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Post by jbuttah on Mar 29, 2024 8:53:38 GMT -5
Fangraphs has the Red Sox rotation as middling at best (21st in the majors by projected WAR). But it's interesting to see just how flat it as - relatively weaker at the front and stronger at the back. Here's how they rank when sorting each team's top 5 starters by projected WAR total:
SP1 (Bello): t-25th SP2 (Pivetta): t-21st SP3 (Crawford): t-18th SP4 (Houck): t-11th SP5 (Whitlock): t-5th
Funny. I was thinking last night how a rotation of all 3rd starters would do because I think all 5 of the Sox starters will end up pitching to that level. And if they're really lucky and Bailey is that good, they could end up with 2 2nd starters and 3 3rd starters.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Mar 29, 2024 11:07:50 GMT -5
Fangraphs has the Red Sox rotation as middling at best (21st in the majors by projected WAR). But it's interesting to see just how flat it as - relatively weaker at the front and stronger at the back. Here's how they rank when sorting each team's top 5 starters by projected WAR total:
SP1 (Bello): t-25th SP2 (Pivetta): t-21st SP3 (Crawford): t-18th SP4 (Houck): t-11th SP5 (Whitlock): t-5th
This illustrates the need for a true ace and makes me even happier that they didn't waste money on Montgomery. I feel confident in predicting that the top three starters will all outperform these expectations to some degree.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Mar 29, 2024 13:02:36 GMT -5
It's still early but so far the scorecard reads: Red Sox pathetic rotation* - 1 Mariners vaunted rotation - 0 *along with Pete Abe's snarky comment, Steve Adams of MLBTR described the Sox rotation as "in shambles" on their most recent podcast, implying that one reason the Sox didn't outbid Arizona for Montgomery is that they are punting on 2024, in part because the rest of the roster is "rife with holes." This reminds me of Bob Ryan's famous preseason claim about the 2008 Celtics: "Worst four through thirteen (players) in the league." That didn't age well for Hyperbolic Bob.
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Post by patford on Mar 29, 2024 13:21:54 GMT -5
It's still early but so far the scorecard reads: Red Sox pathetic rotation* - 1 Mariners vaunted rotation - 0 *along with Pete Abe's snarky comment, Steve Adams of MLBTR described the Sox rotation as "in shambles" on their most recent podcast, implying that one reason the Sox didn't outbid Arizona for Montgomery is that they are punting on 2024, in part because the rest of the roster is "rife with holes." This reminds me of Bob Ryan's famous preseason claim about the 2008 Celtics: "Worst four through thirteen (players) in the league." That didn't age well for Hyperbolic Bob. Yet today the Celtics have the worst one and the best two through thirteen in the league.
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Post by asm18 on Apr 1, 2024 7:22:34 GMT -5
It's kinda ironic to me that objective data-driven sources like Fangraphs or Eno Sarris have higher views of this rotation than the beat writers who cover the team every day. Peter Abraham wrote yesterday, "You can make a good argument that Crawford, Houck, Pivetta, and Whitlock are all relievers posing as starters," Peter Abraham recapping the Mariners series for the Globe: “If nothing else, the first series of the season proved what is possible for the Red Sox. Four starting pitchers faced the Seattle Mariners and allowed four earned runs on 14 hits over 22 innings with one walk and 27 strikeouts. A 1.64 earned run average for the Red Sox rotation through four games on the road. Not even Ippei Mizuhara would have bet on that.” “The usual caveats apply: It’s one series and a tiny sample size. Let’s see what this looks like in a month. All true. All valid. But the Sox went on the road against a good team and their starters were excellent.” What were some of the beat writers doing during Spring Training games when all these same pitchers were performing well literally in front of them for a month and a half
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badfishnbc
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Post by badfishnbc on Apr 1, 2024 8:54:28 GMT -5
What were some of the beat writers doing during Spring Training games when all these same pitchers were performing well literally in front of them for a month and a half In fairness, it's very easy to downplay spring training performances, both positive and negative. "Best shape of their lives" and "compelling new pitch mixes" have frequently become "designated for assignment" by May 1. I'm cautiously optimistic by this weekend's results. I'm interested to see how they respond as the league starts adjusting to Bailey's new strategies. But I can't overstate how confident the staff likely felt with an improved defense behind them.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 1, 2024 8:57:41 GMT -5
It's kinda ironic to me that objective data-driven sources like Fangraphs or Eno Sarris have higher views of this rotation than the beat writers who cover the team every day. Peter Abraham wrote yesterday, "You can make a good argument that Crawford, Houck, Pivetta, and Whitlock are all relievers posing as starters," Peter Abraham recapping the Mariners series for the Globe: “If nothing else, the first series of the season proved what is possible for the Red Sox. Four starting pitchers faced the Seattle Mariners and allowed four earned runs on 14 hits over 22 innings with one walk and 27 strikeouts. A 1.64 earned run average for the Red Sox rotation through four games on the road. Not even Ippei Mizuhara would have bet on that.” “The usual caveats apply: It’s one series and a tiny sample size. Let’s see what this looks like in a month. All true. All valid. But the Sox went on the road against a good team and their starters were excellent.” What were some of the beat writers doing during Spring Training games when all these same pitchers were performing well literally in front of them for a month and a half It took a bit of imagination and analytical inclination to see the road to this staff being a success. Pete Abraham does not fit that bill, so offering up the thoughts of your typical casual fan here is what I would expect from him.
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Post by asm18 on Apr 1, 2024 9:44:44 GMT -5
It took a bit of imagination and analytical inclination to see the road to this staff being a success. Pete Abraham does not fit that bill, so offering up the thoughts of your typical casual fan here is what I would expect from him. Pete Abe having the curiosity level of a kiwi is unsurprising - but the fact that Andrew Bailey was saying for months "we should be in the upper echelon of pitching staffs in baseball", and not a single beat writer seemed to ask the basic follow up question of, "Hey Andrew, why do you think that?" is insane. Again, it's still very early - but Bailey was adamantly optimistic about the rotation all spring, and it seems the folks covering team chucked that up to bravado or him putting on a brave face instead of actually looking into it.
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Post by manfred on Apr 1, 2024 9:57:26 GMT -5
Don’t let anyone get hurt patting themselves on backs… because the rotation has tons of talent and zero depth. If these 5 stay healthy, they will make lots of people eat their words. But my fingers remain crossed.
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Post by costpet on Apr 1, 2024 10:07:36 GMT -5
If the staff stays healthy and Devers has no more injuries, it could be a fun season.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 1, 2024 10:11:13 GMT -5
The question for the rotation and possibly the team as a whole is can their 5 SPs mostly stay healthy to the deadline? At least that is the question in my mind. I do think that the five starters as assembled have enough talent and ability to pitch well enough to keep the team competitively afloat. There are going to be missed/replacement starts at some point it's just the belly of the beast with baseball, however if they get relatively good injury luck and those missed starts are more short term and not multiple guys at once I don't see why they can't stay in the race to hopefully go out and get reinforcements at the deadline.
The potential is there to have a solid staff, but the potential is also there that the wheels fall off and they fall flat on their face.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 1, 2024 10:38:08 GMT -5
Don’t let anyone get hurt patting themselves on backs… because the rotation has tons of talent and zero depth. If these 5 stay healthy, they will make lots of people eat their words. But my fingers remain crossed. To be fair, plenty of people were questioning the talent too, but those voices are a lot quieter now. Criswell looked good in spring training and I wouldn't doubt him being decent as a fill-in. We'll see about guys like Anderson and Uwasawa, but I do think it's too early to count them out. Fitts has been encouraging too and could be a solid depth option for the second half. If most of the rotation gets hurt simultaneously I don't doubt the pitching will suffer in a big way, but I'm not sure there's a rotation in baseball that couldn't be said for.
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badfishnbc
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Post by badfishnbc on Apr 1, 2024 10:49:45 GMT -5
Sorta a sidebar, but worth noting that Worcester's two starters gave up zero walks in their starts as well. "Throw strikes," indeed.
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Post by bishop on Apr 1, 2024 11:08:45 GMT -5
Will be interesting to track the changes, not sure if some things were turned up to 11 because we thought the Mariners would struggle vs spin. Last year the Giants were dead last with 14.7% four seam (Sox 28th at 26.1%) and first in Slider rate at 31.9% (Sox were 21st at 19.9%). Currently the Sox are dead last with 10.9% four seam fastballs, Giants 29th 16.8% and Houston a distant 28th at 23.0%, Sox are also 2nd with 34.7% Sliders (Oakland in 1st at 36.2% - look for the offspeed in that series!) Red Sox do throw a decent amount more cutters than SF did under Bailey, they like the sinker more, but that's good if Bailey is adaptable and finding what pitches and grips work for different guys, it sounds from the anecdotes like he has. (And it looks like a lot of the cutters are being thrown by Jansen and Martin at the back end of the bullpen not the starters.)
Individually Bello was 100% Sinker/Slider/Changeup by Statcast after 21% fastballs last year, Whitlock didn't really throw them last year but is still super low at 94% Sinker/Slider/Change and a few cutters thrown in. Pivetta and Crawford are still throwing a decent amount of fastballs (48% and 52% combined 4-seam/cutters respectively) but that's down from 59% and 75%. Pivetta was also closer to an even 4-seam/cutter split after being very heavily 4-seam last year and ranking 2nd among starters in Stuff+ for that 4 seam. (To Jared Jones - side note, run don't walk to pick up Jared Jones if you're looking for a high upside flier in fantasy, the metrics LOVE his stuff.)
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Post by manfred on Apr 1, 2024 11:10:14 GMT -5
Don’t let anyone get hurt patting themselves on backs… because the rotation has tons of talent and zero depth. If these 5 stay healthy, they will make lots of people eat their words. But my fingers remain crossed. To be fair, plenty of people were questioning the talent too, but those voices are a lot quieter now. Criswell looked good in spring training and I wouldn't doubt him being decent as a fill-in. We'll see about guys like Anderson and Uwasawa, but I do think it's too early to count them out. Fitts has been encouraging too and could be a solid depth option for the second half. If most of the rotation gets hurt simultaneously I don't doubt the pitching will suffer in a big way, but I'm not sure there's a rotation in baseball that couldn't be said for. Totally agree. But especially with Whitlock, we know he’s good and has been great (at least in the pen), but we definitely do not know if he can stay of the IL. The only starter I’d confidently bet to clear 150 innings is Pivetta.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 1, 2024 11:12:44 GMT -5
To be fair, plenty of people were questioning the talent too, but those voices are a lot quieter now. Criswell looked good in spring training and I wouldn't doubt him being decent as a fill-in. We'll see about guys like Anderson and Uwasawa, but I do think it's too early to count them out. Fitts has been encouraging too and could be a solid depth option for the second half. If most of the rotation gets hurt simultaneously I don't doubt the pitching will suffer in a big way, but I'm not sure there's a rotation in baseball that couldn't be said for. Totally agree. But especially with Whitlock, we know he’s good and has been great (at least in the pen), but we definitely do not know if he can stay of the IL. The only starter I’d confidently bet to clear 150 innings is Pivetta. I would be confident betting on Bello going past 150, he's done it the last two years. I wouldn't bet on anyone in the rotation other than him and Pivetta to do so though I agree with you.
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badfishnbc
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Post by badfishnbc on Apr 1, 2024 12:49:45 GMT -5
Will be interesting to track the changes, not sure if some things were turned up to 11 because we thought the Mariners would struggle vs spin. Last year the Giants were dead last with 14.7% four seam (Sox 28th at 26.1%) and first in Slider rate at 31.9% (Sox were 21st at 19.9%). Currently the Sox are dead last with 10.9% four seam fastballs, Giants 29th 16.8% and Houston a distant 28th at 23.0%, Sox are also 2nd with 34.7% Sliders (Oakland in 1st at 36.2% - look for the offspeed in that series!) Red Sox do throw a decent amount more cutters than SF did under Bailey, they like the sinker more, but that's good if Bailey is adaptable and finding what pitches and grips work for different guys, it sounds from the anecdotes like he has. (And it looks like a lot of the cutters are being thrown by Jansen and Martin at the back end of the bullpen not the starters.) Individually Bello was 100% Sinker/Slider/Changeup by Statcast after 21% fastballs last year, Whitlock didn't really throw them last year but is still super low at 94% Sinker/Slider/Change and a few cutters thrown in. Pivetta and Crawford are still throwing a decent amount of fastballs (48% and 52% combined 4-seam/cutters respectively) but that's down from 59% and 75%. Pivetta was also closer to an even 4-seam/cutter split after being very heavily 4-seam last year and ranking 2nd among starters in Stuff+ for that 4 seam. (To Jared Jones - side note, run don't walk to pick up Jared Jones if you're looking for a high upside flier in fantasy, the metrics LOVE his stuff.) Do we have a sense of injuries for teams whose staffs rely so heavily on a spin-based mix?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 1, 2024 13:12:55 GMT -5
Don’t let anyone get hurt patting themselves on backs… because the rotation has tons of talent and zero depth. If these 5 stay healthy, they will make lots of people eat their words. But my fingers remain crossed. Not remotely true.
They had all sorts of chances to add a starter from the usual sources when Giolito went down and they chose not to, because they had done something with Cooper Criswell (as planned, no doubt) that makes him a solid sixth starter. They then added Naoyuki Uwasawa whose last three years with the Nippon Ham Fighters had ERA's of 2.81, 3.38, 2.96 in 24, 25, 24 starts -- and it's almost certain that they see something in him that can make him better, because that's how they roll. And they have Richard Fitts whom they are high on (like everyone they have acquired) and is thought to be a couple of months from being MLB ready.
They may be gambling a bit that they don't have to put two guys on the IL before Uwasawa or Fitts fits is ready, but we don't know what the former's time table is.
Hint: one thing that ain't gonna work this year is "the front office made a mistake that I have spotted."
(Case in point: I thought that ownership had vetoed re-signing Duvall, but it's now clear that a) the F.O. had a strong reason to believe that Rafaela would come to ST with hugely better swing decisions, and b) given how late Duvall signed with the Braves, they had him waiting in case they were wrong.)
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 1, 2024 13:16:20 GMT -5
Don’t let anyone get hurt patting themselves on backs… because the rotation has tons of talent and zero depth. If these 5 stay healthy, they will make lots of people eat their words. But my fingers remain crossed. Not remotely true.
They had all sorts of chances to add a starter from the usual sources when Giolito went down and they chose not to, because they had done something with Cooper Criswell (as planned, no doubt) that makes him a solid sixth starter. They then added Naoyuki Uwasawa whose last three years with the Nippon Ham Fighters had ERA's of 2.81, 3.38, 2.96 in 24, 25, 24 starts -- and it's almost certain that they see something in him that can make made better, because that's how they roll. And they have Richard Fitts whom they are high on (like everyone they have acquired) and is thought to be a couple of months from being MLB ready.
They may be gambling a bit that they don't have to put two guys on the IL before Uwasawa or Fitts fits is ready, but we don't know what the former's time table is.
Hint: one thing that ain't gonna work this year is "the front office made a mistake that I have spotted."
(Case in point: I thought that ownership had vetoed re-signing Duvall, but it's now clear that a) the F.O. had a strong reason to believe that Rafaela would come to ST with hugely better swing decisions, and b) given how late Duvall signed with the Braves, they had him waiting in case they were wrong.) Wait why is point a clear? I'm hopeful about Rafaela but the early season results don't match that. I mean it's a super tiny sample size so I don't think we know anything either way, but he's swung at 60% of pitches outside the zone so far, struck out in 40% of PAs and walked zero times.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Apr 1, 2024 13:16:22 GMT -5
Would love to see an updated scouting report/analysis from SoxProspects leadership on Kutter Crawford. He has already surpassed his scouting report projected ceiling in a pretty significant way:
"Projects as middle reliever. Ceiling of a high-quality swingman, capable of pitching in short or long relief outings with the occasional spot start as well."
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Smittyw
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Post by Smittyw on Apr 1, 2024 13:42:53 GMT -5
Would love to see an updated scouting report/analysis from SoxProspects leadership on Kutter Crawford. He has already surpassed his scouting report projected ceiling in a pretty significant way: "Projects as middle reliever. Ceiling of a high-quality swingman, capable of pitching in short or long relief outings with the occasional spot start as well." Agreed. He's definitely an underrated success story from a system famously unable to develop pitching (and already #2 all-time in bWAR from a Sox 16th rounder, though he has a ways to go to catch Oil Can Boyd). A happy 28th birthday to Kutter as well!
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Post by manfred on Apr 1, 2024 13:52:11 GMT -5
Don’t let anyone get hurt patting themselves on backs… because the rotation has tons of talent and zero depth. If these 5 stay healthy, they will make lots of people eat their words. But my fingers remain crossed. Not remotely true.
They had all sorts of chances to add a starter from the usual sources when Giolito went down and they chose not to, because they had done something with Cooper Criswell (as planned, no doubt) that makes him a solid sixth starter. They then added Naoyuki Uwasawa whose last three years with the Nippon Ham Fighters had ERA's of 2.81, 3.38, 2.96 in 24, 25, 24 starts -- and it's almost certain that they see something in him that can make him better, because that's how they roll. And they have Richard Fitts whom they are high on (like everyone they have acquired) and is thought to be a couple of months from being MLB ready.
They may be gambling a bit that they don't have to put two guys on the IL before Uwasawa or Fitts fits is ready, but we don't know what the former's time table is.
Hint: one thing that ain't gonna work this year is "the front office made a mistake that I have spotted."
(Case in point: I thought that ownership had vetoed re-signing Duvall, but it's now clear that a) the F.O. had a strong reason to believe that Rafaela would come to ST with hugely better swing decisions, and b) given how late Duvall signed with the Braves, they had him waiting in case they were wrong.) I am glad to see that even with a new cast in the FO, you continue to work from the assumption that they know something no other person or organization does. I call it the “Eric Van/Zach Godley Hypothesis.” I hope you are right, but I’d say, for example, a 30-year old who has never pitched in America and was dumped by the Rays hardly counts as reliable depth. Maybe he is the next Koji-level discovery… but I am nervous to test that.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 1, 2024 14:00:53 GMT -5
Uwasawa to me feels like a "break glass in case of emergency" type guy. He's likely 7th in the pecking order right now, I could see him having a solid few start stretch when he comes up since he's new to the league but he sounds to me like a guy who once the book is out may get T'ed up on.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 1, 2024 14:18:33 GMT -5
Not remotely true. They had all sorts of chances to add a starter from the usual sources when Giolito went down and they chose not to, because they had done something with Cooper Criswell (as planned, no doubt) that makes him a solid sixth starter. They then added Naoyuki Uwasawa whose last three years with the Nippon Ham Fighters had ERA's of 2.81, 3.38, 2.96 in 24, 25, 24 starts -- and it's almost certain that they see something in him that can make him better, because that's how they roll. And they have Richard Fitts whom they are high on (like everyone they have acquired) and is thought to be a couple of months from being MLB ready.
They may be gambling a bit that they don't have to put two guys on the IL before Uwasawa or Fitts fits is ready, but we don't know what the former's time table is. Hint: one thing that ain't gonna work this year is "the front office made a mistake that I have spotted." (Case in point: I thought that ownership had vetoed re-signing Duvall, but it's now clear that a) the F.O. had a strong reason to believe that Rafaela would come to ST with hugely better swing decisions, and b) given how late Duvall signed with the Braves, they had him waiting in case they were wrong.) I am glad to see that even with a new cast in the FO, you continue to work from the assumption that they know something no other person or organization does. I call it the “Eric Van/Zach Godley Hypothesis.” I hope you are right, but I’d say, for example, a 30-year old who has never pitched in America and was dumped by the Rays hardly counts as reliable depth. Maybe he is the next Koji-level discovery… but I am nervous to test that. The Red Sox are always smarter than everybody else because they are Eric's favorite team, which sounds like a scientifically valid basis for his assumption, lol Let's hope one day we really can assume that.
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Post by patford on Apr 1, 2024 14:24:36 GMT -5
Uwasawa to me feels like a "break glass in case of emergency" type guy. He's likely 7th in the pecking order right now, I could see him having a solid few start stretch when he comes up since he's new to the league but he sounds to me like a guy who once the book is out may get T'ed up on. He's intriguing because the Rays obviously saw something in him and didn't want to get rid of him their hand was forced by the contract he signed. Results so far don't look anything other than awful but Tampa thought there was something there and so do Breslow and Bailey.
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