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Post by chaimtime on Jan 1, 2024 15:39:40 GMT -5
Been seeing some rumors about Seattle moving Luis Castillo. They make sense—Castillo makes good money, and they seem to still be in cost-cutting mode. They have the young pitching to take that hit, and Castillo’s contract is pretty reasonable, so the package should bring back a meaningful addition for the roster.
Curious how people would feel about a Duran-based package. They really need outfielders, and it’s always felt like he fits better in a deal for a veteran than a pre-FA stud. On the Sox’ side, I don’t think anyone would disagree that they could use Luis Castillo next year. And he’s making Trevor Story money—he doesn’t have to be an ace until he’s 35 to be worth his salary. Seems like it would balance the financial and prospect costs of adding quality starting pitching.
I haven’t thought about it too much, so I’m not super sure about the valuations and what the full package would look like. I’d imagine it would be more complex than a 1-for-1 swap, and it probably guarantees a Kenley dump, so it might be easier said than done. But it feels like the type of opportunity they would want to take advantage of.
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Post by kwodes on Jan 1, 2024 16:26:43 GMT -5
Been seeing some rumors about Seattle moving Luis Castillo. They make sense—Castillo makes good money, and they seem to still be in cost-cutting mode. They have the young pitching to take that hit, and Castillo’s contract is pretty reasonable, so the package should bring back a meaningful addition for the roster. Curious how people would feel about a Duran-based package. They really need outfielders, and it’s always felt like he fits better in a deal for a veteran than a pre-FA stud. On the Sox’ side, I don’t think anyone would disagree that they could use Luis Castillo next year. And he’s making Trevor Story money—he doesn’t have to be an ace until he’s 35 to be worth his salary. Seems like it would balance the financial and prospect costs of adding quality starting pitching. I haven’t thought about it too much, so I’m not super sure about the valuations and what the full package would look like. I’d imagine it would be more complex than a 1-for-1 swap, and it probably guarantees a Kenley dump, so it might be easier said than done. But it feels like the type of opportunity they would want to take advantage of. I actually thought the same thing. Seattle seems to be in cost-cutting mode and a surplus of SPs. Gilbert and kirby kept getting mentioned but Castillo and Ray make way more sense for them to move. Obviously, they wouldn't get as much of a return, but would help them more.
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Post by theburn on Jan 1, 2024 17:11:21 GMT -5
The trick is that it seems like the Red Sox are in cost cutting mode too. If they're willing to take on Castillo's contract (upwards of $70+ mil. over three years, incl. the vesting option) AND give up assets to get him then I don't know why they wouldn't just sign Montgomery/Imanaga and be done with it.
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Post by chaimtime on Jan 1, 2024 19:07:08 GMT -5
The trick is that it seems like the Red Sox are in cost cutting mode too. If they're willing to take on Castillo's contract (upwards of $70+ mil. over three years, incl. the vesting option) AND give up assets to get him then I don't know why they wouldn't just sign Montgomery/Imanaga and be done with it. because Castillo is better than both and cheaper than at least Montgomery will be. I think the current economics of baseball have made cash more precious than ever, so I’m fine giving up assets to more optimally fill that roster/contract slot.
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Post by soxaddict on Jan 3, 2024 9:52:05 GMT -5
The trick is that it seems like the Red Sox are in cost cutting mode too. If they're willing to take on Castillo's contract (upwards of $70+ mil. over three years, incl. the vesting option) AND give up assets to get him then I don't know why they wouldn't just sign Montgomery/Imanaga and be done with it. because Castillo is better than both and cheaper than at least Montgomery will be. I think the current economics of baseball have made cash more precious than ever, so I’m fine giving up assets to more optimally fill that roster/contract slot. I agree. If the Ms do make Castilo available, should be able to get him without giving up Mayer, Anthony or Teel. He’s an ace and already signed thru 2027 at a much cheaper rate than Monty.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 3, 2024 11:49:27 GMT -5
because Castillo is better than both and cheaper than at least Montgomery will be. I think the current economics of baseball have made cash more precious than ever, so I’m fine giving up assets to more optimally fill that roster/contract slot. I agree. If the Ms do make Castilo available, should be able to get him without giving up Mayer, Anthony or Teel. He’s an ace and already signed thru 2027 at a much cheaper rate than Monty. Isn't that an argument why they would have to give up some of the top 3 prospects?
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 3, 2024 11:58:43 GMT -5
After what the M's gave up for Castillo I have a hard time seeing them not asking for a top 20 MLB prospect back in return for him.
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Post by chaimtime on Jan 3, 2024 12:28:54 GMT -5
After what the M's gave up for Castillo I have a hard time seeing them not asking for a top 20 MLB prospect back in return for him. I don’t think Duran alone gets it done, but I highly doubt it takes a top-20 prospect. They gave up one of those to get him when he was cheap and 29. Now he’s 31 and owed $24 million/year until he’s 36. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect a similar return at this point. Given that the only reason he’d be available at all is because they need to clear payroll, I don’t think they’d hold out for one, either. And given where their roster is at, I think a plug-and-play outfielder like Duran makes more sense for them than a Mayer—they have the pitching to compete now, and outside of J-Rod their outfield group is really atrocious.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 3, 2024 12:48:01 GMT -5
After what the M's gave up for Castillo I have a hard time seeing them not asking for a top 20 MLB prospect back in return for him. I don’t think Duran alone gets it done, but I highly doubt it takes a top-20 prospect. They gave up one of those to get him when he was cheap and 29. Now he’s 31 and owed $24 million/year until he’s 36. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect a similar return at this point. Given that the only reason he’d be available at all is because they need to clear payroll, I don’t think they’d hold out for one, either. And given where their roster is at, I think a plug-and-play outfielder like Duran makes more sense for them than a Mayer—they have the pitching to compete now, and outside of J-Rod their outfield group is really atrocious. If my recall is correct they acquired him with about 1.5 years of service time left before FA since he was a deadline acquistion. He has three years left @ what appears to be $22.75M a year which is rather cheap for a player of his caliber, he also has a vesting option for $25M for 2028 if he pitches 180 innings in 2027 or they get a 5M team option if he misses 130+ days from 2025-2027 due to a UCL injury. His contract is a bargain for a pitcher his caliber in my eyes and he's now more controlled than when they dealt for him albeit for more money. I'm just having a hard time seeing them not asking for something close to what they dealt for him. Perhaps I am way off though, I have a hard time gauging trade values. Seems like more often than not I'm left saying whoa overpay or whoa that was cheap on trades. I do agree they'd more than likely want ML caliber players right now which is why I feel like any deal for Castillo probably starts with Casas+.
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Post by adamgregory on Jan 3, 2024 12:58:50 GMT -5
Love Castillo, but I can’t imagine Seattle trading him for anything less than the farm, I think he’s one of the best 6-8 pitchers in baseball.
(And didn’t Seattle just trade Kelenic? Maybe there is an argument that they want to keep costs down, but, if trying to contend, trading Castillo feels silly.)
As an aside, I’m generally skeptical of buying when a guy is at the top of his game, as it leaves no room for appreciation.
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Post by chaimtime on Jan 3, 2024 15:58:13 GMT -5
I don’t think Duran alone gets it done, but I highly doubt it takes a top-20 prospect. They gave up one of those to get him when he was cheap and 29. Now he’s 31 and owed $24 million/year until he’s 36. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect a similar return at this point. Given that the only reason he’d be available at all is because they need to clear payroll, I don’t think they’d hold out for one, either. And given where their roster is at, I think a plug-and-play outfielder like Duran makes more sense for them than a Mayer—they have the pitching to compete now, and outside of J-Rod their outfield group is really atrocious. If my recall is correct they acquired him with about 1.5 years of service time left before FA since he was a deadline acquistion. He has three years left @ what appears to be $22.75M a year which is rather cheap for a player of his caliber, he also has a vesting option for $25M for 2028 if he pitches 180 innings in 2027 or they get a 5M team option if he misses 130+ days from 2025-2027 due to a UCL injury. His contract is a bargain for a pitcher his caliber in my eyes and he's now more controlled than when they dealt for him albeit for more money. I'm just having a hard time seeing them not asking for something close to what they dealt for him. Perhaps I am way off though, I have a hard time gauging trade values. Seems like more often than not I'm left saying whoa overpay or whoa that was cheap on trades. I do agree they'd more than likely want ML caliber players right now which is why I feel like any deal for Castillo probably starts with Casas+. Its a little higher than that bc his 2023 salary was reduced and his signing bonus (1.4m/yr) is getting tacked on to his salary, so the AAV is about 25. I think the option actually already vested, too. Very reasonable, but it’s still a top-10 starter salary by AAV. He’s not cheap, it’s not clear how many teams would be able to take his full contract on. Hell, it’s not even clear that the Red Sox could! I’m sure they’d rather give up Robbie Ray, but they’re not getting off that contract without giving something up. If they really need salary relief, there are worse ways to get it than trading their highest-paid pitcher for a long-term starter or two at positions of need. I do think the fact that he’s already on the wrong side of 30 is getting glossed over a little. He’s a good pitcher and a guy any team would be happy with atop their rotation, but we’re not talking about prime Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander here. I don’t think it’s fair to expect him to be a top of the rotation guy in his mid-30s. That does have a real impact on trade value. I think it ultimately comes down to their Duran eval. They need outfielders and a second baseman badly, but they have Ty France for cheap for a couple more years at first, so you’d think they’d prefer an outfielder in a vacuum. If they buy Duran they would probably go for a Duran/Yorke/lottery ticket package. If they don’t then it’s probably not a match unless they’re really into Rafaela or Abreu.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 3, 2024 17:48:14 GMT -5
If my recall is correct they acquired him with about 1.5 years of service time left before FA since he was a deadline acquistion. He has three years left @ what appears to be $22.75M a year which is rather cheap for a player of his caliber, he also has a vesting option for $25M for 2028 if he pitches 180 innings in 2027 or they get a 5M team option if he misses 130+ days from 2025-2027 due to a UCL injury. His contract is a bargain for a pitcher his caliber in my eyes and he's now more controlled than when they dealt for him albeit for more money. I'm just having a hard time seeing them not asking for something close to what they dealt for him. Perhaps I am way off though, I have a hard time gauging trade values. Seems like more often than not I'm left saying whoa overpay or whoa that was cheap on trades. I do agree they'd more than likely want ML caliber players right now which is why I feel like any deal for Castillo probably starts with Casas+. Its a little higher than that bc his 2023 salary was reduced and his signing bonus (1.4m/yr) is getting tacked on to his salary, so the AAV is about 25. I think the option actually already vested, too. Very reasonable, but it’s still a top-10 starter salary by AAV. He’s not cheap, it’s not clear how many teams would be able to take his full contract on. Hell, it’s not even clear that the Red Sox could! I’m sure they’d rather give up Robbie Ray, but they’re not getting off that contract without giving something up. If they really need salary relief, there are worse ways to get it than trading their highest-paid pitcher for a long-term starter or two at positions of need. I do think the fact that he’s already on the wrong side of 30 is getting glossed over a little. He’s a good pitcher and a guy any team would be happy with atop their rotation, but we’re not talking about prime Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander here. I don’t think it’s fair to expect him to be a top of the rotation guy in his mid-30s. That does have a real impact on trade value. I think it ultimately comes down to their Duran eval. They need outfielders and a second baseman badly, but they have Ty France for cheap for a couple more years at first, so you’d think they’d prefer an outfielder in a vacuum. If they buy Duran they would probably go for a Duran/Yorke/lottery ticket package. If they don’t then it’s probably not a match unless they’re really into Rafaela or Abreu. Castillo is solid #2 type pitcher and there are a lot of teams seeking quality pitching. Personally I dont think Duran plus gets them Castillo, but when you have other teams in the mix looking for quality pitching and interested in trading for him the quality of the return package rises among competitors. I would think Castillo's services would probably fetch a prospect toward the top of a team's prospect ranking.
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Post by chaimtime on Jan 3, 2024 18:35:52 GMT -5
Its a little higher than that bc his 2023 salary was reduced and his signing bonus (1.4m/yr) is getting tacked on to his salary, so the AAV is about 25. I think the option actually already vested, too. Very reasonable, but it’s still a top-10 starter salary by AAV. He’s not cheap, it’s not clear how many teams would be able to take his full contract on. Hell, it’s not even clear that the Red Sox could! I’m sure they’d rather give up Robbie Ray, but they’re not getting off that contract without giving something up. If they really need salary relief, there are worse ways to get it than trading their highest-paid pitcher for a long-term starter or two at positions of need. I do think the fact that he’s already on the wrong side of 30 is getting glossed over a little. He’s a good pitcher and a guy any team would be happy with atop their rotation, but we’re not talking about prime Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander here. I don’t think it’s fair to expect him to be a top of the rotation guy in his mid-30s. That does have a real impact on trade value. I think it ultimately comes down to their Duran eval. They need outfielders and a second baseman badly, but they have Ty France for cheap for a couple more years at first, so you’d think they’d prefer an outfielder in a vacuum. If they buy Duran they would probably go for a Duran/Yorke/lottery ticket package. If they don’t then it’s probably not a match unless they’re really into Rafaela or Abreu. Castillo is solid #2 type pitcher and there are a lot of teams seeking quality pitching. Personally I dont think Duran plus gets them Castillo, but when you have other teams in the mix looking for quality pitching and interested in trading for him the quality of the return package rises among competitors. I would think Castillo's services would probably fetch a prospect toward the top of a team's prospect ranking. I don’t disagree. But at the end of the day, that’s a number 2—an honest-to-god number 2, but a number 2 nonetheless—making a few million dollars per year less than he’d get on the market. That has plenty of value, but I don’t think it’s anywhere close to what Kirby and Gilbert would cost. I also think Jarren Duran and Nick Yorke would be near the top of most teams’ lists of prospects/controllable young players. I don’t think we as a fanbase really give Duran enough respect in trade hypotheticals, he was probably the best player on the team last year. And I sort of agree on contenders looking to top that package, but I think that’s easier said than done for a lot of them. I don’t think the Yankees could beat that deal, at least not without giving up Dominguez. I don’t think the Braves could beat that deal, and it doesn’t seem like they could afford it anyway. I don’t think the Dodgers would want to, given the investment they’ve already made in their rotation. Baltimore could beat it, and probably pretty easily, but they’re not taking on that contract. Tampa isn’t taking on that contract. Houston is apparently pushing up against their budget limit, too. Maybe the Phillies try to build something around Johan Rojas, but he has even more question marks than Duran and their best trade chips otherwise are all pitchers—does Seattle go for that? Does Dombrowski go for another older pitcher on a big contract? I’m not so sure. That’s what has me so intrigued about the deal. It seems like it would be hard for a team that could take on the whole contract to offer a better package than the Red Sox could even without Casas/Mayer/Anthony/Teel. The combination of financial and prospect cost seems right in the Red Sox’ wheelhouse. And it just so happens that Duran and Yorke fill two huge organizational needs for the Mariners. At the end of the day whether or not something like this could work comes down to what the Mariners think of Duran. If they buy him as a 2.5-3 win guy going forward, they’d probably jump at that package. If they see him as more of a fourth outfielder/fringe regular type, then there’s probably not a fit. And of course, if Seattle isn’t actually looking to clear out a big chunk of payroll, it’s all moot because Castillo wouldn’t be available for anything other than a prohibitive cost.
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Post by soxaddict on Jan 3, 2024 23:25:56 GMT -5
I agree. If the Ms do make Castilo available, should be able to get him without giving up Mayer, Anthony or Teel. He’s an ace and already signed thru 2027 at a much cheaper rate than Monty. Isn't that an argument why they would have to give up some of the top 3 prospects? He's still owed roughly $100M over the next 4 seasons. And just judging by the salary dump moves they've already made. Suarez to the DBacks for peanuts and gave the Braves Kelenic to take the White and Gonzales contracts. If Mayer, Anthony or Teel is required, I'm no longer interested. I personally don't think the Sox are in a position to deal any of the three, but if they did, it should be a Logan Gilbert or Jesus Luzardo type move. No way am I dealing any of those guys for a 31 year old, owed $100M.
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