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Post by incandenza on May 7, 2024 22:44:07 GMT -5
Blake Snell, 2023: 180 IP, 2.25 ERA All Red Sox starters, 2024: 181 IP, 2.13 ERA
How is this even possible?
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Post by taiwansox on May 7, 2024 22:52:01 GMT -5
Blake Snell, 2023: 180 IP, 2.25 ERA All Red Sox starters, 2024: 181 IP, 2.13 ERA How is this even possible? (-) Dave Bush (+) Andrew Bailey
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Post by ematz1423 on May 8, 2024 8:36:33 GMT -5
Blake Snell, 2023: 180 IP, 2.25 ERA All Red Sox starters, 2024: 181 IP, 2.13 ERA How is this even possible? This for some reason brings me back to I forget exactly what year it was but the spring training when all the Sox starters wore T-shirts that said he's the ace. That's all I have to add at this point but gave me a chuckle remembering that nugget.
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Post by incandenza on May 8, 2024 9:25:30 GMT -5
Blake Snell, 2023: 180 IP, 2.25 ERA All Red Sox starters, 2024: 181 IP, 2.13 ERA How is this even possible? This for some reason brings me back to I forget exactly what year it was but the spring training when all the Sox starters wore T-shirts that said he's the ace. That's all I have to add at this point but gave me a chuckle remembering that nugget. It was 2015 and that team's starters (Buchholz, Miley, ERodriguez, Porcello, and Joe Kelly, plus fill-ins) managed a 4.39 ERA, 24th in the majors (though they were 13th by fWAR). It's funny that this year's starters are even more obscure but have been much better.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on May 8, 2024 9:28:03 GMT -5
Red Sox (as a team) - 2.68 ERA, 3.35 FIP
Houck - 1.99 ERA, 3.24 xERA, 2.06 FIP Crawford - 1.75 ERA, 2.92 xERA, 2.82 FIP Criswell - 1.74 ERA, 3.66 xERA, 3.58 FIP
Even if there's some inevitable regression - heck, Pivetta might have a blowup in his first start back against a potent Braves lineup tonight for all we know - the underlying numbers are still really good! If the rotation is made up of a bunch of guys with mid-to-low 3 ERA's, I will gladly take that. There are a lot of players whose early season numbers are a mirage, but that doesn't seem to be the case here. (Unlike say, Jose Berrios having a 1.50 ERA for the Blue Jays despite horrible numbers under the hood, who gave up 8 runs to the Phillies yesterday...)
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Post by seamus on May 8, 2024 11:10:28 GMT -5
It's funny to look at the current Baseball-Reference page for the AL showing Wins Above Average ( www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2024.shtml#all_team_output) and see that the Sox have insane starting pitching, a middle-of-the-road bullpen, an elite outfield, and a lousy infield. Even if you thought they would be a .500 or better team at this point in the season, I don't think a single unit is performing the way that most people expected. I was probably higher on this team than most, but if you had said they'd have a 22-14 Pythag on 5/8, I'd have assumed adequate rotation, great bullpen, solid outfield, and hot starts from the big boppers in the infield.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on May 13, 2024 11:25:40 GMT -5
Saw that Kyle Boddy (advisor to Breslow and founder of Driveline) responded to this ranking of MLB pitching based on Pitch Modeling data. At least according to this metric, Sox pitching success is in line with the talent on the field, as opposed to merely getting incredibly lucky with guys throwing meh "stuff."
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keninten
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Post by keninten on May 13, 2024 11:29:28 GMT -5
Saw that Kyle Boddy (advisor to Breslow and founder of Driveline) responded to this ranking of MLB pitching based on Pitch Modeling data. At least according to this metric, Sox pitching success is in line with the talent on the field, as opposed to merely getting incredibly lucky with guys throwing meh "stuff." 5 out of the top 8 are AL East teams.
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Post by incandenza on May 13, 2024 12:47:05 GMT -5
Hey look at that - the Rays are a LAST PLACE TEAM when it comes to pitching metrics.
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Post by soxin8 on May 13, 2024 12:54:38 GMT -5
Of the 130 people who voted in the preseason poll, did we ever determine who the 9 people who voted for Houck and the 5 people who voted for Whitlock were? That deserves some recognition.
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Post by incandenza on May 13, 2024 13:00:11 GMT -5
It ended up being 35 days between Pivetta starts and 23 days between Bello starts. Whitlock is at 26 days and counting.
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Post by itinerantherb on May 13, 2024 13:40:46 GMT -5
Of the 130 people who voted in the preseason poll, did we ever determine who the 9 people who voted for Houck and the 5 people who voted for Whitlock were? That deserves some recognition. This is probably a good time to mention that, although I hadn't yet registered on SP at the time of the poll and thus couldn't vote, back in March I definitely, 100% believed that by May 13, Cooper Criswell would make five starts and pitch 25.2 innings of 2.10 ball. I think I might have mentioned it to my cat, if you want to ask her.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on May 15, 2024 8:48:10 GMT -5
I’d keep Criswell in the rotation. Martin is getting hit hard. I think Whitlock can help win more games by being a 2 inning set up guy. Winck is getting stretched out if we need a spot start. Maybe, Fitts can also do that if needed.
Whitlock misses too much time to be a starter IMO. Some pitchers bodies/arms just don’t hold up with heavy usage. With a good rotation and deep pen, Cora can get the most out of Whitlock. We’re going to be in a lot of tight games after 5-6 innings. I feel that’s where he can be a tremendous asset.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 15, 2024 8:52:03 GMT -5
I’d keep Criswell in the rotation. Martin is getting hit hard. I think Whitlock can help win more games by being a 2 inning set up guy. Winck is getting stretched out if we need a spot start. Maybe, Fitts can also do that if needed. Whitlock misses too much time to be a starter IMO. Some pitchers bodies/arms just don’t hold up with heavy usage. With a good rotation and deep pen, Cora can get the most out of Whitlock. We’re going to be in a lot of tight games after 5-6 innings. I feel that’s where he can be a tremendous asset. I understand the rationale but I'm not leaving Whitlock out of the rotation for Criswell if I'm the Red Sox. Whitlock just has far more upside and there's no guarantee he stays healthier being a 2 inning setup guy anyway.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on May 15, 2024 9:17:43 GMT -5
I consider 3 consecutive seasons a pretty good sample. He started 9,10 and 4 games before getting hurt. He stayed healthy in 2021 when uses exclusively as a reliever. His first year back from TJ. Breslow is a lot smarter than me. We have to trust him at this point. Just my .02
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on May 15, 2024 9:30:56 GMT -5
This is less a rotation thing than a general pitching thing, but only four pitchers who have thrown a pitch for the Red Sox (including relief ace Pablo Reyes) currently have recorded an ERA over 4.00. Those 4 are:
Chase Anderson - used for garbage time only Joe Jacques - DFA'd, and was claimed by Arizona Joely Rodriguez - DFA'd and outrighted to Worcester. Is now hurt Isaiah Campbell - on the injured list
In comparison, last year the Sox only had 5 pitchers with more than like 20 innings who had under a 4.00 ERA: Martin, Winckowski, Bernardino, Jansen, Schreiber.
Wild.
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Post by incandenza on May 15, 2024 9:49:52 GMT -5
This is less a rotation thing than a general pitching thing, but only four pitchers who have thrown a pitch for the Red Sox (including relief ace Pablo Reyes) currently have recorded an ERA over 4.00. Those 4 are: Chase Anderson - used for garbage time only Joe Jacques - DFA'd, and was claimed by Arizona Joely Rodriguez - DFA'd and outrighted to Worcester. Is now hurt Isaiah Campbell - on the injured list In comparison, last year the Sox only had 5 pitchers with more than like 20 innings who had under a 4.00 ERA: Martin, Winckowski, Bernardino, Jansen, Schreiber. Wild. And *as a reliever* Anderson's ERA is 2.12. It's only over 4 because of his one bad spot start.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 15, 2024 10:04:46 GMT -5
Same with Campbell. He was lights out till the injury then he blew up.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on May 15, 2024 11:48:17 GMT -5
Wild is the word. Ironic too. I clearly remember the certitude here (my own included) that this team desperately NEEDED two or three new SP’s to compete because this team WILL hit. Baseball.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 17, 2024 17:24:42 GMT -5
He can’t stay healthy and it’s sucks…
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Post by ematz1423 on May 17, 2024 17:27:02 GMT -5
Ugh that's brutal news. Hopefully it just ends up being something minor.
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Post by greenmonster on May 17, 2024 17:36:42 GMT -5
With Whitlock no longer returning next week, I hope they find a way to get Houck the extra day rest which was hinted at after his last start
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on May 17, 2024 17:44:15 GMT -5
Damn - he looked so nasty in his rehab start too
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 19, 2024 19:41:47 GMT -5
So it remains:
Houck Crawford Pivetta Bello Criswell
There is an off day next Thursday which will provide an extra day of rest after the TB series. Hopefully the Whitlock delay is not serious.
Giolito has a player option for next year. I can not imagine him passing on that. I would assume he exercises it and is in the mix for a 2025 rotation spot…
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gerry
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Post by gerry on May 20, 2024 2:25:13 GMT -5
So, potentially, without any other signings, the 2025 rotation could include: Bello Crawford Criswell Fitts Giolito Houck Pivetta Whitlock Winkowski[ ?
Dang! That would be amazing! Thank you Bailey & Co.
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