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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 3, 2023 10:05:03 GMT -5
give us our new manny, Fernando Tatis Jr He certainly would check two boxes the new POBO specifically pointed to as a need for the team, RHH and really good defensively in RF. Agreed, agree Musgrove would be nice as well but the Sox would almost have to trade Yoshi for salary purposes, especially if they are looking to dump Cronenworth I really don’t know what package with Yoshida that it would take to bring in musgrove, Tatis, and Cronenworth
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 3, 2023 10:09:52 GMT -5
Yikes
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 3, 2023 10:11:29 GMT -5
He certainly would check two boxes the new POBO specifically pointed to as a need for the team, RHH and really good defensively in RF. Agreed, agree Musgrove would be nice as well but the Sox would almost have to trade Yoshi for salary purposes, especially if they are looking to dump Cronenworth I really don’t know what package with Yoshida that it would take to bring in musgrove, Tatis, and Cronenworth I don't think there is any move that would make sense for the Padres to take back Yoshida and his contract. He would negate the salary dump aspect quite a bit and not like he's an expiring either. Also I don't really think they'd theoretically have to trade Yoshi if they were to somehow reel in Tatis and Musgrove. Probably would look to deal Verdugo at that point though so Tatis can play RF.
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 3, 2023 11:00:48 GMT -5
Agreed, agree Musgrove would be nice as well but the Sox would almost have to trade Yoshi for salary purposes, especially if they are looking to dump Cronenworth I really don’t know what package with Yoshida that it would take to bring in musgrove, Tatis, and Cronenworth I don't think there is any move that would make sense for the Padres to take back Yoshida and his contract. He would negate the salary dump aspect quite a bit and not like he's an expiring either. Also I don't really think they'd theoretically have to trade Yoshi if they were to somehow reel in Tatis and Musgrove. Probably would look to deal Verdugo at that point though so Tatis can play RF. True maybe Jansen, Verdugo, Duran, Houck, Drohan, Yorke, and Bleis For Musgrove, Tatis, and Cronenworth? That like and immediate $25 million in savings for 2024 These trades get hard to predict because it’s hard to know how much the padres would value shedding the salary I mean they are shedding like $400 in total, getting immediate and decent replacements, two which are young and cheap along with a quality prospect haul They get a 1 year closer to replace Hader Gives them great flexibility on a Soto trade Probably leaves Gray as a potential SP target depending how the money works out and how much above the luxury tax we might want to go We would have Sale, Martin, Pivetta falling off after next offseason which woulr free towards $40 million Probably my last hypothetical here with the padres to not hijack the thread, but there is definitely a match here between the two teams in some sort of capacity
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 3, 2023 11:10:18 GMT -5
I don't think there is any move that would make sense for the Padres to take back Yoshida and his contract. He would negate the salary dump aspect quite a bit and not like he's an expiring either. Also I don't really think they'd theoretically have to trade Yoshi if they were to somehow reel in Tatis and Musgrove. Probably would look to deal Verdugo at that point though so Tatis can play RF. True maybe Jansen, Verdugo, Duran, Houck, Drohan, Yorke, and Bleis For Musgrove, Tatis, and Cronenworth? That like and immediate $25 million in savings for 2024 These trades get hard to predict because it’s hard to know how much the padres would value shedding the salary I mean they are shedding like $400 in total, getting immediate and decent replacements, two which are young and cheap along with a quality prospect haul They get a 1 year closer to replace Hader Gives them great flexibility on a Soto trade Probably leaves Gray as a potential SP target depending how the money works out and how much above the luxury tax we might want to go We would have Sale, Martin, Pivetta falling off after next offseason which woulr free towards $40 million Probably my last hypothetical here with the padres to not hijack the thread, but there is definitely a match here between the two teams in some sort of capacity Yep trades are hard to predict especially ones with this many moving parts. I would think if they wanted to take back a bullpen arm they'd want Martin over Jansen since he makes about half as much as Jansen and is probably better, but ha yea we've probably done enough to hijack the thread with the back and forth. I'll just leave it as this, I would love to see the Sox be able to snag either Tatis or Juan Soto from the Padres if they indeed do need to shed a good chunk of change from their payroll for this coming season. If the Padres are open for business I'd have to think the Sox could line up just about as well as anyone in the league for a deal to be done.
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 3, 2023 12:21:40 GMT -5
The odds of Fernando Tatis Jr. coming to the Boston Red Sox for a trade package that doesn’t include one of Mayer, Teel, and Anthony are probably pretty close to 0%. I guess you can never say never, but I just can’t see an offer without one of those as a headliner beating out what other teams would offer for him.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 3, 2023 12:52:32 GMT -5
Tatis is a star on a pretty team friendly deal. San Diego would be stupid to trade him IMO. They have all these long term commitments that they’re stuck with, why unload the only smart move they made? I think trading Mayer is pretty much off the table because SS is a position of such need, but given Teel’s fairly modest ceiling, I think trading him for a star righty bat would be plenty palatable. If he was the headliner, it would be pretty hard to turn that down IMO.
The Padres should just trade Soto. There’s 1 year left on his deal, you probably won’t extend or sign him, and dumping Cronenworth is still plenty possible in a Soto trade.
Their best case scenario would be their version of the Punto trade in which they could offload Machado or Bogaerts too, but those contracts are so horrific I think that’s a pipe dream. If they’re desperate to cut payroll they could add Musgrove, but he’s been really good when healthy so I’m not sure they would even want to.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 3, 2023 13:54:18 GMT -5
Let's not let this thread stray too far into trade speculation. I get there's smoke with regards to SD but I don't want this to devolve into everyone's Tatis proposal.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 3, 2023 16:46:06 GMT -5
Let's not let this thread stray too far into trade speculation. I get there's smoke with regards to SD but I don't want this to devolve into everyone's Tatis proposal. If only there was a place for that
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 3, 2023 17:32:22 GMT -5
Turner declined his option, as expected. Love him but hard for me to see a great roster fit. If they're gonna bring a righty free agent back I think Duvall makes more sense.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 3, 2023 17:45:50 GMT -5
Turner declined his option, as expected. Love him but hard for me to see a great roster fit. If they're gonna bring a righty free agent back I think Duvall makes more sense. I agree Duvall makes sense to play OF especially since he can spell Rafaela in CF, but as someone who isn’t sold on Yoshida as an everyday DH, I wouldn’t mind seeing Turner back at all. I think one of he or Hoskins would be nice to have as a RHH. I’d add Soler to that list potentially too, but he has more of a spotty track record and probably gets the longest contract of those 3.
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Post by kwodes on Nov 3, 2023 17:51:00 GMT -5
Turner declined his option, as expected. Love him but hard for me to see a great roster fit. If they're gonna bring a righty free agent back I think Duvall makes more sense. team declined the kluber option as well.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 3, 2023 18:27:44 GMT -5
Turner declined his option, as expected. Love him but hard for me to see a great roster fit. If they're gonna bring a righty free agent back I think Duvall makes more sense. I agree Duvall makes sense to play OF especially since he can spell Rafaela in CF, but as someone who isn’t sold on Yoshida as an everyday DH, I wouldn’t mind seeing Turner back at all. I think one of he or Hoskins would be nice to have as a RHH. I’d add Soler to that list potentially too, but he has more of a spotty track record and probably gets the longest contract of those 3. I just think Yoshida makes too much for them to be giving him up as a full time player already. And if he's not the DH it means he's in left, which could be okay but I think it would mean trading Duran, unless the team wants to play Duran in right and move Verdugo, but they literally didn't play him in right at all this season. A Duran trade wouldn't shock me for exactly this discussion, but I really like watching him play and I'm hoping against that So obviously my underlying assumptions here are: 1) The team will not give up on Yoshida full time yet, and 2) Duran playing centerfield is not an acceptable plan A, YMMV on those.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 3, 2023 18:58:56 GMT -5
I agree Duvall makes sense to play OF especially since he can spell Rafaela in CF, but as someone who isn’t sold on Yoshida as an everyday DH, I wouldn’t mind seeing Turner back at all. I think one of he or Hoskins would be nice to have as a RHH. I’d add Soler to that list potentially too, but he has more of a spotty track record and probably gets the longest contract of those 3. I just think Yoshida makes too much for them to be giving him up as a full time player already. And if he's not the DH it means he's in left, which could be okay but I think it would mean trading Duran, unless the team wants to play Duran in right and move Verdugo, but they literally didn't play him in right at all this season. A Duran trade wouldn't shock me for exactly this discussion, but I really like watching him play and I'm hoping against that So obviously my underlying assumptions here are: 1) The team will not give up on Yoshida full time yet, and 2) Duran playing centerfield is not an acceptable plan A, YMMV on those. If they go into the season relying on their 3 biggest xwOBA over performers (Yoshida, Duran, and Duvall) I think they’re going to get really hurt by regression. There’s a very small chance all 3 repeat their success from 2023. And you’re putting more pressure on that group by moving one to DH. I just don’t see how that would end well for the Red Sox considering they’re all but guaranteed for weak production at 2B and C already. It’s hard to get a read on Duran, because he could regress both offensively and defensively, but he’s valuable on the basepaths and he’s young with control. They have a lot of outfielders, especially LHH, but they all have low floors besides Verdugo (who also doesn’t appear to have much of a ceiling conversely). I think it’s a weird situation because the team is so underwhelming when it comes to the talent at every single position besides 3B and 1B. Rafaela (plus Abreu) hitting the ground running would be huge, but you can’t really assume that. Without Turner, this offense looks like an uglier version of this year, in which you could argue a few guys got substantially lucky and are due for regression. At SS, 2B, and C we’ll be lucky for 100 wRC+s, likely the same goes for CF, Yoshida would be a ground ball machine DH that doesn’t walk. Where is the upside?
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Nov 3, 2023 19:02:09 GMT -5
Saying “The Padres!” like “The Aristrocrats!” is gonna be so hot next year
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Post by incandenza on Nov 3, 2023 19:35:13 GMT -5
I just think Yoshida makes too much for them to be giving him up as a full time player already. And if he's not the DH it means he's in left, which could be okay but I think it would mean trading Duran, unless the team wants to play Duran in right and move Verdugo, but they literally didn't play him in right at all this season. A Duran trade wouldn't shock me for exactly this discussion, but I really like watching him play and I'm hoping against that So obviously my underlying assumptions here are: 1) The team will not give up on Yoshida full time yet, and 2) Duran playing centerfield is not an acceptable plan A, YMMV on those. If they go into the season relying on their 3 biggest xwOBA over performers (Yoshida, Duran, and Duvall) I think they’re going to get really hurt by regression. There’s a very small chance all 3 repeat their success from 2023. And you’re putting more pressure on that group by moving one to DH. I just don’t see how that would end well for the Red Sox considering they’re all but guaranteed for weak production at 2B and C already. It’s hard to get a read on Duran, because he could regress both offensively and defensively, but he’s valuable on the basepaths and he’s young with control. They have a lot of outfielders, especially LHH, but they all have low floors besides Verdugo (who also doesn’t appear to have much of a ceiling conversely). I think it’s a weird situation because the team is so underwhelming when it comes to the talent at every single position besides 3B and 1B. Rafaela (plus Abreu) hitting the ground running would be huge, but you can’t really assume that. Without Turner, this offense looks like an uglier version of this year, in which you could argue a few guys got substantially lucky and are due for regression. At SS, 2B, and C we’ll be lucky for 100 wRC+s, likely the same goes for CF, Yoshida would be a ground ball machine DH that doesn’t walk. Where is the upside? I share a lot of those general concerns about the offense, but given Yoshida's batted ball profile and Duran's speed I bet their xwOBA overperformances are sustainable to some degree. And I wouldn't assume Yoshida is just going to be the worst version of him that we've seen as you seem to be doing. Also Devers and Story underperformed their xwOBAs, so there's room for positive regression there.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 4, 2023 8:30:09 GMT -5
I just think Yoshida makes too much for them to be giving him up as a full time player already. And if he's not the DH it means he's in left, which could be okay but I think it would mean trading Duran, unless the team wants to play Duran in right and move Verdugo, but they literally didn't play him in right at all this season. A Duran trade wouldn't shock me for exactly this discussion, but I really like watching him play and I'm hoping against that So obviously my underlying assumptions here are: 1) The team will not give up on Yoshida full time yet, and 2) Duran playing centerfield is not an acceptable plan A, YMMV on those. If they go into the season relying on their 3 biggest xwOBA over performers (Yoshida, Duran, and Duvall) I think they’re going to get really hurt by regression. There’s a very small chance all 3 repeat their success from 2023. And you’re putting more pressure on that group by moving one to DH. I just don’t see how that would end well for the Red Sox considering they’re all but guaranteed for weak production at 2B and C already. It’s hard to get a read on Duran, because he could regress both offensively and defensively, but he’s valuable on the basepaths and he’s young with control. They have a lot of outfielders, especially LHH, but they all have low floors besides Verdugo (who also doesn’t appear to have much of a ceiling conversely). I think it’s a weird situation because the team is so underwhelming when it comes to the talent at every single position besides 3B and 1B. Rafaela (plus Abreu) hitting the ground running would be huge, but you can’t really assume that. Without Turner, this offense looks like an uglier version of this year, in which you could argue a few guys got substantially lucky and are due for regression. At SS, 2B, and C we’ll be lucky for 100 wRC+s, likely the same goes for CF, Yoshida would be a ground ball machine DH that doesn’t walk. Where is the upside? Well staying on the theme of predicting the 2024 roster I’ll ageee with you that only two of Verdugo/Duran/Yoshida will be on it. I kind of am leaning towards Duran being the one who moves, but we’ll see. To the question of where the offensive upside is though, I think there’s reasonable upside on 2023 performances from Devers, Yoshida (the most obvious one given his sudden drop off remember he had a nearly 140 wRC+ in late July), Story and Urias (over the shortstop/2B positions as a whole) and to lesser extents Verdugo and Wong. That shouldn’t be enough to go into the season with, I do hope they add a strong bat, but I also don’t think it’s an entirely hopeless unit.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 4, 2023 8:52:35 GMT -5
I guess I'll take a really, really uneducated stab at this.
DH: Ohtani C: Wong 1b: Casas 2b: Merrifield Ss: Story 3b: Devers Lf: Yoshida Cf: Trout Rf: Abreu
Rotation: Bieber, Montgomery (or the lefty Japanese pitcher), Sale, Bello, Crawfore, Pivetta
Bullpen: Jansen, Martin, Houck, Whitlock, Winckowski, Schreiber, 2nd lefty to be determined.
I'm guessing Ohtani is plan A, but if they fail to get him, then Soto becomes plan B.
I'm guessing that if the Sox have a shot at a partially subsidized Trout they take a crack at him to balance out their lineup as I think hed be easier to get than Tatis.
I'm guessing Bieber matches up better for the Sox than Burnes in a trade.
So I'll guess Valdez and Rafaela and others go in a deal for a substantially subsidized Trout (maybe half), and will generate a lot of controversy here based on Trout's worrisome trade history.
I'm guessing Duran and Verdugo both go in a deal to Cleveland for Bieber and perhaps a Cleveland reliever?
If course if Ohtabi heads to the Dodgers, then I think the Sox move in on Soto although theyll have competition.
Maybe instead of Bieber they use Duran, Verdugo and others to fetch Musgraves.
If the Sox do indeed trade Valdez but hang on to Yorke I'm guessing they sign Merrifield to bridge the gap to Yorke.
There feels like there are now many possible ways they could go to obtain impact, balance and lengthen the lineup, particularly from the middle of the order, hopefully stabilize the defense, while strengthening the top of the rotation and sorting out the hybrid guys as to who consistently starts and who is a bullpen member only. Breslows judgment with the pitchers he is willing or not willing to trade will also be interesting.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 4, 2023 9:08:35 GMT -5
I avoid Shane Bieber like he’s the bubonic plague, if they trade for him over literally any other high end pitching target I will probably cry tears of sadness
He’s not that good anymore and he’s having arm problems! His strikeouts/9 has almost been cut in half from 3 years ago and it has declined each year. Please do not trade significant assets for a guy clearly in decline with a bad arm.
Musgrave over him FOR SURE, 8 days a week
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 4, 2023 9:21:20 GMT -5
I avoid Shane Bieber like he’s the bubonic plague, if they trade for him over literally any other high end pitching target I will probably cry tears of sadness He’s not that good anymore and he’s having arm problems! His strikeouts/9 has almost been cut in half from 3 years ago and it has declined each year. Please do not trade significant assets for a guy clearly in decline with a bad arm. Musgrave over him FOR SURE, 8 days a week I'll assume Breslow will judge pitching better than me
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 4, 2023 9:22:10 GMT -5
I won’t go into trade packages but I’m thinking
Soto LF Garver C and sometimes DH (2 year deal) Devers 3B Adames SS(stop gap for Mayer) Casas 1B Story 2B Yoshida DH sometimes LF Rafaela CF Abreu RF
Nola (5 years if possible) Sale Gray (3 years ) Bello Crawford
Traded: Houck, Duran, and Verdugo along with potential prospects not named Mayer, Anthony, and Teel
Full intention to extend Soto and let Adames walk at end of season
Why it can work? Sale, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, etc is over $50 million falling off the books after the end of 2024
Gray, Story, Yoshida would all be gone and Nola on an expiring contract by the time extensions for potential guys like Teel, Anthony, and Mayer become a concern
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 4, 2023 9:22:36 GMT -5
I avoid Shane Bieber like he’s the bubonic plague, if they trade for him over literally any other high end pitching target I will probably cry tears of sadness He’s not that good anymore and he’s having arm problems! His strikeouts/9 has almost been cut in half from 3 years ago and it has declined each year. Please do not trade significant assets for a guy clearly in decline with a bad arm. Musgrave over him FOR SURE, 8 days a week I'll assume Breslow will judge pitching better than me And also me too lol
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 4, 2023 9:32:44 GMT -5
I won’t go into trade packages but I’m thinking Soto LF Garver C and sometimes DH (2 year deal) Devers 3B Adames SS(stop gap for Mayer) Casas 1B Story 2B Yoshida DH sometimes LF Rafaela CF Abreu RF Nola (5 years if possible) Sale Gray (3 years ) Bello Crawford Traded: Houck, Duran, and Verdugo along with potential prospects not named Mayer, Anthony, and Teel Full intention to extend Soto and let Adames walk at end of season Why it can work? Sale, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, etc is over $50 million falling off the books after the end of 2024 Gray, Story, Yoshida would all be gone and Nola on an expiring contract by the time extensions for potential guys like Teel, Anthony, and Mayer become a concern Adames is an interesting target, I wouldn't hate that move, one of the few middle infielders on expiring deals who would be a near-certain upgrade over Urias, and his spray chart overlayed on Fenway is beautiful. I think it would get really expensive trade wise though, and moves Story off of short where he might be the best defender in baseball.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 4, 2023 10:43:34 GMT -5
I won’t go into trade packages but I’m thinking Soto LF Garver C and sometimes DH (2 year deal) Devers 3B Adames SS(stop gap for Mayer) Casas 1B Story 2B Yoshida DH sometimes LF Rafaela CF Abreu RF Nola (5 years if possible) Sale Gray (3 years ) Bello Crawford Traded: Houck, Duran, and Verdugo along with potential prospects not named Mayer, Anthony, and Teel Full intention to extend Soto and let Adames walk at end of season Why it can work? Sale, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, etc is over $50 million falling off the books after the end of 2024 Gray, Story, Yoshida would all be gone and Nola on an expiring contract by the time extensions for potential guys like Teel, Anthony, and Mayer become a concern Adames is an interesting target, I wouldn't hate that move, one of the few middle infielders on expiring deals who would be a near-certain upgrade over Urias, and his spray chart overlayed on Fenway is beautiful. I think it would get really expensive trade wise though, and moves Story off of short where he might be the best defender in baseball. I wouldn't hate adames but id add, if they did trade for adames and Story is deemed a better defensive SS then they'd simply just play adames at 2nd. I'm not sure one year of adames is going to cost a huge package either.
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 4, 2023 10:50:32 GMT -5
I’ve read that Adames is the upcoming FA the Brewers most want to keep, so I doubt he’s available for anything less than a haul. One that probably isn’t a good idea to give up for a guy about to hit FA.
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