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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Nov 2, 2023 9:47:46 GMT -5
Is there an example of a player who already signed a mega contract and then got traded for a huge haul?
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 2, 2023 9:51:22 GMT -5
The Padres say no to that pretty easily IMO. The trade simulator actually likes that for the Padres: they get a value score of 95.4 to the Red Sox' 83.9.
It helps that Cronenworth has pretty significant negative value.
I'm not sure what values the simulator is using here, maybe I'm wrong I guess. However I just don't see the Padres trading a 24 year old MVP type of player for in essence a bunch of spare parts from the Sox. Also I'm sorry but anyone sitting here licking their lips about a possible Padres firesale should probably take a step back. Is borrowing money last year a good look for the team and the MLB? No, but from what I read it's also not really all that uncommon so it's not as if the Padres are on the brink of bankruptcy here. If I had to guess they'll deal Soto and his $30M in savings or so would probably bring them enough relief that they won't be looking to deal Tatis.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 2, 2023 9:52:21 GMT -5
Is there an example of a player who already signed a mega contract and then got traded for a huge haul? Not many 24 year old superstars have been signed to mega contracts.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 2, 2023 9:52:51 GMT -5
The Padres say no to that pretty easily IMO. The trade simulator actually likes that for the Padres: they get a value score of 95.4 to the Red Sox' 83.9.
It helps that Cronenworth has pretty significant negative value.
It’s a solid trade in a vacuum, but Tatis is the one player they kind of have to keep given how reasonable his contract is, right? The Machado/X/Darvish contracts do not look good right now.
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 2, 2023 9:55:35 GMT -5
The Padres say no to that pretty easily IMO. The trade simulator actually likes that for the Padres: they get a value score of 95.4 to the Red Sox' 83.9.
It helps that Cronenworth has pretty significant negative value.
I don’t think it’s awful they get long term savings, a lot of it. I also don’t think they want a complete rebuild I think pieces like duran and houck are just as attractive to them As Bleis and Yorke. Yoshida has 4 years left and isn’t some albatross Pretty sure them freeing themselves of around 250 to 280 million in salary relief at the conclusion of Yoshidas contract would be attractive to them They also get a pretty damn good package, and gives them flexibility to move soto for a SP or a nice prospect package It’s a pipe dream in general but I don’t think completely out of the realm of possibility
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 2, 2023 9:55:59 GMT -5
The trade simulator actually likes that for the Padres: they get a value score of 95.4 to the Red Sox' 83.9.
It helps that Cronenworth has pretty significant negative value.
It’s a solid trade in a vacuum, but Tatis is the one player they kind of have to keep given how reasonable his contract is, right? The Machado/X/Darvish contracts do not look good right now. And Preller gave all 3 of those guys full no-trade clauses
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Post by incandenza on Nov 2, 2023 9:56:27 GMT -5
Is there an example of a player who already signed a mega contract and then got traded for a huge haul? Tatis signed an early extension so it actually has a lot of projected surplus value - it's only a $21 million AAV and covers his age 25-35 seasons. So it's not like a free agent megacontract where it starts to shed value right away.
By the same token, imagine the return the Mariners could get for Julio Rodriguez if they decided to trade him.
But that's the Padres' dilemma: Tatis is the one guy out of him/Bogaerts/Machado they'd probably do well to keep, but he's also the only one of the three they could move without eating a ton of dead money.
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 2, 2023 9:59:43 GMT -5
Is there an example of a player who already signed a mega contract and then got traded for a huge haul? Tatis signed an early extension so it actually has a lot of projected surplus value - it's only a $21 million AAV and covers his age 25-35 seasons. So it's not like a free agent megacontract where it starts to shed value right away.
By the same token, imagine the return the Mariners could get for Julio Rodriguez if they decided to trade him.
But that's the Padres' dilemma: Tatis is the one guy out of him/Bogaerts/Machado they'd probably do well to keep, but he's also the only one of the three they could move without eating a ton of dead money.
Yeah this is how I am seeing it. Tatis actually offers them a chance to get rid of a guy like Cronenworth as well without eating dead money Maybe my original proposal with Yoshida doesn’t do it, but maybe sending $4 million per year for his last 4 years does it. They rather have him at the 4 years than Cronenworth for what… 7 years?
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Post by incandenza on Nov 2, 2023 10:00:10 GMT -5
The trade simulator actually likes that for the Padres: they get a value score of 95.4 to the Red Sox' 83.9.
It helps that Cronenworth has pretty significant negative value.
I'm not sure what values the simulator is using here, maybe I'm wrong I guess. However I just don't see the Padres trading a 24 year old MVP type of player for in essence a bunch of spare parts from the Sox. Also I'm sorry but anyone sitting here licking their lips about a possible Padres firesale should probably take a step back. Is borrowing money last year a good look for the team and the MLB? No, but from what I read it's also not really all that uncommon so it's not as if the Padres are on the brink of bankruptcy here. If I had to guess they'll deal Soto and his $30M in savings or so would probably bring them enough relief that they won't be looking to deal Tatis. I'm not saying the trade simulator is faultless, but I'd hardly call Bleis, Yorke, Houck, and Duran "a bunch of spare parts." If the news came in that the Red Sox had packaged those guys in a deal but you didn't know yet what the return was, wouldn't you expect it to be something pretty good?
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 2, 2023 10:15:04 GMT -5
I'm not sure what values the simulator is using here, maybe I'm wrong I guess. However I just don't see the Padres trading a 24 year old MVP type of player for in essence a bunch of spare parts from the Sox. Also I'm sorry but anyone sitting here licking their lips about a possible Padres firesale should probably take a step back. Is borrowing money last year a good look for the team and the MLB? No, but from what I read it's also not really all that uncommon so it's not as if the Padres are on the brink of bankruptcy here. If I had to guess they'll deal Soto and his $30M in savings or so would probably bring them enough relief that they won't be looking to deal Tatis. I'm not saying the trade simulator is faultless, but I'd hardly call Bleis, Yorke, Houck, and Duran "a bunch of spare parts." If the news came in that the Red Sox had packaged those guys in a deal but you didn't know yet what the return was, wouldn't you expect it to be something pretty good? Spare parts is probably harsh on my end, Duran and Houck have shown they have the talent to be capable MLB players with solid upside. Yorke and Bleis, have value as well but Bleis is so far away I don't know what to make of his value and Yorke I like the prospect but not sure he's moving the needle. As you ask, yes if theoretically there was a package of those four traded I would expect it to be a solid player(s) but no I don't think a 24 superstar would be the player brought back. In terms of real life dollars not LT dollars, moving Tatis's contract doesn't really help them at all in the short term. He doesn't get expensive until 2029 when he starts making $36M.
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Post by 0ap0 on Nov 2, 2023 11:29:17 GMT -5
The point isn't to move Tatis' contract, it's to move Cronenworth's, no? Tatis is the price they pay to do that.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 2, 2023 11:37:49 GMT -5
I think there may be some political limits on Preller's ability to move albatross contracts he gave out less than one year ago, making the extent of his screw up perfectly clear, while he is on the hot seat
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Post by Smittyw on Nov 2, 2023 11:41:15 GMT -5
I think you have to question whether underwater contracts carry as much negative value in real-world trade negotiations as they do on that simulator. I'm still waiting for all the prospects we were supposed to get for taking Wil Myers and/or Eric Hosmer from the Padres.
To put it a different way, would you trade Casas and Anthony to get out from under Trevor Story's contract?
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 2, 2023 11:47:09 GMT -5
The point isn't to move Tatis' contract, it's to move Cronenworth's, no? Tatis is the price they pay to do that. The problem with Cronenworth's contract is the length of it not really the amount of it. If they are having a short term money crunch I don't really see it worth their while to attach a superstar in Tatis in order to move more long term issue than short term in Cronenworth. Cronenworth makes like 11M a year. To me if they need to move big money ASAP the two guys on that roster to do it with are Soto since I highly doubt they have any ability to sign him with their already large long term commitments and Joe Musgrove who makes $20M a year for the next few years. If they are able to move both of them there's give or take $50M off their payroll for 2024 depending on what they bring back in the trades. Musgrove is a guy I'd probably have some interest in the Sox getting. He did end his 2023 on the IL due to shoulder injury though so not sure how bad that injury is. Juan Soto is Juan Soto so yea if they have the ability to get him I'm all for it, roster fit be damned you can figure that out later.
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Post by 0ap0 on Nov 2, 2023 11:52:42 GMT -5
The short-term money crunch has already been taken care of with a loan. What they need is to get out from under onerous contracts; either those too high or those too long.
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Post by 0ap0 on Nov 2, 2023 11:56:21 GMT -5
I think you have to question whether underwater contracts carry as much negative value in real-world trade negotiations as they do on that simulator. I'm still waiting for all the prospects we were supposed to get for taking Wil Myers and/or Eric Hosmer from the Padres. To put it a different way, would you trade Casas and Anthony to get out from under Trevor Story's contract? Story's contract isn't an albatross. I know I'd give up Adrian Gonzalez to be relieved of Crawford and Beckett.
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 2, 2023 12:00:40 GMT -5
The point isn't to move Tatis' contract, it's to move Cronenworth's, no? Tatis is the price they pay to do that. The problem with Cronenworth's contract is the length of it not really the amount of it. If they are having a short term money crunch I don't really see it worth their while to attach a superstar in Tatis in order to move more long term issue than short term in Cronenworth. Cronenworth makes like 11M a year. To me if they need to move big money ASAP the two guys on that roster to do it with are Soto since I highly doubt they have any ability to sign him with their already large long term commitments and Joe Musgrove who makes $20M a year for the next few years. If they are able to move both of them there's give or take $50M off their payroll for 2024 depending on what they bring back in the trades. Musgrove is a guy I'd probably have some interest in the Sox getting. He did end his 2023 on the IL due to shoulder injury though so not sure how bad that injury is. I agree in a vacuum but you are also talking about a team that really needs long term relief Feel like they or anyone would prefer creating long term flexibility rather than short term. The said offer was basically cutting $200 (maybe more) million in obligations for the padres after the 2027 season and beyond. While picking up a young cheap 3-5 starter. A young a cheap borderline starting OF. A borderline top 100 prospect who is getting close and a potential blue chip, top 100, lottery ticket prospect. I’d say the Padres would be making out fairly well in that one. Not that they would do it, but it would address the future, the now, and the long term financial flexibility They could trade Soto for a prospect haul and sign someone like gray for 3 years. Darvish Musgrove Gray Houck Is a good rotation. There is a lot of logic in them doing all of this because right now they are looking at a weak rotation with no money to address it at this point in time
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 2, 2023 12:04:33 GMT -5
To add here, he would be a dream get to allude to what Merloni said
2025 you could be looking at
2-5 of
Devers Tatis Casas Mayer
My useless gut feeling for a while now is we will do something with the Padres
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 2, 2023 12:09:57 GMT -5
The problem with Cronenworth's contract is the length of it not really the amount of it. If they are having a short term money crunch I don't really see it worth their while to attach a superstar in Tatis in order to move more long term issue than short term in Cronenworth. Cronenworth makes like 11M a year. To me if they need to move big money ASAP the two guys on that roster to do it with are Soto since I highly doubt they have any ability to sign him with their already large long term commitments and Joe Musgrove who makes $20M a year for the next few years. If they are able to move both of them there's give or take $50M off their payroll for 2024 depending on what they bring back in the trades. Musgrove is a guy I'd probably have some interest in the Sox getting. He did end his 2023 on the IL due to shoulder injury though so not sure how bad that injury is. I agree in a vacuum but you are also talking about a team that really needs long term relief Feel like they or anyone would prefer creating long term flexibility rather than short term. The said offer was basically cutting $200 (maybe more) million in obligations for the padres after the 2027 season and beyond. While picking up a young cheap 3-5 starter. A young a cheap borderline starting OF. A borderline top 100 prospect who is getting close and a potential blue chip, top 100, lottery ticket prospect. I’d say the Padres would be making out fairly well in that one. Not that they would do it, but it would address the future, the now, and the long term financial flexibility They could trade Soto for a prospect haul and sign someone like gray for 3 years. Darvish Musgrove Gray Houck Is a good rotation. There is a lot of logic in them doing all of this because right now they are looking at a weak rotation with no money to address it at this point in time Maybe, but maybe not. This is a message board and it is interesting to discuss especially before the deals start flying by since what else is there to discuss now that the WS is over and the Padres loan was the big news of the day. The more I read into about the loan the less of a big deal I think it is, from what I've seen it's not uncommon for a team to do something like this it just doesn't get reported all that much. To me I don't find it likely they trade a guy like Tatis but perhaps I am way off. It is true they probably should pare some of the long term commitments from their roster not necessarily just due to this news but because Preller gave at out long term deals like they were candy on Halloween when honestly he had no need to. So I suppose I could see a scenario where Tatis is dealt but I don't think they'd attach Croenenworth to the deal since he has negative value. They'd undoubtedly get a better package if it was just Tatis. It is also true that unless they significantly paid down Xander or Machado's deal they probably aren't finding a deal for either of them so I guess once again that would lead us back to Tatis if it is imperative for the long term prognosis of the org to move long term commitments. We'll see soon enough now that the WS is over and hopefully that stove starts heating up in the coming days/weeks.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 2, 2023 12:19:28 GMT -5
I don’t think the Cronenworth contract is one they’re itching to dump. If they realign the infield to be Machado/Kim/Cronenworth/Xander next year like some have speculated, his value probably shoots back up. He had a bad year last year but he’s still had 4+ WAR two of the past three years. It’s probably a little longer than it should be, but 11m/yr for a solid second baseman is pretty reasonable to me.
Soto makes the most sense to trade right now since he will bring back badly needed prospect capital and it seems like there is a roughly zero percent chance he re-signs. The salary for this year, like some have said, is probably a secondary consideration there. I’m not enamored with Musgrove given the injury issues but I think he makes the most sense as a contract to dump—it’s a big-not-huge contract, and he’s been a solid number 2 when healthy, so there’s pretty good upside if he can come back healthy from the shoulder injury, so finding a taker shouldn’t be too hard.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 2, 2023 12:25:24 GMT -5
I don’t think the Cronenworth contract is one they’re itching to dump. If they realign the infield to be Machado/Kim/Cronenworth/Xander next year like some have speculated, his value probably shoots back up. He had a bad year last year but he’s still had 4+ WAR two of the past three years. It’s probably a little longer than it should be, but 11m/yr for a solid second baseman is pretty reasonable to me. Soto makes the most sense to trade right now since he will bring back badly needed prospect capital and it seems like there is a roughly zero percent chance he re-signs. The salary for this year, like some have said, is probably a secondary consideration there. I’m not enamored with Musgrove given the injury issues but I think he makes the most sense as a contract to dump—it’s a big-not-huge contract, and he’s been a solid number 2 when healthy, so there’s pretty good upside if he can come back healthy from the shoulder injury, so finding a taker shouldn’t be too hard. Musgrove if his medicals check out would be a guy I'd love to see the Sox target. 4 years 80M left on the deal is a dang good value for a pitcher of his ability. He does have a NTC though so would he waive it would be a question. He is from CA so he may not want to waive it to go to the east coast.
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Post by Smittyw on Nov 2, 2023 12:48:57 GMT -5
I think you have to question whether underwater contracts carry as much negative value in real-world trade negotiations as they do on that simulator. I'm still waiting for all the prospects we were supposed to get for taking Wil Myers and/or Eric Hosmer from the Padres. To put it a different way, would you trade Casas and Anthony to get out from under Trevor Story's contract? Story's contract isn't an albatross. I know I'd give up Adrian Gonzalez to be relieved of Crawford and Beckett. I don't think of it as one, either. I chose that example because it's 1) clearly unhinged from anything with a chance of happening in reality, and 2) basically equal value from the Red Sox's side according to the Baseball Trade Values site. Just food for thought.
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Post by asm19 on Nov 2, 2023 23:05:32 GMT -5
In terms of real life dollars not LT dollars, moving Tatis's contract doesn't really help them at all in the short term. He doesn't get expensive until 2029 when he starts making $36M. If it were almost any other team this feels like it would be an incredibly relevant point - but the Padres legitimately might not be rational actors? Additionally, it’s not like Tatis’ off the field stuff and clubhouse vibes have exactly made the Padres even more pumped to have him over the next decade since they gave him that deal.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 3, 2023 7:09:59 GMT -5
give us our new manny, Fernando Tatis Jr
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 3, 2023 7:28:37 GMT -5
give us our new manny, Fernando Tatis Jr He certainly would check two boxes the new POBO specifically pointed to as a need for the team, RHH and really good defensively in RF.
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