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2013 Non-Sox MLB Discussion
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 29, 2013 15:57:19 GMT -5
Explanation for why they pulled Darvish? Saving him for the second wild card game? Hunter Pence re-signs with San Fran for 5/90. Can we stop pretending Brian Sabean is a good GM now? Depends, are we measuring GMs on World Series titles? Does the "how" matter?
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 29, 2013 16:24:59 GMT -5
Darvish pulled in a 2-2 game in the 6th after 84 pitches. Texas needs a win to tie for the 2nd WC and now their best player is out. Wouldn't mind seeing TB and TEX being forced to play a game just to get into the play in game vs. Cleveland Think it's a great move, if he's going on 2 days rest vs Cle, against say Justin Masterson.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 29, 2013 16:52:49 GMT -5
Not sure where to post this and probably not worth a topic of it's own...
Wher do some of you gents (and ladies) watch your winter league games at? Is there a certain site? I have been just hit and miss at going around various places the last few seasons. Mostly in Spanish, which is ok. Mine isn't great, but just watching and picking out enough Espanol is good enough to enjoy. Aussie BB even would be fine.
Might be great for others also if something was here on that, or might be already?
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 29, 2013 16:55:45 GMT -5
Now 6-2 TEX, bottom 8th. Looks like TEX-TB tomorrow, with the winner playing CLE on Wednesday and the winner of the Wed. game flying directly to BOS to face the Red Sox on Friday.
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Post by mredsox89 on Sept 29, 2013 17:07:23 GMT -5
Anyone projected out starters for the game tomorrow?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 29, 2013 22:07:50 GMT -5
Not sure where to post this and probably not worth a topic of it's own... Wher do some of you gents (and ladies) watch your winter league games at? Is there a certain site? I have been just hit and miss at going around various places the last few seasons. Mostly in Spanish, which is ok. Mine isn't great, but just watching and picking out enough Espanol is good enough to enjoy. Aussie BB even would be fine. Might be great for others also if something was here on that, or might be already? We'll have a thread about winter ball. Might be a good idea to bring this back up in there. I personally don't watch any.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Sept 30, 2013 13:19:16 GMT -5
So The Cubs fired the Sveum guy. Maybe Bobby V wasn't a bad 1-year hiatus choice.
I expect the ex to come calling to let them interview some of the current Sox. Can't forget about us.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 30, 2013 13:23:43 GMT -5
Explanation for why they pulled Darvish? Saving him for the second wild card game? Can we stop pretending Brian Sabean is a good GM now? Depends, are we measuring GMs on World Series titles? Does the "how" matter? I basically rate them on regular season wins because I don't think a GM can do much more to win a world series than get his team to the playoffs (or win the division under the current system).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 5, 2013 23:07:29 GMT -5
Does anyone else see Lowrie, Moss and Reddick hitting 2nd, 4th and 7th for a playoff baseball team and think...wtf?
I was always very high on all 3 - but never thought I would see that.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Oct 5, 2013 23:13:43 GMT -5
I was high on Moss as well, but never saw him hitting 30 bombs in the bigs. I had to do a double-take when I saw that.
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Post by mredsox89 on Oct 5, 2013 23:38:07 GMT -5
Nice win for the A's. Gray was sensational and went toe to toe with Verlander.
Sox end up the only team to win the first two. Sweep with Clay on the mound would be fantastic and give them an extra 2+ days to continue to mend
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 6, 2013 0:23:35 GMT -5
Fabulous victory for the Red Sox West Coast Edition. Great to be the only team up 2-0, as befits the best team in baseball. And anyone who set that game up on their DVR, and forgot to give it extra time, and then went to bed mid-game, with plans to watch the end over breakfast tomorrow (before looking at the Sunday paper or going online), will discover that their recording runs out during the commercial break when they're bringing in Porcello to pitch to Vogt! (The only reason I know this is that the Infinity X1 software is incredibly glitchy -- recordings disappearing after a day or two, others showing up with "383616h6m" as their length and hence no progress bar, and in this case I swore I added extra time. Fortunately I was watching live.) (I learned my extra-time lesson the hard way ... if you recall the 2002 game where Terence Long robbed Manny of a two-out walk-off homer, that recording ran out on me the pitch before.)
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Post by dewey1972 on Oct 6, 2013 5:40:36 GMT -5
Where did Brandon Moss's power come from? He had the second highest isolated power against righties in the majors this year. Was that kind of power predicted by anyone? It certainly wasn't evident in his minor league numbers.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 6, 2013 8:01:52 GMT -5
Here's a cool set of numbers -- career splits by batting order positions for all the active post-season starting pitchers.
The difference between a pitcher's performance against 3 & 4 hitters and their performance against 7 through 9 tells you how much they feast on crap hitting, which in turn tells you how much value they gain or lose when facing a great lineup like ours. It's a lot less relevant for most other post-season matchups.
Note that this is relative. Charlie Morton, if we face him, is not going to shut us down, even though his split is impressive, and Verlander is not going to get rocked, even though his split isn't. But Morton can be expected to be somewhat better than his usual merely good, and Verlander a bit worse than his usual dominant self.
The number used is TAv / EqA, estimated from OBP and SA. Remember that .265 is MLB average for non-pitchers.
NB: The numbers for 3&4 and 5&6 may be off a point or two, since they're simply based on the average of the lines for each individual position.
This first group of pitchers have conventional splits, where they have the most trouble with 3 & 4 hitters and the most success against 7 through 9. The "Diff" column is the difference between those two. The "Oth" column is how hard they've been hit by 1, 2, 5, and 6 hitters, relative to the midpoint of their 3&4 vs. 7-9 split. I've begun each list with the 2013 MLB average splits, for reference.
Pitcher Team 1&2 3&4 5&6 7-9 Diff Oth 2013 MLB .254 .275 .255 .237 .038 -.002 Medlen Atl .246 .248 .238 .233 .015 .001 Morton Pit .287 .296 .289 .274 .022 .003 Price TB .221 .244 .244 .219 .025 .001 Sanchez Det .252 .270 .249 .242 .028 -.006 Wainwr StL .230 .258 .253 .226 .032 -.001 Burnett Pit .256 .273 .251 .239 .034 -.003 Lackey Bos .260 .276 .261 .239 .037 .003 Colon Oak .258 .275 .254 .238 .037 -.001 Buchh Bos .246 .265 .259 .220 .045 .010 Nolasco LAD .263 .287 .263 .235 .052 .002 Peavy Bos .240 .270 .253 .215 .055 .004 Verlan Det .235 .269 .228 .208 .061 -.007 Minor Atl .260 .283 .251 .221 .062 .004 Garcia Atl .264 .298 .250 .222 .076 -.003 Hellick TB .226 .295 .258 .217 .078 -.014 Moore TB .231 .286 .262 .207 .079 .000 Ryu LAD .254 .274 .254 .190 .084 .022 Cole Pit .237 .310 .213 .196 .114 -.028
Burnett, Lackey, and Colon are the poster children for normality, which somehow feels right. Ryu has been average against everyone except the bottom of the order, who he has dominated utterly. Cole, in contrast, has dominated everyone but 3 and 4 hitters, who have killed him.
Buchholz this year, by the way, is .232, .171, .237, .176.
The next group of guys have been tougher on 5 & 6 hitters than on 7 through 9. For some (Teheran, Gray, maybe Cobb), that's probably a SSS fluke. I'm not sure what it says about Kershaw, Lester and Fister.
Pitcher Team 1&2 3&4 5&6 7-9 Diff Oth 2013 MLB .254 .275 .255 .237 .038 -.002 Fister Det .247 .254 .227 .237 .017 -.009 Lester Bos .247 .265 .242 .244 .021 -.010 Kershaw LAD .231 .239 .201 .212 .027 -.009 Teheran Atl .261 .281 .235 .241 .040 -.013 Cobb TB .238 .272 .216 .226 .046 -.022 Gray Oak .198 .277 .167 .189 .088 -.051 Sonny Gray's splits tell you that his performance last night was as much about the Tigers' offensive funk as it was about his studliness. He's been league-average against 3 & 4 hitters and has dominated everyone else.
These guys have been hit hardest by 5 & 6 hitters. Those hitters tend to be the guys who get the most value from SA relative to OBP. The first three guys, however, have also been hit harder by 1 & 2 hitters than by 3 & 4. So, again, I'm not sure what to make of this, which is why I want to make a full investigation of splits by opposing quality, including breakdowns by handedness and hitting components.
Pitcher Team 1&2 3&4 5&6 7-9 Diff Oth 2013 MLB .254 .275 .255 .237 .038 -.002 Lynn StL .276 .245 .279 .239 .006 .036 Greinke LAD .251 .243 .272 .234 .009 .023 Liriano Pit .259 .246 .264 .234 .012 .022 Straily Oak .235 .245 .298 .213 .032 .038 Scherz Det .242 .259 .271 .226 .033 .014 Finally, four young pitchers with reverse splits (including one who isn't expected to start, but maybe ought to).
Pitcher Team 1&2 3&4 5&6 7-9 Diff Oth Parker Oak .295 .203 .230 .222 -.019 .050 Kelly StL .273 .255 .259 .275 -.020 .001 Doubr Bos .283 .251 .255 .276 -.025 .006 Wacha StL .219 .236 .143 .294 -.058 -.084 That Joe Kelly and Doubront have such similar splits probably tells you something, but what?
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Post by jmei on Oct 6, 2013 10:53:20 GMT -5
Does anyone else see Lowrie, Moss and Reddick hitting 2nd, 4th and 7th for a playoff baseball team and think...wtf? I was always very high on all 3 - but never thought I would see that. As others have mentioned, Moss is the real outlier there. Lowrie always hit really well when healthy, and he's been healthy for the whole season this year. As for Reddick, he suffered from the same underappreciation that Jose Iglesias recently went though-- a focus on what they couldn't do (plate discipline for both) as opposed to what they could do (contact for Iglesias, power for Reddick), the shine wearing off as they entered post-prospect status, and shiny new toys coming up behind them. Plus, Reddick's defensive value was never truly appreciated in Boston. Despite coming off a 1.8 fWAR season in only 278 PAs, he was treated as a disposable piece in the Bailey trade. As for Moss, his success is mainly due to being heavily platooned. He's seen just 18% of his PAs versus lefties, while league average is closer to 28%. He's hitting .268/.353/.552 with 26 HRs off righties, while just .200/.261/.388 with 4 HRs off lefties. Credit Bob Melvin and Billy Beane for identifying an undervalued asset and then actually sticking to a strict platoon to get the most value possible out of him.
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Post by jmei on Oct 6, 2013 11:00:11 GMT -5
Where did Brandon Moss's power come from? He had the second highest isolated power against righties in the majors this year. Was that kind of power predicted by anyone? It certainly wasn't evident in his minor league numbers. He always hit for very good power in the minors and had a couple stretches with ISOs close to where he is now. I'd imagine a combination of being more heavily platooned, continued physical maturation, and swinging for the fences on most of the hacks he takes.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 6, 2013 13:57:35 GMT -5
Question for the board:
Does Ryu get a pass on mandatory 2y military service for all South Koreans for being a part of the Korean Gold Medal team? I remember think it was Choo getting it when he was a part of one, or has Ryu already put in his 2y perhaps? Wondering if anyone knows perhaps?
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Post by elguapo on Oct 7, 2013 9:43:07 GMT -5
Does anyone else see Lowrie, Moss and Reddick hitting 2nd, 4th and 7th for a playoff baseball team and think...wtf? Lowrie 2nd and Reddick 7th are not a surprise at all. Lowrie has always been good, just had a hard time staying on the field. Reddick is an obvious choice for the bottom 3rd of the lineup. Moss slugging enough to thrive outside of RF -- that I did not see coming.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 7, 2013 22:24:16 GMT -5
Noticed the Fish outrighted Kevin Slowey today. He'll surely declare himself a FA.
He's actually a servicable back end SP and has been the last few seasons. Extreme FB pitcher. Numbers (overall) about the same, or better than Doubrant even.
He's one of that pile of "rubbish throwers" I used to pick on the Twins had in their rotation a few years ago, but he always managed to get people out and eat innings. Was thinking if the Sox maybe could get him on a split contract, they could maybe move Doubront in a deal since they already have Workman ready and Ranaudo and others nearly there with Slowey as insurance.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 7, 2013 22:42:31 GMT -5
Noticed the Fish outrighted Kevin Slowey today. He'll surely declare himself a FA. He's actually a servicable back end SP and has been the last few seasons. Extreme FB pitcher. Numbers (overall) about the same, or better than Doubrant even. He's one of that pile of "rubbish throwers" I used to pick on the Twins had in their rotation a few years ago, but he always managed to get people out and eat innings. Was thinking if the Sox maybe could get him on a split contract, they could maybe move Doubront in a deal since they already have Workman ready and Ranaudo and others nearly there with Slowey as insurance. Acquiring Kevin Slowey should have no impact on trading Doubront though. He certainly doesn't replace Doubront, he's just a depth body...and honestly the Red Sox could probably do better internally and externally.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 8, 2013 18:49:07 GMT -5
Anyone been watching this A's-Tigers game? It's been a crazy back-and-fourth game. 5-4 in the 8th. Reddick showing some of that WMB syndrome - actually, Josh has a worse case of it than Will these days; as an overall player, he gets a huge value boost with terrific OF defense and good baserunning - with a pretty terrible approach in a critical bases-loaded at-bat.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 8, 2013 19:19:10 GMT -5
Anyone been watching this A's-Tigers game? It's been a crazy back-and-fourth game. 5-4 in the 8th. Reddick showing some of that WMB syndrome - actually, Josh has a worse case of it than Will these days; as an overall player, he gets a huge value boost with terrific OF defense and good baserunning - with a pretty terrible approach in a critical bases-loaded at-bat. After a post-season of mostly lackluster blowouts, we've had amazing games in the ALDS yesterday and today. (I haven't watched the Braves / Dodgers game yet, so I don't know how exciting it was, though I know who won.) It's why I've taken to trying to watch and score every post-season game the past few years; you never know when you'll catch a classic.
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Post by nexus on Oct 9, 2013 7:20:47 GMT -5
No one has really discussed it, but Sonny Gray has now pitched 190+ innings in 2013 - up 38+ innings from last year. How far do the A's push it if he goes tomorrow night and they win?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 9, 2013 7:46:49 GMT -5
No one has really discussed it, but Sonny Gray has now pitched 190+ innings in 2013 - up 38+ innings from last year. How far do the A's push it if he goes tomorrow night and they win?Maybe they ratchet the pitch counts down a bit but you've gotta keep giving him starts until there's some tangible reason (as opposed to just an innings count) not to.
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Post by elguapo on Oct 9, 2013 9:23:15 GMT -5
Anyone been watching this A's-Tigers game? It's been a crazy back-and-fourth game. 5-4 in the 8th. Reddick showing some of that WMB syndrome - actually, Josh has a worse case of it than Will these days; as an overall player, he gets a huge value boost with terrific OF defense and good baserunning - with a pretty terrible approach in a critical bases-loaded at-bat. That was a great game. Scherzer was awesome after loading the bases with no outs. Great theater. Reddick ... is and will always be exploitable, and ended up looking foolish that at-bat, but he's gone from 6% to 8% to 10% walk rate over the last three years and cut down on his K's a little, so I'm higher on him than I've been in a while.
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