McWong 1B: Casas will do 2B: no free agent options better than Urias 3B: Devers is an ok hitter SS: Story isn't going anywhere LF: have to hope for a Yoshida bounceback; free agent options are grim, and internal options don't project better than Yoshida
CF: they could tread water by bringing back Duvall, but he'll be a year older; Rafaela is almost certainly an offensive downgrade from what they got from Duran/Duvall this season RF: free agent options are grim, and internal options don't project better than Verdugo DH: they could trade water by bringing back Turner, but he'll be a year older; or could move Yoshida to DH, which would be my preference, but then you're still hoping for a Yoshida bounceback; or they could sign Ohtani, but that uses up a massive chunk of change when pitching really needs to be their priority
None of these positions are really "holes" that need to be filled (even if Yoshida goes to DH, Duran can be the LFer). I think they can/will add an outfielder. Duvall seems like the best option; the only FAs who *might* project better would be Teoscar and Bellinger, both of whom are going to be appallingly expensive. But again, that's just a move to run in place.
Could they make a trade? Maybe. But how many prospects do you want to give up to improve from 2 WAR at a given position to 3-4 WAR or whatever? That's the "problem" with being okay at every position: no low-hanging fruit.
This is why I want to eat a bad contract or two this offseason. The reason I like a Yelich/Burnes trade so much is that I think Yelich is the bad contract most likely to be decent, and it helps you bring in a top starter for limited prospect capital. Maybe then you can package Duran and one of the controllable pitchers for a controllable number 3. I’m curious how the Twins see the Buxton contract. He can’t stay healthy, so they probably want to get rid of it, but he’s so good when he plays that they may still want something good for him, I have no idea how he’s be valued in a trade. But if they want to get off that contract, even if he’s only good for 600 innings in center and 300 PAs/year, I think he’d be a good fit for the roster. Would they be willing to dump him as part of a Joe Ryan deal? The beauty of a strong farm/player development program is how much flexibility a good pipeline of talent gives you, since you can manage the payroll around that flow of cheap talent. It would be ludicrous to consider either of those deals if the organization were still in the shape it was in the 19/20 offseason, but it’s very doable now. Especially if ownership is willing to run high payrolls again.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 22, 2023 15:22:28 GMT -5
So the 102 wRC+ is based on the 2023 season roster, not the season-finishing roster. The team can reasonably expect the 2024 version of Story to be a big improvement over the 2023 cast at the shortstop position. Like, even if he's just a 2.5 WAR player, that's like two or three more wins right there. From there, while I agree there aren't obvious spots for big offensive improvements, there are obviously spots for marginal upgrades (backup catcher, second base), and for improvements on the defense all around. Those are going to supplement what likely (hopefully?) will be improvements to the starting pitching.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 22, 2023 15:26:54 GMT -5
^This is why we need a new GM from outside the org. Someone who doesn't look at this 78-win roster and say "none of these positions are really holes." We need someone who has been in another FO and has looked at each player on our roster and thought, "I would maybe give up Player X for that guy," or even, "I would throw good prospects at them to get that guy." We need a fresh set of eyes. Er, are you under the impression that they're replacing *me* as the GM...? Regardless, the point is that the roster is such that it's going to be hard to make big gains, no matter which position they try to improve. I, too, would like someone who can deal effectively with that challenge; but I'm not sure what difference it makes to that question whether that person comes from inside or outside the organization. C'mon, we all know who you really are...
My point is that someone from another org has a different insight into how much everyone on our roster is worth. People within the org know what offers they have turned down and what offers others have turned down, which is not quite the same as looking in from the outside and assigning values. This is part of the criticism that we've heard of Chaim. He set his price and didn't waver. Maybe an external candidate has less of a problem than an internal candidate moving Doogie or Turner or Sale for the offers that Chaim turned down (just examples that have been reported, not suggestions that those offers still exist - obviously, Turner will no longer be under contract). And maybe the team as a whole improves as a result.
And in terms of making gains, let's say you go out and trade for Trout (purely hypothetical unless LAA ownership changes). I think you're making a gain over convincing yourself that Doogie or Duvall are good enough that you don't need to make a change. I also think many people are looking at improving only via FA, rather than exchanging prospect capital and/or absorbing contracts for big-league roster pieces.
Edit: @chaim time and I clearly thinking alike
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Post by Guidas on Sept 22, 2023 15:30:04 GMT -5
The argument for trading Verdugo should only hinge on if you think you can use him (either alone or as part of a package) to upgrade the pitching staff. Anything else doesn't make sense to me, per the points above. I think you might add in trading him for prospects who can then be flipped in a larger package for an impact bat at an OF position (such as Luis Robert) or second base/SS (moving Story to whichever position isn't acquired). Doing this would eliminate one or more of the in-house prospects that another team may want, but who the new Sox FO wants to keep.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 22, 2023 15:30:53 GMT -5
The lineup is both not as good as you'd like it to be and weirdly hard to improve because it's adequate everywhere and the FA market sucks.
C: no real options for improving on McWong 1B: Casas will do 2B: no free agent options better than Urias 3B: Devers is an ok hitter SS: Story isn't going anywhere LF: have to hope for a Yoshida bounceback; free agent options are grim, and internal options don't project better than Yoshida
CF: they could tread water by bringing back Duvall, but he'll be a year older; Rafaela is almost certainly an offensive downgrade from what they got from Duran/Duvall this season RF: free agent options are grim, and internal options don't project better than Verdugo DH: they could trade water by bringing back Turner, but he'll be a year older; or could move Yoshida to DH, which would be my preference, but then you're still hoping for a Yoshida bounceback; or they could sign Ohtani, but that uses up a massive chunk of change when pitching really needs to be their priority
None of these positions are really "holes" that need to be filled (even if Yoshida goes to DH, Duran can be the LFer). I think they can/will add an outfielder. Duvall seems like the best option; the only FAs who *might* project better would be Teoscar and Bellinger, both of whom are going to be appallingly expensive. But again, that's just a move to run in place.
Could they make a trade? Maybe. But how many prospects do you want to give up to improve from 2 WAR at a given position to 3-4 WAR or whatever? That's the "problem" with being okay at every position: no low-hanging fruit.
This is why I want to eat a bad contract or two this offseason. T he reason I like a Yelich/Burnes trade so much is that I think Yelich is the bad contract most likely to be decent, and it helps you bring in a top starter for limited prospect capital. Maybe then you can package Duran and one of the controllable pitchers for a controllable number 3. I’m curious how the Twins see the Buxton contract. He can’t stay healthy, so they probably want to get rid of it, but he’s so good when he plays that they may still want something good for him, I have no idea how he’s be valued in a trade. But if they want to get off that contract, even if he’s only good for 600 innings in center and 300 PAs/year, I think he’d be a good fit for the roster. Would they be willing to dump him as part of a Joe Ryan deal? The beauty of a strong farm/player development program is how much flexibility a good pipeline of talent gives you, since you can manage the payroll around that flow of cheap talent. It would be ludicrous to consider either of those deals if the organization were still in the shape it was in the 19/20 offseason, but it’s very doable now. Especially if ownership is willing to run high payrolls again. It's a clever idea, but then all of a sudden you're talking about a lot of money tied up on a handful of guys through 2027 (Yelich, Story, Yoshida) with no guarantee you'd be getting much production out of them. Assuming they extend Burnes in this scenario, then add in him and Devers and you're at about $130 million/year on 5 guys locked in through 2027. I wouldn't love stacking up a bunch of contracts like that.
I suppose there's something to be said for the fact that the potential dead-money contracts all expire at the end of 2027, which isn't a ridiculously long time-frame; you could plan on going over in 2026 and '27 and then reset...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 22, 2023 15:37:14 GMT -5
This is why I want to eat a bad contract or two this offseason. T he reason I like a Yelich/Burnes trade so much is that I think Yelich is the bad contract most likely to be decent, and it helps you bring in a top starter for limited prospect capital. Maybe then you can package Duran and one of the controllable pitchers for a controllable number 3. I’m curious how the Twins see the Buxton contract. He can’t stay healthy, so they probably want to get rid of it, but he’s so good when he plays that they may still want something good for him, I have no idea how he’s be valued in a trade. But if they want to get off that contract, even if he’s only good for 600 innings in center and 300 PAs/year, I think he’d be a good fit for the roster. Would they be willing to dump him as part of a Joe Ryan deal? The beauty of a strong farm/player development program is how much flexibility a good pipeline of talent gives you, since you can manage the payroll around that flow of cheap talent. It would be ludicrous to consider either of those deals if the organization were still in the shape it was in the 19/20 offseason, but it’s very doable now. Especially if ownership is willing to run high payrolls again. It's a clever idea, but then all of a sudden you're talking about a lot of money tied up on a handful of guys through 2027 (Yelich, Story, Yoshida) with no guarantee you'd be getting much production out of them. Assuming they extend Burnes in this scenario, then add in him and Devers and you're at about $130 million/year on 5 guys locked in through 2027. I wouldn't love stacking up a bunch of contracts like that.
I suppose there's something to be said for the fact that the potential dead-money contracts all expire at the end of 2027, which isn't a ridiculously long time-frame; you could plan on going over in 2026 and '27 and then reset...
I have a feeling that Yoshida is more likely to be traded than Doogie, whose trade value is a slim fraction of what it was at the deadline.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 22, 2023 16:10:53 GMT -5
This is why I want to eat a bad contract or two this offseason. T he reason I like a Yelich/Burnes trade so much is that I think Yelich is the bad contract most likely to be decent, and it helps you bring in a top starter for limited prospect capital. Maybe then you can package Duran and one of the controllable pitchers for a controllable number 3. I’m curious how the Twins see the Buxton contract. He can’t stay healthy, so they probably want to get rid of it, but he’s so good when he plays that they may still want something good for him, I have no idea how he’s be valued in a trade. But if they want to get off that contract, even if he’s only good for 600 innings in center and 300 PAs/year, I think he’d be a good fit for the roster. Would they be willing to dump him as part of a Joe Ryan deal? The beauty of a strong farm/player development program is how much flexibility a good pipeline of talent gives you, since you can manage the payroll around that flow of cheap talent. It would be ludicrous to consider either of those deals if the organization were still in the shape it was in the 19/20 offseason, but it’s very doable now. Especially if ownership is willing to run high payrolls again. It's a clever idea, but then all of a sudden you're talking about a lot of money tied up on a handful of guys through 2027 (Yelich, Story, Yoshida) with no guarantee you'd be getting much production out of them. Assuming they extend Burnes in this scenario, then add in him and Devers and you're at about $130 million/year on 5 guys locked in through 2027. I wouldn't love stacking up a bunch of contracts like that.
I suppose there's something to be said for the fact that the potential dead-money contracts all expire at the end of 2027, which isn't a ridiculously long time-frame; you could plan on going over in 2026 and '27 and then reset...
It’s definitely a risk! But if it helps you hold onto your stud prospects then that mitigates a lot of the risk. And they’re on big contracts, but contracts that should be movable if they bounce back and you eat a little money in the trade. And like you said, they’re all on the same timeline, so if it goes belly-up then you’re in a decent spot to reset. My perspective is that I want to get as much pitching as I can without getting locked into a huge contract for one I’m not sold on (I don’t love the pitchers on the FA market this off-season, either) and without giving up a prospect haul that I’m likely to come out on the wrong end of. This is what I’ve been able to come up with.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 22, 2023 16:43:34 GMT -5
Not accepting realistic replies. Shohei Ohtani is the starting DH for your 2024 Red Sox and will be pitching when they make the playoffs.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 22, 2023 17:03:51 GMT -5
Not accepting realistic replies. Shohei Ohtani is the starting DH for your 2024 Red Sox and will be pitching when they make the playoffs. Well I guess Yoshida’s playing left next year. Back to the drawing board on which bad contract to eat.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 22, 2023 17:11:15 GMT -5
On a more serious note, I’ve been thinking for a while that we need a thread for the Ohtani and non-Ohtani scenarios. I’ve had a hunch that they really do want him if only because of how well his bat should play in Fenway, along with the marketing potential, of course. If the medical looks good and they think he can pitch long term, bring it on. He’s gonna have a 200 wRC+ in Fenway.
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