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Jacoby Ellsbury nearing 7 yr/$153mm deal w/MFY
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 3, 2013 14:58:30 GMT -5
The larger point is that Yankee stadium baseball capacity is 50,291 seats, many of which are absolutely the most expensive in baseball history, and they want to maximize revenue from those seating opportunities. And the continuing value of the franchise is very important as well as the media ratings ...etc. These are all huge factors in their business model. There is tremendous incentive for them to put a winning product on the field every year as was clearly exemplified last year when they went to such lengths to do bad deals even just to get some success on the field. It is extremely important for them to stay in contention every year. When you run a big company you also have big infrastructure costs. You find yourself making decisions based upon the need to keep the revenue coming in to fund those costs. It's inefficient to swing back and forth cutting and growing with wide swings. A smoother path is to feed the beast sometimes even when it is difficult to do short term.
They have said they want to get under the luxury tax guidelines and probably will do so this year considering how often they have said that is their goal. But they also will want a winning team for sure and long term a player like Ellsbury helps them a lot and might be one of their better FA values. I'm just saying if I had to pick one team for Ellsbury, it probably would be the Yanks even though I do understand and give credence to the Redsox and even started a thread about that exact contingency a couple months ago. The Redsox may well sign Ellsbury again but he makes sense for the Yankees also in many ways considering he is optimized more for their ballpark, not ours. He is a significant fan draw and they are potentially losing 4 starting level outfielders within the next 12 months time frame. And they are willing to do long term deals with premium players.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 3, 2013 15:02:39 GMT -5
Those empty seats are sold. This. I know the law firm I worked at (not even a terribly large one for NYC) has 4 pretty great season tickets four rows up behind the first-base dugout that chronically go unused on weeknights. Huh. K then. There was a time when they were having trouble selling those, right? I'm not going nuts?
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 3, 2013 15:09:03 GMT -5
Yankee fans complain about that all the time, I try to listen to the Mike Francesa show when I want to hear crazy Yankees fans, but actually selling the seats hasn't been an issue, plenty of companies to buy them in NY, but the way it looks on T.V has been the trouble.
They were trying to come up with a solution but nothing has happen.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 3, 2013 15:37:44 GMT -5
Yankee fans complain about that all the time, I try to listen to the Mike Francesa show when I want to hear crazy Yankees fans, but actually selling the seats hasn't been an issue, plenty of companies to buy them in NY, but the way it looks on T.V has been the trouble. They were trying to come up with a solution but nothing has happen. Gotcha. Thanks.
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Post by ray88h66 on Nov 3, 2013 16:34:49 GMT -5
I'm guessing Sea. is the next home for Ellsbury. On the what's he thinking stuff, I don't know and none of the amateur head shrinkers do either.
It's off topic, but since you guys are talking about it, the Twins have the same problem as the Yanks with the high price seats. They are sold but people stay home or hang out in a really cool fan cave below field level. Thanks to my wife's boss I got to enjoy it one game. Free food, booze , and climate controlled. The walls are basically TV screens.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 3, 2013 22:49:55 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 5, 2013 10:48:37 GMT -5
Seattle needs to build a team around the sort of players they've finally started bringing up. The park doesn't favor pure big power hitters, the all-or-nothing guys. It's not that you can't hit HRs, but it's so dependent on where the ball goes and what time of day it is that they needed to factor all that into their recruitment. What they need, and have needed since they moved to Safeco, is a lineup that plays good defense, one with good baserunning skills, and better than average contact rates, and with enough power to keep everyone honest. That's what they're finally building and Ellsbury is cut right from that mold. Add to that the exceptional young pitching talent and there may finally be something there. It's a tough division even with a dysfunctional Angels team. Oakland is just flat-out difficult, and Texas has the cash they need to make it rough on everyone else. But I do think the Mariners are, finally, poised to compete. They also have the money to make it happen, that's if Boras has marching orders that don't include squeezing every last dollar out of the market. Let's see if it all comes together for Ellsbury and Seattle. Chris hints at a big truth: the clock is ticking on Jack Z. The more I think about Seattle as a possible destination, the more I have to admit that it can be sold to him psychologically, and is hence a potentially appealing destination. (Keep in mind here that I'm not pretending to know anything about Jacoby Ellsbury's personality or desires. My assertion that he will place a higher priority on playing for a contender and in a good clubhouse than the average free agent is based on general human psychology. I don't begin to pretend to know whether this effect will be very small with him, compared to the average person, or very large, or anywhere in between -- just that there will be some such effect.) Human brains work by narratives, by stories, and the narrative where you go someplace and be the key person in a turn for the good is a very appealing one. The Mariners can honestly tell Ellsbury that they have a boatload of young talent and front-line starting pitching, and that they want him to be the key guy who finally helps bring a championship to Seattle, and be the hero, and reap all the happiness that comes with that. And just to prove how much we think of you, here's a deal for $xxM ($20M? $30M?) more than those less-than-fully grateful Sox are offering. Now, I have no idea how good Ben Cherington is at making appeals to psychology. But there's no way he should let Jack Z make that pitch without countering it devastatingly. It goes something like this: "Well, the Mariners were on the verge of contending a few years ago, and they gave a big contract to a guy to come and take them to the top of the mountain. From a divisional rival, no less! Chone Figgins. How did that work out? Jacoby, this is just a terrible ballpark to hit in. It's not just that the ball doesn't carry there; it's got a terrible hitting background, boosting strikeouts and suppressing walks, and it suppresses batting average on balls in play as much as it does HR. You've seen how good Adrian Beltre was as soon as he got out of there, and ditto for Mike Carp. It seems to even end up adversely affecting how guys hit on the road, probably because you can't help making unconscious adjustments while you're at home, and they carry over. So you're going to go there with all the pressure of being the guy to take them over the top and into the post-season, the pressure of being the Main Man, but there's no way to go there and not be perceived as a hitting disappointment. It's just not possible. Now, we're not saying you're going to let that get to your head and then get your swing all messed up, as Figgins did. We have no doubt that you'll give them the best possible performance, under those awful conditions. But don't kid yourself into thinking it will be either easy or fun, or that you won't be viewed as at least somewhat of a disappointment who's not earning his big paycheck. So, we've offered you a contract which we know is fair and generous, and will have you earning more money than you could reasonably spend, and they've offered you one paying $XXM more -- and don't think that means they like you more than we do; it simply means that they need you worse, and it's money they won't be able to spend on players to surround you and help build a championship. So one choice you can make is to take our contract and, in the press conference where we tell Red Sox Nation that you are staying on board, you can honestly report that you turned down quite a bit more money to stay here. And while that will piss off the Player's Union a bit, I think they'll understand that you are returning to an essentially unique situation given the positives we have here. And there is no underestimating how much of a hero that will make you to, not just Red Sox fans, but to the whole world. The perception that ball players are greedy, that they all want to sell themselves to the highest bidder -- it's unfair, but it's widespread. You can tell the world that you valued the friendship of your teammates, and the certainty of contending for the World Series every year of the contract, more than the extra XX million dollars. And you will be a freaking national role model for someone who has their priorities straight. So it's a comfortable choice and, yes, you'll be just as much set for life with this contract as with theirs. Or you can take their contract and put all that pressure on yourself. Now, maybe that's something you relish, in which case, good luck. I do know that psychologists have verified again and again that, past a certain point, making more money, in and of itself, doesn't make you any happier. Unless, by the way, you give it away, and you know that the opportunities to do charitable work in this city are unparalleled. So, you have to ask yourself, which will make you happier? I mean, really, one way of looking at the extra XX million they're offering is they know you'll be happier here, so they have to offer you more money. It's XX million dollars of unhappiness compensation, relatively speaking. Yes, there's a chance that you go to Seattle, and you withstand all the pressure, and you weather the criticism that will inevitably come when your offensive numbers go down, and you eventually lead them to a World Series championship. And if that happens, it will feel awfully good. There's no denying that. But you have to ask yourself what the odds are. So, do you feel lucky, punk?" Well, maybe not the last part. BTW, I obviously don't know how close Jacoby was to Adrian Beltre (except for that one time). But it's true that the Sox wanted Beltre real bad the last time they beat the Cardinals for a title, and he went with the Mariners instead. The Sox may have even offered him more money, but they wanted him to play SS for a year (until Bill Muller's contract was up), and that may have weighed against them. So they may be able to tell Jacoby to call Adrian and see if he regrets having signed with the Mariners instead of the Sox. Now, if the Cardinals offer him $20M or more, this is what Ben should say: "Thanks. It was a pleasure having you here, and we expect to see you soon in the Series."
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 5, 2013 11:04:32 GMT -5
I've never had it happen to me so this is pure speculation, but I'd think when you have millions of extra dollars sitting in front of you it can cloud your judgment a bit. Seattle may very well be his destination, but I would only think he'd get the contract it takes from them if they were committed to greatly increasing pay roll in the future. If that's the case, then it's a fairly easy sell to convince a guy who wants the extra money that you'll be a contender, especially with all the young talent they have. The question remains, while it's a nice story does it really make sense for Seattle to dish out that kind of dough for Ellsbury. King Felix averages about 24M per season. For Seattle to sign him you have to assume about 22M annually - give or take . That's 46M for 2 players. Highest payroll the team has had ever is 118M. Are they going to tie up about 40% of their pay roll in King Felix and Jacoby Ellsbury. Is Jacoby a player anyone would want to rely on for that much of their payroll? Isn't this a team full of holes, not just a piece or two away? I understand the Mariners spending money, but that's just the wrong money to spend in my opinion. Does the player fit really well? Absolutely but not for the money. It's basically guaranteeing they won't have funds to fill out a competitive roster unless they are willing to go places with their payroll they never have before.
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 6, 2013 13:58:17 GMT -5
He will sign with Washington (which I think is a great fit for him) or he will be back in Boston. Back in Boston I hope
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Post by Guidas on Nov 6, 2013 16:59:01 GMT -5
I've never had it happen to me so this is pure speculation, but I'd think when you have millions of extra dollars sitting in front of you it can cloud your judgment a bit. Seattle may very well be his destination, but I would only think he'd get the contract it takes from them if they were committed to greatly increasing pay roll in the future. If that's the case, then it's a fairly easy sell to convince a guy who wants the extra money that you'll be a contender, especially with all the young talent they have. The question remains, while it's a nice story does it really make sense for Seattle to dish out that kind of dough for Ellsbury. King Felix averages about 24M per season. For Seattle to sign him you have to assume about 22M annually - give or take . That's 46M for 2 players. Highest payroll the team has had ever is 118M. Are they going to tie up about 40% of their pay roll in King Felix and Jacoby Ellsbury. Is Jacoby a player anyone would want to rely on for that much of their payroll? Isn't this a team full of holes, not just a piece or two away? I understand the Mariners spending money, but that's just the wrong money to spend in my opinion. Does the player fit really well? Absolutely but not for the money. It's basically guaranteeing they won't have funds to fill out a competitive roster unless they are willing to go places with their payroll they never have before. And really, if you're willing to go $22M a year on Ellsbury then why not go all in and instead pay $25-26M a year for Cano and get the pop and the star value? Cano would legitimize Seattle more for other free agents than Ells, as he's the biggest dog on the market and a better player - and apparently that's been part of the problem in the Emerald City is no one wants to sign there. If I am Jack Z and going to put most of the cash in one basket, it better be the best basket available. I still wonder if the new ownership out there is behind a spending spree. For all we know they may well be preparing to sell and assessing assets to debt ratios.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 6, 2013 17:06:12 GMT -5
@ken_Rosenthal: Clarification on something I reported earlier. #Mariners want Ellsbury or Choo plus starting pitcher. Not on Napoli, but will seek RH bat.
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Post by orcoaster on Nov 6, 2013 22:20:13 GMT -5
All due respect to ericvan as I am not his sabermetric equal, but I don't see how JE bites at that appeal.
A player hires SBoras for one thing and one thing only, and it's not rings. It's money. JE is not coming to Boston because it will be easier to win more championships or to donate more money. He will go wherever the biggest paycheck leads him. True, Jason Varitek hired Boras with instructions to get him the best possible deal to return to Boston, but I see not so much as a hint of that kind of loyalty on Ellsbury's part. It appears to me that he's "all in" if you know what I mean, regardless of how human brains may or may not work.
That said, I'm truly at a loss to explain why Jacoby's departure from the Red Sox would be a grave loss. Surely he is a great player, but I don't see the predicted dropoff between him and Jackie Bradley Jr. JBJ is a better defender -- much stronger arm and better routes. JBJ has better plate discipline -- a much better walk rate than Ellsbury and a higher P/PA. His HR pct and ISO are higher than Ellsbury's as well. True, JBJ doesn't steal as many bases, but since when has stolen bases become a prized commodity among sabermatricians? JBJ is an adequate base stealer (a la Pedroia or Victorino) and an excellent baserunner, which is after all more important.
In sum while I acknowledge, applaud, and admire the attributes of Jacoby Ellsbury as a ballplayer, I don't see the upside in signing Ellsbury given that the Red Sox have JBJ waiting in wings. How is Jacoby worth the exorbitant cost? I don't see it.
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see JBJ perform as JE's equal much sooner than many might expect, making the premium to upgrade to JE extremely suspect.
If we could be assured that we were bidding for the 2011 Ellsbury, my opinion would be different. That's an MVP player. But I don't think anyone believes that is what you're buying for the next seven years. Even Seattle.
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Post by jmei on Nov 6, 2013 23:00:45 GMT -5
Well, for one thing, you can't compare Bradley's AAA line to Ellsbury's major league line. Very, very few hitters can match their minor league production in the majors. For another, Bradley's probably going to strike out twice as often as Ellsbury and hit for a much lower average, which more than makes up for Bradley's likely higher walk rate and his possibly higher ISO. Finally, sabermetricians certainly value stolen bases, especially when they're both high volume (52 SBs in 2013) and high efficiency (92.9% success rate). Expecting Bradley to replace Ellsbury's production in his rookie season is setting expectations way, way too high-- if he comes close, it will have been a smashing success of a season.
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Post by bsout2 on Nov 6, 2013 23:13:40 GMT -5
Um, there is a lot of weird talk in this thread (aka over analyzation). Jacoby is going to look at how much is the team offering, cost of living, quality of life, and applicable sales/income tax.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Nov 6, 2013 23:28:37 GMT -5
I've never had it happen to me so this is pure speculation, but I'd think when you have millions of extra dollars sitting in front of you it can cloud your judgment a bit. Seattle may very well be his destination, but I would only think he'd get the contract it takes from them if they were committed to greatly increasing pay roll in the future. If that's the case, then it's a fairly easy sell to convince a guy who wants the extra money that you'll be a contender, especially with all the young talent they have. The question remains, while it's a nice story does it really make sense for Seattle to dish out that kind of dough for Ellsbury. King Felix averages about 24M per season. For Seattle to sign him you have to assume about 22M annually - give or take . That's 46M for 2 players. Highest payroll the team has had ever is 118M. Are they going to tie up about 40% of their pay roll in King Felix and Jacoby Ellsbury. Is Jacoby a player anyone would want to rely on for that much of their payroll? Isn't this a team full of holes, not just a piece or two away? I understand the Mariners spending money, but that's just the wrong money to spend in my opinion. Does the player fit really well? Absolutely but not for the money. It's basically guaranteeing they won't have funds to fill out a competitive roster unless they are willing to go places with their payroll they never have before. They are putting together a pretty solid rotation and farm system and the new MLB TV deal kicks in soon. Jack Z needs to start turning it around or he's toast, his job is on the line. Not sure there are many better options out there for Jack than going for a premium free agent and hoping the kids pan out.
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Post by orcoaster on Nov 7, 2013 4:41:40 GMT -5
Well, for one thing, you can't compare Bradley's AAA line to Ellsbury's major league line. Very, very few hitters can match their minor league production in the majors. For another, Bradley's probably going to strike out twice as often as Ellsbury and hit for a much lower average, which more than makes up for Bradley's likely higher walk rate and his possibly higher ISO. Finally, sabermetricians certainly value stolen bases, especially when they're both high volume (52 SBs in 2013) and high efficiency (92.9% success rate). Expecting Bradley to replace Ellsbury's production in his rookie season is setting expectations way, way too high-- if he comes close, it will have been a smashing success of a season. No, you can't compare Bradley's AAA line with Ellsbury's major league line, but a AAA line can be highly predictive of mlb performance. The last several Red Sox minor league regulars to make it in the big leagues -- Moss, Reddick, Lowrie, Youkilis, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Middlebrooks, Iglesias -- all exhibited performances early in their careers similar to their AAA lines. If Bradley makes it as an mlb regular, granted not a guarantee at this point, we can legitimately anticipate he would achieve something approximate to his 275/374/469/842 Pawtucket line. It's not outrageous to expect Bradley to put up something like 260/350/440/790 in 2013. (I'd bet most on this board would expect Xander Bogaerts to match or better his 284/369/453/822 Pawtucket line next season.) Ellsbury's OPS last year was 781. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see JBJ achieve that mark in his rookie season with better defense to boot. Don't get me wrong, Ellsbury is a fine player. I just think we have a more than capable replacement ready to take over. I don't see the need to break the bank to keep Ells. And I don't think it will hurt the team much, if at all, to play Bradley instead.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 7, 2013 6:53:54 GMT -5
All due respect to ericvan as I am not his sabermetric equal, but I don't see how JE bites at that appeal. A player hires SBoras for one thing and one thing only, and it's not rings. It's money. JE is not coming to Boston because it will be easier to win more championships or to donate more money. He will go wherever the biggest paycheck leads him. True, Jason Varitek hired Boras with instructions to get him the best possible deal to return to Boston, but I see not so much as a hint of that kind of loyalty on Ellsbury's part. It appears to me that he's "all in" if you know what I mean, regardless of how human brains may or may not work. The meme that all Boras clients go to the highest bidder has been exploded over and over again in this thread. With Boras as his agent, Ellsbury could end up re-signing here on a contract that's $20M higher than it would have been had he had someone not as good representing him. You sign on with Boras because he promises to get you the best possible contract. But a player determines what that means, and the notion that it's ever only money, for any human being, is patently absurd. Maybe you don't have any friends who are highly skilled, and work in fields where the paychecks are warm and toasty, or maybe, if you do, you've never followed along with them on a job search. One of my best friends is an MIT grad who makes 6 figures as a user interface expert, and she just settled on a new employer. The main things she talked about during the job search were things like corporate culture, ease of commute, and the specific job they wanted her to do, in terms of challenge and interest versus pressure and potential frustration: she didn't want to go into a broken situation without knowing that the corporate culture would allow her to fix it. Money got mentioned, but it was generally the last thing, because if you've been making 6 figures for a while, it's not a big worry.
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Post by godot on Nov 7, 2013 15:10:54 GMT -5
Interesting, Pedroia reported as saying he will try and convince Ellsbury to stay in Boston.
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Post by chrischeetham on Nov 12, 2013 23:43:39 GMT -5
I want him to stay in Boston. But im realizing he is most likely getting out. My guess is Texas or Seattle. He may be able to get his pop back in Texas and hit 30hrs again. He would benefit being a lefty from the jet stream out in The ballpark in Arlington.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 13, 2013 16:10:59 GMT -5
Rumors don't mean a lot, but word is Seattle has no interest in Jacoby. If that is true, and LAD, LAA, SFO, PHI and DET are all out of the mix, then it's not that unlikely that he returns to Boston on a 5 year deal at around 100M. The only ways he's not back in Boston in my opinion are:
1. If he gets 6 + years
2. He takes a long time to sign. (BC will move on fairly quickly and once he does, I don't think they'll sign him even if it's at the terms they wanted to begin with)
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Post by p23w on Nov 13, 2013 20:11:00 GMT -5
Rumors don't mean a lot, but word is Seattle has no interest in Jacoby. If that is true, and LAD, LAA, SFO, PHI and DET are all out of the mix, then it's not that unlikely that he returns to Boston on a 5 year deal at around 100M. The only ways he's not back in Boston in my opinion are: 1. If he gets 6 + years 2. He takes a long time to sign. (BC will move on fairly quickly and once he does, I don't think they'll sign him even if it's at the terms they wanted to begin with) I would go as far as "Werth" money. 6 years plus an option totaling $126M.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Nov 13, 2013 20:33:39 GMT -5
Rumors don't mean a lot, but word is Seattle has no interest in Jacoby. If that is true, and LAD, LAA, SFO, PHI and DET are all out of the mix, then it's not that unlikely that he returns to Boston on a 5 year deal at around 100M. The only ways he's not back in Boston in my opinion are: 1. If he gets 6 + years 2. He takes a long time to sign. (BC will move on fairly quickly and once he does, I don't think they'll sign him even if it's at the terms they wanted to begin with) Ellsbury has already turned down offers larger than that.
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Post by Gwell55 on Nov 13, 2013 21:12:15 GMT -5
Rumors don't mean a lot, but word is Seattle has no interest in Jacoby. If that is true, and LAD, LAA, SFO, PHI and DET are all out of the mix, then it's not that unlikely that he returns to Boston on a 5 year deal at around 100M. The only ways he's not back in Boston in my opinion are: 1. If he gets 6 + years 2. He takes a long time to sign. (BC will move on fairly quickly and once he does, I don't think they'll sign him even if it's at the terms they wanted to begin with) Ellsbury has already turned down offers larger than that. Who else has offered him more than 5 100+ the sox may have offered prior? Personally, I don't think Seattle is going to get him. I also believe that boras want's more and thus he is inflating for all the writers to print about what he will get. That 148 Crawford like deal is Boras's baby not any GM that we know of yet. From what the rumors out of the GM meetings that is a lot more than they (Gms) see him going for from what I have read so far. My believe is that Boston could still get him for 110 with an option or maybe even without one (note that is more annual value than what Crawford got but less years). If the Yankees want to share in that revenue return deal this year they won't be going strong after him. That leaves a crap shoot with Boston favored to me.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 14, 2013 13:33:09 GMT -5
I'm going to guess Ellsbury winds up with the Rangers, although I think the Cubs will be strongly in on the bidding. I do think he'll get six year and about $132 million.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 14, 2013 13:35:08 GMT -5
Ellsbury has already turned down offers larger than that. Please provide a source of this information or revise it to note that this is your opinion only. Otherwise, I will delete this. I think he's right in the mean - Olney reported a week or so ago that the Sox offered Ells $100 for 6 years the off-season after his should've been MVP season. It was turned down. I don't have the link handy but I do recall reading it.
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