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Jacoby Ellsbury nearing 7 yr/$153mm deal w/MFY
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Post by chud on Nov 2, 2013 9:35:44 GMT -5
Boras has already come out and made huge comps for Jacoby and noted the number of teams interested in him. Boras works for Ellsbury but, if Ellsbury had told him only to seek a deal with the Red Sox, he would not be taking this public approach. He is going to the highest bidder, period, and wishcasting is not going to change that fact. You could absolutely be correct. My point wasn't to say what was going into this negotiation at all...but merely to say that just because Boras is the agent doesn't necessarily mean that the only important thing to the player is every last dollar. People make work related decisions in life based on a lot of factors that we could never pretend to know...nor could I possibly predict what ellsbury is going to make his decision based upon...and nor am i "wishcasting", as in actuality i'm indifferent to ellsbury staying...I'm more confident in the fact that if the sox let him walk, they'll do so knowing that the money they don't spend on him will be creatively spent in a way that improves the team over signing just him with that money...that above all things makes me happy...the confidence in the front office to make the best decisions possible despite how they may turn out...my last point, in explaining the varitek stance, that was specific to varitek and has nothing to do w/ ellsbury...of course boras will make his stance to drum up as much money for his client as possible...as he did in public during those same negotiations involving varitek...but in reality we don't know what's going on behind the scenes between what ellsbury's said to dictate boras'actions...but we do know that it just doesn't necessarily mean it's all about getting every last dollar...and we also know, that doesn't mean he's going to stay either...no worries either way, but wanted to clarify my post...personally i think he's going to leave, but like i said earlier, what the hell do i really know about it, nothing!
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 2, 2013 9:57:57 GMT -5
The thing is, during the offseason, pretty much every major league team (except the Astros and a handful of others) can and should be able to make an argument to a free agent that they can be contenders the following year. The Mariners can argue that they have frontline pitching (Felix, Iwakuma, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton), exciting young position players (Kyle Seager, Brad Miller, Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin, Mike Zunino), and an ownership ready to spend. The Mets and (to a lesser extent) Cubs can make a similar argument. It's also quite presumptuous to think that the thrill of the playoff chase will matter more than an extra $20m or so. I mean, maybe Ellsbury thinks that way, but most baseball players don't, as evidenced by the rarity of signings that happen despite another team offering significantly more money. Also, if ex-player analysts are anything to go by, I'm not so sure these free agents are really up to speed on what teams are likely to be good in the future anyway.
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Post by semperfisox on Nov 2, 2013 10:02:17 GMT -5
Hopefully us. Just on our terms.
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Post by TheCerebral1 on Nov 2, 2013 10:32:11 GMT -5
Personally I feel it will come down to Detroit, Philadelphia, Seattle and the Mets for outside competition. I view the Yankees as a pipe dream with their pitching needs. Watch out for Tanaka there.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 2, 2013 10:48:28 GMT -5
People here keep dogging on Seattle. That team isn't as bad as some think. That team has a decent rotation. Solid 1-3, with more coming. Very good BP made up of bullet throwers that know how to get the job done. Young and control on the cheap kids, like Kyle Seagar and Mike Saunders. Justin Smoak from August on showed why the Mariners got him in the Cliff Lee deal.
It looks like Ibanez wants to retire as a Mariner. Add Ells speed as the only outlay of any negligible amount of cash (other than Felix contract) and this team is as good as either Oakland or Texas in the west.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 2, 2013 12:24:12 GMT -5
People here keep dogging on Seattle. That team isn't as bad as some think. That team has a decent rotation. Solid 1-3, with more coming. Very good BP made up of bullet throwers that know how to get the job done. Young and control on the cheap kids, like Kyle Seagar and Mike Saunders. Justin Smoak from August on showed why the Mariners got him in the Cliff Lee deal. It looks like Ibanez wants to retire as a Mariner. Add Ells speed as the only outlay of any negligible amount of cash (other than Felix contract) and this team is as good as either Oakland or Texas in the west. Also a GM who needs to win this season after being very publicly spared the axe.
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Post by onbase on Nov 2, 2013 13:32:22 GMT -5
It's one thing to negotiate an extension before reaching free agency, quite another to reach the open market and not take the highest bid. I scanned the thread, read some posts carefully, but not all, so forgive me if I missed this. Is the player's union a factor? How much pressure do they put on players to take the most money and not set any precedents that could depress other salaries?
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I like our team best with Jacoby leading off, and I hope he stays. I hope recent experience does result in a decision to stay, rather than a conclusion that 2014 could be defined by post championship fatigue and injury. I am also mindful that my recent experience watching Jacoby play with joy and relentless determination upped my interest in seeing him stay.
What will be will be. Boras and Ben will both do the right thing and they might find common ground. If they don't may the money take Jacoby far from the AL East.
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Post by slam761 on Nov 2, 2013 13:47:20 GMT -5
I could definitely see the Mariners signing him. With Hernandez, Iwakuma, Paxton and Walker, they could end up with a very good rotation, and I'd imagine Jacoby's defense would be really appreciated in a big pitchers park like Safeco. They don't seem like they really have many viable CF options either, and Jack Z. pretty much needs to improve the team quickly or he's likely out of a job.
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Post by Gwell55 on Nov 2, 2013 14:58:17 GMT -5
People here keep dogging on Seattle. That team isn't as bad as some think. That team has a decent rotation. Solid 1-3, with more coming. Very good BP made up of bullet throwers that know how to get the job done. Young and control on the cheap kids, like Kyle Seagar and Mike Saunders. Justin Smoak from August on showed why the Mariners got him in the Cliff Lee deal. It looks like Ibanez wants to retire as a Mariner. Add Ells speed as the only outlay of any negligible amount of cash (other than Felix contract) and this team is as good as either Oakland or Texas in the west. Also a GM who needs to win this season after being very publicly spared the axe. Another look though about Jake that nobody seems to talk about is along with his early ties to the Northwest he also was enamored with Griffey Jr growing up and when Griffey dumped Seattle for not putting a TEAM together for him ... Ellsbury was watching. Seattle couldn't win and the fans throughout all the years are really fickle and people with northwest ties all know this even today. (They still leave in the third inning when they are losing by 2 or less). Ellsbury also in 04 decide Boston and it's fans were the way he wanted to go as his bio states. That tells me that Ellsbury isn't all about the money and I see no love for the Mariners by him stated anywhere.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 2, 2013 15:43:31 GMT -5
Seattle needs to build a team around the sort of players they've finally started bringing up. The park doesn't favor pure big power hitters, the all-or-nothing guys. It's not that you can't hit HRs, but it's so dependent on where the ball goes and what time of day it is that they needed to factor all that into their recruitment. What they need, and have needed since they moved to Safeco, is a lineup that plays good defense, one with good baserunning skills, and better than average contact rates, and with enough power to keep everyone honest. That's what they're finally building and Ellsbury is cut right from that mold. Add to that the exceptional young pitching talent and there may finally be something there. It's a tough division even with a dysfunctional Angels team. Oakland is just flat-out difficult, and Texas has the cash they need to make it rough on everyone else. But I do think the Mariners are, finally, poised to compete. They also have the money to make it happen, that's if Boras has marching orders that don't include squeezing every last dollar out of the market. Let's see if it all comes together for Ellsbury and Seattle. Chris hints at a big truth: the clock is ticking on Jack Z.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 2, 2013 16:25:35 GMT -5
I really can see only about 5 teams that should definitely be in on Jacoby. Sure there may be some surprise team, but for me the Phillies, Cards, Giants, Rangers, and Seattle are the best bets. Seattle does make the most sense. Outside shots: Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Reds and Nats. The only way I see Ells coming back to the Red Sox is if we give him 5 years at higher bucks per year than the competition. The only reason I mentioned five years is I don't believe Ben Cherington wants to go over a 5 year commitment (for anyone).
I can see the M's overpaying him by going for 7 years at $18M. That is insane money for a player over 30 with average power. Sox offer? I would bet Ben will offer something on the order of 5 years at $18 to $19M with an option year with a high buy-out. The package could hit $100M, but it probably won't be enough. As much as I like Jacoby Ellsbury, it would not be smart to go any higher in my thinking.
The Cardinals would love to upgrade their play in center by acquiring a guy who would allow them to be able to manufacture runs instead of waiting to string together several hits. It showed up greatly during the Series. Not sure how high they would be comfortable going, but they have the young pitching to be able to compete for a long time. Beltran is coming off the books and I wouldn't be surprised they fill his spot in right with their super prospect Oscar Tavares.
The Giants are sort of a mess offensively and would upgrade their offense a lot with someone like Ells.
Amaro and the Phils still think there is a "window" open to make a run. The Rangers, surprisingly, need offense also.
As much as I would rather not agree with Ken Rosenthal, I think the M's look like the perfect landing spot for our speedy centerfielder.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Nov 2, 2013 17:52:56 GMT -5
I think he ends up in Texas if Cruz doesn't accept the QO. He will get Crawford money 7/142 from either them or even a dark horse like Cleveland or KC that feels like they are on the cusp. Seattle could also step up but I don't know if they are interested in building a contender based around a high priced FA.
Who I think replaces him? Victorino. Stanton will be acquired in the offseason and Drew will be brought back.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 2, 2013 18:01:57 GMT -5
There is no way the Sox should consider trading for Stanton. Please understand when I say "consider" I mean at the exorbitant cost everyone assumes it would take. He hasn't proven he can stay on the field, he strikes out a ton and seems more like a .260 hitter then the .290 he hit a couple years ago. He's over-rated in my mind. People drunk off of what they picture him being rather than what he is. Would any team be lucky to have him? Sure. Is he very good? Yea. Is he one of the best hitters in the game worth giving up a godfather package for? No way in my opinion.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 2, 2013 18:05:04 GMT -5
Agree with you again there Norm. Seattle is ready to burst at the seems with young talent in pitching with 2 guys nobody has ever heard of, except for many of the people here and other places that watch/check out the better prospects in the game. Walker and Paxton were both marvelous in every late season start they had with the big club, I got to watch Walker's 1st game and it was a masterpiece, caught 1 of Paxton's. Those 2 should be a new LH/RH kiddie combo added to the already formidable Felix/Iwakuma tandem, with Ramirez probably anchoring the back end in his sophomore season. Both he and fellow kiddie corp Maurer looked good more often than no, but had streaks of inefficiency that could be expected from 22YO kids being thrust in the limelight.
If Ells doesn't return, I really hope it's Seattle as the destination.
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Post by dfwsox on Nov 2, 2013 18:30:50 GMT -5
Texas makes a lot of sense. They have gaping hole in center and they have the money to spend. I'd like to see Jacoby back though.
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Post by amfox1 on Nov 2, 2013 21:21:41 GMT -5
Texas makes a lot of sense. They have gaping hole in center and they have the money to spend. I'd like to see Jacoby back though. I wouldn't consider Leonys Martin a gaping hole. Furthermore, TEX is the lead dog for McCann and TEX's GM has already said that payroll is not going up. I would guess that, if an OF is targeted, it would be far more likely to be Granderson or Choo than Ellsbury.
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Post by Don Caballero on Nov 2, 2013 21:40:22 GMT -5
I wouldn't consider Leonys Martin a gaping hole. If Cruz leaves, they will have holes in both OF corners (Murphy is a hole at this point). I could see them going the speed and defense route by pairing Martin and Ellsbury there.
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Post by p23w on Nov 3, 2013 3:05:44 GMT -5
There is no way the Sox should consider trading for Stanton. Please understand when I say "consider" I mean at the exorbitant cost everyone assumes it would take. He hasn't proven he can stay on the field, he strikes out a ton and seems more like a .260 hitter then the .290 he hit a couple years ago. He's over-rated in my mind. People drunk off of what they picture him being rather than what he is. Would any team be lucky to have him? Sure. Is he very good? Yea. Is he one of the best hitters in the game worth giving up a godfather package for? No way in my opinion. In agreement.
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Post by bjb406 on Nov 3, 2013 7:25:03 GMT -5
I don't know about everyone else, but when I suggest trading for someone like Stanton, its not necessarily anything to do with Stanton himself, hes just the first player to come to mind because of past rumors/speculation and the position he plays. We are losing (probably) an elite center fielder and (probably) replacing him with a rookie that is not quite as good, and we are losing Ortiz soon, plus we have more assets then we know what to do with, so it makes sense to put together a package for an excellent player. With the number of pitchers we have in AAA, there is no way all of them could ever fit on the same 25 man roster, and there are only so many opportunities for guys to win a job. I would rather gamble a few guys for 1 really nice player then have someone like Ranaudo or Webster languish in AAA for a year an a half never getting an opportunity until the rest of the league decides 'well if they haven't promoted him yet then something must be wrong with him. Having a good player sit in AAA forever with no hope of starting for us isn't doing anyone any good, so I think we should use the surplus to upgrade where we can. Doesn't have to be Stanton, but he's the obvious candidate. What other guys out there are potentially elite players in the corner outfield or first base who are fairly young but about to get expensive? Brandon Belt maybe? ya probably not but we gotta find someone.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 3, 2013 11:01:50 GMT -5
To me, Cruz is potentially going to take his QO. He did PEDs. He is lucky to get a QO from Texas and he should probably take it.
I really do not know where Ellsbury ends up. It could be the Phils, the Mets, Seattle, the Redsox or another team but the most likely spot to me is the Yanks even with all their problems in the pitching staff...etc. They have an ungodly revenue base with that stadium and tremendous incentive to fill those seats and maintain their heritage of success. From a business viewpoint, they may choose to continue to blow right past the luxury tax levels just because they need to get that team back into consideration ASAP. Ellsbury is a player who can immediately help them win, and they should be able to shore up their pitching with getting Kuroda back and signing Tanaka ...etc. They can afford to do both.
Not saying they don't have huge problems but they also have the financial resources to address them both long term and short term if the players are available on the market. Which they were not during much of last year. Last year they spent $228,106,125 on payroll and they are saying over and over that they want to get under the luxury tax limit this year. Which they may of course do but at what cost to them long term in lost franchise value if they do not compete again next year? They basically bought every player they could last year to keep them in it. They just ran out of options, not money. Soriano, Wells, Suzuki...etc. They potentially lose Granderson this year and Wells, Soriano and Suzuki next year. That's almost their entire OF.
They lose a tremendous number of players this year potentially. Arod, Cano, Granderson, Mo, Petitte, Kuroda, Youkilis....etc. Those are huge salaries. Plus lots of intermediate salaries like Hughes, Logan, Reynolds...etc. And next year they lose several other huge contracts in Soriano and Wells.
The Yanks did EVERYTHING IN THEIR POWER TO WIN LAST YEAR. Spent an incredible amount of money and did deals which would be perceived as clinically stupid if they were not desperate to maintain their winning tradition. I think they do it again this year.
Got to fill those $25,000 luxury box seats somehow. Ellsbury is an option.
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Post by jmei on Nov 3, 2013 11:44:13 GMT -5
The Yankees are going to sell out the luxury boxes regardless, considering the corporate client base in New York City. They're not spending to sell tickets, they're spending because Steinbrenner wants to win and maximizing profits has rarely been his priority.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 3, 2013 12:58:10 GMT -5
The Yankees are going to sell out the luxury boxes regardless, considering the corporate client base in New York City. They're not spending to sell tickets, they're spending because Steinbrenner wants to win and maximizing profits has rarely been his priority. I think he meant the luxury seats that are close to the field that are constantly empty when you watch the games on TV, not the traditional corporate boxes.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 3, 2013 13:19:29 GMT -5
Those empty seats are sold.
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Post by jmei on Nov 3, 2013 13:29:19 GMT -5
Those empty seats are sold. This. I know the law firm I worked at (not even a terribly large one for NYC) has 4 pretty great season tickets four rows up behind the first-base dugout that chronically go unused on weeknights.
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Post by godot on Nov 3, 2013 13:54:04 GMT -5
Ok, it is a guessing game as to whether he stays or goes, but if he goes, what are the implications for the offense and how will they compensate. Bradley will not duplicate him on offense, but how far of drop will he be? More than likely, there will be a learning curve for him. Where are the possible improvements in the offense. Seems it may be having the X-Man full time and a healthy Drew if he stays; if not, will Middlebrooks improve?
Of course, the pitching may be even better if some of the young arms blossom and Clay stays healthy ( long shot?)
What is the net loss if he goes and how will it be addressed?
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