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Post by greenmonster on Apr 1, 2024 14:30:25 GMT -5
A year ago we were hearing how great the "Opener" was going to work out.... "Tampa has had great success with it....yadayadayada"
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 1, 2024 14:35:29 GMT -5
Uwasawa to me feels like a "break glass in case of emergency" type guy. He's likely 7th in the pecking order right now, I could see him having a solid few start stretch when he comes up since he's new to the league but he sounds to me like a guy who once the book is out may get T'ed up on. He's intriguing because the Rays obviously saw something in him and didn't want to get rid of him their hand was forced by the contract he signed. Results so far don't look anything other than awful but Tampa thought there was something there and so do Breslow and Bailey. Time will tell but the Rays traded him to the Sox for cash considerations, that leads me to believe they didn't think that highly of him after they got their hands on him. Feels like if they thought he'd be useful they would have found a way to keep in the Org but maybe he'll be a nice surprise. Either way the Sox have little to lose by snagging him since they're able to carry him on their 40 and keep him in Worcester until they need a spot starter.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 1, 2024 14:50:40 GMT -5
He's intriguing because the Rays obviously saw something in him and didn't want to get rid of him their hand was forced by the contract he signed. Results so far don't look anything other than awful but Tampa thought there was something there and so do Breslow and Bailey. Time will tell but the Rays traded him to the Sox for cash considerations, that leads me to believe they didn't think that highly of him after they got their hands on him. Feels like if they thought he'd be useful they would have found a way to keep in the Org but maybe he'll be a nice surprise. Either way the Sox have little to lose by snagging him since they're able to carry him on their 40 and keep him in Worcester until they need a spot starter. He's on a one-year deal worth $2.5 million pro-rated for the time he's in the majors and $225k for the time he's in the minors, plus another $1 million in major league IP incentives. If the Rays have other depth starter options with more control making the minimum, and especially ones already on the 40-man that they'd prefer not to lose, that would be a fair reason to drop Uwasawa, even if he's still interesting as a depth starter. Of course they could also just think he's washed, but given the interest multiple teams have had in him I wouldn't jump to that conclusion.
I get he didn't look great in spring training, but it's spring training, and a very small sample at that. He's not realistically going to maintain a .375 BABIP, 30% HR/FB%, and 7.5 BB/9 in a larger sample; his BB/9 over 9 NPB seasons was 2.9.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 1, 2024 18:45:23 GMT -5
I am glad to see that even with a new cast in the FO, you continue to work from the assumption that they know something no other person or organization does. I call it the “Eric Van/Zach Godley Hypothesis.” I hope you are right, but I’d say, for example, a 30-year old who has never pitched in America and was dumped by the Rays hardly counts as reliable depth. Maybe he is the next Koji-level discovery… but I am nervous to test that. The Red Sox are always smarter than everybody else because they are Eric's favorite team, which sounds like a scientifically valid basis for his assumption, lol Let's hope one day we really can assume that. "Malancon had the biggest [batting order position] splits I've ever seen! He got creamed by No. 3 and 4 hitters! This was the guy they were going to take and put oin the AL East? A sabermetrically astute organization would never have made those trades."
Peter Keating chose that rant of mine as the next-to-last the bit in his story about me in in the 15th anniversary issue (May 13, 2013) of ESPN The Magazine. The last bit was my question "How many times have they won a playoff game since they laid us off?" [The Sox laid off all of their consultants after 2008, against the wishes of baseball ops. I at least got 6 months severance pay.]
I've spent most of my life as a Sox fan ranting against stupidities of various ilks.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Apr 1, 2024 19:07:20 GMT -5
The Red Sox are always smarter than everybody else because they are Eric's favorite team, which sounds like a scientifically valid basis for his assumption, lol Let's hope one day we really can assume that. "Malancon had the biggest [batting order position] splits I've ever seen! He got creamed by No. 3 and 4 hitters! This was the guy they were going to take and put oin the AL East? A sabermetrically astute organization would never have made those trades."
Peter Keating chose that rant of mine as the next-to-last the bit in his story about me in in the 15th anniversary issue (May 13, 2013) of ESPN The Magazine. The last bit was my question "How many times have they won a playoff game since they laid us off?" [The Sox laid off all of their consultants after 2008, against the wishes of baseball ops. I at least got 6 months severance pay.]
I've spent most of my life as a Sox fan ranting against stupidities of various ilks.
I mean… if you gotta go back 12 years for your example…. And MElancon did go on to be a dominant pitcher for many teams in a number of divisions. Is it possible he just sucked in Boston? He was an All Star at 36 in an NL West which featured a shootout between a 106-win and 107-win team.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 1, 2024 19:51:00 GMT -5
Not remotely true.
They had all sorts of chances to add a starter from the usual sources when Giolito went down and they chose not to, because they had done something with Cooper Criswell (as planned, no doubt) that makes him a solid sixth starter. They then added Naoyuki Uwasawa whose last three years with the Nippon Ham Fighters had ERA's of 2.81, 3.38, 2.96 in 24, 25, 24 starts -- and it's almost certain that they see something in him that can make him better, because that's how they roll. And they have Richard Fitts whom they are high on (like everyone they have acquired) and is thought to be a couple of months from being MLB ready.
They may be gambling a bit that they don't have to put two guys on the IL before Uwasawa or Fitts fits is ready, but we don't know what the former's time table is.
Hint: one thing that ain't gonna work this year is "the front office made a mistake that I have spotted."
(Case in point: I thought that ownership had vetoed re-signing Duvall, but it's now clear that a) the F.O. had a strong reason to believe that Rafaela would come to ST with hugely better swing decisions, and b) given how late Duvall signed with the Braves, they had him waiting in case they were wrong.) I am glad to see that even with a new cast in the FO, you continue to work from the assumption that they know something no other person or organization does. I call it the “Eric Van/Zach Godley Hypothesis.” I hope you are right, but I’d say, for example, a 30-year old who has never pitched in America and was dumped by the Rays hardly counts as reliable depth. Maybe he is the next Koji-level discovery… but I am nervous to test that. Dumped by the Rays like ... Cooper Criswell?
Did you get that I implied that Uwasawa would be either the #7 or #8 starter? How high is that bar?
Track record of so far with non-established pitchers:
Traded Luis Urías to the Seattle Mariners. Received Isaiah Campbell. Traded Alex Verdugo to the New York Yankees. Received Richard Fitts (minors), Nicholas Judice (minors) and Greg Weissert. Traded Ryan Ammons (minors) to the New York Mets. Received Justin Slaten (minors). Signed Cooper Criswell as a free agent.
they know something no other person or organization does
No, no. The best organizations have figured out ways to make certain types of pitchers better. They have methodologies. It's not a mystic, guy-by-guy thing; it's "this guy fits the profile of guys who would benefit a lot from [X]."
And these teams soon become teams that don't need to add much pitching. So there are likely a few teams saying, damn, that closes the gap some, but we are full up with guys that are as good or better.
A final note ... one thing I have learned of late is that pessimists have no idea how they sound to other, else they would STF up. It's tiresome.
I mean, seriously ... I spend all winter arguing that the alleged bad rotation will be great, and so far it's playing just out as I thought ... and you feel compelled to go after any optimism over the #7 or 8 starter?
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Apr 1, 2024 20:10:39 GMT -5
I am glad to see that even with a new cast in the FO, you continue to work from the assumption that they know something no other person or organization does. I call it the “Eric Van/Zach Godley Hypothesis.” I hope you are right, but I’d say, for example, a 30-year old who has never pitched in America and was dumped by the Rays hardly counts as reliable depth. Maybe he is the next Koji-level discovery… but I am nervous to test that. Dumped by the Rays like ... Cooper Criswell?
Did you get that I implied that Uwasawa would be either the #7 or #8 starter? How high is that bar?
Track record of so far with non-established pitchers:
Traded Luis Urías to the Seattle Mariners. Received Isaiah Campbell. Traded Alex Verdugo to the New York Yankees. Received Richard Fitts (minors), Nicholas Judice (minors) and Greg Weissert. Traded Ryan Ammons (minors) to the New York Mets. Received Justin Slaten (minors). Signed Cooper Criswell as a free agent.
they know something no other person or organization does
No, no. The best organizations have figured out ways to make certain types of pitchers better. They have methodologies. It's not a mystic, guy-by-guy thing; it's "this guy fits the profile of guys who would benefit a lot from [X]."
And these teams soon become teams that don't need to add much pitching. So there are likely a few teams saying, damn, that closes the gap some, but we are full up with guys that are as good or better.
A final note ... one thing I have learned of late is that pessimists have no idea how they sound to other, else they would STF up. It's tiresome.
I mean, seriously ... I spend all winter arguing that the alleged bad rotation will be great, and so far it's playing just out as I thought ... and you feel compelled to go after any optimism over the #7 or 8 starter?
I wasn’t being a pessimist. I said the rotation is extremely talented. But, yes, if guys get hurt and they go to 6, 7, or god forbid 8… big time pessimist.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 1, 2024 20:15:38 GMT -5
I am glad to see that even with a new cast in the FO, you continue to work from the assumption that they know something no other person or organization does. I call it the “Eric Van/Zach Godley Hypothesis.” I hope you are right, but I’d say, for example, a 30-year old who has never pitched in America and was dumped by the Rays hardly counts as reliable depth. Maybe he is the next Koji-level discovery… but I am nervous to test that. Dumped by the Rays like ... Cooper Criswell?
Did you get that I implied that Uwasawa would be either the #7 or #8 starter? How high is that bar?
Track record of so far with non-established pitchers:
Traded Luis Urías to the Seattle Mariners. Received Isaiah Campbell. Traded Alex Verdugo to the New York Yankees. Received Richard Fitts (minors), Nicholas Judice (minors) and Greg Weissert. Traded Ryan Ammons (minors) to the New York Mets. Received Justin Slaten (minors). Signed Cooper Criswell as a free agent.
they know something no other person or organization does
No, no. The best organizations have figured out ways to make certain types of pitchers better. They have methodologies. It's not a mystic, guy-by-guy thing; it's "this guy fits the profile of guys who would benefit a lot from [X]."
And these teams soon become teams that don't need to add much pitching. So there are likely a few teams saying, damn, that closes the gap some, but we are full up with guys that are as good or better.
A final note ... one thing I have learned of late is that pessimists have no idea how they sound to other, else they would STF up. It's tiresome.
I mean, seriously ... I spend all winter arguing that the alleged bad rotation will be great, and so far it's playing just out as I thought ... and you feel compelled to go after any optimism over the #7 or 8 starter?
Dude, my goodness. You occasionally post some interesting information but you have become entirely insufferable. You are not nearly as smart as you think you are and it’s extremely ironic that you’re talking about others having no idea how they sound to others. Get off your high horse and attempt to let your data do the talking as opposed to instantly jumping to condescension the second someone dares to disagree with you. And for the record, you are *way* too deluded by optimism if you actually believe they are seeing things that no one else is seeing. The early returns have been good for sure but we can acknowledge that without deifying them.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 1, 2024 20:32:05 GMT -5
"Malancon had the biggest [batting order position] splits I've ever seen! He got creamed by No. 3 and 4 hitters! This was the guy they were going to take and put oin the AL East? A sabermetrically astute organization would never have made those trades."
Peter Keating chose that rant of mine as the next-to-last the bit in his story about me in in the 15th anniversary issue (May 13, 2013) of ESPN The Magazine. The last bit was my question "How many times have they won a playoff game since they laid us off?" [The Sox laid off all of their consultants after 2008, against the wishes of baseball ops. I at least got 6 months severance pay.]
I've spent most of my life as a Sox fan ranting against stupidities of various ilks.
I mean… if you gotta go back 12 years for your example…. And MElancon did go on to be a dominant pitcher for many teams in a number of divisions. Is it possible he just sucked in Boston? He was an All Star at 36 in an NL West which featured a shootout between a 106-win and 107-win team. I hated the first Sale trade. Is that better?
Melancon was already a top reliever when they traded for him -- 2.78 ERA, 20 saves for an Astro team that went 56-106. I checked out a favorite metric of mine and it said it was a really bad choice. I was right. A sportswriter later selected that as an example of what good analysis could do for a team. End of story.
Oh, and recently someone involved admitted that they had really gotten away from analytics in that era, to their detriment. That made me feel better -- I did not choose that criticism as the literal end of the story!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 1, 2024 20:39:57 GMT -5
"Malancon had the biggest [batting order position] splits I've ever seen! He got creamed by No. 3 and 4 hitters! This was the guy they were going to take and put oin the AL East? A sabermetrically astute organization would never have made those trades." Peter Keating chose that rant of mine as the next-to-last the bit in his story about me in in the 15th anniversary issue (May 13, 2013) of ESPN The Magazine. The last bit was my question "How many times have they won a playoff game since they laid us off?" [The Sox laid off all of their consultants after 2008, against the wishes of baseball ops. I at least got 6 months severance pay.] I've spent most of my life as a Sox fan ranting against stupidities of various ilks.
I mean… if you gotta go back 12 years for your example…. And MElancon did go on to be a dominant pitcher for many teams in a number of divisions. Is it possible he just sucked in Boston? He was an All Star at 36 in an NL West which featured a shootout between a 106-win and 107-win team. Melancon got off to a rotten start in 2012 and within the first week Bobby Valentine buried him and it made for a miserable year for him. I think with a different manager he would have turned it around, but that's just an opinion which I'm basing upon him pitching well for Houston prior to the Lowrie trade and afterwards where he blossomed with the Pirates and pitches well thereafter. In a sense the Sox didn't "win" the trade where they sent Melancon to Pittsburgh for Hanrahan and Brock but it worked out anyways. Hanrahan got hurt. If Melancon was there he might have seized the closers role and did a good job with it, but instead with him in Pittsburgh, Hanrahan got hurt and we all got to enjoy the wonder that was Koji, and maybe with a very good closer the Sox don't win the Series but with a near perfect closer they do, which Koji was in 2013. And Brock Holt did prove to be very handy to have around for the six or seven seasons he played with the Sox. So the trade certainly worked out, but I think Melancon's issues in Boston were more with Valentine then his overall ability to get batters out. And that's as far as I'll go with that as I realize it doesn't have much to do with the current rotation. So I'll just say it's encouraging what we've seen thus far, but it's four games. I'll take it a lot more seriously if they are effective into August. I think of Whitlock, Crawford, and Houck, I like Whitlock's abilities to start the most and like his durability to start the least. I want to see how he holds up. I think he can be efficient with K/BB ratios and maximize his 85 pitches or whatever to get about 6 innings per start. And if the Sox are to make hay, it'll be with Pivetta and Bello leading the way (didn't mean to make that rhyme). But I've seen Pivetta pitch like an all-star for a half and totally lose it afterwards, so I will want to see if he can be consistent all year. If he is, then I do hope the Sox can extend him for 3 or 4 years, but they'll have to pay. I think he'll get more on the open market if he's reasonable, unlike Snell and Montgomery. I read that both Cotillo and McAdam have heard that Corbin Burnes will be a target for the Sox this upcoming offseeason, so I guess there will be a new white whale to chase this offseason, lol. I mean, long-term, the Sox, if they ever do spend in free agency, only have two real long-term needs. 1) front line starting pitcher or two and 2) right hand middle of the order bat. So maybe the Sox will go after Burnes and perhaps find a way to keep Pivetta. Maybe O'Neill can be a keeper beyond this season if there isn't a more compelling right handed bat on the market. And at some point somebody like Duran or even Abreu and possibly even Valdez could be dangled for more starting pitching down the road as well. I guess 2024 is the bridge to a long-term rotation come 2025 as I would think/hope the Sox would go after an ace to go with Bello, Crawford, Whitlock, and Houck, and maybe even Pivetta, especially with Jansen and Martin's salaries coming off the books as well.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Apr 1, 2024 20:42:43 GMT -5
I mean… if you gotta go back 12 years for your example…. And MElancon did go on to be a dominant pitcher for many teams in a number of divisions. Is it possible he just sucked in Boston? He was an All Star at 36 in an NL West which featured a shootout between a 106-win and 107-win team. I hated the first Sale trade. Is that better?
Melancon was already a top reliever when they traded for him -- 2.78 ERA, 20 saves for an Astro team that went 56-106. I checked out a favorite metric of mine and it said it was a really bad choice. I was right. A sportswriter later selected that as an example of what good analysis could do for a team. End of story.
Oh, and recently someone involved admitted that they had really gotten away from analytics in that era, to their detriment. That made me feel better -- I did not choose that criticism as the literal end of the story!
Hated the Sale trade? Interesting and debatable. So I admire the position, but it hardly proves objective superiority. Sale’s first three seasons accumulated almost as much bWAR as Kopech and Moncada. He helped win a title. The pair of ChiSox don’t look like they will ever be more than what they’ve been.
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Post by strike23 on Apr 1, 2024 21:15:09 GMT -5
Dumped by the Rays like ... Cooper Criswell?
Did you get that I implied that Uwasawa would be either the #7 or #8 starter? How high is that bar?
Track record of so far with non-established pitchers:
Traded Luis Urías to the Seattle Mariners. Received Isaiah Campbell. Traded Alex Verdugo to the New York Yankees. Received Richard Fitts (minors), Nicholas Judice (minors) and Greg Weissert. Traded Ryan Ammons (minors) to the New York Mets. Received Justin Slaten (minors). Signed Cooper Criswell as a free agent.
they know something no other person or organization does
No, no. The best organizations have figured out ways to make certain types of pitchers better. They have methodologies. It's not a mystic, guy-by-guy thing; it's "this guy fits the profile of guys who would benefit a lot from [X]."
And these teams soon become teams that don't need to add much pitching. So there are likely a few teams saying, damn, that closes the gap some, but we are full up with guys that are as good or better.
A final note ... one thing I have learned of late is that pessimists have no idea how they sound to other, else they would STF up. It's tiresome.
I mean, seriously ... I spend all winter arguing that the alleged bad rotation will be great, and so far it's playing just out as I thought ... and you feel compelled to go after any optimism over the #7 or 8 starter?
I wasn’t being a pessimist. I said the rotation is extremely talented. But, yes, if guys get hurt and they go to 6, 7, or god forbid 8… big time pessimist. We're already on 6 with giolito down, I don't think criswell/anderson/fitts/walter/gambrell* in the 5 spot is that disastrous, 5th starters generally aren't good. I'm not sure any team has a rotation that looks good with 6, 7, and 8 options all in the rotation and having our 4th guy (whitlock) *I like Gambrell more than he deserves because he started in the first Portland game I ever made it to last year and looked good.
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Post by itinerantherb on Apr 2, 2024 10:47:34 GMT -5
Really interesting article in The Athletic on Bailey's approach to pitch mix. There seems to be a lot of buy-in from the staff. A few blurbs: “Every pitch we make in a game is a bet,” Bailey said over the weekend. “You’re trying to drive a positive outcome. Off-speed pitches generally reduce damage and generate more swing and miss. So every pitch we throw is a business decision. Every pitch we throw is a bet that we’re betting on decreasing damage and reducing contact. So most times, you want to leverage your best off-speed weapons, understanding that you know there is room to use your fastballs when needed.” These are all things that were studied and implemented in previous years, but pitchers this season — at least in the early going of spring training and at the start of the regular season — seem to have a greater understanding and ownership of their plans. Throughout the spring, several pitchers complimented the structure of Bailey’s Run Prevention Unit with the amount of information given to them. It was a digestible plan and easy to follow. Most importantly it allows them to remember the info once they’re in game action where the pitch clock is counting down and there might be pressure from runners on base. “It gives you a little bit more of a concrete plan,” Pivetta said this spring. “(Bailey) gives you the right amount of information and it’s very structured about how they give it to you so that you’re not getting bogged down by everything because that can get overwhelming as a player.” “I think the history of baseball suggests that when you’re in disadvantaged counts, your best strike pitch is a fastball from an ability standpoint and I don’t think that’s true,” [Bailey] added. “I think pitchers are able to leverage off-speed weapons, if not similarly or slightly above, with some certain pitch types and depending on feel and all that, that can be a learned skill. So as long as strike-throwing is in line and our process stats are in line, our ability to leverage our best pitches in and around the zone is vital to the success of our pitching staff.” theathletic.com/5384077/2024/04/02/red-sox-fastball-off-speed-pitch-usage/
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 2, 2024 11:31:40 GMT -5
Well, these two dovetail nicely... It took a bit of imagination and analytical inclination to see the road to this staff being a success. Pete Abraham does not fit that bill, so offering up the thoughts of your typical casual fan here is what I would expect from him. Pete Abe having the curiosity level of a kiwi is unsurprising - but the fact that Andrew Bailey was saying for months "we should be in the upper echelon of pitching staffs in baseball", and not a single beat writer seemed to ask the basic follow up question of, "Hey Andrew, why do you think that?" is insane.Again, it's still very early - but Bailey was adamantly optimistic about the rotation all spring, and it seems the folks covering team chucked that up to bravado or him putting on a brave face instead of actually looking into it. That post really got me thinking about what's been lost. Here's the relevant information that insanity cost them... Really interesting article in The Athletic on Bailey's approach to pitch mix. There seems to be a lot of buy-in from the staff. A few blurbs: “Every pitch we make in a game is a bet,” Bailey said over the weekend. “You’re trying to drive a positive outcome. Off-speed pitches generally reduce damage and generate more swing and miss. So every pitch we throw is a business decision. Every pitch we throw is a bet that we’re betting on decreasing damage and reducing contact. So most times, you want to leverage your best off-speed weapons, understanding that you know there is room to use your fastballs when needed.” These are all things that were studied and implemented in previous years, but pitchers this season — at least in the early going of spring training and at the start of the regular season — seem to have a greater understanding and ownership of their plans. Throughout the spring, several pitchers complimented the structure of Bailey’s Run Prevention Unit with the amount of information given to them. It was a digestible plan and easy to follow. Most importantly it allows them to remember the info once they’re in game action where the pitch clock is counting down and there might be pressure from runners on base. “It gives you a little bit more of a concrete plan,” Pivetta said this spring. “(Bailey) gives you the right amount of information and it’s very structured about how they give it to you so that you’re not getting bogged down by everything because that can get overwhelming as a player.” “I think the history of baseball suggests that when you’re in disadvantaged counts, your best strike pitch is a fastball from an ability standpoint and I don’t think that’s true,” [Bailey] added. “I think pitchers are able to leverage off-speed weapons, if not similarly or slightly above, with some certain pitch types and depending on feel and all that, that can be a learned skill. So as long as strike-throwing is in line and our process stats are in line, our ability to leverage our best pitches in and around the zone is vital to the success of our pitching staff.” theathletic.com/5384077/2024/04/02/red-sox-fastball-off-speed-pitch-usage/Anyone who's been reading these threads for a while knows the "modern" media is my whipping-boy. Stuff like this really drives home what's been lost. I know it's too much to expect these people to be Peter Gammons. I mean the guy is in the HoF for a reason. His dogged pursuit of sources, the constant digging, cultivating the people who actually make the game go... that's real work. Alex Speier seems to be on that trail. But some of these people really need to decide what they want to be when they grow up. Is the goal a Jon Heyman apprenticeship? Here's my take: that guy doesn't belong in the sports section at all. He's a business writer catering to the dialog between Boras, his acolytes, and ownership. How about hearing from the people who actually make the game what it is? Bailey surely fits the bill. Focus on where the real work actually gets done, please. Otherwise you've missed the boat to Cooperstown.
Add: A shout-out to Jen McCaffrey for doing some of that digging...
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Post by wamderingdude on Apr 2, 2024 11:47:28 GMT -5
I think there are very real concerns about the rotation, mainly the ability for all of them to throw 180 innings, but it was maddening that for months not one beat writer wrote “maybe it’s more valuable for the organization to give Houck and Whitlock these opportunities, especially with a new pitching coach, instead of overpaying for a free agent that won’t make a huge difference to their playoff odds this year.” You don’t even have to believe it, but it would have been nice to see one of them talk about that approach and why there are positives, especially long-term, to having those guys start versus a mid tier starter.
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Post by asm18 on Apr 2, 2024 12:03:20 GMT -5
Anyone who's been reading these threads for a while knows the "modern" media is my whipping-boy. Stuff like this really drives home what's been lost. I know it's too much to expect these people to be Peter Gammons. I mean the guy is in the HoF for a reason. His dogged pursuit of sources, the constant digging, cultivating the people who actually make the game go... that's real work. Alex Speier seems to be on that trail. But some of these people really need to decide what they want to be when they grow up. Is the goal a Jon Heyman apprenticeship? Here's my take: that guy doesn't belong in the sports section at all. He's a business writer catering to the dialog between Boras, his acolytes, and ownership. How about hearing from the people who actually make the game what it is? Bailey surely fits the bill. Focus on where the real work actually gets done, please. Otherwise you've missed the boat to Cooperstown.
Add: A shout-out to Jen McCaffrey for doing some of that digging...
Michael Lewis describing a baseball writer who was a harsh critic of Moneyball and Billy Beane's sabermetrically-inclined Oakland A's in the book's afterword: "Think of it! A guy who makes his living writing about baseball working himself up into a fine lather, year after year, about this radical experiment in Oakland and never once bothering to pick up the phone and ask Billy Beane what he’s up to." From "you could argue [most of the Red Sox starters] should be relievers" to... a 37:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio through the first turn of the rotation so far.
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Post by chaimtime on Apr 2, 2024 12:04:57 GMT -5
Well, these two dovetail nicely... Pete Abe having the curiosity level of a kiwi is unsurprising - but the fact that Andrew Bailey was saying for months "we should be in the upper echelon of pitching staffs in baseball", and not a single beat writer seemed to ask the basic follow up question of, "Hey Andrew, why do you think that?" is insane.Again, it's still very early - but Bailey was adamantly optimistic about the rotation all spring, and it seems the folks covering team chucked that up to bravado or him putting on a brave face instead of actually looking into it. That post really got me thinking about what's been lost. Here's the relevant information that insanity cost them... Really interesting article in The Athletic on Bailey's approach to pitch mix. There seems to be a lot of buy-in from the staff. A few blurbs: “Every pitch we make in a game is a bet,” Bailey said over the weekend. “You’re trying to drive a positive outcome. Off-speed pitches generally reduce damage and generate more swing and miss. So every pitch we throw is a business decision. Every pitch we throw is a bet that we’re betting on decreasing damage and reducing contact. So most times, you want to leverage your best off-speed weapons, understanding that you know there is room to use your fastballs when needed.” These are all things that were studied and implemented in previous years, but pitchers this season — at least in the early going of spring training and at the start of the regular season — seem to have a greater understanding and ownership of their plans. Throughout the spring, several pitchers complimented the structure of Bailey’s Run Prevention Unit with the amount of information given to them. It was a digestible plan and easy to follow. Most importantly it allows them to remember the info once they’re in game action where the pitch clock is counting down and there might be pressure from runners on base. “It gives you a little bit more of a concrete plan,” Pivetta said this spring. “(Bailey) gives you the right amount of information and it’s very structured about how they give it to you so that you’re not getting bogged down by everything because that can get overwhelming as a player.” “I think the history of baseball suggests that when you’re in disadvantaged counts, your best strike pitch is a fastball from an ability standpoint and I don’t think that’s true,” [Bailey] added. “I think pitchers are able to leverage off-speed weapons, if not similarly or slightly above, with some certain pitch types and depending on feel and all that, that can be a learned skill. So as long as strike-throwing is in line and our process stats are in line, our ability to leverage our best pitches in and around the zone is vital to the success of our pitching staff.” theathletic.com/5384077/2024/04/02/red-sox-fastball-off-speed-pitch-usage/Anyone who's been reading these threads for a while knows the "modern" media is my whipping-boy. Stuff like this really drives home what's been lost. I know it's too much to expect these people to be Peter Gammons. I mean the guy is in the HoF for a reason. His dogged pursuit of sources, the constant digging, cultivating the people who actually make the game go... that's real work. Alex Speier seems to be on that trail. But some of these people really need to decide what they want to be when they grow up.
Is the goal a Jon Heyman apprenticeship? Here's my take: that guy doesn't belong in the sports section at all. He's a business writer catering to the dialog between Boras, his acolytes, and ownership. How about hearing from the people who actually make the game what it is? Bailey surely fits the bill. Focus on where the real work actually gets done, please. Otherwise you've missed the boat to Cooperstown.
It just goes to show what the internet era has done to the industry. Look at where Fangraphs is compared to 10 years ago—there are good, informative writers there, but they don’t publish original research like they used to. There just isn’t the money to retain people who have the data skills to keep up with what front office analytics departments are doing these days. And let’s be honest, people in general are more likely to click on and engage with “Why the hell haven’t the Red Sox thrown the bag at Jordan Montgomery?” than they are “Signs this will be the year that Garrett Whitlock puts it all together,” even though the answer to the former was obvious from the first time it was reported that he was looking for a Rodon/Nola-level payday and the answers to the latter could provide a lot of insight into what the people running the team actually think.
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Post by asm18 on Apr 3, 2024 10:35:33 GMT -5
JFC
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 3, 2024 13:32:32 GMT -5
I think I've been too hard on Dombrowski. He sure made some great moves for the Sox
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Apr 3, 2024 19:47:28 GMT -5
I am glad to see that even with a new cast in the FO, you continue to work from the assumption that they know something no other person or organization does. I call it the “Eric Van/Zach Godley Hypothesis.” I hope you are right, but I’d say, for example, a 30-year old who has never pitched in America and was dumped by the Rays hardly counts as reliable depth. Maybe he is the next Koji-level discovery… but I am nervous to test that. Dumped by the Rays like ... Cooper Criswell?
Did you get that I implied that Uwasawa would be either the #7 or #8 starter? How high is that bar?
Track record of so far with non-established pitchers:
Traded Luis Urías to the Seattle Mariners. Received Isaiah Campbell. Traded Alex Verdugo to the New York Yankees. Received Richard Fitts (minors), Nicholas Judice (minors) and Greg Weissert. Traded Ryan Ammons (minors) to the New York Mets. Received Justin Slaten (minors). Signed Cooper Criswell as a free agent.
they know something no other person or organization does
No, no. The best organizations have figured out ways to make certain types of pitchers better. They have methodologies. It's not a mystic, guy-by-guy thing; it's "this guy fits the profile of guys who would benefit a lot from [X]."
[...] Is this similar to how the Red Sox must have figured out how to make Reese McGuire hit 337 .377 .500 .877 because that's what he did in 36 games for them in 2022? I seem to remember someone making that claim very confidently.
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Apr 3, 2024 20:02:19 GMT -5
I think I've been too hard on Dombrowski. He sure made some great moves for the Sox Klentak?
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 3, 2024 20:11:07 GMT -5
I think I've been too hard on Dombrowski. He sure made some great moves for the Sox Klentak? Wow I didn't realize Dombrowski had a year off! What is he good for?!
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 3, 2024 20:15:06 GMT -5
He's intriguing because the Rays obviously saw something in him and didn't want to get rid of him their hand was forced by the contract he signed. Results so far don't look anything other than awful but Tampa thought there was something there and so do Breslow and Bailey. Time will tell but the Rays traded him to the Sox for cash considerations, that leads me to believe they didn't think that highly of him after they got their hands on him. Feels like if they thought he'd be useful they would have found a way to keep in the Org but maybe he'll be a nice surprise. Either way the Sox have little to lose by snagging him since they're able to carry him on their 40 and keep him in Worcester until they need a spot starter. With (Giolito, Murphy, and Hendricks already on the 60-man DL) Walter hurt and like added to the 60-man list, the Red Sox have the 40-man space and the depth need to add a veteran starter, so no reason not to add him.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 3, 2024 20:32:21 GMT -5
Dumped by the Rays like ... Cooper Criswell?
Did you get that I implied that Uwasawa would be either the #7 or #8 starter? How high is that bar?
Track record of so far with non-established pitchers:
Traded Luis Urías to the Seattle Mariners. Received Isaiah Campbell. Traded Alex Verdugo to the New York Yankees. Received Richard Fitts (minors), Nicholas Judice (minors) and Greg Weissert. Traded Ryan Ammons (minors) to the New York Mets. Received Justin Slaten (minors). Signed Cooper Criswell as a free agent.
they know something no other person or organization does
No, no. The best organizations have figured out ways to make certain types of pitchers better. They have methodologies. It's not a mystic, guy-by-guy thing; it's "this guy fits the profile of guys who would benefit a lot from [X]."
And these teams soon become teams that don't need to add much pitching. So there are likely a few teams saying, damn, that closes the gap some, but we are full up with guys that are as good or better.
A final note ... one thing I have learned of late is that pessimists have no idea how they sound to other, else they would STF up. It's tiresome.
I mean, seriously ... I spend all winter arguing that the alleged bad rotation will be great, and so far it's playing just out as I thought ... and you feel compelled to go after any optimism over the #7 or 8 starter?
I wasn’t being a pessimist. I said the rotation is extremely talented. But, yes, if guys get hurt and they go to 6, 7, or god forbid 8… big time pessimist. Manfred 2.0, yes a reformed pessimist…..lol. At long last you are finally over M. B….(he who shall not be named). I best not use his name for fear of another rant.
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Post by bishop on Apr 3, 2024 22:04:27 GMT -5
Dumped by the Rays like ... Cooper Criswell?
Did you get that I implied that Uwasawa would be either the #7 or #8 starter? How high is that bar?
Track record of so far with non-established pitchers:
Traded Luis Urías to the Seattle Mariners. Received Isaiah Campbell. Traded Alex Verdugo to the New York Yankees. Received Richard Fitts (minors), Nicholas Judice (minors) and Greg Weissert. Traded Ryan Ammons (minors) to the New York Mets. Received Justin Slaten (minors). Signed Cooper Criswell as a free agent.
they know something no other person or organization does
No, no. The best organizations have figured out ways to make certain types of pitchers better. They have methodologies. It's not a mystic, guy-by-guy thing; it's "this guy fits the profile of guys who would benefit a lot from [X]."
[...] Is this similar to how the Red Sox must have figured out how to make Reese McGuire hit 337 .377 .500 .877 because that's what he did in 36 games for them in 2022? I seem to remember someone making that claim very confidently. I actually think there is a chance they have identified a Moneyball type angle by focusing on pitchers with great off speed movement who either threw too many fastballs or didn't try to throw off speed stuff in the zone and induce weaker contact enough. The pitch type numbers are incredibly stark, and the results are impressive even if SSS. I'm sure it will be short lived if this keeps up, but I also hope they're hiding some things from us with regards to tunneling or sequencing at least.
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