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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
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Post by incandenza on Nov 4, 2023 11:09:30 GMT -5
I guess I'll take a really, really uneducated stab at this. DH: Ohtani C: Wong 1b: Casas 2b: Merrifield Ss: Story 3b: Devers Lf: Yoshida Cf: Trout Rf: Abreu Rotation: Bieber, Montgomery (or the lefty Japanese pitcher), Sale, Bello, Crawfore, Pivetta Bullpen: Jansen, Martin, Houck, Whitlock, Winckowski, Schreiber, 2nd lefty to be determined. They'd be adding around $115 million in salary here? I think that's pretty unlikely. I won’t go into trade packages but I’m thinking Soto LF Garver C and sometimes DH (2 year deal) Devers 3B Adames SS(stop gap for Mayer) Casas 1B Story 2B Yoshida DH sometimes LF Rafaela CF Abreu RF Nola (5 years if possible) Sale Gray (3 years ) Bello Crawford Traded: Houck, Duran, and Verdugo along with potential prospects not named Mayer, Anthony, and Teel Full intention to extend Soto and let Adames walk at end of season Why it can work? Sale, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, etc is over $50 million falling off the books after the end of 2024 Gray, Story, Yoshida would all be gone and Nola on an expiring contract by the time extensions for potential guys like Teel, Anthony, and Mayer become a concern They'd be adding about $90 million in salary here while trading away a boatload of young talent for one-year rentals? I think that's pretty unlikely.
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 4, 2023 12:26:17 GMT -5
I guess I'll take a really, really uneducated stab at this. DH: Ohtani C: Wong 1b: Casas 2b: Merrifield Ss: Story 3b: Devers Lf: Yoshida Cf: Trout Rf: Abreu Rotation: Bieber, Montgomery (or the lefty Japanese pitcher), Sale, Bello, Crawfore, Pivetta Bullpen: Jansen, Martin, Houck, Whitlock, Winckowski, Schreiber, 2nd lefty to be determined. They'd be adding around $115 million in salary here? I think that's pretty unlikely. I won’t go into trade packages but I’m thinking Soto LF Garver C and sometimes DH (2 year deal) Devers 3B Adames SS(stop gap for Mayer) Casas 1B Story 2B Yoshida DH sometimes LF Rafaela CF Abreu RF Nola (5 years if possible) Sale Gray (3 years ) Bello Crawford Traded: Houck, Duran, and Verdugo along with potential prospects not named Mayer, Anthony, and Teel Full intention to extend Soto and let Adames walk at end of season Why it can work? Sale, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, etc is over $50 million falling off the books after the end of 2024 Gray, Story, Yoshida would all be gone and Nola on an expiring contract by the time extensions for potential guys like Teel, Anthony, and Mayer become a concern They'd be adding about $90 million in salary here while trading away a boatload of young talent for one-year rentals? I think that's pretty unlikely. Ehh I have a feeling the Sox will spend up to $267 million that is $30 million more the first threshold and $10 less before draft pick punishment Hard to gauge but I think Houck for Adames can get it done. 4 years of control for an SP would hard for the Brewers to turn down for a to be free agent who is good but not a star Soto, again the intent would be to resign him, I’d offer him the same deal as Devers. Would Verdugo, Bleis, Yorke, and Drohan get it done? Maybe, especially if they aim to stay competive in the short term. But I’m probably only offering that if we get an extension window I mean he had one year left, he will net them a package but nothing insane
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 4, 2023 13:30:29 GMT -5
I guess I'll take a really, really uneducated stab at this. DH: Ohtani C: Wong 1b: Casas 2b: Merrifield Ss: Story 3b: Devers Lf: Yoshida Cf: Trout Rf: Abreu Rotation: Bieber, Montgomery (or the lefty Japanese pitcher), Sale, Bello, Crawfore, Pivetta Bullpen: Jansen, Martin, Houck, Whitlock, Winckowski, Schreiber, 2nd lefty to be determined. They'd be adding around $115 million in salary here? I think that's pretty unlikely. I won’t go into trade packages but I’m thinking Soto LF Garver C and sometimes DH (2 year deal) Devers 3B Adames SS(stop gap for Mayer) Casas 1B Story 2B Yoshida DH sometimes LF Rafaela CF Abreu RF Nola (5 years if possible) Sale Gray (3 years ) Bello Crawford Traded: Houck, Duran, and Verdugo along with potential prospects not named Mayer, Anthony, and Teel Full intention to extend Soto and let Adames walk at end of season Why it can work? Sale, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, etc is over $50 million falling off the books after the end of 2024 Gray, Story, Yoshida would all be gone and Nola on an expiring contract by the time extensions for potential guys like Teel, Anthony, and Mayer become a concern They'd be adding about $90 million in salary here while trading away a boatload of young talent for one-year rentals? I think that's pretty unlikely. My predictions are pie in the sky but conceptually I think that's where Breslow might try to go. Their pitching needs two front line starters so I'm guessing a free agent signing and a trade. They cant keep the offense as is. It lacks middle of the order thump and it slants too left handed and Story is the only RH power bat threat they have and who knows how he'll hit next year? When I had the Sox trading for Trout I had them paying roughly half of his salary. But no I don't expect them to necessarily trade for Trout, but I do think they intend to add a RH power bat, probably in RF. I have them signing Ohtani, but it's not hard to see him in Dodgers blue or even with the Mets, but the Sox certainly are a possibility. Should they lose out on Ohtani then I see them going after Soto. Should that fail then perhaps Trout is the big RH bat. I have trouble seeing the Padres parting with Tatis. They need a RH vat to stick between Devers and Casas and if they want to really stuff the lineup then they get Soto or Ohtani. Obviously Soto costs less to the payroll in 2024 than Ohtani would. Like I said, Trout would be about a 20 million bat. Subtracting out Duvall and Verdugo that's not a huge dollar difference in 2024. Ideally we want YY, and if they get him then hes their free agent signing and they trade for another pitcher. So with Trout you pay an extra 5 - 7 million or so versus Verdugo and Duvall. Maybe add in 25 million for Soto, 25 million for YY, and another 10 - 15 million for a lesser starter, then there's another 70 million added to the payroll. The numbers get adjusted if its Ohtani. Maybe Duvall comes back instead of Trout or some other idea. I would think the Sox payroll will exceed 250 million. I think the Sox playing in front of an empty ballpark and getting as much attention is the media market as the local soccer team is kind of jarring for ownership. I think they realize that apathy has set in and they need to spend a lot more. What iteration Breslow does to fill these needs remains to be seen. My guess is he lands one of Ohtani, Soto, and Trout, although as a fan I'd love two of them, especially if Trout comes heavily subsidized. My guess is they land one of Yamamoto, Montgomery, Nola, lefty stater from Japan whose name Im too lazy to look up and there's a trade for another starter. Breslow has a lot if work to do and he knows it. Incremental marginal moves are not what he was hired for. Too what extent he tackles these issues remains to be seen but I'm very anxious to see what he does and if he can do this without turning them into the Mets payroll or decimating the farm system.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 4, 2023 13:47:40 GMT -5
They'd be adding around $115 million in salary here? I think that's pretty unlikely. They'd be adding about $90 million in salary here while trading away a boatload of young talent for one-year rentals? I think that's pretty unlikely. Ehh I have a feeling the Sox will spend up to $267 million that is $30 million more the first threshold and $10 less before draft pick punishment Hard to gauge but I think Houck for Adames can get it done. 4 years of control for an SP would hard for the Brewers to turn down for a to be free agent who is good but not a star Soto, again the intent would be to resign him, I’d offer him the same deal as Devers. Would Verdugo, Bleis, Yorke, and Drohan get it done? Maybe, especially if they aim to stay competive in the short term. But I’m probably only offering that if we get an extension window I mean he had one year left, he will net them a package but nothing insane I think the trade package might do it or is in the ballpark at least (though I don't think they get an extension contingency on it, that's not really a thing in baseball as far as I know), but Soto's not taking the Devers extension, he'll get a bigger deal than that.
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Post by bosoxkc on Nov 4, 2023 15:48:21 GMT -5
Food for thought
Trade: Yoshida Verdugo Houck Yorke
Get: Pitching (AAA 50FV Espino/Brown/Wicks)
Sale Yamamoto Montgomery Bello Crawford (deserves it) (Neither signing loses pick)
Jansen Martin Whitlock Pivetta Bernardino Mata (Rule 5) Schreiber +
Wong Casas Rafaela 2B Story Devers Duran Duvall Abreu Turner
Scott Dalbec Hamilton Valdez?
Way under tax with room to upgrade
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Post by thelpc on Nov 4, 2023 21:30:03 GMT -5
HITTERS:
1. Masataka Yoshida DH 2. Rafael Devers 3B 3. Fernando Tatis Jr. RF 4. Triston Casas 1B 5. Adam Duvall CF 6. Trevor Story SS 7. Wilyer Abreu LF 8. Whit Merrifield 2B 9. Connor Wong C
Bench: Reese McGuire, CJ Cron, Pablo Reyes, Rob Refsnyder
PITCHERS:
1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto 2. Yu Darvish 3. Brayan Bello 4. Chris Sale 5. Nick Pivetta
Bullpen: Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, John Schreiber, Josh Winckowski, Brennan Bernandino,
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 5, 2023 6:41:12 GMT -5
Ehh I have a feeling the Sox will spend up to $267 million that is $30 million more the first threshold and $10 less before draft pick punishment [...] This seems right to me. Put another way: I cannot think of any reason they would not spend 260-270M in 2024.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 5, 2023 6:49:40 GMT -5
Ehh I have a feeling the Sox will spend up to $267 million that is $30 million more the first threshold and $10 less before draft pick punishment [...] This seems right to me. Put another way: I cannot think of any reason they would not spend 260-270M in 2024. Well I can think of one since it remains to be seen if Henry and Co. will open up the checkbook to that level. I do think they spend over the luxury tax so at that point its kind of in for a penny in for a pound territory but it is still Henry's money and he'll have final say on it.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 5, 2023 7:45:28 GMT -5
This seems right to me. Put another way: I cannot think of any reason they would not spend 260-270M in 2024. Well I can think of one since it remains to be seen if Henry and Co. will open up the checkbook to that level. I do think they spend over the luxury tax so at that point its kind of in for a penny in for a pound territory but it is still Henry's money and he'll have final say on it. It remains to be seen? “Henry and co” paid for a top 4 or 5 (often 1 or 2) payroll from 2004 to 2019. This idea that they are tight-fisted has no merit. They don’t like to waste money, but with the tax reset there is no reason for them not to spend.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 5, 2023 8:04:19 GMT -5
They will spend, especially for shorter term deals. The question becomes how willing are they to take on the deals where you get plenty of value up front but get locked into those rough back end years of decline.
Seems like you have to be willing to do that to sign a star player given the competition to sign him.
Paying Ohtani 50 million at age 31 is one thing but paying him that for his age 38 to 41 seasons are another. If the Sox aren't willing to, there will be another team that does.
This isnt me saying they should or shouldn't. This is me saying it's the cost of doing business. Not all back end deals end horribly. David Ortiz aged gracefully to the point opposing pitchers probably would have banded together to pay Ortiz to retire so they wouldn't have to face him anymore, lol
The Sox have to use their best judgment and it does explain why Bloom was more willing to risk signing Devers than Bogaerts or even Betts, that Devers final seasons on the contract only took him to age 36.
We will see where Breslow's judgments lie. After all some players effectiveness wears off in the mid 30s while others can age slower in their late 30, like a Dwight Evans for example.
So while I have no doubt the Sox will be willing to go to a 260 plus million payroll, I wonder how much stomach they have for potential long term dead money and if Breslow can find a way to still get his targets and minimize that issue.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 5, 2023 9:08:33 GMT -5
Well I can think of one since it remains to be seen if Henry and Co. will open up the checkbook to that level. I do think they spend over the luxury tax so at that point its kind of in for a penny in for a pound territory but it is still Henry's money and he'll have final say on it. It remains to be seen? “Henry and co” paid for a top 4 or 5 (often 1 or 2) payroll from 2004 to 2019. This idea that they are tight-fisted has no merit. They don’t like to waste money, but with the tax reset there is no reason for them not to spend. I'm not calling them cheap. They'll spend money but they haven't gone north of 250 so yes it remains to be seen if they'll allow it to 270+.
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Post by jdb on Nov 5, 2023 10:06:08 GMT -5
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 5, 2023 10:48:09 GMT -5
If I were in Preller’s shoes, I would also want to dump the bad, long contracts that I gave out last year rather than the best player on the team, for whom I gave up one of the biggest prospect hauls in the history of the game. I have a feeling rival executives are not going to play along, though. “Ohtani actually really loves it in Anaheim and would be happy to stay” sounds like peak Bob nonsense.
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Post by kwodes on Nov 5, 2023 11:09:02 GMT -5
Ideal offseason:
1) Sign Yamamoto and Sonny Gray 2) trade for Soto (and extend him) 3) trade for willy adames 4) extend casas and bello 5) trade from lefty OF surplus for a high end lefty RP 6) resign Duvall
CF Duran LF Soto SS Adames 3B Devers RF Duvall 1B Casas DH Yoshida 2B Story C McWong
SP Yamamoto SP Gray SP Sale SP Bello SP Pivetta (kutter and Houck are part of Soto and adames packages)
RP Whitlock RP Jansen RP Martin RP LEFTY RP Bernardino RP Mata (to start the year) RP Schrieber RP ?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 5, 2023 11:11:32 GMT -5
Tatis is target #1 for me
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 5, 2023 11:15:32 GMT -5
Padres have already set their fans expectations with press leaks that Soto is probably getting traded, and then leaked that the Cubs and Yankees have been talking to them about him
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Post by kwodes on Nov 5, 2023 11:16:13 GMT -5
Tatis is target #1 for me Agreed, I just think Soto is more likely. Tatis is the 1 guy I'd give up mayer/Anthony for
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 5, 2023 12:47:13 GMT -5
Tatis is target #1 for me Agreed, I just think Soto is more likely. Tatis is the 1 guy I'd give up mayer/Anthony for It take a contract like Cronenworth sign Garver Garver C (sometimes DH) Devers 3B Tatis RF Casas 1B Story SS Yoshida DH Rafaela CF Cronenworth 2B Abreu LF Tatia really is perfect now and for the long term with Devers but it’s so hard to gauge the padres and what they might do with him
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 5, 2023 12:51:57 GMT -5
Everybody is so busy talking about Tatis vs Soto, how negative is Cronenworth, is Joe Musgrove a good or bad target, etc etc that they’re missing San Diego’s real prize, which is Don Orsillo. Get it done, Craig!
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 5, 2023 16:42:27 GMT -5
I miss Orsillo every single game. But in reality, with his other half/good friend Remdog enjoying Paradise, I think Don will continue to hold the Padres public persona together. Which is needed now more than ever. Besides, San Diego Bay is a much better spot for his feet-driven yacht. Think of all the waterfront restaurants he can pedal to.
Also, would really love to watch Rafaella and Duran Batting #9 and 1 causing havoc in front of Devers, Tatis and Casas. That would also be quite a defensive OF. Use Duval and Dugo’s $15M+ to help subsidize Tatis, with Ref and Abreu as as 4 and 5 OF. What an OF. What a lineup.
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Post by kwodes on Nov 5, 2023 17:12:29 GMT -5
Tatis is target #1 for me just thought of this... would you trade Rafaela, Anthony, kutter, Houck, Yorke, bleis for Soto AND Tatis? Damn that would be nuts.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 5, 2023 23:59:59 GMT -5
Tatis is target #1 for me just thought of this... would you trade Rafaela, Anthony, kutter, Houck, Yorke, bleis for Soto AND Tatis? Damn that would be nuts. If the Sox could extend Soto then yes. If Anthony develops as hoped for would he be as good overall as Soto? Soto could hit more than 600 HRs in his career. This theoretical deal doesnt even contain Mayer. If Bleis developed would he be as good as Tatis. Houck, Kutter, Rafaela, and Yorke are all useful players so it's a lot to give up but they're easier to replace than guys like Soto and Tatis. I think others would say that's way too much and you're on a big payroll hook and have put a big dent in the farm system and I wouldn't say they're wrong. I just think you're talking about very young superstars who could well be on a Cooperstown path. You get talent like that locked up, you can replace the Rafaelas, Houcks, Kutters, and Yorkes of the world even if that's easier said than done.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 6, 2023 1:36:30 GMT -5
Tatis is too much of a knucklehead for my taste. He's also played in only 414 of a possible 708 games in his five year career. No thanks.
I like Soto more but I'd prefer to wait for him to hit FA -- and he's going to get PAID on a decade-plus deal, so I would want to be confident that signing him doesn't drain the pitching budget. If Crawford and Bello continue to takes steps forward in '24 and Houck finally blossoms, it might be more feasible but how many more cheap pitchers are coming in behind them? Kind of rules out Ohtani, too...
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 6, 2023 6:24:52 GMT -5
As great as Soto and tatis are it feels like the Sox would just run the risk of turning into the Padres if they acquired both and immediately got Soto to sign an extension. It's very hard to have a well rounded team when you have 3 guys signed to long term mega deals and on top of that gut your farm in a mega trade.
I'd take one of Soto or tatis in a heartbeat in a reasonable trade but I don't think I'd want both as crazy as that kind of sounds in my brain.
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 6, 2023 8:25:34 GMT -5
As great as Soto and tatis are it feels like the Sox would just run the risk of turning into the Padres if they acquired both and immediately got Soto to sign an extension. It's very hard to have a well rounded team when you have 3 guys signed to long term mega deals and on top of that gut your farm in a mega trade. I'd take one of Soto or tatis in a heartbeat in a reasonable trade but I don't think I'd want both as crazy as that kind of sounds in my brain. Yeah definitely no both, definitely yes to one if possible
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