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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
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Post by costpet on Nov 6, 2023 8:55:05 GMT -5
Sign Yamato, make Sale the closer, trade Jansen to a solid starter.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 6, 2023 9:07:57 GMT -5
Sign Yamato, make Sale the closer, trade Jansen to a solid starter. I've got about as good a chance of winning the powerball as there is they'd make Sale the closer. Heck Cora already said if healthy Sale is the opening day starter for 2024 which is a silly thing to say but clearly points that he's going to be in the rotation and rightfully so.
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Post by WayBackWasdin on Nov 6, 2023 9:35:42 GMT -5
I'm a long-time lurker, but I haven't seen this logic laid out so I want to put it here. Realistically 2024 is a big step forward year, but likely not a world series favorite year. Luxury tax is reset, prospect war chest is full, and we have a decent MLB roster base to work from - at least on offense. 2025 seems like the 'we're back' year.
So operating under that assumption, doesn't Ohtani make a ton more sense? By signing Ohtani in 2024 you get your thumper bat just for money and have an ace coming in 2025. After signing Ohtani, I think you take the prospect war chest and trade for an ace. You have Ohtani's bat this year, an ace this year, and then next offseason you're baking in another ace. Not to mention many of the positional prospects we have will be arriving around 2025 pending they are not involved in any trade for an ace.
I know what Ohtani actually signs for is a huge variable risk-wise, but the idea of Ohtani makes a ton of sense (to me at least) when you broaden the horizon a little. Thoughts?
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Post by incandenza on Nov 6, 2023 9:56:16 GMT -5
I'm a long-time lurker, but I haven't seen this logic laid out so I want to put it here. Realistically 2024 is a big step forward year, but likely not a world series favorite year. Luxury tax is reset, prospect war chest is full, and we have a decent MLB roster base to work from - at least on offense. 2025 seems like the 'we're back' year. So operating under that assumption, doesn't Ohtani make a ton more sense? By signing Ohtani in 2024 you get your thumper bat just for money and have an ace coming in 2025. After signing Ohtani, I think you take the prospect war chest and trade for an ace. You have Ohtani's bat this year, an ace this year, and then next offseason you're baking in another ace. Not to mention many of the positional prospects we have will be arriving around 2025 pending they are not involved in any trade for an ace. I know what Ohtani actually signs for is a huge variable risk-wise, but the idea of Ohtani makes a ton of sense (to me at least) when you broaden the horizon a little. Thoughts? I think the problem with both signing Ohtani and trading prospects for an ace is that then you're spending extra cash on both ends: you're signing most likely the most expensive contract in the history of the game, and you're giving away the big stores of surplus value for the future. (And if you're trading for an ace, you are giving up at least one and maybe two of Mayer, Anthony, and Teel.)
On the other hand, I'm intrigued by the idea of signing Ohtani and then rounding out the 2024 rotation with, say, Sonny Gray and a mid-tier Seth Lugo type or something. That's a viable rotation for 2024, with Sale, Bello, Gray, Lugo, Pivetta, and Crawford, with Houck and Whitlock getting a lot of innings too. A lot of money would be tied up through 2027 between Ohtani, Devers, Story, and Yoshida, but they ought to be getting a lot of value, and more each year, out of cost-controlled players at C, 1B, middle infield, and outfield.
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 6, 2023 10:23:11 GMT -5
Just an fyi we can technically start signing people at 5pm today. Certainly wouldn’t expect anything but we start this evening
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 6, 2023 10:35:36 GMT -5
Just an fyi we can technically start signing people at 5pm today. Certainly wouldn’t expect anything but we start this evening I'll add that I read something along the lines that Yamamoto is expected to be posted this week and the process takes 50 days from posting (I may be off somewhat on the timing) so people shouldn't expect to be seeing where he's going until closer to new years.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 6, 2023 11:42:28 GMT -5
Just an fyi we can technically start signing people at 5pm today. Certainly wouldn’t expect anything but we start this evening I'll add that I read something along the lines that Yamamoto is expected to be posted this week and the process takes 50 days from posting (I may be off somewhat on the timing) so people shouldn't expect to be seeing where he's going until closer to new years. 45 from posting
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Post by asm19 on Nov 6, 2023 12:16:48 GMT -5
I'm a long-time lurker, but I haven't seen this logic laid out so I want to put it here. Realistically 2024 is a big step forward year, but likely not a world series favorite year. Luxury tax is reset, prospect war chest is full, and we have a decent MLB roster base to work from - at least on offense. 2025 seems like the 'we're back' year. So operating under that assumption, doesn't Ohtani make a ton more sense? By signing Ohtani in 2024 you get your thumper bat just for money and have an ace coming in 2025. After signing Ohtani, I think you take the prospect war chest and trade for an ace. You have Ohtani's bat this year, an ace this year, and then next offseason you're baking in another ace. Not to mention many of the positional prospects we have will be arriving around 2025 pending they are not involved in any trade for an ace. I know what Ohtani actually signs for is a huge variable risk-wise, but the idea of Ohtani makes a ton of sense (to me at least) when you broaden the horizon a little. Thoughts? Don' threaten me with a good time
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Post by ephus on Nov 6, 2023 12:19:57 GMT -5
Just an fyi we can technically start signing people at 5pm today. Certainly wouldn’t expect anything but we start this evening I'll add that I read something along the lines that Yamamoto is expected to be posted this week and the process takes 50 days from posting (I may be off somewhat on the timing) so people shouldn't expect to be seeing where he's going until closer to new years. 50 Days, 45 Days. The "good" news is the Red Sox need two - possibly three -- starters. So, while YY is most folk's top target, we'll get other news first. GM meetings start this week and there are sure to be tons of unsubstantiated rumors coming out of Scottsdale. That and news on qualifying offers. Next up will be the Winter Meetings which start 12/3.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Nov 6, 2023 13:09:32 GMT -5
I'm a long-time lurker ... Welcome & thank you for putting on electronic paper what previously you had only been thinking.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 7, 2023 0:15:37 GMT -5
If I were in Preller’s shoes, I would also want to dump the bad, long contracts that I gave out last year rather than the best player on the team, for whom I gave up one of the biggest prospect hauls in the history of the game. I have a feeling rival executives are not going to play along, though. “Ohtani actually really loves it in Anaheim and would be happy to stay” sounds like peak Bob nonsense. No reason why he couldn't stay there and just have his chauffeur drive him to a different ballpark...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 7, 2023 0:26:03 GMT -5
I'm a long-time lurker, but I haven't seen this logic laid out so I want to put it here. Realistically 2024 is a big step forward year, but likely not a world series favorite year. Luxury tax is reset, prospect war chest is full, and we have a decent MLB roster base to work from - at least on offense. 2025 seems like the 'we're back' year. So operating under that assumption, doesn't Ohtani make a ton more sense? By signing Ohtani in 2024 you get your thumper bat just for money and have an ace coming in 2025. After signing Ohtani, I think you take the prospect war chest and trade for an ace. You have Ohtani's bat this year, an ace this year, and then next offseason you're baking in another ace. Not to mention many of the positional prospects we have will be arriving around 2025 pending they are not involved in any trade for an ace. I know what Ohtani actually signs for is a huge variable risk-wise, but the idea of Ohtani makes a ton of sense (to me at least) when you broaden the horizon a little. Thoughts? I like the thinking but I just don't think signing Ohtani in particular is a sustainable play. I just don't see him staying as a 2-way player for more than 2-3 more years, esp. after his second TJ. So you wind up spending a 2-way price for a 1-way player, albeit a very good one. The wildcard here is how much of that contract you can offset with merchandise and promotions but every team will be banking on that too. Ultimately, I'll be pretty surprised if he doesn't wind up in Dodger blue.
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Post by asm19 on Nov 7, 2023 13:57:06 GMT -5
FWIW it's unclear from the article if this is sourced info from McCaffrey, or just speculation.
If they got him on a short-term deal I wouldn't hate it. His batted ball data is terrible, but he can make contact, steal bases, and play both 2B and OF. Considering the internal second base options aren't spectacular (I still love you Pablo!) and there's not many inspiring FA agent options there, getting Merrifield seems... fine.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Nov 7, 2023 14:50:47 GMT -5
FWIW it's unclear from the article if this is sourced info from McCaffrey, or just speculation. If they got him on a short-term deal I wouldn't hate it. His batted ball data is terrible, but he can make contact, steal bases, and play both 2B and OF. Considering the internal second base options aren't spectacular (I still love you Pablo!) and there's not many inspiring FA agent options there, getting Merrifield seems... fine. Id much rather have Urias considering their salaries. Merrifield is one of the most overrated players this past year. Well below average hitter, roughly average 2B defender, and he will be 35 next year. What is there to like other than him being a good baserunner?
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Post by incandenza on Nov 7, 2023 15:02:07 GMT -5
To reference a recent discussion: I am willing to give Breslow rope... unless he signs Merrifield, then I am out on him forever.
(By the way, it's possible to actually link to an article rather than post a tweet that just sort of alludes to it without a link and slows down the page load times, mumble grumble...)
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 7, 2023 15:31:00 GMT -5
Sure Merrifield is a RHH who can play 2nd and OF so from that angle he's an alright fit for the roster but to me he'd still be of a waste of money for an average-ish player who is aging.
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Post by dirtdog on Nov 7, 2023 17:23:58 GMT -5
Supposedly they have contacted Jordan Montgomery.
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Post by asm19 on Nov 7, 2023 19:41:03 GMT -5
Sure Merrifield is a RHH who can play 2nd and OF so from that angle he's an alright fit for the roster but to me he'd still be of a waste of money for an average-ish player who is aging. FWIW… We’re probably gonna give a starting pitcher (or two) something in the range of 100-200+ million dollars and hope their elbow doesn’t explode. Is Whit Merrifield making 9 million bucks (or whatever it is) for a year or two really gonna be the deal that kills the budget if it goes poorly?
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 7, 2023 19:56:11 GMT -5
Sure Merrifield is a RHH who can play 2nd and OF so from that angle he's an alright fit for the roster but to me he'd still be of a waste of money for an average-ish player who is aging. FWIW… We’re probably gonna give a starting pitcher (or two) something in the range of 100-200+ million dollars and hope their elbow doesn’t explode. Is Whit Merrifield making 9 million bucks (or whatever it is) for a year or two really gonna be the deal that kills the budget if it goes poorly? If it stops them from signing a guy like Adam Duvall then it could certainly hurt them. I just don't see Merrifield being an upgrade over urias at 2nd and duvall is a better fit in the OF. Merrifield just doesn't do anything for me.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 8, 2023 3:21:18 GMT -5
These projections for Merrifield feel high to me considering what Elvis Andrus and Jean Segura just got in free agency coming off better seasons.
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Nov 8, 2023 10:08:17 GMT -5
Dipoto made a comment yesterday that the Ms are looking for hitters that can make contact. Seems like they’d be a great partner in a Verdugo trade to open up a corner spot.
Breslow has also said recently that he hopes for the DH spot to be a rotating cast of players to give them time off in the field or to give role players on the bench matchup-specific opportunities. That would not bode well for Turner or those like me that want to see Yoshida at DH. It does allow for some creative roster building, and I would say it increases the likelihood that Duvall is back in some capacity. I do think we need a major upgrade in the lineup somewhere, and RF (or LF, depending on how things shake out) is pretty much the only opportunity to do so.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Nov 8, 2023 10:32:39 GMT -5
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Nov 8, 2023 10:56:46 GMT -5
Savant still had him at 4 OAA at 2B, he's not really an asset in the OF anymore. That being said you're absolutely right about the bat.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 8, 2023 11:00:30 GMT -5
Average isn't everything but you can't say the bat is flat out bad and have the same player hit .272. This isn't Joey Gallo levels. Would I sign him? Absolutely not. But he's not terrible he's more meh.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 8, 2023 11:15:26 GMT -5
Average isn't everything but you can't say the bat is flat out bad and have the same player hit .272. This isn't Joey Gallo levels. Would I sign him? Absolutely not. But he's not terrible he's more meh. BA is obviously only one part of the equation, .272 is solid but his wRC+ was 93 this year, he only slugged .382 and his OBP was .318. I suppose I wouldn't classify the bat as "flat out bad" so I'll agree there but it's not exactly good either. I agree with you I don't really want Merrifield since he's very much meh. I guess if somehow he was signed to a 1 year deal to be a RHH 2nd/OF bench piece but something tells me someone will sign him to a 2 year deal with the thought he starts more than not so once again I'll say I really hope that's the not with the Sox as even just if the deal is just in the ballpark of 9M a year for 1-2 years there are better ways they can spend that money.
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