Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster

[scottysmalls]

Jan 26, 2024 16:29:40 GMT -5 puzzler said:

Jan 26, 2024 15:52:54 GMT -5 scottysmalls said:

Yet Drohan was ranked 15th while Gambrell/Van Belle/Walter were ranked far lower than that. This site's opinion seemed to be that he was clearly a better prospect than those guys. 

And less than a year prior to that he was 26th as basically a 24 year old.  He obviously had a fantastic spring and early summer...but going 26 to 13 to 6 to 15; he got a huge bump from one camp and 6 starts. I've seen him as high as 17 in a worse ranked farm system (White Sox) with almost 10 other arms ahead of him. No disrespect to his player evaluations or his rankings on this site (which is the best, sincerely), but I'm putting zero stock into his ranking alone. Mata was as high as 2 and is now 28. 

EDIT: Brandon Walter was 9 in April of 2023 and less than a year later is 32. 

Of course players drop in the rankings sometimes. But as of the latest data we have (SP November 2023), Drohan was more well regarded as a prospect than the others you're comparing him to (and not just on SP but seemingly universally by prospect evaluators).

There's a very reasonable question of if they should have chosen him over one of Walter/Criswell/Jacques/Weiss/Kelly/Mata/Castillo/Weissert. Some of those guys I'd rather have than Drohan, some not. We'll see if the Red Sox were right not to fret it.

[chaimtime]

Jan 26, 2024 16:40:02 GMT -5 scottysmalls said:

Jan 26, 2024 16:29:40 GMT -5 puzzler said:

And less than a year prior to that he was 26th as basically a 24 year old.  He obviously had a fantastic spring and early summer...but going 26 to 13 to 6 to 15; he got a huge bump from one camp and 6 starts. I've seen him as high as 17 in a worse ranked farm system (White Sox) with almost 10 other arms ahead of him. No disrespect to his player evaluations or his rankings on this site (which is the best, sincerely), but I'm putting zero stock into his ranking alone. Mata was as high as 2 and is now 28. 

EDIT: Brandon Walter was 9 in April of 2023 and less than a year later is 32. 

Of course players drop in the rankings sometimes. But as of the latest data we have (SP November 2023), Drohan was more well regarded as a prospect than the others you're comparing him to (and not just on SP but seemingly universally by prospect evaluators).

There's a very reasonable question of if they should have chosen him over one of Walter/Criswell/Jacques/Weiss/Kelly/Mata/Castillo/Weissert. Some of those guys I'd rather have than Drohan, some not. We'll see if the Red Sox were right not to fret it.

For what it’s worth, Brandon Walter was 11th as recently as July of last year. Things change quickly.

My guess is, in the hypothetical world where he got protected, if Drohan came to spring training sitting 93-94 with that hard cutter/slider deal that made him so effective, he’d probably jump back up the rankings. But if he was sitting more 90-91 and still struggling to locate, he’d tumble down pretty quickly.

Like you said, only time will tell, but I think basically all of those guys have shown a higher floor than Drohan. There’s still a very real chance he ends up as nothing more than org filler.

[pappyman99]

Jeter downs should still be here because he was ranked high at a moment in time here …..


Not sure why people keep ignoring that Drohan had a mere 34 innings of success in his minor league career

I’m sure we will be okay without him. This is a non event in regards to transactions this offseason

I’d get it if he was 22, and had more background of success but he is 25 and was absolute trash last year in 90 innings of pitching

[oldfaithful2019]

Casas
Grissom
Story
Raffy
Duran
O'Niell
Abreu
Yoshida
Wong

Starting lineup that could be pretty exciting and score lots of runs. A couple question marks defensively up the middle but hopefully Duran and Grissom put those questions to rest.

Reyes
Refsnyder
McGuire
Dalbec or Valdez

Very weak bench.

Bello
Pivetta
Giolito
Crawford
Houk

A rotation that because of the 3 internal prospects I'll root real hard for, could end up underwhelming.

Whitlock
Winkowski
Slaten
Bernardino
Campbell
Martin
Jansen
Mata
Shrieber
Kelly
Murphy

Whitlock needs to embrace a role this season and prove that 2021 was not an one time ooccurrence. Bullpen depth looks very good at this point.

This team just is not likely to compete for post season without every upside possibility coming to be and/or some unexpected additions.

[gerry]

I read somewhere, maybe here, the possibility of O’Neill becoming that RHB to share DH/LF with Masa, which puts Rafaella in CF. I can see the big defensive upgrade but the offense could/might suffer. But also might, (though with about 20 fewer HR and a lot of K’s minus Soler) provide a ton more xbh from Duran, Rafaella, Grissom, O’Neill, Abreu to still be strong enough. I still hope for a Duran, Grissom, Devers, Casas 1-4 out of all this. If O’Neill, Yoshida, Story, Rafaella are #5-8 this could still be a good offense.

[oldfaithful2019]

Jan 27, 2024 21:20:50 GMT -5 gerry said:

I read somewhere, maybe here, the possibility of O’Neill becoming that RHB to share DH/LF with Masa, which puts Rafaella in CF. I can see the big defensive upgrade but the offense could/might suffer. But also might, (though with about 20 fewer HR and lotsa K’s minus Soler) provide a ton more xbh from Duran, Rafaella, Grissom, O’Neill, Abreu to still be strong enough. I still hope for a Duran, Grissom, Devers, Casas 1-4 out of all this. If O’Neill, Yoshida, Story, Rafaella are #5-8 this could still be a good offense.

I'd love to see Rafaella in the mix at the expense of Refsnyder but that would require a Refsnyder trade. I don't think they would just cut him and be stuck with his salary minus ML minimum. 

[larrycook]

Jan 27, 2024 20:03:55 GMT -5 oldfaithful2019 said:

Whitlock
Winkowski
Slaten
Bernardino
Campbell
Martin
Jansen
Mata
Shrieber
Kelly
Murphy

Whitlock needs to embrace a role this season and prove that 2021 was not an one time ooccurrence. Bullpen depth looks very good at this point.

This team just is not likely to compete for post season without every upside possibility coming to be and/or some unexpected additions.

I think Shrieber is capable of a strong year in 2024 and might earn more innings in high pressure situations.

[keninten]

Jan 27, 2024 21:36:32 GMT -5 oldfaithful2019 said:

Jan 27, 2024 21:20:50 GMT -5 gerry said:

I read somewhere, maybe here, the possibility of O’Neill becoming that RHB to share DH/LF with Masa, which puts Rafaella in CF. I can see the big defensive upgrade but the offense could/might suffer. But also might, (though with about 20 fewer HR and lotsa K’s minus Soler) provide a ton more xbh from Duran, Rafaella, Grissom, O’Neill, Abreu to still be strong enough. I still hope for a Duran, Grissom, Devers, Casas 1-4 out of all this. If O’Neill, Yoshida, Story, Rafaella are #5-8 this could still be a good offense.

I'd love to see Rafaella in the mix at the expense of Refsnyder but that would require a Refsnyder trade. I don't think they would just cut him and be stuck with his salary minus ML minimum. 

Refsnyder will cost just over a million to cut. If someone signs him to an MLB contract.

[bosoxnation]

Jan 28, 2024 1:51:50 GMT -5 keninten said:

Jan 27, 2024 21:36:32 GMT -5 oldfaithful2019 said:

I'd love to see Rafaella in the mix at the expense of Refsnyder but that would require a Refsnyder trade. I don't think they would just cut him and be stuck with his salary minus ML minimum. 

Refsnyder will cost just over a million to cut. If someone signs him to an MLB contract.

Cutting Rob whos a proven part time player is a ridiculous thought. Every day players struggle. Any bench player who hits .250+ plays as hard as him is someone you keep. Idc if we pay him to get 0 ABs next season. This man plays the right way and is super successful for someone who doesnt play enough to get his timing right and get in a groove. If you ever played you know how hard it is to play 1-2 games a week and produce. Every day players fail pinch hitting. The hardest thing to do in sports is hitting a baseball. Doing it against professionals sparingly is 100x harder. Don't even think about something like. Rob should be a lock as much as Devers. What you want is competition. Competition should breed excellence. Giving a player a clear path they didnt earn is weak. For example as soon as Turner started playing 1st base Casas exploded. The first month he had the clear path when we cut Hosmer he struggled.

[oldfaithful2019]

Jan 28, 2024 6:31:07 GMT -5 bosoxnation said:

Jan 28, 2024 1:51:50 GMT -5 keninten said:

Refsnyder will cost just over a million to cut. If someone signs him to an MLB contract.

Cutting Rob whos a proven part time player is a ridiculous thought. Every day players struggle. Any bench player who hits .250+ plays as hard as him is someone you keep. Idc if we pay him to get 0 ABs next season. This man plays the right way and is super successful for someone who doesnt play enough to get his timing right and get in a groove. If you ever played you know how hard it is to play 1-2 games a week and produce. Every day players fail pinch hitting. The hardest thing to do in sports is hitting a baseball. Doing it against professionals sparingly is 100x harder. Don't even think about something like. Rob should be a lock as much as Devers. What you want is competition. Competition should breed excellence. Giving a player a clear path they didnt earn is weak. For example as soon as Turner started playing 1st base Casas exploded. The first month he had the clear path when we cut Hosmer he struggled.

I am all for competition and appreciate very much what Rob has brought to the table. It may be that Abreu, Raffaella and Ref are in competition for 2 OF roster spots. Of those 3, Ref is the one with the clear path as he has no options and would likely cost the team at least 1.3 mil to release. That is why he would need to be traded for his roster space to be filled by someone else. It would be foolish to release him. It would be responsible to try and trade him if there are options with higher ceilings that are ready. 

[bg23]

Jan 28, 2024 11:16:45 GMT -5 oldfaithful2019 said:

Jan 28, 2024 6:31:07 GMT -5 bosoxnation said:

Cutting Rob whos a proven part time player is a ridiculous thought. Every day players struggle. Any bench player who hits .250+ plays as hard as him is someone you keep. Idc if we pay him to get 0 ABs next season. This man plays the right way and is super successful for someone who doesnt play enough to get his timing right and get in a groove. If you ever played you know how hard it is to play 1-2 games a week and produce. Every day players fail pinch hitting. The hardest thing to do in sports is hitting a baseball. Doing it against professionals sparingly is 100x harder. Don't even think about something like. Rob should be a lock as much as Devers. What you want is competition. Competition should breed excellence. Giving a player a clear path they didnt earn is weak. For example as soon as Turner started playing 1st base Casas exploded. The first month he had the clear path when we cut Hosmer he struggled.

I am all for competition and appreciate very much what Rob has brought to the table. It may be that Abreu, Raffaella and Ref are in competition for 2 OF roster spots. Of those 3, Ref is the one with the clear path as he has no options and would likely cost the team at least 1.3 mil to release. That is why he would need to be traded for his roster space to be filled by someone else. It would be foolish to release him. It would be responsible to try and trade him if there are options with higher ceilings that are ready. 

If they feel Rafaela, Abreu, and Refsnyder are all useful to the MLB team they could also have Rafaela take Pablo Reyes’ spot and as a utility and defensive replacement. You would keep two strong platoon options in Abreu and Refsnyder while keeping the defensive upside of Rafaela. Reyes isn’t much more than fungible depth unless he’s playing out of his depth like he did at times last year. Rafaela doesn’t have the contact skills Reyes has but is a superior player in just about every other regard. Leaves you heavy in outfield depth on the roster, but with Rafaela’s versatility, it is another option.

[scottysmalls]

The roster can have all four of Abreu/Rafaela/Refsnyder/Reyes on it and if the season started today I think it probably would.

[incandenza]

Among other things Refsnyder might be their backup first baseman, as things stand.

[ericmvan]

My take:

1) Dalbec is (at the least) the backup 1B / 3B (plus occasional RF and emergency SS). I endorse that: let's find out of he can stay in that role.

2) With the swapping-out of Verdudo for a RH bat TBD, Refsnsyfer barely has a role to play. Both Yoshida and Duran had great numbers versus LHP in Fenway, so that gives Ref 20 - 25 starts platooning with Duran on the road. I might keep him around through spring training, but it's hard to justify him for the 26. And that's because ...

3) You really want a LH bat with some talent on the bench, since there are are 3 RHP for every lefty. And in Abreu we have a guy who has already demonstrated that he's a solid backup outfielder. He can also start against RHP with a big platoon spit.

4) How many different ways is re-signing Adam Duball a smart move?

* He gives you a guy who can start the season hitting 5th, thus removing any pressure on O'Neill to hit there, if he latter has not had a great spring. In the long run they can share the 5 and 7 spot based on matchups. 

* That allows you to hit Yoshida 6th, where he'd be great [1],  and not waste him. The 7 hole is for a lower OBP / higher SA type while 9 is opposite, and they have a great 9 guy in Grissom. If Rafela struggles you have to pop Grissom up to 7, but then there's very little hitting in front of Casas or Devers in the 2 hole. A 9 hitter who can get on base at an average clip or better is a big plus in today's lineups. In short, adding Duvall transforms a week 7 through 9 to a strong one. 

* If Duvall gets hurt, you just call up Rafaela and give him another taste of the show, with no pressure on him. It turns a negative into a positive!

* If they're not in contention at the deadline, you can trade him and call up Rafaela for good.

RHB, TBD, Find out what it means to me

Scenarios ...

Stand Pat for Now. The expectation or hope is that Rafaela will be a bottom of the order asset sometime around June 1. In the interim, Dalbec is the most frequent 9th man in the lineup. You might get a better handle on his offense and you definitely will get a better handle on Yoshida's defense in LF. When Rafaela arrives, Duran goes to LF, Yoshida goes to primary DH, Dalbec goes to the bench, and if all the outfielders are healthy, the little-used Refsnyder is dealt.

Major drawback: at this point in the season you're not looking to give Casas or Devers the occasional DH half-rest (in fact, it would probably piss them off). That means Dalbec is a near-regular at DH, and most hitters do not hit as well as normal when they DH. So maybe the only thing you learn about Dalbec is that he's one of those guys. 

In short, it's a formula for a slow start on offense (and bad vibes to overcome for Dalbec, who above all needs the opposite). How much of the fan base tunes out?

Rafaela Starts the Season in CF.

No. No. Let's imagine that they have a secret reason to believe that the kid who put up a 74 wRC+ in 82 PA last fall will put up 100+ out of the gate this year. How much is gained by that if you're right? Why not wait a few weeks to confirm your idea works in AAA? The downside is that he starts to doubt himself and you wreck him for good. The reason why there's an edit is that I forgot to point this out, because it seems so obviously wrong. (Note that tremendous ST could change that, if there was a specific new thing he's doing ... JBJ's rookie year was not that.)  

Duvall Imminent / Playing Salary Chicken. The only FA I could find that might be an interesting alternative was Aaron Hicks, and he just signed withe Angels, the only other team that was reported to be engaged with Duvall. It's possible that ownership is OK with Duvall at the right price and that they made him an offer a while ago that he rejected. Does his agent give in now? If I were him, I propose to split the difference the two offers ... but do the Sox insist on their number, since there's no other bidder? Hey, everyone can lose!

Same, But With am Ownership-imposed Salary Cap ... that they are struggling to meet. Trading Jansen and handing the closer job to Martin would be the obvious route. That actually wouldn't suck if they could pick up a (secretly?) high-upside replacement.

Having said that ... do I really believe that ownership could be so blindingly idiotic as to impose a salary cap so extreme that at present it makes Duvall impossible? I don't have an answer to that.

Hicks, BTW, cost the Angels the minimum, as the Yankees pay the remainder.

[1] Rationale for this claim is in theory owned by the Red Sox.

[notstarboard]

Jan 30, 2024 23:10:46 GMT -5 ericmvan said:

My take:

1) Dalbec is (at the least) the backup 1B / 3B (plus occasional RF and emergency SS). I endorse that: let's find out of he can stay in that role.

2) With the swapping-out of Verdudo for a RH bat TBD, Refsnsyfer barely has a role to play. Both Yoshida and Duran had great numbers versus LHP in Fenway, so that gives Ref 20 - 25 starts platooning with Duran on the road. I might keep him around through spring training, but it's hard to justify him for the 26. And that's because ...

3) You really want a LH bat with some talent on the bench, since there are are 3 RHP for every lefty. And in Abreu we have a guy who has already demonstrated that he's a solid backup outfielder. He can also start against RHP with a big platoon spit.

4) How many different ways is re-signing Adam Duball a smart move?

* He gives you a guy who can start the season hitting 5th, thus removing any pressure on O'Neill to hit there, if he latter has not had a great spring. In the long run they can share the 5 and 7 spot based on matchups. 

* That allows you to hit Yoshida 6th, where he'd be great [1],  and not waste him. The 7 hole is for a lower OBP / higher SA type while 9 is opposite, and they have a great 9 guy in Grissom. If Rafela struggles you have to pop Grissom up to 7, but then there's very little hitting in front of Casas or Devers in the 2 hole. A 9 hitter who can get on base at an average clip or better is a big plus in today's lineups. In short, adding Duvall transforms a week 7 through 9 to a strong one. 

* If Duvall gets hurt, you just call up Rafaela and give him another taste of the show, with no pressure on him. It turns a negative into a positive!

* If they're not in contention at the deadline, you can trade him and call up Rafaela for good.

RHB, TBD, Find out what it means to me

Scenarios ...

Stand Pat for Now. The expectation or hope is that Rafaela will be a bottom of the order asset sometime around June 1. In the interim, Dalbec is the most frequent 9th man in the lineup. You might get a better handle on his offense and you definitely will get a better handle on Yoshida's defense in LF. When Rafaela arrives, Duran goes to LF, Yoshida goes to primary DH, Dalbec goes to the bench, and if all the outfielders are healthy, the little-used Refsnyder is dealt.

Major drawback: at this point in the season you're not looking to give Casas or Devers the occasional DH half-rest (in fact, it would probably piss them off). That means Dalbec is a near-regular at DH, and most hitters do not hit as well as normal when they DH. So maybe the only thing you learn about Dalbec is that he's one of those guys. 

In short, it's a formula for a slow start on offense (and bad vibes to overcome for Dalbec, who above all needs the opposite). How much of the fan base tunes out?

Rafaela Starts the Season in CF.

No. No. Let's imagine that they have a secret reason to believe that the kid who put up a 74 wRC+ in 82 PA last fall will put up 100+ out of the gate this year. How much is gained by that if you're right? Why not wait a few weeks to confirm your idea works in AAA? The downside is that he starts to doubt himself and you wreck him for good. The reason why there's an edit is that I forgot to point this out, because it seems so obviously wrong. (Note that tremendous ST could change that, if there was a specific new thing he's doing ... JBJ's rookie year was not that.)  

Duvall Imminent / Playing Salary Chicken. The only FA I could find that might be an interesting alternative was Aaron Hicks, and he just signed withe Angels, the only other team that was reported to be engaged with Duvall. It's possible that ownership is OK with Duvall at the right price and that they made him an offer a while ago that he rejected. Does his agent give in now? If I were him, I propose to split the difference the two offers ... but do the Sox insist on their number, since there's no other bidder? Hey, everyone can lose!

Same, But With am Ownership-imposed Salary Cap ... that they are struggling to meet. Trading Jansen and handing the closer job to Martin would be the obvious route. That actually wouldn't suck if they could pick up a (secretly?) high-upside replacement.

Having said that ... do I really believe that ownership could be so blindingly idiotic as to impose a salary cap so extreme that at present it makes Duvall impossible? I don't have an answer to that.

Hicks, BTW, cost the Angels the minimum, as the Yankees pay the remainder.

[1] Rationale for this claim is in theory owned by the Red Sox.

Some good thoughts in here. Giving any sort of meaningful ABs to Dalbec is terrifying to me, though. I would much rather give some run to Abreu in RF, who looked the part last year, and use a guy like Valdez as the sometimes-DH LHH bench bat. Dropping Dalbec from the roster also has the advantage of making Refsnyder less redundant, although a Duvall signing would once again cannibalize a chunk of his role.

The obvious counterpoint is, "If not Dalbec, who is going to back up 1B?" To that I'd reply, "Refsnyder, or Duvall if he gets signed". If Casas actually gets injured, Dalbec should of course get called up, but otherwise I'd fine with one of those two swapping in to give Casas a breather.

[keninten]

Jan 30, 2024 23:10:46 GMT -5 ericmvan said:

My take:

1) Dalbec is (at the least) the backup 1B / 3B (plus occasional RF and emergency SS). I endorse that: let's find out of he can stay in that role.

2) With the swapping-out of Verdudo for a RH bat TBD, Refsnsyfer barely has a role to play. Both Yoshida and Duran had great numbers versus LHP in Fenway, so that gives Ref 20 - 25 starts platooning with Duran on the road. I might keep him around through spring training, but it's hard to justify him for the 26. And that's because ...

3) You really want a LH bat with some talent on the bench, since there are are 3 RHP for every lefty. And in Abreu we have a guy who has already demonstrated that he's a solid backup outfielder. He can also start against RHP with a big platoon spit.

4) How many different ways is re-signing Adam Duball a smart move?

* He gives you a guy who can start the season hitting 5th, thus removing any pressure on O'Neill to hit there, if he latter has not had a great spring. In the long run they can share the 5 and 7 spot based on matchups. 

* That allows you to hit Yoshida 6th, where he'd be great [1],  and not waste him. The 7 hole is for a lower OBP / higher SA type while 9 is opposite, and they have a great 9 guy in Grissom. If Rafela struggles you have to pop Grissom up to 7, but then there's very little hitting in front of Casas or Devers in the 2 hole. A 9 hitter who can get on base at an average clip or better is a big plus in today's lineups. In short, adding Duvall transforms a week 7 through 9 to a strong one. 

* If Duvall gets hurt, you just call up Rafaela and give him another taste of the show, with no pressure on him. It turns a negative into a positive!

* If they're not in contention at the deadline, you can trade him and call up Rafaela for good.

RHB, TBD, Find out what it means to me

Scenarios ...

Stand Pat for Now. The expectation or hope is that Rafaela will be a bottom of the order asset sometime around June 1. In the interim, Dalbec is the most frequent 9th man in the lineup. You might get a better handle on his offense and you definitely will get a better handle on Yoshida's defense in LF. When Rafaela arrives, Duran goes to LF, Yoshida goes to primary DH, Dalbec goes to the bench, and if all the outfielders are healthy, the little-used Refsnyder is dealt.

Major drawback: at this point in the season you're not looking to give Casas or Devers the occasional DH half-rest (in fact, it would probably piss them off). That means Dalbec is a near-regular at DH, and most hitters do not hit as well as normal when they DH. So maybe the only thing you learn about Dalbec is that he's one of those guys. 

In short, it's a formula for a slow start on offense (and bad vibes to overcome for Dalbec, who above all needs the opposite). How much of the fan base tunes out?

Rafaela Starts the Season in CF.

No. No. Let's imagine that they have a secret reason to believe that the kid who put up a 74 wRC+ in 82 PA last fall will put up 100+ out of the gate this year. How much is gained by that if you're right? Why not wait a few weeks to confirm your idea works in AAA? The downside is that he starts to doubt himself and you wreck him for good. The reason why there's an edit is that I forgot to point this out, because it seems so obviously wrong. (Note that tremendous ST could change that, if there was a specific new thing he's doing ... JBJ's rookie year was not that.)  

Duvall Imminent / Playing Salary Chicken. The only FA I could find that might be an interesting alternative was Aaron Hicks, and he just signed withe Angels, the only other team that was reported to be engaged with Duvall. It's possible that ownership is OK with Duvall at the right price and that they made him an offer a while ago that he rejected. Does his agent give in now? If I were him, I propose to split the difference the two offers ... but do the Sox insist on their number, since there's no other bidder? Hey, everyone can lose!

Same, But With am Ownership-imposed Salary Cap ... that they are struggling to meet. Trading Jansen and handing the closer job to Martin would be the obvious route. That actually wouldn't suck if they could pick up a (secretly?) high-upside replacement.

Having said that ... do I really believe that ownership could be so blindingly idiotic as to impose a salary cap so extreme that at present it makes Duvall impossible? I don't have an answer to that.

Hicks, BTW, cost the Angels the minimum, as the Yankees pay the remainder.

[1] Rationale for this claim is in theory owned by the Red Sox.

I can talk someones ear off but I`m terrible at posting on the web. I wish I could put my thoughts down as easy as many on here are able to do.

Pretty much agree with what you are saying here but I don`t think they will get anything for Refsnyder especially if he`s not playing much.
I`m glad they are not spending big on FAs. Duval at one year is fine but I really want them to see who will be MLB OFers this year.

This off season I`ve wanted to see the pitching revamped with young guys getting shots. As far as Jansen and Martin, I`d like to see both traded and also see who in the BP can step up. It could be bad but I`m looking at who could be important after this season. I`ve liked the additions of Campbell, Fitts, Criswell, and even Weissert.

This team could be decent but I`d rather learn about what they have so they know how who they have on the next WS contending team. If it`s just bench players and middle RPs then they will know if Soto or the SPs in next years market are who they should make serious offers for.

[soxfansince67]

theathletic.com/5236405/2024/01/31/red-sox-roster-projection-preseason?source=user-shared-article

Jen's roster projection stab

[ericmvan]

Jan 31, 2024 0:32:13 GMT -5 notstarboard said:

Jan 30, 2024 23:10:46 GMT -5 ericmvan said:

Some good thoughts in here. Giving any sort of meaningful ABs to Dalbec is terrifying to me, though. I would much rather give some run to Abreu in RF, who looked the part last year, and use a guy like Valdez as the sometimes-DH LHH bench bat. Dropping Dalbec from the roster also has the advantage of making Refsnyder less redundant, although a Duvall signing would once again cannibalize a chunk of his role.

The obvious counterpoint is, "If not Dalbec, who is going to back up 1B?" To that I'd reply, "Refsnyder, or Duvall if he gets signed". If Casas actually gets injured, Dalbec should of course get called up, but otherwise I'd fine with one of those two swapping in to give Casas a breather.

Dalbec in AAA was .269 / .381 / .557. Clay Davenport's MLB Translation system pays extra attention to high K rates. and correctly raised a red flag on Will Middlebrooks when everyone else was psyched about him.

He has Dalbec's AAA numbers translating as .256 / .331 / .485 (in an average league offense). That's a really good guy coming off the bench.

[wanderingdude]

Jan 31, 2024 22:54:37 GMT -5 ericmvan said:

Jan 31, 2024 0:32:13 GMT -5 notstarboard said:

Some good thoughts in here. Giving any sort of meaningful ABs to Dalbec is terrifying to me, though. I would much rather give some run to Abreu in RF, who looked the part last year, and use a guy like Valdez as the sometimes-DH LHH bench bat. Dropping Dalbec from the roster also has the advantage of making Refsnyder less redundant, although a Duvall signing would once again cannibalize a chunk of his role.

The obvious counterpoint is, "If not Dalbec, who is going to back up 1B?" To that I'd reply, "Refsnyder, or Duvall if he gets signed". If Casas actually gets injured, Dalbec should of course get called up, but otherwise I'd fine with one of those two swapping in to give Casas a breather.

Dalbec in AAA was .269 / .381 / .557. Clay Davenport's MLB Translation system pays extra attention to high K rates. and correctly raised a red flag on Will Middlebrooks when everyone else was psyched about him.

He has Dalbec's AAA numbers translating as .256 / .331 / .485 (in an average league offense). That's a really good guy coming off the bench.

Do you know if that model has been updated to account for the strike zone changes or rule changes? I’d find it incredibly surprising to see Dalbec run a .330 OBP when he’s a career .297 guy and that number has fallen year after year (smaller sample last year). He’s a fine up and down guy and if he played better defense would be a really good bench player, but i think he should be traded or starting in worcester.

[jimoh]

Dalbec has about 950 mlb PA.  For two brief periods, one about 95 PA and one about 120, he has hit like Jimmie Foxx.  The rest of the time, he has hit like a poor backup SS.  That doesn't include going 0-12 with 5k and zero BB in the postseason, when we were a few hits away from the World Series.  Isn't it time to give up hope?

[incandenza]

A fangraphs Szymborski article about players where the projections differ. Duvall, O'Neill, and Casas appear.

blogs.fangraphs.com/projection-fight-club-2024/

He says this in re: Casas:

For Triston Casas, my best guess is that the systems have different ideas about how a left-handed power hitter will generally fare in Fenway Park, which has a rather unorthodox shape and is generally an awful place to be a lefty slugger. Even Ted Williams felt the effects!

Is this true? I thought Fenway was supposed to be counterintuitively good for lefty sluggers because they can take advantage of the Green Monster while going the other way? Or is counter-counterintuitively that the big right field hurts them more than it helps? I'd think if you had big enough power to still get it over the right field wall while also having power to all fields (a la Big Papi and Casas) Fenway would help.

[levi]

Feb 1, 2024 10:37:57 GMT -5 incandenza said:

A fangraphs Szymborski article about players where the projections differ. Duvall, O'Neill, and Casas appear.

blogs.fangraphs.com/projection-fight-club-2024/

He says this in re: Casas:

For Triston Casas, my best guess is that the systems have different ideas about how a left-handed power hitter will generally fare in Fenway Park, which has a rather unorthodox shape and is generally an awful place to be a lefty slugger. Even Ted Williams felt the effects!

Is this true? I thought Fenway was supposed to be counterintuitively good for lefty sluggers because they can take advantage of the Green Monster while going the other way? Or is counter-counterintuitively that the big right field hurts them more than it helps? I'd think if you had big enough power to still get it over the right field wall while also having power to all fields (a la Big Papi and Casas) Fenway would help.

Nope, you're right (baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2023&batSide=L&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=)

[itinerantherb]

It looks like Fenway slightly suppresses HRs (presumably that's the deep RF) but that's more than offset by its huge inflation of doubles and triples (presumably the monster for the doubles and the triangle and RF corner for the triples). 

[scottysmalls]

Jan 30, 2024 23:10:46 GMT -5 ericmvan said:

My take:

1) Dalbec is (at the least) the backup 1B / 3B (plus occasional RF and emergency SS). I endorse that: let's find out of he can stay in that role.

2) With the swapping-out of Verdudo for a RH bat TBD, Refsnsyfer barely has a role to play. Both Yoshida and Duran had great numbers versus LHP in Fenway, so that gives Ref 20 - 25 starts platooning with Duran on the road. I might keep him around through spring training, but it's hard to justify him for the 26. And that's because ...

3) You really want a LH bat with some talent on the bench, since there are are 3 RHP for every lefty. And in Abreu we have a guy who has already demonstrated that he's a solid backup outfielder. He can also start against RHP with a big platoon spit.

4) How many different ways is re-signing Adam Duball a smart move?

* He gives you a guy who can start the season hitting 5th, thus removing any pressure on O'Neill to hit there, if he latter has not had a great spring. In the long run they can share the 5 and 7 spot based on matchups. 

* That allows you to hit Yoshida 6th, where he'd be great [1],  and not waste him. The 7 hole is for a lower OBP / higher SA type while 9 is opposite, and they have a great 9 guy in Grissom. If Rafela struggles you have to pop Grissom up to 7, but then there's very little hitting in front of Casas or Devers in the 2 hole. A 9 hitter who can get on base at an average clip or better is a big plus in today's lineups. In short, adding Duvall transforms a week 7 through 9 to a strong one. 

* If Duvall gets hurt, you just call up Rafaela and give him another taste of the show, with no pressure on him. It turns a negative into a positive!

* If they're not in contention at the deadline, you can trade him and call up Rafaela for good.

RHB, TBD, Find out what it means to me

Scenarios ...

Stand Pat for Now. The expectation or hope is that Rafaela will be a bottom of the order asset sometime around June 1. In the interim, Dalbec is the most frequent 9th man in the lineup. You might get a better handle on his offense and you definitely will get a better handle on Yoshida's defense in LF. When Rafaela arrives, Duran goes to LF, Yoshida goes to primary DH, Dalbec goes to the bench, and if all the outfielders are healthy, the little-used Refsnyder is dealt.

Major drawback: at this point in the season you're not looking to give Casas or Devers the occasional DH half-rest (in fact, it would probably piss them off). That means Dalbec is a near-regular at DH, and most hitters do not hit as well as normal when they DH. So maybe the only thing you learn about Dalbec is that he's one of those guys. 

In short, it's a formula for a slow start on offense (and bad vibes to overcome for Dalbec, who above all needs the opposite). How much of the fan base tunes out?

Rafaela Starts the Season in CF.

No. No. Let's imagine that they have a secret reason to believe that the kid who put up a 74 wRC+ in 82 PA last fall will put up 100+ out of the gate this year. How much is gained by that if you're right? Why not wait a few weeks to confirm your idea works in AAA? The downside is that he starts to doubt himself and you wreck him for good. The reason why there's an edit is that I forgot to point this out, because it seems so obviously wrong. (Note that tremendous ST could change that, if there was a specific new thing he's doing ... JBJ's rookie year was not that.)  

Duvall Imminent / Playing Salary Chicken. The only FA I could find that might be an interesting alternative was Aaron Hicks, and he just signed withe Angels, the only other team that was reported to be engaged with Duvall. It's possible that ownership is OK with Duvall at the right price and that they made him an offer a while ago that he rejected. Does his agent give in now? If I were him, I propose to split the difference the two offers ... but do the Sox insist on their number, since there's no other bidder? Hey, everyone can lose!

Same, But With am Ownership-imposed Salary Cap ... that they are struggling to meet. Trading Jansen and handing the closer job to Martin would be the obvious route. That actually wouldn't suck if they could pick up a (secretly?) high-upside replacement.

Having said that ... do I really believe that ownership could be so blindingly idiotic as to impose a salary cap so extreme that at present it makes Duvall impossible? I don't have an answer to that.

Hicks, BTW, cost the Angels the minimum, as the Yankees pay the remainder.

[1] Rationale for this claim is in theory owned by the Red Sox.

I'm not in a particular rush to move Refsnyder to get Dalbec on the MLB roster before the season. He's got one more option, use it. 

[gerry]

Feb 1, 2024 11:12:42 GMT -5 itinerantherb said:

It looks like Fenway slightly suppresses HRs (presumably that's the deep RF) but that's more than offset by its huge inflation of doubles and triples (presumably the monster for the doubles and the triangle and RF corner for the triples). 

I am sure everyone knows this but just in case, Fenway’s bullpens were built specifically to accommodate Ted Williams’ LHB. He, and others, we’re getting lots of FB outs there. It was dubbed by the always friendly Sox beat reporters as Williamsburg and Williamsville.