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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
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Post by kwodes on Nov 22, 2023 13:49:29 GMT -5
I think we can all agree that the options for 2nd base all have pros and cons, and we all value them differently, but at the end of the day we can't say which one is best because we don't know what the cost to acquire would be.
Some might value Kim over adames, or gleybar over India, or Drury over Edman, but if we could get edman in a 1-for-1 for Bryan Mata, but Drury would cost Marcelo Mayer (I know he wouldn't) then we'd all want edman.
So it all comes down to what the cost of each player will be. If we knew what the asking price of each was, then we'd be able to say which option would be best.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 22, 2023 13:52:30 GMT -5
As a personal preference thing I love having more guys on the team who can steal bases so purely from that perspective Edman is fun. Though he got way less aggressive in terms of advancing on balls in play this year, and succeeded less when he did try, which is kind of weird.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 22, 2023 14:38:08 GMT -5
Do we know if Drury is even available? While the Angels should 100 percent rebuild and entertain any offers from what I read that's not their plan. The Angels quite frankly are a poorly run org so it wouldn't shock me if they're unreasonable in regards to a Drury deal.
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Post by ghostofjuanpena on Nov 22, 2023 19:39:35 GMT -5
I think Dubon should be someone we target , Astros were reportedly interested in Verdugo last year
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Post by asm19 on Nov 22, 2023 22:33:16 GMT -5
I think Dubon should be someone we target , Astros were reportedly interested in Verdugo last year That feels like a realistic return for Verdugo - and something one could see the Astros doing with Altuve returned from injury (their OF in this hypothetical then being McCormick, Tucker, Verdugo.) I could see the fit for Dubon - although it’s worth noting that he profiles very similarly to Rafaela at the moment. Versatile good defender who makes contact but swings at everything? baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/mauricio-dubon-643289 The Sox may feel Rafaela can come close to matching (or even exceeding) what a guy like Dubon can do.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 23, 2023 0:10:48 GMT -5
I think Dubon should be someone we target , Astros were reportedly interested in Verdugo last year That feels like a realistic return for Verdugo - and something one could see the Astros doing with Altuve returned from injury (their OF in this hypothetical then being McCormick, Tucker, Verdugo.) I could see the fit for Dubon - although it’s worth noting that he profiles very similarly to Rafaela at the moment. Versatile good defender who makes contact but swings at everything? baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/mauricio-dubon-643289 The Sox may feel Rafaela can come close to matching (or even exceeding) what a guy like Dubon can do. I don't see what's wrong with having both CR and MD if you're getting three years of Dubon straight up for one of Verdugo. I don't think HOU does it but maybe you can sweeten the deal with Reyes. Dubon fits as a nice platoon/defensive replacement with Valdez and played every position besides P and C last season.
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Post by soxaddict on Nov 23, 2023 1:36:24 GMT -5
I wouldn't be disappointed with Gio Urshela at 2B.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,111
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Post by jimoh on Nov 23, 2023 7:17:00 GMT -5
That feels like a realistic return for Verdugo - and something one could see the Astros doing with Altuve returned from injury (their OF in this hypothetical then being McCormick, Tucker, Verdugo.) I could see the fit for Dubon - although it’s worth noting that he profiles very similarly to Rafaela at the moment. Versatile good defender who makes contact but swings at everything? baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/mauricio-dubon-643289 The Sox may feel Rafaela can come close to matching (or even exceeding) what a guy like Dubon can do. I don't see what's wrong with having both CR and MD if you're getting three years of Dubon straight up for one of Verdugo. I don't think HOU does it but maybe you can sweeten the deal with Reyes. Dubon fits as a nice platoon/defensive replacement with Valdez and played every position besides P and C last season. it’d be great to have 2023 Dubon. But what if we get 2021-2022 Dubon?
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 23, 2023 8:44:57 GMT -5
I don't know much about predicting the players, but I do know the opening day roster will win the Division, League Championship and World Series !! Happy Thanksgiving Everyone ! Hope you have a great holiday !
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,111
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Post by jimoh on Nov 23, 2023 10:39:03 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 23, 2023 12:32:50 GMT -5
I know there are defensive issues, but Vaughn Grissom would be somebody I'd like to see atop the Red Sox lineup. I believe in his bat and he is blocked by Albies and Arcia, not that Grissom is a good enough defensive SS. I'd suspect the Braves would want Duran although I'd rather deal Verdugo plus another piece. Of course that would enable the Sox to deal Valdez and Yorke in other deals.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 23, 2023 12:53:47 GMT -5
I’ll make a prediction today: Jarren Duran gets traded.
I think they keep Yoshida in left which gives them more flexibility on which righty bat they bring in for DH (Hoskins, Duvall, Turner are probably the most obvious candidates). With Yoshida in left I just don’t think Duran as CF is palatable, he made huge improvements but just isn’t good there. He could be a big piece in a deal for a pitcher though.
Bader, Kiermaier, Edman are all decent candidates for the CF role until Rafaela is ready.
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Post by ghostofjuanpena on Nov 23, 2023 13:06:19 GMT -5
I Say Duran and Verdugo are the two outfielders who go , we need righty bats at 2B and in LF, Yoshida needs to dh way more than he plays lf, I’d like to see Guriel Jr. be signed , one of the best defensive left fielders last year and a righty bat
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 23, 2023 15:45:29 GMT -5
I've always felt that when there's an outfielder with poor range (like Yoshida) then it's helpful to have an outfielder next to them, usually centerfielder, with superior range. Last year Duran was 4th in all of baseball in 'jump' and 5th in 'feet covered' (I suspect LF at Fenway is responsible for the discrepancy).
Despite the range, Duran was only average defensively (0 range OAA; -1 throwing OAA) while being slightly below average throwing (although arm strength was surprisingly solid).
Although an upgrade in centerfield defense would help the team, I'm just not sure how a switch from Duran to a player with equal, or worse, range would positively affect Yoshida. And a direct upgrade from a player who was 2nd on the team in fWAR last year won't be easy (although I can understand feeling he will be worse this year due to the high babip).
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Post by incandenza on Nov 23, 2023 15:53:44 GMT -5
I’ll make a prediction today: Jarren Duran gets traded. I think they keep Yoshida in left which gives them more flexibility on which righty bat they bring in for DH (Hoskins, Duvall, Turner are probably the most obvious candidates). With Yoshida in left I just don’t think Duran as CF is palatable, he made huge improvements but just isn’t good there. He could be a big piece in a deal for a pitcher though. Bader, Kiermaier, Edman are all decent candidates for the CF role until Rafaela is ready. I see the logic there. But at a certain point replacing guys on the 2023 team (Urias, Turner, Duran, Duvall) with guys who don't project to hit as well (Edman, Kiermaier, older version of Duvall) starts to take a toll on the offense.
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Post by blizzards39 on Nov 23, 2023 16:00:35 GMT -5
I Say Duran and Verdugo are the two outfielders who go , we need righty bats at 2B and in LF, Yoshida needs to dh way more than he plays lf, I’d like to see Guriel Jr. be signed , one of the best defensive left fielders last year and a righty bat Guriel is a terrible defender, nor middle of lineup bat. No use to sox. Much better to just have Duval on short deal. If we are trading players that are cost controlled it better be for elite talent.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 23, 2023 16:20:06 GMT -5
I've always felt that when there's an outfielder with poor range (like Yoshida) then it's helpful to have an outfielder next to them, usually centerfielder, with superior range. Last year Duran was 4th in all of baseball in 'jump' and 5th in 'feet covered' (I suspect LF at Fenway is responsible for the discrepancy). Despite the range, Duran was only average defensively (0 range OAA; -1 throwing OAA) while being slightly below average throwing (although arm strength was surprisingly solid). Although an upgrade in centerfield defense would help the team, I'm just not sure how a switch from Duran to a player with equal, or worse, range would positively affect Yoshida. And a direct upgrade from a player who was 2nd on the team in fWAR last year won't be easy (although I can understand feeling he will be worse this year due to the high babip). Duran was an average outfielder but one of the worst center fielders in baseball by range. Teams put plus outfielders there. If the Red Sox replace him it’ll almost certainly be with someone with better range. Plus based on his history I’m not sure Duran’s a good bet to improve, defensive stats take a while to stabilize and while he looked better this year I'm not totally sold he can keep up this trajectory.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 23, 2023 16:24:25 GMT -5
I’ll make a prediction today: Jarren Duran gets traded. I think they keep Yoshida in left which gives them more flexibility on which righty bat they bring in for DH (Hoskins, Duvall, Turner are probably the most obvious candidates). With Yoshida in left I just don’t think Duran as CF is palatable, he made huge improvements but just isn’t good there. He could be a big piece in a deal for a pitcher though. Bader, Kiermaier, Edman are all decent candidates for the CF role until Rafaela is ready. I see the logic there. But at a certain point replacing guys on the 2023 team (Urias, Turner, Duran, Duvall) with guys who don't project to hit as well (Edman, Kiermaier, older version of Duvall) starts to take a toll on the offense. Say you went Hoskins, Edman, Kiermaier for those slots I’d guess projection wise that’s neutral to maybe just a slight downgrade vs what Duran/Urias/Turner/Duvall will be, but the defensive improvement is huge. The defensive improvement is even bigger if you go Duvall or Gurriel instead of Hoskins and play Yoshida at DH more, but the offense drops a little more. Or you could go Drury instead of Edman and the offensive outlook is neutral to possible even better. I’m just of the mind that Duran basically can’t be your center fielder. You can put him in left and DH Yoshida, but it’s harder to build a good and more balanced offense that way.
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Post by ghostofjuanpena on Nov 23, 2023 18:38:25 GMT -5
I Don’t think Guriel is a terrible fielder , he ranked 3rd in defensive saves for a left fielder last year in all of baseball
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 23, 2023 19:29:43 GMT -5
I think you bet on Ceddanne as your 2025 starting CF and get a defensive stopgap for 2024. If you've read all 19 pages of this thread, you know what I think. If you haven't, it's Michael A. Taylor starting vs. LHP and serving as a defensive replacement every other game that's close. With any luck, Ceddanne is ready for prime time in the second half and provides great fill-in defense wherever it's needed.
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Post by ghostofjuanpena on Nov 23, 2023 20:01:48 GMT -5
Should be interesting who they get rid of , verdugo and ? Keep Abreu , I don’t know if Rafaella has enough seasoning at the plate
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 23, 2023 20:47:14 GMT -5
I don't see what's wrong with having both CR and MD if you're getting three years of Dubon straight up for one of Verdugo. I don't think HOU does it but maybe you can sweeten the deal with Reyes. Dubon fits as a nice platoon/defensive replacement with Valdez and played every position besides P and C last season. it’d be great to have 2023 Dubon. But what if we get 2021-2022 Dubon? I'd be fine with the 137 career OPS+ vs. LHP Dubon. A lot of people saying we need to add RHH, particularly at 2B and OF. Doesn't mean they need to be starters or hit RHP worth a lick.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 23, 2023 23:27:10 GMT -5
Should be interesting who they get rid of , verdugo and ? Keep Abreu , I don’t know if Rafaella has enough seasoning at the plate I personally doubt they will pencil in either Rafaela or Abreu as a starter. They’ll inevitably get their shots when injuries arise like Duran did last year, and whether or not they capitalize is up to them.
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Post by ghostofjuanpena on Nov 23, 2023 23:33:50 GMT -5
I think Aubreu showed enough in his skill set and his approach at the plate to start in right when verdugo eventually gets traded
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Post by keninten on Nov 24, 2023 0:15:38 GMT -5
I think Aubreu showed enough in his skill set and his approach at the plate to start in right when verdugo eventually gets traded He didn`t even get 100 PAs. I`m talking about Abreu, maybe there is another guy named Aubreu you are talking about.
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