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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 27, 2013 14:58:31 GMT -5
Could someone explain the Vernon Wells deal as it relates to the Yankees payroll tax. So they are picking up 13M in payroll, but only 1-2M will be counted against their 2014 payroll because Angels and Tor are paying more in 2014? Wouldn't this be deliberately manipulating the payroll tax and the commissioner's office has the right to overrule it? 12M due 1 year and 1M the next is extremely one sided and Miami Heat-esque. It upsets me because I am really rooting for Yankees to be over the 2014 payroll tax.
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Post by jmei on Mar 27, 2013 15:04:24 GMT -5
The Red Sox basically did the same thing when they signed Adrian Beltre and traded for Bill Hall (although both those loopholes were subsequently closed, I believe). CBA manipulation is certainly against the spirit of the rules, but where loopholes exist, they will be exploited.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 27, 2013 15:55:14 GMT -5
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Mar 28, 2013 7:50:59 GMT -5
Tom Gage ?@tom_Gage 13m No Rondon on #Tigers - does not make clubRetweeted by Jon Heyman
Very interesting...I suspect that Benoit or Coke may split the closer duties for a while, but perhaps they might be interested in Bailey?
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Post by raftsox on Mar 28, 2013 8:02:08 GMT -5
So, Fangraphs has recently run a series where they attempt to predict positional WAR, and thereby, team WAR for the upcoming season. There are some problems with the numbers, but I'll still post the results. Problems first: A replacement level team is expected to win about 47 games according to their methodology. However, if you use that number and the projected total team WAR you wind up with 24 teams winning 81 or more games. Therefore, Fangraphs has adjusted their replacement level wins to ~41; which results in only 2 teams winning 90 or more games. I disagree with this method; obviously there are flaws to all of this. For 1, they assume 700 at bats per position per team; in 2012 the league average at bats for a batter (very basic here) was 682. Ok, enough with the disclaimers, onto the somewhat inaccurate results. Due to the differences in calculations here, I will stick with rankings rather than projected wins. AL East | Rank | Yankees * | 1 | Blue Jays * | 2 | Rays * | 3 | Red Sox * | 4 | Orioles | 5 |
* = essential tie, 1.3 win difference between Yanks and Sox. AL Central | Rank | Tigers | 1 | White Sox | 2 | Royals | 3 | Indians | 4 | Twins | 5 |
The Tigers are the class of MLB and it's not close. AL West | Rank | Angels | 1 | Rangers | 2 | Athletics | 3 | Mariners | 4 | Astros | 5 |
Your AL playoff teams (as this suggests) are: Tigers, Angels, Rangers, Yankees and the Blue Jays. NL East | Rank | Nationals* | 1 | Braves* | 2 | Phillies | 3 | Mets | 4 | Marlins | 5 |
* = essential tie NL Central | Rank | Reds | 1 | Cardinals | 2 | Pirates # | 3 | Brewers | 4 | Cubs | 5 |
#should be their first season over .500 in how many decades? NL West | Rank | Dodgers | 1 | Diamondbacks | 2 | Giants | 3 | Rockies | 4 | Padres | 5 |
Your NL playoff teams are: Nationals, Braves, Reds, Dodgers with an extra fun, additional 1 game playoff between the Cardinals and the Diamondbacks!
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 28, 2013 12:29:14 GMT -5
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Post by justen on Mar 29, 2013 12:05:54 GMT -5
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 29, 2013 14:06:59 GMT -5
Verlander got 200 now it's being reported in multiple places that Buster Posey gets 167+ over 8/9 years. Free-agency is becoming more and more redundant better develop your own super stars.
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Post by curll on Mar 29, 2013 17:32:31 GMT -5
If Kershaw goes to FA, he might get $300M. Land snakes!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 29, 2013 21:27:09 GMT -5
And somewhere David Price is getting excited. He knows that with guys like Verlander and Hernandez and eventually Kershaw off the market, he's going to reach free agency and be the big prize for the Yankees at some point (or maybe the Dodgers if they're insistent that eveybody on their team must make at least $20 million/year.)
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Post by grandsalami on Mar 31, 2013 23:14:44 GMT -5
MT @ken_Rosenthal: Andrus, #Rangers close on 8-year deal for $120 million.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 31, 2013 23:48:50 GMT -5
Sooo JBJ is definitely signing an extension.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Apr 1, 2013 0:07:05 GMT -5
MT @ken_Rosenthal: Andrus, #Rangers close on 8-year deal for $120 million. Trade Profar and Olt for Stanton?
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Post by mainesox on Apr 1, 2013 0:14:20 GMT -5
MT @ken_Rosenthal: Andrus, #Rangers close on 8-year deal for $120 million. Trade Profar and Olt for Stanton? If I'm the Marlins I'm not sure if that's enough, but this is the Marlins we're talking about so...
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Apr 1, 2013 2:09:55 GMT -5
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Apr 1, 2013 6:56:47 GMT -5
I don't understand why the Rangers would over-pay for Andrus when Profar projects to be a much better, all-around player. Knowing Boras is Andrus' agent, you have to expect that there is some type of opt-out language. Perhaps they try to get Price for Profar, Beras (suspended until July 1 after lying about his age) and one or two pitching prospects?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 1, 2013 7:24:02 GMT -5
At first I didn't like the Andrus contract. But now, now having noticed that Dave Cameron has already written his "you might think this is a bad contract, but if you look at these completely unreliable defensive metrics, you'll realize..." piece on the deal, I absolutely despise it.
I dunno. Maybe Andrus has some power potential I'm not aware of? Otherwise it seems like we're talking about a player who in all likely hood has already peaked.
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Post by raftsox on Apr 1, 2013 8:00:32 GMT -5
At first I didn't like the Andrus contract. But now, now having noticed that Dave Cameron has already written his "you might think this is a bad contract, but if you look at these completely unreliable defensive metrics, you'll realize..." piece on the deal, I absolutely despise it. I dunno. Maybe Andrus has some power potential I'm not aware of? Otherwise it seems like we're talking about a player who in all likely hood has already peaked. Someone else from Fangraphs wrote an article about Andrus earlier in the off-season. He only has a few comparables; most flamed out and were backups by their late 20s. The only one that wasn't was Derek Jeter. Jon Daniels must have some sort of plan for Profar and Olt.
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Post by jmei on Apr 1, 2013 8:17:54 GMT -5
Now that we know the extension is on top of the two-year, $11m deal Andrus already had, making the total deal ten years, $131.275m, and likely contains out clauses that let Andrus opt out and hit the open market again, it's become an increasingly indefensible deal. Texas bears all the risk here, since if the market grows significantly or Andrus ups his game he'll just opt out whereas Texas is on the hook if he suffers a major injury or his performance otherwise declines or stagnates. For a player whose main assets are defense and baserunning, that's a hell of a lot of risk to bear for limited upside.
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Post by joshv02 on Apr 1, 2013 8:54:35 GMT -5
Agreed. The aging curve for defense is very likely a straight shot down -- and if not, its a cliff relatively early in a career. He brings other skills (solid walk rate, good bunting ability) and he is incredibly young (a decade long deal combination of contracts still only brings him to his age 34/35 season), but it seems like a ton of risk. I'd have cashed out - and they still can - but teams (and all businesses) have a tendency to become more and more risk averse as they win more. It is a hard trap to avoid.
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Post by jdb on Apr 1, 2013 9:23:19 GMT -5
Agree that this could open up a Profar trade. A package with him + for Price or Stanton makes a ton of sense. I know it's extremely rare for prospects to get trade but Profar for Oscar Taveras would help both clubs. I know neither would want to be on the wrong side of that one though.
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Post by elguapo on Apr 1, 2013 9:40:16 GMT -5
Will $15M really be that much 10 years from now? You never know.
If you think Andrus is a 4-win SS for the next 5 years, you're tacking on, let's say, 3x$20M. Plus 3x$15M as he declines. Then maybe he's a utility IF at 2x$7.5M. So maybe not that unreasonable, assuming I can add correctly.
In any case, Jon Daniels is one of the best out there and kneejerk bashing of a carefully considered move like this is probably not prudent.
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Post by joshv02 on Apr 1, 2013 10:33:22 GMT -5
I don't think anyone is "kneejerk bashing." People are looking at the deal and discussing it on a discussion board. But, let's move the discussion out of the realm of nit picking over words:
He was under contract for the next 2 years already, so this is an 8 year deal (ages 26-34) on top of his current two years left. So, the question is if he'll be a 4 win player for ages 26-29, a 3.5 win player from ages 30-32, and a 1.5 win player at ages 33-34?
That is about the stretch limit of my expectation of him. So, yes, its possible. I think it slightly (but not dramatically) unlikely, however. I do give Daniels the benefit of the doubt, but that only gets me to give him the tie. Andrus could grow into a more dynamic offensive player, however; he is well short of the average offensive peak. If that happens, then he can add value where otherwise he'll be loosing it. However, I think that unlikely - so my expectation is that he likely has peaked in value, or at least has come close to it, and he'll not continue an upwards path. Texas is basically taking the risk that he'll either improve in other areas or not lose value in the areas he currently has value in (and which generally do lose value).
OTOH, you are certainly right that Daniels has a much better idea about how $15mm will be worth in 5-10 years from now than I do.
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Post by elguapo on Apr 1, 2013 10:50:37 GMT -5
So, the question is if he'll be a 4 win player for ages 26-29, a 3.5 3 win player from ages 30-32, and a 1.5 win player at ages 33-34? That's about it - but adjusted for salary inflation, which historically has been substantial. Of course there's the catastrophic risk that he gets injured, but then there's the chance he goes to a 5-win level. Assuming there's an opt-out, you've locked in $15M for probably his most productive years, which should be a bargain - even if he opted out at age 30 or whatever, so what?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 1, 2013 13:01:51 GMT -5
Bryce. Harper.
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