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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 27, 2023 17:08:25 GMT -5
Eloy is a more interesting righty DH/OF type than most if not all of the free agents, if the White Sox want to dump him I’d love for the Sox to grab him.
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Post by soxstan96 on Nov 27, 2023 17:14:54 GMT -5
Eloy only has one year left on his contract. Cease has holes. I'm not sure I jump the gun on that deal.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 27, 2023 17:15:45 GMT -5
Eloy only has one year left on his contract. Cease has holes. I'm not sure I jump the gun on that deal. Jimenez has team options for 2025 and 2026 fwiw add: They are for $16.5M and then $18.5M each though. Also because his contract was backloaded and because there is a buy-out of $3M I think he would count as $16M on the CBT in 2024 which both makes him less interesting and more interesting in the sense that the White Sox probably would basically give him away for almost nothing.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 27, 2023 17:52:52 GMT -5
Is there any reporting about them shopping Eloy? I agree that he'd basically be given away at this point. Without knowing just how messed up his body is at this point, I think I'd be happy to get him.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 27, 2023 17:54:18 GMT -5
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Post by awalkinthepark on Nov 27, 2023 19:06:25 GMT -5
Eloy is a really interesting buy low candidate. He's still young and I think he can hit the ball as hard as almost any right handed hitter in baseball, and he's not a huge strikeout guy either. But he's had issues staying healthy, hits the ball on the ground a ton and is weirdly a reverse split guy who has pedestrian numbers against lefties, which is sort of the whole point of getting a right handed hitter in the first place. But then again if he didn't have all these red flags, the White Sox wouldn't be shopping him and he would cost a whole lot more. A Devers-Jimenez-Casas middle of the order could be really good but I would want the Red Sox to really do their due diligence on if they think he'd be a good change of scenery guy.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 28, 2023 17:04:08 GMT -5
The dreaded no black holes, not much star power zone. Hard to improve from there
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 28, 2023 17:17:59 GMT -5
The dreaded no black holes, not much star power zone. Hard to improve from there
First glance compared to Steamer very bearish on Devers and bullish on Story.
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Post by ephus on Nov 28, 2023 17:41:15 GMT -5
We're all just gonna pretend that ZiPS projection doesn't include ROMAN ANTHONY getting time in left and Rafaela casually sliding over to second. Cool.
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Post by jmei on Nov 28, 2023 17:45:06 GMT -5
Wouldn’t have guessed that catcher would be their worst projected position.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 28, 2023 17:45:33 GMT -5
The dreaded no black holes, not much star power zone. Hard to improve from there
If you're the type to put a ton of stock into these things, this is a giant flashing neon "TRADE JARREN DURAN" sign
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Post by ghostofjuanpena on Nov 28, 2023 18:08:49 GMT -5
So Dumb to do this now , wait til the end of the offseason cuz I think everyone can agree this roster is gonna see some turnover , I think 5 good moves are in store
2 SP 2B (RH) OF/DH (RH) LHRP
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Nov 28, 2023 18:16:27 GMT -5
The dreaded no black holes, not much star power zone. Hard to improve from there
If you're the type to put a ton of stock into these things, this is a giant flashing neon "TRADE JARREN DURAN" sign I saw the same thing ! Maybe if he were in LF the flashing light would not go off. Duran in CF scares me. Speedy for sure, but terribly reckless.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Nov 28, 2023 18:23:41 GMT -5
We're all just gonna pretend that ZiPS projection doesn't include ROMAN ANTHONY getting time in left and Rafaela casually sliding over to second. Cool. Feel like this needs to be said every single year. This is from the introductions to this year's ZiPS projections: "Another crucial thing to bear in mind is that the basic ZiPS projections are not playing-time predictors, at least with players without firm possession of a full-time job in the majors. By design, ZiPS has no idea who will actually play in the majors in 2024. ZiPS is essentially projecting equivalent production; a batter with a .240 projection may “actually” have a .260 Triple-A projection or a .290 Double-A projection. But telling me how Julio Rodríguez would hit in a full-time role in the majors in 2022 was a far more interesting use of a projection system than it telling me that he would only play a partial season (in the end, quite obviously, he played a full year). For the depth charts that go live in every article, I use the FanGraphs Depth Charts to determine the playing time for individual players. Since we’re talking about team construction, I can’t leave ZiPS to its own devices for an application like this. It’s the same reason I use modified depth charts for team projections in-season. There’s a probabilistic element in the ZiPS depth charts: sometimes Joe Schmo will play a full season, sometimes he’ll miss playing time and Buck Schmuck has to step in. But the basic concept is very straightforward" For Roman Anthony specifically, this really shouldn't be much of a surprise. 19 year olds don't destroy high A all that often, so when they do, projection systems will take notice.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Nov 28, 2023 18:29:00 GMT -5
Eloy is a really interesting buy low candidate. He's still young and I think he can hit the ball as hard as almost any right handed hitter in baseball, and he's not a huge strikeout guy either. But he's had issues staying healthy, hits the ball on the ground a ton and is weirdly a reverse split guy who has pedestrian numbers against lefties, which is sort of the whole point of getting a right handed hitter in the first place. But then again if he didn't have all these red flags, the White Sox wouldn't be shopping him and he would cost a whole lot more. A Devers-Jimenez-Casas middle of the order could be really good but I would want the Red Sox to really do their due diligence on if they think he'd be a good change of scenery guy. I would much rather see a bigger deal with the White Sox that brings Robert to the Sox. Anthony most likely would be a requirement from the WS standpoint, but it is time fo a couple high upside moves that still feel a bit uncomfortable.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 28, 2023 18:59:46 GMT -5
Here's a complete list of position player free agents who have a Steamer WAR projection greater than the Red Sox' ZiPS projection at any given position:
Garver (C), 1.8 Rosario (2B), 2.3 Bellinger (CF), 2.4 Ohtani (DH), 4.0
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 28, 2023 19:07:48 GMT -5
That Steamer Amed Rosario projection includes an obviously unreasonable defense projection that probably overrates him by about 0.8 WAR. I think I'd be interested in platooning him with Valdez on like a 2/16 deal or something though.
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Post by asm19 on Nov 28, 2023 19:09:02 GMT -5
Here's a complete list of position player free agents who have a Steamer WAR projection greater than the Red Sox' ZiPS projection at any given position:
Garver (C), 1.8 Rosario (2B), 2.3 Bellinger (CF), 2.4 Ohtani (DH), 4.0
Steamer loves itself some Amed Rosario… They can gain a projected full win (or higher) by upgrading the current Houck rotation spot into something else better, but kinda that’s assumed at this point.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 28, 2023 19:30:48 GMT -5
That Steamer Amed Rosario projection includes an obviously unreasonable defense projection that probably overrates him by about 0.8 WAR. I think I'd be interested in platooning him with Valdez on like a 2/16 deal or something though. It's also assuming he's playing at SS, I think, and the projection would be lower with the 2B positional adjustment. Actually both he and Garver are out of position in those comparisons, if you figure Garver is mostly a DH. So the only real upgrades are Bellinger and Ohtani. (And then about a dozen starting pitchers and a bunch of relievers.)
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Post by melvinhoggs on Nov 28, 2023 19:39:00 GMT -5
The dreaded no black holes, not much star power zone. Hard to improve from there
I don't see it as hard to improve, it just means the Red Sox need to actually pony up and chase stars instead of marginal upgrades (because the depth is already pretty good). Ohtani. Yamamoto.
While the options are limited given the lack of true stars available, it does have the small benefit that if you do sign a star – you have something actually worthwhile to trade away afterward. For example, if the Red Sox went and got Soto (not advocating or predicting, just hypothetically) then one of Verdugo/Duran/Abreu could be a legitimate trade asset and not just some 4A guy that nobody wants.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 29, 2023 0:23:37 GMT -5
Eloy is a really interesting buy low candidate. He's still young and I think he can hit the ball as hard as almost any right handed hitter in baseball, and he's not a huge strikeout guy either. But he's had issues staying healthy, hits the ball on the ground a ton and is weirdly a reverse split guy who has pedestrian numbers against lefties, which is sort of the whole point of getting a right handed hitter in the first place. But then again if he didn't have all these red flags, the White Sox wouldn't be shopping him and he would cost a whole lot more. A Devers-Jimenez-Casas middle of the order could be really good but I would want the Red Sox to really do their due diligence on if they think he'd be a good change of scenery guy. I would much rather see a bigger deal with the White Sox that brings Robert to the Sox. Anthony most likely would be a requirement from the WS standpoint, but it is time fo a couple high upside moves that still feel a bit uncomfortable. As Steve Adams pointed out in his MLBTR chat today, Robert (as always, the combination of the bloke and his contract) may well possess the highest trade value of any player on the planet. The haul would be brutal to the point that a serious injury to Robert would leave you back at square one and down about half of your top 8 prospects. I would rather see the team spend money on stars and spend prospect capital on smaller-scale improvements.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 29, 2023 9:50:04 GMT -5
Some stuff that stood out to me on the ZiPS projections... - I think Szymborski has just the right tone about this team: "The offense highlights the awkward situation the Sox are in... To upgrade on this group, you need to find 3–4-WAR players, and those don’t come cheap. Boston would be better off with a few more sixes and zeroes on the depth chart." There just aren't any obvious upgrades for the offense unless they get Ohtani or make a big trade; otherwise, the best they can really do is tread water and hope things break right with underperformers rebounding (Story, Devers, Yoshida) and young guys taking a step up. - The step down from Verdugo to Abreu is significant: 2.2 to 1.5 WAR, and that's with ZiPS giving Abreu a very generous defensive projection (better than Story and equal to Rafaela...?). - David Hamilton with a very generous projection on defense as well, and overall has him at 1.6 WAR. - Would have liked to see Devers get better than a 3.6 WAR projection. That's just not what you need from a franchise cornerstone. Even his 80th percentile projection (5.1) is fairly underwhelming. - Story gets a nice bouceback projection, all the way to a 102 OPS+. I'll take the over on 2.2 WAR if he really hits that well. - Just a 1.5 WAR projection for Duran, and an 80th percentile projection of only 2.6, even though he was on a 4 WAR pace last season. I wonder what the team's own projections say? And with regard to some of the trade talk here, I wonder what other teams' projections say? - The best catcher projection goes to Kyle Teel (1.5 WAR). #2 is... Ronaldo Hernandez (1.0). Wong is third at 0.8. - ZiPS is not too into Kutter Crawford; has him at only a 101 ERA-. Still likes Whitlock though (84).
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 29, 2023 10:03:32 GMT -5
Something that would be nice on the ZiPS projections is if he would provide a /600 PA table. I want to know what the projection for a full season of Story is without having to do the math myself (it's 3.2 WAR).
Also I thought an interesting excerpt was that he said re; Rafaela "my Total Zone-esque coordinate measurement system had him as the second-best center fielder in the minors."
Add: also ZiPS likes Duvall a lot more than Steamer
Add2: Lol at Isaac Coffey having an equal projection to Tanner Houck
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Post by asm19 on Nov 29, 2023 10:21:23 GMT -5
Some stuff that stood out to me on the ZiPS projections... - I think Szymborski has just the right tone about this team: "The offense highlights the awkward situation the Sox are in... To upgrade on this group, you need to find 3–4-WAR players, and those don’t come cheap. Boston would be better off with a few more sixes and zeroes on the depth chart." There just aren't any obvious upgrades for the offense unless they get Ohtani or make a big trade; otherwise, the best they can really do is tread water and hope things break right with underperformers rebounding (Story, Devers, Yoshida) and young guys taking a step up. Before 2020 and 2021, Chaim Bloom had made the point that " the front-line talent on our major league roster can play with anybody" - something that was certainly true in '21 as a middle of the order of Devers/Xander/JD with Eovaldi anchoring the rotation (bolstered by a supporting cast of Schwarber, Kiké career year, etc) nearly got them to the World Series. That point just might not be the case anymore. As an example, the ZIPS projection for Baltimore's positional group surpasses the Red Sox at nearly every spot - and the Orioles are paying their guys like a combined 29 cents. I don't want to take this conversation in a backwards looking direction, but where they stand now makes the last two deadlines so the more brutal in hindsight. You missed possibly A) acquiring more talent that could be used to help this team in 2024, or B) you may have missed your window by not being aggressive enough when you had more high-end talent and were just a few games out of the playoffs. Looking forwards now... is this team as constituted worth a win-now splash, or would they be better off just extending Casas/Bello/etc. and waiting for Mayer/Anthony/Teel to get here? (As someone prone to rose-colored glasses, this is not something I thought I would ever contemplate!)
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 29, 2023 10:31:31 GMT -5
Wouldn’t have guessed that catcher would be their worst projected position. The league average wOBA was .318 this year and Wong’s xwOBA was .274. McGuire’s was a hilarious .238. The Red Sox had a sub-80 wRC+ at C and got substantial luck relative to expected outcomes. Wong also had a -4 Fielding Run Value per Statcast. In my eyes, Garver is a slam dunk fit here. DH insurance for Yoshida, great bat for the C position, and in an admittedly small sample he was close to average defensively. As a bonus he’s a big fly ball pull hitting RHB. I really would like to see him signed.
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