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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 8, 2023 16:20:43 GMT -5
What could you possibly mean by this? Urias has a 107 wRC+ in his last 1200 PAs. Even just last year with the Red Sox he had a 98 wRC+, which was almost identical to Valdez (102), and better than Merrifield has done in any season since 2020. I'd grant that Urias' defense was kind of disappointing, but there's an odd thing where a large number of people seem to have decided that his 68 PAs last year where he was playing injured for the Brewers is the true reflection of his abilities and the other 95% of his career going back to when he was 23 are the anomaly.
I'm talking hitting for batting average, the hit tool. I'm not talking about the total offensive package including walks and power. Has Urias even managed to hit .250 in a season? That's what I was referring to. He can get away with hitting. 240 or thereabouts but he cant get away with hitting like he did last year. Mark Bellhorn was a lousy hitter but he had years where he was a good offensive player anyways. But when he stopped hitting almost altogether he couldn't keep his job. In 2021 the league batting average was .248 and Urias hit .249 so saying he never hit at the MLB level is not accurate even by this relatively meaningless definition of it.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 8, 2023 16:28:32 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Nov 8, 2023 17:26:04 GMT -5
Uh oh, is Breslow going to give Bellinger 12/264?? This certainly makes my Bellinger/Verdugo comparison apt...
On the Verdugo trade return: I just don't see how he moves the needle much on getting a "cost-controlled young starter." No one's giving that away for one year of Verdugo.
The logic of trading Verdugo continues to evade me a lot more than it seems to be evading everyone else...
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 8, 2023 17:31:34 GMT -5
Uh oh, is Breslow going to give Bellinger 12/264?? This certainly makes my Bellinger/Verdugo comparison apt...
On the Verdugo trade return: I just don't see how he moves the needle much on getting a "cost-controlled young starter." No one's giving that away for one year of Verdugo.
The logic of trading Verdugo continues to evade me a lot more than it seems to be evading everyone else...
I'm not for nor against the idea of dealing Verdugo. Depends on the return and what other moves are made to replace him. If the move would be to trade Verdugo and instantly sign bellinger then honestly I'd hate it immediately. I also agree I don't see how Verdugo brings back a cost controlled pitcher, certainly not on his own anyway.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 8, 2023 17:37:45 GMT -5
Uh oh, is Breslow going to give Bellinger 12/264?? This certainly makes my Bellinger/Verdugo comparison apt...
On the Verdugo trade return: I just don't see how he moves the needle much on getting a "cost-controlled young starter." No one's giving that away for one year of Verdugo.
The logic of trading Verdugo continues to evade me a lot more than it seems to be evading everyone else...
The logic of trading Verdugo, for me at least, is that he’s gonna make close to $10 million and it seems unlikely that he’s here beyond the season, and he’s a solid-but-unspectacular player. If the Sox want to add a big bat to the lineup, right field seems like a good place to do it. Obviously nobody is trading a controllable starter for Verdugo, but surely you see how he’s an attractive piece as part of a larger trade? Adding a ~2.5 WAR outfielder on a reasonable salary for next year sounds attractive to me. Is he getting you George Kirby? Of course not. But if the choice for the secondary piece in a George Kirby-esque deal is between a decent prospect or your starting right fielder for next year, I’d imagine any team that needs help in the outfield would be more interested in the latter. It’s not absolutely imperative that they move him or anything, but it seems like one of the more straightforward moves when you look at the bigger picture of the team. You trade him as part of a plan to improve the outfield, not just to be rid of him. If that doesn’t look like a feasible plan, then they should keep him.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 8, 2023 17:44:27 GMT -5
The logic of trading Verdugo continues to evade me a lot more than it seems to be evading everyone else...
Breslow keeps saying that he is leaning on people that have been here to evaluate the guys in the org and there's certainly a faction that hates Verdugo. With them being pretty open about shopping him, I'm not expecting him back at this point.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 8, 2023 17:47:29 GMT -5
Uh oh, is Breslow going to give Bellinger 12/264?? This certainly makes my Bellinger/Verdugo comparison apt...
On the Verdugo trade return: I just don't see how he moves the needle much on getting a "cost-controlled young starter." No one's giving that away for one year of Verdugo.
The logic of trading Verdugo continues to evade me a lot more than it seems to be evading everyone else...
The logic of trading Verdugo, for me at least, is that he’s gonna make close to $10 million and it seems unlikely that he’s here beyond the season, and he’s a solid-but-unspectacular player. If the Sox want to add a big bat to the lineup, right field seems like a good place to do it. Obviously nobody is trading a controllable starter for Verdugo, but surely you see how he’s an attractive piece as part of a larger trade? Adding a ~2.5 WAR outfielder on a reasonable salary for next year sounds attractive to me. Is he getting you George Kirby? Of course not. But if the choice for the secondary piece in a George Kirby-esque deal is between a decent prospect or your starting right fielder for next year, I’d imagine any team that needs help in the outfield would be more interested in the latter. See, this is the logic that seems to be landing for everyone else but not for me. - What does the fact that he'll be gone next year have to do with anything? They need a rightfielder for 2024. - He'll cost 9-something million dollars, yes, but he'll project to be worth almost twice that. He's still a bargain at that price. - He's solid-but-unspectacular, yes, but name me one FA outfielder who is anything more than that? I don't think there are any. (Even if you think Bellinger counts, I would *hate* signing him for even half of what MLBTR projects.) - "Adding a ~2.5 WAR outfielder on a reasonable salary for next year sounds attractive to me." Right - that's why he's valuable to the Red Sox too! With a few outfield prospects coming up but not quite ready, if they didn't already have Verdugo on the roster he seems like the kind of player they might be interested in trading for.
I'm not even saying I'm against it necessarily. It could make sense as part of a series of moves. But on the face of it, trading Verdugo seems to make their roster construction more difficult for next season rather than less.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 8, 2023 18:01:09 GMT -5
The logic to me in dealing Verdugo is that the manager doesn’t like him as he’s the only guy that ever faced any sort of accountability whatsoever despite the entire team lacking in focus and possibly effort
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 8, 2023 18:07:13 GMT -5
The logic of trading Verdugo, for me at least, is that he’s gonna make close to $10 million and it seems unlikely that he’s here beyond the season, and he’s a solid-but-unspectacular player. If the Sox want to add a big bat to the lineup, right field seems like a good place to do it. Obviously nobody is trading a controllable starter for Verdugo, but surely you see how he’s an attractive piece as part of a larger trade? Adding a ~2.5 WAR outfielder on a reasonable salary for next year sounds attractive to me. Is he getting you George Kirby? Of course not. But if the choice for the secondary piece in a George Kirby-esque deal is between a decent prospect or your starting right fielder for next year, I’d imagine any team that needs help in the outfield would be more interested in the latter. See, this is the logic that seems to be landing for everyone else but not for me. - What does the fact that he'll be gone next year have to do with anything? They need a rightfielder for 2024. - He'll cost 9-something million dollars, yes, but he'll project to be worth almost twice that. He's still a bargain at that price. - He's solid-but-unspectacular, yes, but name me one FA outfielder who is anything more than that? I don't think there are any. (Even if you think Bellinger counts, I would *hate* signing him for even half of what MLBTR projects.) - "Adding a ~2.5 WAR outfielder on a reasonable salary for next year sounds attractive to me." Right - that's why he's valuable to the Red Sox too! With a few outfield prospects coming up but not quite ready, if they didn't already have Verdugo on the roster he seems like the kind of player they might be interested in trading for.
I'm not even saying I'm against it necessarily. It could make sense as part of a series of moves. But on the face of it, trading Verdugo seems to make their roster construction more difficult for next season rather than less.
Well yeah, he’s an attractive trade piece because he’s a useful player to have around. Not really much point in trying to trade useless players. If you’re going to make a meaningful trade using major league pieces, they have to be valuable! I’m not sure why it has to be a free agent outfielder who replaces him. I’d imagine that most of the people who want to trade him are either high on Abreu (too risky for my taste, admittedly) or are going to bed with visions of Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis in their minds (guilty as charged). Like you said, it makes sense as part of a series of moves, not as a goal to be accomplished in and of itself. Verdugo was the 45th-best outfielder with at least 400 PAs last year by fWAR. It’s not like it’s a monumental task to find an improvement on the trade market.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 8, 2023 18:19:01 GMT -5
The logic of trading Verdugo, for me at least, is that he’s gonna make close to $10 million and it seems unlikely that he’s here beyond the season, and he’s a solid-but-unspectacular player. If the Sox want to add a big bat to the lineup, right field seems like a good place to do it. Obviously nobody is trading a controllable starter for Verdugo, but surely you see how he’s an attractive piece as part of a larger trade? Adding a ~2.5 WAR outfielder on a reasonable salary for next year sounds attractive to me. Is he getting you George Kirby? Of course not. But if the choice for the secondary piece in a George Kirby-esque deal is between a decent prospect or your starting right fielder for next year, I’d imagine any team that needs help in the outfield would be more interested in the latter. See, this is the logic that seems to be landing for everyone else but not for me. - What does the fact that he'll be gone next year have to do with anything? They need a rightfielder for 2024. - He'll cost 9-something million dollars, yes, but he'll project to be worth almost twice that. He's still a bargain at that price. - He's solid-but-unspectacular, yes, but name me one FA outfielder who is anything more than that? I don't think there are any. (Even if you think Bellinger counts, I would *hate* signing him for even half of what MLBTR projects.) - "Adding a ~2.5 WAR outfielder on a reasonable salary for next year sounds attractive to me." Right - that's why he's valuable to the Red Sox too! With a few outfield prospects coming up but not quite ready, if they didn't already have Verdugo on the roster he seems like the kind of player they might be interested in trading for.
I'm not even saying I'm against it necessarily. It could make sense as part of a series of moves. But on the face of it, trading Verdugo seems to make their roster construction more difficult for next season rather than less.
You map out valid reasons why he would help the Sox in 2024. But you also mention valid reasons as to why a team like the Marlins might want to trade a guy like Cabrera for him. Might also be a cheaper outfield replacement for Soto if the Padres are interested. Looking at what some of these pitchers might get on the open market this might make the most sense.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 8, 2023 18:24:31 GMT -5
Cabrera, based on Breslow’s stated interest in pitchers so far, is the opposite type of guy they’ll look to acquire
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 8, 2023 18:26:57 GMT -5
My main issue with dealing Verdugo is he was very good defensively in RF this year. It's imperative they upgrade their overall defense so trading what was their best defensive OFer and maybe defensive player may not be the best idea. If they do trade him they have to bring in someone who is either as good or at least close defensively.
Needless to say while I'd love to get Soto he has no business playing RF, certainly not in fenway. Bellinger would fill the defensive void but I have no appetite to sign him for some 200+ million dollar deal.
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Post by oleary25 on Nov 8, 2023 18:28:20 GMT -5
I don’t think he’ll get moved until the gold gloves comes out which would increase his value. I think what may come back would be a solid trade piece to help acquire you cost controlled pitching , or someone like Emerson Handcock the org may be down on.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 8, 2023 18:30:55 GMT -5
I don’t think he’ll get moved until the gold gloves comes out which would increase his value. I think what may come back would be a solid trade piece to help acquire you cost controlled pitching , or someone like Emerson Handcock the org may be down on. DM me if you want to make some bets on gold glove winners.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 8, 2023 18:32:11 GMT -5
I don’t think he’ll get moved until the gold gloves comes out which would increase his value. I think what may come back would be a solid trade piece to help acquire you cost controlled pitching , or someone like Emerson Handcock the org may be down on. No team is going to instantly value Verdugo more just because he theoretically won a gold glove. I don't think he's going to be traded particularly soon though since it's still very early in the offseason.
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 8, 2023 18:50:33 GMT -5
I’m all for trading Verdugo
Expiring contract, not in the future plans, clubhouse headache. So yes in a world that there are seasons beyond next year, there is plenty of logic in trading him away.
I have to qualms if the whole 2023 outfield was traded away in productive deals
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Post by Canseco on Nov 8, 2023 18:51:33 GMT -5
Names don’t come much more “New England” than Emerson Hancock.
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Post by dirtdog on Nov 8, 2023 19:00:34 GMT -5
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 8, 2023 19:04:56 GMT -5
My main issue with dealing Verdugo is he was very good defensively in RF this year. It's imperative they upgrade their overall defense so trading what was their best defensive OFer and maybe defensive player may not be the best idea. If they do trade him they have to bring in someone who is either as good or at least close defensively. Needless to say while I'd love to get Soto he has no business playing RF, certainly not in fenway. Bellinger would fill the defensive void but I have no appetite to sign him for some 200+ million dollar deal. I think the defensive issues are overstated, honestly. The biggest problem has already been solved. Kiké et al to Story at short is what, +20 runs? More? And I don’t have any metrics to back this up, but it sure felt like Story’s steadiness in the infield was a calming presence for everyone else. That may be mostly BS, but I think there’s at least a bit of truth to it. Verdugo was undoubtedly excellent in the field this year, but he doesn’t exactly have a sterling track record. Ideally you don’t replace him with a total negative defender, but I don’t think his defense specifically is a huge loss so long as another competent outfielder is brought in.
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Post by dirtdog on Nov 8, 2023 19:06:08 GMT -5
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 8, 2023 19:10:07 GMT -5
My main issue with dealing Verdugo is he was very good defensively in RF this year. It's imperative they upgrade their overall defense so trading what was their best defensive OFer and maybe defensive player may not be the best idea. If they do trade him they have to bring in someone who is either as good or at least close defensively. Needless to say while I'd love to get Soto he has no business playing RF, certainly not in fenway. Bellinger would fill the defensive void but I have no appetite to sign him for some 200+ million dollar deal. I think the defensive issues are overstated, honestly. The biggest problem has already been solved. Kiké et al to Story at short is what, +20 runs? More? And I don’t have any metrics to back this up, but it sure felt like Story’s steadiness in the infield was a calming presence for everyone else. That may be mostly BS, but I think there’s at least a bit of truth to it. Verdugo was undoubtedly excellent in the field this year, but he doesn’t exactly have a sterling track record. Ideally you don’t replace him with a total negative defender, but I don’t think his defense specifically is a huge loss so long as another competent outfielder is brought in. According to Fangraphs the sox were dead last in outs above average in the league at -50. The 2nd to last team was -36. A full year of story at SS should certainly help but I very much disagree that the defensive problems are overstated. To me it's a real concern and needs to be vastly improved in 2024 or they aren't going anywhere.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 8, 2023 19:24:26 GMT -5
My main issue with dealing Verdugo is he was very good defensively in RF this year. It's imperative they upgrade their overall defense so trading what was their best defensive OFer and maybe defensive player may not be the best idea. If they do trade him they have to bring in someone who is either as good or at least close defensively. Needless to say while I'd love to get Soto he has no business playing RF, certainly not in fenway. Bellinger would fill the defensive void but I have no appetite to sign him for some 200+ million dollar deal. I think the defensive issues are overstated, honestly. The biggest problem has already been solved. Kiké et al to Story at short is what, +20 runs? More? And I don’t have any metrics to back this up, but it sure felt like Story’s steadiness in the infield was a calming presence for everyone else. That may be mostly BS, but I think there’s at least a bit of truth to it. Verdugo was undoubtedly excellent in the field this year, but he doesn’t exactly have a sterling track record. Ideally you don’t replace him with a total negative defender, but I don’t think his defense specifically is a huge loss so long as another competent outfielder is brought in. Until August 1 the Red Sox were dead last in Fangraphs dWAR, 10% worse than 29th place. Afterwords they were 22nd. I think that’s more or less the Story difference. Fair to say the starting point might not be “worst defensive team in baseball by a mile” but it’s also not a *good* starting point.
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Post by kwodes on Nov 8, 2023 20:30:48 GMT -5
Could we see Tommy Edman as an option? Seems like a good fit, just don't know what he would cost to acquire.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 8, 2023 21:01:14 GMT -5
This thread has turned into a general free agency thread, which we already have here: forum.soxprospects.com/thread/7010/2024-free-agency. Don't want to have the same general conversation going on parallel in two different threads. Let's keep this to a thread about predicting the 2024 opening day roster and not the ongoing hot stove talk.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Nov 8, 2023 21:35:25 GMT -5
For everyone clamoring for Emerson Hancock, I watched him when he was at UGA and he was the best starter on that team since his freshman year (on a team with Cole Wilcox). He had easy mid 90s stuff and was that dominant starter you looked for when you needed a win.
He's floundered a bit with his walks since he got drafted by Seattle, but he's got Ace makeup.
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