Who Leaves the Rotation When Buchholz returns?

[Deleted]

Buchholz is due to return at the end of this month, leaving this team with 6 starting pitchers. The question is, who is out of the rotation? Lester and Lackey obviously stay, and the recently acquired Peavy isn't going anywhere either. That Leaves it down to Ryan Dempster and Felix Doubront.

Some points to remember:

Ryan Dempster
Salary: $13,250,000
2013: 6-8, 4.54 ERA, 127 IP, 22 starts, 5.77 innings/start
Since May 12: 4-5, 5.36 ERA, 84 IP, 15 starts, 5.6 innings/start

Felix Doubront
Salary: $518,500
2013: 7-5, 3.77 ERA, 117 IP, 19 starts (1 relief apperance), 5.88 innings/start
Since May 12: 4-4, 2.76 ERA, 84 2/3 IP, 14 starts, 6.04 innings/start

[knuckledown]

The way the schedule is in September they're basically only playing six days a week, so I would not be surprised to see that changes the rotation also. Could be more rest for everybody, could be something else, but I'd be interested to hear what people thought the strategy will be.

[orcoaster]

Haven't they said with the addition of Peavy that they will work Workman in giving everyone some extra rest? When/if Buch comes back they may do the same thing, sending Workman to the pen in the process.

Otherwise Dempster is the obvious choice because he's been the least effective starter (although not terrible imo) and has bullpen experience.

[Deleted]

In addition to Dempster, Lester has been kind of ineffective as well. Is there any chance the Sox DO NOT exercise his club option after this year?

[ewan25]

they could not exercise his option then offer him a QO and get the pick right?

[Don Caballero]

Never has a question been more rhetorical.

[jdb]

I don't think there's any chance Lester's option isn't picked up. If they don't want him they'll trade him and try to fill holes in the lineup.

[xxdamgoodxx]

What's wrong with Lester? He went 7 scoreless with just his fastball and his change-up and now he can't get out of the 5th. I tip my cap to the D-backs because they hit good pitches but man...

[GyIantosca]

Dempster no questions asked. I hope they can find a trade partner in the offseason. At least he is tied up for just one season. If you look the whole roster is pretty much between 1to 3 years.

[donzimmerko]

First of all widewordofsport, can you please spell the mans name right. It is DoubrOnt, not Doubrant.

It is a good question to pose, I just think you have the wrong 2 guys here to choose from as I think Lester needs to get more days off. I don't understand how he goes 7+ of shut out baseball against the O's, and then give up 11 hits, and 6 runs to the D'Backs. I am not taking anything away from the D'Backs, but Jon is suppose to be a lock down picture, and you would hope that after having a rough first inning he would figure it out and get back to form like veteran pitchers are supposed to be able to do.. Although he didn't walk anybody all game, he was all over the place, which is why he got hit as he was forced to come right over the plate as he couldn't locate any of his pitches.

With that said him and Dempster have been the worst in my eyes. They are very inconsistent, and when they are off, boy is it bad. They can't seem to get anybody out, and they can't stop the bleeding either. Doubront has been able to limit his bad innings, which is something we need down the stretch. We can't be bringing Thornton in, in the 6th inning every time Leters mind is in left field.

I am not saying take Lester out, but they need to do something to help clear his mind. The extra days off after the break seemed to help, but he's right back to where he has been over the last two years; incredibly inconsistent, and unreliable.

Dempster goes imo.

Also to all of the stat lovers, I don't bring any stats to the table because I watch every single game which makes it not hard to tell who needs to go.

[xxdamgoodxx]

Lester, to me, looks like a pitcher that is grappling with the fact that he can't pack the same heat as he could earlier in his career. I think that if we could get Lee, he could be a mentor to Lester and teach him how to pitch without blow-by velocity. How much of a trade market is there for Lester anyways? I'm sure that he would help most staffs, but he isn't pitching to as well as his pure stuff would indicate he is capable.

[Deleted]

I don't think Lester has much velocity. I think his problem is that he has lost command/movement on his cutter. His cutter used to be among the more effective pitches in baseball. He used to throw it a lot. Yet, when he loses command, movement, or velocity on his cutter, he often throws it as much as he did before. But instead of being effective, it gets pounded. The start before his last one he did very well, because he did not throw the cutter, mostly fastball, change-up, and curveball. Maybe until he can figure out his cutter, he shouldn't throw it anymore.

[jmei]

Lester didn't throw the cutter much last night and hasn't thrown it much at all the past three or four starts. The question now is whether he can succeed once the league adjusts to the fact that he's a fastball/changeup/curveball pitcher. Without the cutter, he lacks a pitch that he can go inside to righties/outside to lefties on consistently, and he's never had great command of his four-seamer or his secondary stuff. We'll see if he can adjust.

PS: I don't think he pitched terribly last night, with the exception of a few pitches (i.e., the fastball to Goldschmidt). The Diamondbacks put some good swings on some decent pitches (for instance, a few of the hits in Lester's last inning were golfed into the gap for doubles). Let's see how he bounces back before we bury him.

[donzimmerko]

Did you watch the game? He probably threw 10% first pitch strikes, and was consistently in 2-0, 1-0 counts. You can't be an effective pitcher like that, especially against a solid offensive teams such as the D-Back's. I am not taking anything away from Arizona, in any way, they did put good swings on the balls Lester was able to get across the plate, but when Lester puts him self in that position all night, of course the other team is going to put swings on the ball because Lester has to come into the zone. This is when Lester is at his worst, and he has been Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde all year in this manner.

He did manage to throw 67 strikes out of 102 pitches, but it seems like all of those balls came early in the counts, he can't afford to pitch like that.

Anyways. I still say Dempster has to go. Bottom line.

[jmei]

I just counted- Lester threw 15 first-pitch strikes out of 24 batters faced. He had some trouble in the third and fifth innings with getting strike one, but was consistently getting it the rest if the game. So yeah, you're wrong.

[donzimmerko]

My apologies. It felt like he was always behind. Maybe he threw first pitch strikes a lot of the time and followed it up with 2 balls? Shall we go through and analyze the entire game? Either way 6 earned runs in 4.1 ip, 11 hits is not pitching well. Sorry, I just don't agree. I watched the entire game and he was all over the place. We can agree to disagree.

[Chris Hatfield]

See, now you had to go and make me all curious. Counts in the game:

0-0: 24
1-0: 9
2-0: 4
3-0: 0
0-1: 13
1-1: 9
2-1: 7
3-1: 1
0-2: 5
1-2: 8
2-2: 9
3-2: 2

So I'm not really seeing "all over the place" myself. He had more 1-2 counts than 2-1 counts. And in case we want to look at real data, here's the chart:

[donzimmerko]

Haha, ok you guys win. *tips cap*. I will hesitate posting based on my presumed view of the game, it was frustrating to say the least. He seems to be having trouble with his cutter though.

[donzimmerko]

What are those numbers you listed? Were those all of the batters he faced? There are a number of hitters counts there, so I I don't think that your argument takes away from the fact that he still put himself in bad counts many times throughout the game. Either way, he has to figure out his overall inconsistencies before September.

[jmei]

I mean, he obviously gave up a lot of hits and runs, but I don't think he was particularly wild or in hitter's counts all day. Rather, he was just hittable and the Diamondbacks squared up quite a few of his offerings and drove them (for instance, Lester only got two ground ball outs). There are, however, reasons to be optimistic-- his 6:0 K/BB ratio was excellent, he got 11 swinging strikes, and despite the six runs given up, he only gave up one home run. To me, he's looked a lot better ever since he was finally convinced to scrap the cutter, and I think he'll be better going forward than he was in June and July.