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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jun 27, 2024 19:21:20 GMT -5
The 6/27/2024 Red Sox rotation and bullpen are :
Houck Crawford Pivetta Winckowski Bello / Criswell —————————- Jansen Martin Slaten Bernardino Kelly Weissert Hill Anderson
It looks like a pretty good pitching staff. Obviously, a starter and reliever at the deadline would be nice additions!
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Post by brendan98 on Jun 28, 2024 19:39:33 GMT -5
I think the Andrew Bailey star has come crashing back down to earth! Crawford, Bello and Pivetta all pitching worse than expected. Houck’s performance is the outlier at this point.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 29, 2024 6:51:30 GMT -5
Seems like they got like a one month Bailey bonus at the beginning of the year where all the starters changed their approach and it threw other teams off until everyone adjusted. Now every pitcher exccept Houck is back to their baseline.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jun 29, 2024 7:05:29 GMT -5
This is less a rotation thing than a general pitching thing, but only four pitchers who have thrown a pitch for the Red Sox (including relief ace Pablo Reyes) currently have recorded an ERA over 4.00. Those 4 are: Chase Anderson - used for garbage time only Joe Jacques - DFA'd, and was claimed by Arizona Joely Rodriguez - DFA'd and outrighted to Worcester. Is now hurt Isaiah Campbell - on the injured list In comparison, last year the Sox only had 5 pitchers with more than like 20 innings who had under a 4.00 ERA: Martin, Winckowski, Bernardino, Jansen, Schreiber. Wild. Updating this a month and a half later: the pitchers with ERA’s over 4.00 include - Criswell, Chase Anderson, Pivetta, Brad Keller, Bello, Campbell. Although we’ve seen regression, most of the staff is still getting good results. It can’t be overstated the multitude of pitchers the last few years who were bad, and they’ve really cut that down to a small number. Think of all the random relievers who would come in last year and just constantly blow up. Even a garbage time guy like Anderson has been sorta-kinda okay, compared to say a Corey Kluber. Of course, the issue is that two of them who HAVE been really bad are starters in Bello & Pivetta coming off the injured list.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 29, 2024 7:49:41 GMT -5
Justice for Dave Bush
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Post by pappyman99 on Jun 29, 2024 8:06:59 GMT -5
Seems like they got like a one month Bailey bonus at the beginning of the year where all the starters changed their approach and it threw other teams off until everyone adjusted. Now every pitcher exccept Houck is back to their baseline. I’d say yes and no. I think Crawford is overall better I think Bello really needs to change his approach. Needs way more strategy and command. Way too many 0-2 or 1-2 counts where he just thinks his stuff is too good and tries to challenge with a fastball Side note if we don’t go after Soto, I’d love Fried in FA, dominant ground ball rates make him a much safer bet
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 29, 2024 8:16:53 GMT -5
Seems like they got like a one month Bailey bonus at the beginning of the year where all the starters changed their approach and it threw other teams off until everyone adjusted. Now every pitcher exccept Houck is back to their baseline. I’d say yes and no. I think Crawford is overall better I think Bello really needs to change his approach. Needs way more strategy and command. Way too many 0-2 or 1-2 counts where he just thinks his stuff is too good and tries to challenge with a fastball Side note if we don’t go after Soto, I’d love Fried in FA, dominant ground ball rates make him a much safer bet Crawford has a worse xERA and FIP, he’s walking more guys and striking out less and his xwOBA on contact against is much worse. And all that is factoring in his dominant start to the year. Though he is pitching more deeply into starts this year that doesn’t actually explain the regression because it’s the first time through the order where he’s getting hit much harder this year.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 29, 2024 8:30:22 GMT -5
Seems like they got like a one month Bailey bonus at the beginning of the year where all the starters changed their approach and it threw other teams off until everyone adjusted. Now every pitcher exccept Houck is back to their baseline. I’d say yes and no. I think Crawford is overall better I think Bello really needs to change his approach. Needs way more strategy and command. Way too many 0-2 or 1-2 counts where he just thinks his stuff is too good and tries to challenge with a fastball Side note if we don’t go after Soto, I’d love Fried in FA, dominant ground ball rates make him a much safer bet Crawford peaked at #16 in the prospect rankings so the fact that he has established himself as a rotation mainstay is a huge success. But when did that success happen? Post all-star break last season, he had an ERA/FIP/xFIP of 3.97/3.52/4.47 with a K/9 over 10 and BB/9 barely over 3 in 68 IP. This season: 3.54/4.00/4.04 with similar K/BB rates.
So he's been establish for a full calendar year now. But within that year his weakest stretch has come over the last month and a half: 5.29/5.14/4.05. The BB rate, K rate, and xFIP are all consistent with what he's been since mid-2023 so I think it's fair to say he's been the same guy throughout this period. But I don't see any way to read the numbers and conclude he's taken a leap this season rather than last.
On Fried: yes, ride or die on him or Burnes (who is younger than Fried by 9 months), or I guess Sasaki though that's more out of their hands. It turns out, though Bailey may be good at his job, he cannot actually turn 5 guys into aces by his sheer genius (who knew!) so they need to add a front-line starter somehow.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jun 29, 2024 9:26:08 GMT -5
Per Brian Barrett:
Sox Starters
Start of season - May 15th
219.2 innings
2.54 ERA - 1st 1.06 WHIP - 3rd .217 OBA - 4th 0.90 HR/9 - 6th
May 16th - today
198.2 innings
4.94 ERA - 26th 1.29 WHIP - 18th .246 OBA - 17th 1.22 HR/9 - 15th
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 16, 2024 8:31:15 GMT -5
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 16, 2024 9:09:43 GMT -5
Per Brian Barrett: Sox Starters Start of season - May 15th 219.2 innings 2.54 ERA - 1st 1.06 WHIP - 3rd .217 OBA - 4th 0.90 HR/9 - 6th May 16th - today 198.2 innings 4.94 ERA - 26th 1.29 WHIP - 18th .246 OBA - 17th 1.22 HR/9 - 15th We could have guessed a regression, and honestly middle of the pack would still be a breath of fresh air, it's just the ERA that stands out, they're 8th in FIP so I wonder how much of that is due to bad defense starting to hurt the pitching. People talk about adding a pitcher, well I agree, but adding a RHB that can play good defense up the middle seems like a really good get too.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 16, 2024 9:23:19 GMT -5
Looks like Kutter's good again. Plus, he's a MFY killer. Half of this board has been trying to send him to the bullpen or trade him for years. I'm glad the FO and coaching staff have stuck with him.
Seems like he benefitted from that rain out against the Jays, although he prepared and warmed up for it and began the game like normal. Still, he didn't have to get up and down 5 or 6 times or throw another 75-80 pitches. Almost like throwing a bullpen instead of a full-blown start. Now another few extra days with the AS break, I'm looking for a strong finish and some playoff heroics.
LFG!
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Post by trotman on Jul 16, 2024 9:46:21 GMT -5
Looks like Kutter's good again. Plus, he's a MFY killer. Half of this board has been trying to send him to the bullpen or trade him for years. I'm glad the FO and coaching staff have stuck with him. Seems like he benefitted from that rain out against the Jays, although he prepared and warmed up for it and began the game like normal. Still, he didn't have to get up and down 5 or 6 times or throw another 75-80 pitches. Almost like throwing a bullpen instead of a full-blown start. Now another few extra days with the AS break, I'm looking for a strong finish and some playoff heroics. LFG! Kutter definitely benefits from extra rest. With all the other starters equaling or getting close to last years IP it makes it all the more important to add an additional arm that can continue to give guys like Houck and Kutter rest.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 16, 2024 10:25:44 GMT -5
Worcester starter stats (via SoxProspects.com):
Dick Fitts: 73.2 innings, 4.76 ERA, 71 k's, 29 BB, 11 HR - 1.41 WHIP (4.67 xERA)
Jason Alexander: 81.1 innings, 3.98 ERA, 69 k's, 28 BB, 7 HR - 1.29 WHIP (3.65 xERA)
Justin Hagenman: 50.2 innings, 5.51 ERA, 57 k's, 21 BB, 16 HR - 1.24 WHIP (5.13 xERA)
Grant Gambell (DEV LIST): 72.2 innings, 4.58 ERA, 57 K's, 31 BB, 6 HR - 1.53 WHIP (4.63 xERA)
Penrod (INJ): 8 innings (over two starts), 3 ER, 9 hits, 8 k's, 7 BB, 0 HR
Is there is any expectation to get positive contributions at the major league level from any of the high minors starting depth beyond your random "spot start on a rainout doubleheader in late August" kinda thing?
Obviously if a worst case scenario happens where like Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford both get kidnapped and held for ransom tomorrow, you're screwed regardless. In the medium case scenario where a couple guys get mildly banged up, who is it you turn to beyond Criswell, Winckowski, whoever they acquire at the deadline, and resorting to bullpen games?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 16, 2024 11:30:20 GMT -5
Worcester starter stats (via SoxProspects.com): Dick Fitts: 73.2 innings, 4.76 ERA, 71 k's, 29 BB, 11 HR - 1.41 WHIP (4.67 xERA) Jason Alexander: 81.1 innings, 3.98 ERA, 69 k's, 28 BB, 7 HR - 1.29 WHIP (3.65 xERA) Justin Hagenman: 50.2 innings, 5.51 ERA, 57 k's, 21 BB, 16 HR - 1.24 WHIP (5.13 xERA) Grant Gambell (DEV LIST): 72.2 innings, 4.58 ERA, 57 K's, 31 BB, 6 HR - 1.53 WHIP (4.63 xERA) Penrod (INJ): 8 innings (over two starts), 3 ER, 9 hits, 8 k's, 7 BB, 0 HR Is there is any expectation to get positive contributions at the major league level from any of the high minors starting depth beyond your random "spot start on a rainout doubleheader in late August" kinda thing? Obviously if a worst case scenario happens where like Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford both get kidnapped and held for ransom tomorrow, you're screwed regardless. In the medium case scenario where a couple guys get mildly banged up, who is it you turn to beyond Criswell, Winckowski, whoever they acquire at the deadline, and resorting to bullpen games? Alexander looks like the next man up, just from the numbers. I know nothing else about him. I’m ready to see if he can take Winck’s place if there aren’t any obvious warts that are hidden from JA’s surface numbers. Hagenman’s WHIP is promising but the HRs are a red flag.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 16, 2024 11:45:20 GMT -5
Worcester starter stats (via SoxProspects.com): Dick Fitts: 73.2 innings, 4.76 ERA, 71 k's, 29 BB, 11 HR - 1.41 WHIP (4.67 xERA) Jason Alexander: 81.1 innings, 3.98 ERA, 69 k's, 28 BB, 7 HR - 1.29 WHIP (3.65 xERA) Justin Hagenman: 50.2 innings, 5.51 ERA, 57 k's, 21 BB, 16 HR - 1.24 WHIP (5.13 xERA) Grant Gambell (DEV LIST): 72.2 innings, 4.58 ERA, 57 K's, 31 BB, 6 HR - 1.53 WHIP (4.63 xERA) Penrod (INJ): 8 innings (over two starts), 3 ER, 9 hits, 8 k's, 7 BB, 0 HR Is there is any expectation to get positive contributions at the major league level from any of the high minors starting depth beyond your random "spot start on a rainout doubleheader in late August" kinda thing? Obviously if a worst case scenario happens where like Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford both get kidnapped and held for ransom tomorrow, you're screwed regardless. In the medium case scenario where a couple guys get mildly banged up, who is it you turn to beyond Criswell, Winckowski, whoever they acquire at the deadline, and resorting to bullpen games? Alexander looks like the next man up, just from the numbers. I know nothing else about him. I’m ready to see if he can take Winck’s place if there aren’t any obvious warts that are hidden from JA’s surface numbers. Hagenman’s WHIP is promising but the HRs are a red flag. Winckowski had much better AAA stats than Alexander does fwiw
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 16, 2024 12:09:08 GMT -5
So let's map this out. There's 67 games left (about 13 and a half turns through the rotation.) Let's be morose for a sec and pretend that Houck, Crawford, Pivetta, Bello and "STARTER ACQUISITION TBD" each miss a combined average of 3 starts for whatever reason (or the equivalent of one guy missing nearly the rest of the year). How does this work out:
# of Games Started Houck: 10 Crawford: 10 Pivetta: 10 Bello: 10 "MYSTERY!": 10
TOTAL: 50
There'd be 17 starts left to be filled by Criswell, Winckowski, and bullpen games/AAA depth. Coop and Winck have actually combined for about that number of starts thus far this season anyway so... I think that's enough? Maybe? (I recognize the caveats that any trade acquisition wouldn't pitch until after August 1st anyway, and you are unlikely to have such an even distribution of missed time for the starters.)
This might be just my Kyle Barraclough/September 2011 PTSD kicking in.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 16, 2024 16:09:40 GMT -5
Alexander looks like the next man up, just from the numbers. I know nothing else about him. I’m ready to see if he can take Winck’s place if there aren’t any obvious warts that are hidden from JA’s surface numbers. Hagenman’s WHIP is promising but the HRs are a red flag. Winckowski had much better AAA stats than Alexander does fwiw True, but didn’t AC say they were moving Winck to the bullpen for the rest of the season? If I’m remembering that right, I think Alexander would slot behind Criswell in the rotation depth chart.
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Post by wvusox on Jul 19, 2024 12:06:54 GMT -5
According to stats on MLB.com, the Sox have had (15) pitchers qualified for the ERA leaderboard at the All-Star break over the past (10) seasons.
Of those 15, Tanner Houck & Kutter Crawford have two of the top 3 ERA's, as only Chris Sale's 2017 season compares:
01. 2024 2.54 Tanner Houck, 8-6 02. 2017 2.75 Chris Sale, 11-4 03. 2024 3.04 Kutter Crawford, 6-7 04. 2017 3.60 Drew Pomeranz, 9-4 05. 2016 3.66 Rick Porcello, 11-2 06. 2021 3.66 Nathan Eovaldi, 9-5 07. 2018 4.13 Rick Porcello, 11-4 08. 2016 4.34 David Price, 9-6 09. 2018 4.42 David Price, 10-6 10. 2022 4.50 Nick Pivetta, 8-7 11. 2019 4.65 Eduardo Rodriguez, 9-4 12. 2017 4.75 Rick Porcello, 4-11 13. 2015 4.80 Wade Miley, 8-8 14. 2019 5.33 Rick Porcello, 6-7 15. 2015 5.90 Rick Porcello, 5-9
Couple of other fun facts:
* Eduardo Rodriguez is the only other homegrown Sox pitcher qualified at the break in the past decade
* According to salaries found on SoxProsects.com, Houck & Crawford COMBINED will make less than $2 million this season
* According to salaries found on BaseballReference.com. the remaining (13) pitching seasons accounted for a combined $199.09 million in salary!
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 26, 2024 13:02:50 GMT -5
Red Sox rotation options by xERA (via Baseball Savant) so far this season:
Cooper Criswell - 3.54 Nick Pivetta - 3.70 Tanner Houck - 3.80 Kutter Crawford - 3.83 Brayan Bello - 4.67 James Paxton - 4.83
🤷♂️
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 27, 2024 5:19:53 GMT -5
According to stats on MLB.com, the Sox have had (15) pitchers qualified for the ERA leaderboard at the All-Star break over the past (10) seasons. Of those 15, Tanner Houck & Kutter Crawford have two of the top 3 ERA's, as only Chris Sale's 2017 season compares: 01. 2024 2.54 Tanner Houck, 8-6 02. 2017 2.75 Chris Sale, 11-4 03. 2024 3.04 Kutter Crawford, 6-7 04. 2017 3.60 Drew Pomeranz, 9-4 05. 2016 3.66 Rick Porcello, 11-2 06. 2021 3.66 Nathan Eovaldi, 9-5 07. 2018 4.13 Rick Porcello, 11-4 08. 2016 4.34 David Price, 9-6 09. 2018 4.42 David Price, 10-6 10. 2022 4.50 Nick Pivetta, 8-7 11. 2019 4.65 Eduardo Rodriguez, 9-4 12. 2017 4.75 Rick Porcello, 4-11 13. 2015 4.80 Wade Miley, 8-8 14. 2019 5.33 Rick Porcello, 6-7 15. 2015 5.90 Rick Porcello, 5-9 Couple of other fun facts: * Eduardo Rodriguez is the only other homegrown Sox pitcher qualified at the break in the past decade * According to salaries found on SoxProsects.com, Houck & Crawford COMBINED will make less than $2 million this season * According to salaries found on BaseballReference.com. the remaining (13) pitching seasons accounted for a combined $199.09 million in salary! Eduardo Rodriguez of course pitched 4 1/2 seasons in the minors with Baltimore before we acquired him in trade.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 27, 2024 6:02:45 GMT -5
According to stats on MLB.com, the Sox have had (15) pitchers qualified for the ERA leaderboard at the All-Star break over the past (10) seasons. Of those 15, Tanner Houck & Kutter Crawford have two of the top 3 ERA's, as only Chris Sale's 2017 season compares: 01. 2024 2.54 Tanner Houck, 8-6 02. 2017 2.75 Chris Sale, 11-4 03. 2024 3.04 Kutter Crawford, 6-7 04. 2017 3.60 Drew Pomeranz, 9-4 05. 2016 3.66 Rick Porcello, 11-2 06. 2021 3.66 Nathan Eovaldi, 9-5 07. 2018 4.13 Rick Porcello, 11-4 08. 2016 4.34 David Price, 9-6 09. 2018 4.42 David Price, 10-6 10. 2022 4.50 Nick Pivetta, 8-7 11. 2019 4.65 Eduardo Rodriguez, 9-4 12. 2017 4.75 Rick Porcello, 4-11 13. 2015 4.80 Wade Miley, 8-8 14. 2019 5.33 Rick Porcello, 6-7 15. 2015 5.90 Rick Porcello, 5-9 Couple of other fun facts: * Eduardo Rodriguez is the only other homegrown Sox pitcher qualified at the break in the past decade * According to salaries found on SoxProsects.com, Houck & Crawford COMBINED will make less than $2 million this season * According to salaries found on BaseballReference.com. the remaining (13) pitching seasons accounted for a combined $199.09 million in salary! Porcello was Mr. Consistency. He just went out there every year and made every start for five straight years.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 30, 2024 17:59:54 GMT -5
Andrew Bailey in January:
“If our industry doesn’t view our pitching staff individually at higher tiers, I just didn’t do my job. […] I want to be viewed in the upper echelon of the league as a pitching staff. I would also say that they weren’t too far off last year. There’s a lot of talent here already. You can set guys up in certain ways to succeed. [I’m] expecting the staff to take steps forward.”
The Sox banked on the group they have including Bello, Crawford, Houck, and Pivetta over the off-season. And aside from a sprinkling of Big Maple and Priester at the deadline, their choice is clearly to “dance with the ones that brought you” - for better or for worse
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Aug 21, 2024 9:33:05 GMT -5
Rotation Stats (as of 8/21)
Houck - 152.2 innings, 3.01 ERA
Crawford - 143.1 innings, 4.21 ERA
Pivetta - 105.1 innings, 4.70 ERA
Bello - 123.2 innings, 4.80 ERA
Might legit be the complete opposite order of starter ERA than expected back in February!
For as much as Houck and Crawford have regressed over the middle of the year (although they have been alot better the last few times out), if you told me before the year that the above was going to be their whole season stat-line for 2024 for those two guys, I think I'd have been pretty happy. And they still have over a month to go
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 21, 2024 18:15:58 GMT -5
Innings are way up there for Crawford and Houck so for this year only I can understand the mega fatigue and fall in production now
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