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4/23-4/25 Red Sox @ Guardians Series Thread
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Post by insanesoxfan on Apr 25, 2024 15:03:48 GMT -5
The Rafaela extension means he won't make more than 10 mil per season until 2030. Doesn't make over 5 mil until 2028. That's barely anything for elite defense at 2 positions up the middle. He has also hit nothing and shown the same deficiencies in the majors that he had shown in the minors. The extension made him far more expensive for the next 5 years than he would be otherwise. If he only cost 770,000 the next 2 years, and then small amount of arbitration raises after that, he’d be far more valuable to mid and small market teams. He's 23 y/o and clearly not a finished product. The idea with these extensions is that you sign them before they're finished products so you don't have to pay as much.
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Post by asm18 on Apr 25, 2024 15:04:41 GMT -5
Not impressed with the guardians at all, Sox beat themselves They're off to a great start, and in that division that may be enough, but losing Bieber really hurts. An injured McKenzie and old Carrasco making up half their rotation isn't ideal.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 25, 2024 15:05:31 GMT -5
Wouldn't necessarily go as far as zero to negative trade value but I also kind of forgot about the unnecessary extension so yea Duran would probably make the most sense in any theoretical OF trade that is brought on due to Abreu turning into a star. Then again I really don't know what Duran's real ability is at this point either. He started hot but he's been pretty bad for a few weeks at the plate. Same kind of thing happened last year until he hurt his toe and missed the year. Probably is just your prototypical streaky baseball player with long ups and downs. Yea I mostly agree with this. Realistically, their only outfielder with trade value is Abreu Edit: O’Neill too, my bad Duran has plenty of trade value too. He's been an above average defensive CF this year with wheels and a decent enough bat, and he has several affordable years of control remaining. Even Refsnyder is a good value, but he's older and with less control. It's really just Rafaela and Yoshida who wouldn't bring back anything.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Apr 25, 2024 15:06:32 GMT -5
He has also hit nothing and shown the same deficiencies in the majors that he had shown in the minors. The extension made him far more expensive for the next 5 years than he would be otherwise. If he only cost 770,000 the next 2 years, and then small amount of arbitration raises after that, he’d be far more valuable to mid and small market teams. He's 23 y/o and clearly not a finished product. The idea with these extensions is that you sign them before they're finished products so you don't have to pay as much. Sure, but you gotta pick your spots. You can’t just hand these out to every player. Rafaela has had the same issues for the last two years in the minors, and before showing any improvement on it (other than Spring Training, which you can’t judge off of solely) the Red Sox committed a ton of money to him and sunk his trade value further in the process
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 25, 2024 15:12:19 GMT -5
Is it not obvious to everyone that the FO does not want Yoshida in LF! Yes, Yoshida is unplayable there compared to the other option: Duran, O’Niell, Abreu, and Refsnyder! Why play Yoshida when your best chance of winning is run prevention! Cora is frustrated in the interviews as he may want to play Yoshida and the FO has said NO. I agree with the FO. My crystal ball says Yoshida gets the David Price 50% discount….do the Dodgers need a ground ball machine at DH….no…..maybe the Cubs will take him…. There is a 0% chance that Yoshida’s defense is so much worse than Refsynder’s that his offense isn’t far outstripping Dalbec or Reyes The FO must disagree with you. Maybe the FO does not want Yoshida getting hurt before he is traded.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 25, 2024 15:22:59 GMT -5
There is a 0% chance that Yoshida’s defense is so much worse than Refsynder’s that his offense isn’t far outstripping Dalbec or Reyes The FO must disagree with you. Maybe the FO does not want Yoshida getting hurt before he is traded.I'm not sure what is going on with Yoshida riding the pine recently but I'm not really buying this logic. His trade value is probably 0 right now since they don't play him. If they wanted to trade him to me it feels like they would want him playing to showcase him for other teams. Might just be as simple as they don't want him in the field at all unless it's an emergency and when Devers is back to 3rd he'll be DH'ing the bulk of the games again. This explanation does make the most sense to me but still has holes in it so I don't necessarily get what the deal is with Yoshida at this point.
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Post by wamderingdude on Apr 25, 2024 16:15:33 GMT -5
To me any player is expendable in the right deal in any situation but that being said even if Abreu is playing close to his real level why would that necessarily make Anthony the OF to be traded? If Anthony is as good as advertised I just assume trade Rafaela or Duran. I think Rafaela probably has zero to negative trade value ever since signing that ridiculous extension I really don’t think the extension changes his trade value at all. If you would have traded for him before it’s because you thought he would be apart of your core for the next several years anyway, and you value the defense and believe in the getting to league average or better. No one trades for a top 100 prospect thinking they won’t be with the team throughout the entire time they are under control anyway.
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Post by asm18 on Apr 25, 2024 16:17:59 GMT -5
So, still not a Cora fan (I think) but this is a weird time to be dumping on him. The team has exceed my expectations and unlike most of the last two years they're kina fun to follow right now. Sure, maybe most of that is Bailey but I think Cora deserves some credit too. Save the bad vibes for another day. It’s not about bad vibes, it’s about curiosity over what makes Cora so beloved? I’m legitimately curious as to what people see that myself and multiple others in this thread don’t seem to see? That’s all Didn’t want to derail the game thread with this discussion, but this is a legit question. I would say firstly: World Series winning manager. That will get you cache. You can point to the juggernaut of a team he had in 2018, but that core of players was largely there in 2016-2017 and they didn’t get past the ALDS. He has 2021 on his resume. I would argue he kept the 2022-2023 teams afloat despite broken rotations until the front office (rightly or wrongly) declined to bolster those teams. Secondly: I think a lot gets scrutinized over “why isn’t so and so playing” or “why didn’t Cora go to reliever X”, which is all fair. But in addition to writing the lineup and making pitching changes, Cora’s responsibilities include but are not limited to: -connecting with and motivating players -balancing in-game decisions with the needs of a 162 game season -dealing with/managing the Boston media -assessing recommendations from the medical staff -handling requests (or demands) from the front office or analytics team -managing his own coaching staff -handling egos - or guys being hungover, late, or just plain being assholes No one is saying he is flawless at all of these things… but he’s pretty damn good! Obviously Andrew Bailey is deserving of credit for enhancing the pitching infrastructure, and that’s been incredibly vital this year. No is arguing against that. But this is a team that before the year fans and media constantly shit on, that was projected for like 80 wins in the most rosy of forecasts - and they are 14-12 (a mid-80’s win pace) despite the entire infield getting hurt and half the rotation out, winning games with rookies and Triple A players (or players performing like it) making up half the lineup. Maybe Cora has literally no positive impact here… but somehow I doubt it.
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Post by rhswanzey on Apr 25, 2024 16:20:23 GMT -5
I don’t expect to win with my 8th starter up against a first place team anchored by a legitimate perennial MVP candidate. We almost did anyway.
The 7th inning isn’t not frustrating, but already being in July 2023 mode - multiple openers per turn - is of way greater concern to me than continuing to play two or three second basemen at a time. Hamilton made an excellent play on a near bunt out earlier in the game from second, fwiw. The bullpen mileage will catch up with us, but this time, it’s going to hit a couple months earlier.
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Post by strike23 on Apr 25, 2024 16:20:50 GMT -5
Yea I mostly agree with this. Realistically, their only outfielder with trade value is Abreu Edit: O’Neill too, my bad Duran has plenty of trade value too. He's been an above average defensive CF this year with wheels and a decent enough bat, and he has several affordable years of control remaining. Even Refsnyder is a good value, but he's older and with less control. It's really just Rafaela and Yoshida who wouldn't bring back anything. The way I started this conversation could have been way more specific. Roman is not MLB ready and probably won't be until mid-'25. If the Sox unexpectedly find themselves 1st in the AL East come the '24 trade deadline TON, Duran, and Abreu would clearly have trade value but also be highly valuable pieces to a contending Sox team. Roman for as good a prospect as he is likely isn't contributing to the sox WS chances in '24 or '25, has more trade value than any of the other guys, and could bust as easy as any other prospect. We've generally been referring to him as untouchable in trade deals but if we want a big piece back Refsnyder, Duran, or 3 months of TON probably aren't getting us much. Its less important going into '25 but still relevant since if we're looking to spend money the OF isn't a bad place to do it and that also starts to make him redundant with any big acquisition, CR, and Wilyer all under control long term with several more years of Duran as well, especially if Roman profiles as more of a corner OF he would seem to have the most value in a trade while impacting the big league team the least. In that context I think a Wilyer breakout significantly changes the math on how Roman is looked at in trade proposals. With that said what kind of return a)could we reasonably expect and b)would make people happy with the trade?
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Post by wamderingdude on Apr 25, 2024 16:32:00 GMT -5
Duran has plenty of trade value too. He's been an above average defensive CF this year with wheels and a decent enough bat, and he has several affordable years of control remaining. Even Refsnyder is a good value, but he's older and with less control. It's really just Rafaela and Yoshida who wouldn't bring back anything. The way I started this conversation could have been way more specific. Roman is not MLB ready and probably won't be until mid-'25. If the Sox unexpectedly find themselves 1st in the AL East come the '24 trade deadline TON, Duran, and Abreu would clearly have trade value but also be highly valuable pieces to a contending Sox team. Roman for as good a prospect as he is likely isn't contributing to the sox WS chances in '24 or '25, has more trade value than any of the other guys, and could bust as easy as any other prospect. We've generally been referring to him as untouchable in trade deals but if we want a big piece back Refsnyder, Duran, or 3 months of TON probably aren't getting us much. Its less important going into '25 but still relevant since if we're looking to spend money the OF isn't a bad place to do it and that also starts to make him redundant with any big acquisition, CR, and Wilyer all under control long term with several more years of Duran as well, especially if Roman profiles as more of a corner OF he would seem to have the most value in a trade while impacting the big league team the least. In that context I think a Wilyer breakout significantly changes the math on how Roman is looked at in trade proposals. With that said what kind of return a)could we reasonably expect and b)would make people happy with the trade? The Red Sox spent the entire offseason telling us they didn’t really care that much about 2024 and wouldn’t give up future wins for 2024 wins. Changing course and trading your top prospect 5 months later would be some Arte Moreno stuff. I would hate it unless the return was like Elly de la cruz or someone with 6+ years of control.
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Post by strike23 on Apr 25, 2024 16:33:53 GMT -5
I don’t expect to win with my 8th starter up against a first place team anchored by a legitimate perennial MVP candidate. We almost did anyway. The 7th inning isn’t not frustrating, but already being in July 2023 mode - multiple openers per turn - is of way greater concern to me than continuing to play two or three second basemen at a time. Hamilton made an excellent play on a near bunt out earlier in the game from second, fwiw. The bullpen mileage will catch up with us, but this time, it’s going to hit a couple months earlier. I do think it helps that we seem to have a deeper staff, Criswell is a real (AAA) starter and managed a full 5 the last time out, hopefully Pivetta or Whitlock are back or we sign someone and avoid another full bullpen game. Uwasawa, Fitts, Walter, and/or Gambrell should also all be available by mid year and capable of at least eating innings to help save the better arms for competitive games.
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Post by strike23 on Apr 25, 2024 16:48:18 GMT -5
The way I started this conversation could have been way more specific. Roman is not MLB ready and probably won't be until mid-'25. If the Sox unexpectedly find themselves 1st in the AL East come the '24 trade deadline TON, Duran, and Abreu would clearly have trade value but also be highly valuable pieces to a contending Sox team. Roman for as good a prospect as he is likely isn't contributing to the sox WS chances in '24 or '25, has more trade value than any of the other guys, and could bust as easy as any other prospect. We've generally been referring to him as untouchable in trade deals but if we want a big piece back Refsnyder, Duran, or 3 months of TON probably aren't getting us much. Its less important going into '25 but still relevant since if we're looking to spend money the OF isn't a bad place to do it and that also starts to make him redundant with any big acquisition, CR, and Wilyer all under control long term with several more years of Duran as well, especially if Roman profiles as more of a corner OF he would seem to have the most value in a trade while impacting the big league team the least. In that context I think a Wilyer breakout significantly changes the math on how Roman is looked at in trade proposals. With that said what kind of return a)could we reasonably expect and b)would make people happy with the trade? The Red Sox spent the entire offseason telling us they didn’t really care that much about 2024 and wouldn’t give up future wins for 2024 wins. Changing course and trading your top prospect 5 months later would be some Arte Moreno stuff. I would hate it unless the return was like Elly de la cruz or someone with 6+ years of control. The math on how much you care about '24 is drastically different in November and July. There's no indication that they'd refuse to reinforce a '24 team that stays competitive through the deadline and I'd argue that it may be part of the reason they stayed so far below the cap. Its also applicable to the '25 team if they wanted to do something like signing Soto. There's a limit to the benefit of young cost controlled players when you can run a $200+M payroll. I'll acknowledge that Wilyer has only done this for ~50 games and this is highly speculative but I don't think you can say that filling a corner OF spot with someone that's been playing like Roman's 80% outcome and is under control for 6 years doesn't impact the math on his tradability. If the padres fall out of it and their TV situation worsens does Roman + Mayer get you close to Tatis?
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Post by pappyman99 on Apr 25, 2024 16:48:24 GMT -5
Seems odd that people will simultaneously say Yoshida fell off because he got tired last year but then also be confused about giving him more days off than others.
But it’s also very possible he has a minor injury
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Post by wamderingdude on Apr 25, 2024 16:56:18 GMT -5
The Red Sox spent the entire offseason telling us they didn’t really care that much about 2024 and wouldn’t give up future wins for 2024 wins. Changing course and trading your top prospect 5 months later would be some Arte Moreno stuff. I would hate it unless the return was like Elly de la cruz or someone with 6+ years of control. The math on how much you care about '24 is drastically different in November and July. There's no indication that they'd refuse to reinforce a '24 team that stays competitive through the deadline and I'd argue that it may be part of the reason they stayed so far below the cap. It’s also applicable to the '25 team if they wanted to do something like signing Soto. There's a limit to the benefit of young cost controlled players when you can run a $200+M payroll. I'll acknowledge that Wilyer has only done this for ~50 games and this is highly speculative but I don't think you can say that filling a corner OF spot with someone that's been playing like Roman's 80% outcome and is under control for 6 years doesn't impact the math on his tradability. If the padres fall out of it and their TV situation worsens does Roman + Mayer get you close to Tatis? I don’t think they’d outright refuse to help the team if they were more competitive than they thought, but i am saying having an offseason where they refused to sign a big name and also told every team that the big three were off limits to then Trade one of them 5 months later shows a complete lack of long term planning and vision. If they want to trade like yorke or zanatello for a shortstop great! But im saying they can’t stray away from the plan once they picked the path. Also as someone who’s a big believer in Wilyer, he was benched to start this year when everyone was healthy and is running like a .415 Babip while striking out 27 percent of the time. This does not feel like Roman’s 80th percentile outcome. They can (and should) Just play together!
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Apr 25, 2024 17:05:04 GMT -5
I didn't see the Hamilton play so I'm less worked up than the rest on that, but he's been a WAY better hitter so far than any of Valdez, Reyes, Rafaela or Dalbec, and is probably the best baserunner on the team. I'm not rushing to demote him first. At this point, it’s irrelevant if he hits (which he isn’t). Every time this dude is in the field, the whole IF falls apart. Clearly his nervous energy is infectious. I also would be infuriated with wasting a bench role for someone who’s exclusively a pinch runner especially when there is actually fast to decent speed on this club. Say what you want about Bob, but at least he can field the ball cleanly and runs the bases well. Sorry to all his defenders out there, but Hamilton is not and never will be a quality big league ball player. It’s honestly a joke he is still on this team w/ Sogard down in Worcester.
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Post by strike23 on Apr 25, 2024 17:37:14 GMT -5
The math on how much you care about '24 is drastically different in November and July. There's no indication that they'd refuse to reinforce a '24 team that stays competitive through the deadline and I'd argue that it may be part of the reason they stayed so far below the cap. It’s also applicable to the '25 team if they wanted to do something like signing Soto. There's a limit to the benefit of young cost controlled players when you can run a $200+M payroll. I'll acknowledge that Wilyer has only done this for ~50 games and this is highly speculative but I don't think you can say that filling a corner OF spot with someone that's been playing like Roman's 80% outcome and is under control for 6 years doesn't impact the math on his tradability. If the padres fall out of it and their TV situation worsens does Roman + Mayer get you close to Tatis? I don’t think they’d outright refuse to help the team if they were more competitive than they thought, but i am saying having an offseason where they refused to sign a big name and also told every team that the big three were off limits to then Trade one of them 5 months later shows a complete lack of long term planning and vision. If they want to trade like yorke or zanatello for a shortstop great! But im saying they can’t stray away from the plan once they picked the path. Also as someone who’s a big believer in Wilyer, he was benched to start this year when everyone was healthy and is running like a .415 Babip while striking out 27 percent of the time. This does not feel like Roman’s 80th percentile outcome. They can (and should) Just play together! You make a good point, I didn't realize Wilyer's BABIP was that level of unsustainable and was only really looking at his career 12% BB 26% K ~150 wRC+ with plus RF defense. That comps him to a very short list of players and would obviously be well above the 80% outcome for just about any prospect if it were even moderately sustainable. While this is (intentionally) a too early conversation I think the change in how the young talent (rotation, wilyer, wong) look this year in addition to guys like Casas and Duran solidifying how they looked last year should absolutely impact how the FO should treat the big 3 (primarily Roman since we still don't have a SS) since it suddenly looks like we have a strong core and extremely limited payroll for the next 4-5 years and extensions are becoming common enough that top players aren't really available in FA and have to be traded for.
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Post by wamderingdude on Apr 25, 2024 17:45:16 GMT -5
I don’t think they’d outright refuse to help the team if they were more competitive than they thought, but i am saying having an offseason where they refused to sign a big name and also told every team that the big three were off limits to then Trade one of them 5 months later shows a complete lack of long term planning and vision. If they want to trade like yorke or zanatello for a shortstop great! But im saying they can’t stray away from the plan once they picked the path. Also as someone who’s a big believer in Wilyer, he was benched to start this year when everyone was healthy and is running like a .415 Babip while striking out 27 percent of the time. This does not feel like Roman’s 80th percentile outcome. They can (and should) Just play together! You make a good point, I didn't realize Wilyer's BABIP was that level of unsustainable and was only really looking at his career 12% BB 26% K ~150 wRC+ with plus RF defense. That comps him to a very short list of players and would obviously be well above the 80% outcome for just about any prospect if it were even moderately sustainable. While this is (intentionally) a too early conversation I think the change in how the young talent (rotation, wilyer, wong) look this year in addition to guys like Casas and Duran solidifying how they looked last year should absolutely impact how the FO should treat the big 3 (primarily Roman since we still don't have a SS) since it suddenly looks like we have a strong core and extremely limited payroll for the next 4-5 years and extensions are becoming common enough that top players aren't really available in FA and have to be traded for. Yeah i guess my point about the 80 percent outcome was how wilyer was getting there versus the actual production. This conversation can change in the offseason, but if they want to trade top prospects i want it to be coupled with large expenditures. Go all in when you think you have a world series team, don’t go half in (trading prospects) and half out (limiting payroll). I still don’t really see a fit anyway, their biggest need is shortstop but they could very well have both Marcelo and Story back again next year. Are we demoting someone from the rotation? It just doesn’t seem remotely feasible to me and why i pushed back so hard.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 25, 2024 17:55:26 GMT -5
I didn't see the Hamilton play so I'm less worked up than the rest on that, but he's been a WAY better hitter so far than any of Valdez, Reyes, Rafaela or Dalbec, and is probably the best baserunner on the team. I'm not rushing to demote him first. At this point, it’s irrelevant if he hits (which he isn’t). Every time this dude is in the field, the whole IF falls apart. Clearly his nervous energy is infectious. I also would be infuriated with wasting a bench role for someone who’s exclusively a pinch runner especially when there is actually fast to decent speed on this club. Say what you want about Bob, but at least he can field the ball cleanly and runs the bases well. Sorry to all his defenders out there, but Hamilton is not and never will be a quality big league ball player. It’s honestly a joke he is still on this team w/ Sogard down in Worcester. This is very imperfect SSS stuff, but so far the following players have rated worse than Hamilton at SS by dWAR on Fangraphs: O'Neill at RF Reyes at SS Abreu at RF Rafaela at SS Devers at 3B Reyes at 1B Gonzalez at SS He's been bad I'm just not nearly sure he's been the outsized disaster you're saying. I'd say he's been pretty much an equally inline disaster with Rafaela, Reyes, Dalbec and Valdez.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 25, 2024 18:15:04 GMT -5
The FO must disagree with you. Maybe the FO does not want Yoshida getting hurt before he is traded.I'm not sure what is going on with Yoshida riding the pine recently but I'm not really buying this logic. His trade value is probably 0 right now since they don't play him. If they wanted to trade him to me it feels like they would want him playing to showcase him for other teams. Might just be as simple as they don't want him in the field at all unless it's an emergency and when Devers is back to 3rd he'll be DH'ing the bulk of the games again. This explanation does make the most sense to me but still has holes in it so I don't necessarily get what the deal is with Yoshida at this point. My comment about a trade was half poking fun of how many pages in this thread were about why Yoshida is not playing. Most everyone was pulling their hair out trying to figure out why Yoshida is not playing…. He stinks in the field and the FO does not want him on defense. TON and Devers are better hitters and needed the DH spot fora few days. The brass does not see it necessary to move everyone around to accommodate a bad defender. I feel like there is no mystery in that Cora says he will be in the next day’s lineup, and he is being overruled by the FO….and that is why he is being testy as he is caught in the middle.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Apr 25, 2024 18:20:13 GMT -5
At this point, it’s irrelevant if he hits (which he isn’t). Every time this dude is in the field, the whole IF falls apart. Clearly his nervous energy is infectious. I also would be infuriated with wasting a bench role for someone who’s exclusively a pinch runner especially when there is actually fast to decent speed on this club. Say what you want about Bob, but at least he can field the ball cleanly and runs the bases well. Sorry to all his defenders out there, but Hamilton is not and never will be a quality big league ball player. It’s honestly a joke he is still on this team w/ Sogard down in Worcester. This is very imperfect SSS stuff, but so far the following players have rated worse than Hamilton at SS by dWAR on Fangraphs: O'Neill at RF Reyes at SS Abreu at RF Rafaela at SS Devers at 3B Reyes at 1B Gonzalez at SS He's been bad I'm just not nearly sure he's been the outsized disaster you're saying. I'd say he's been pretty much an equally inline disaster with Rafaela, Reyes, Dalbec and Valdez. Why are you including OFs here though and how is their inclusion relevant? Also, why are you including Romy who has played only one game @ SS? This also shows how dWAR is an imperfect stat because anyone who has watched Hamilton play @ SS vs. Ceddanne would say that the latter is far and away more sure-handed at the position. Sorry, but I will die on the "Hamilton is not a big leaguer" hill all day long.
Additionally, this isn't to say that Reyes, Valdez and Dalbec haven't been bad – they most certainly have. However, at least in Dalbec's and Valdez's case, there's at least a semi-guarantee they'll make the routine play // touch the bag. Reyes on the other hand is just sneaky bad on both sides of the ball. Wouldn't be surprised if he eventually gets the axe should some health come back some role players or if Sogard is finally given a big league opportunity.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 25, 2024 18:25:01 GMT -5
This is very imperfect SSS stuff, but so far the following players have rated worse than Hamilton at SS by dWAR on Fangraphs: O'Neill at RF Reyes at SS Abreu at RF Rafaela at SS Devers at 3B Reyes at 1B Gonzalez at SS He's been bad I'm just not nearly sure he's been the outsized disaster you're saying. I'd say he's been pretty much an equally inline disaster with Rafaela, Reyes, Dalbec and Valdez. Why are you including OFs here though and how is their inclusion relevant? Also, why are you including Romy who has played only one game @ SS? This also shows how dWAR is an imperfect stat because anyone who has watched Hamilton play @ SS vs. Ceddanne would say that the latter is far and away more sure-handed at the position. Sorry, but I will die on the "Hamilton is not a big leaguer" hill all day long.
Additionally, this isn't to say that Reyes, Valdez and Dalbec haven't been bad – they most certainly have. However, at least in Dalbec's and Valdez's case, there's at least a semi-guarantee they'll make the routine play // touch the bag. Reyes on the other hand is just sneaky bad on both sides of the ball. Wouldn't be surprised if he eventually gets the axe should some health come back some role players or if Sogard is finally given a big league opportunity.
My point was just that by the numbers Hamilton hasn't been as singularly disastrous a defender, or overall player, as you are suggesting. Though I agree that the fact that Reyes, Dalbec, Rafaela, and Valdez have all also been horrible isn't exactly a great defense.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Apr 25, 2024 18:28:20 GMT -5
Why are you including OFs here though and how is their inclusion relevant? Also, why are you including Romy who has played only one game @ SS? This also shows how dWAR is an imperfect stat because anyone who has watched Hamilton play @ SS vs. Ceddanne would say that the latter is far and away more sure-handed at the position. Sorry, but I will die on the "Hamilton is not a big leaguer" hill all day long.
Additionally, this isn't to say that Reyes, Valdez and Dalbec haven't been bad – they most certainly have. However, at least in Dalbec's and Valdez's case, there's at least a semi-guarantee they'll make the routine play // touch the bag. Reyes on the other hand is just sneaky bad on both sides of the ball. Wouldn't be surprised if he eventually gets the axe should some health come back some role players or if Sogard is finally given a big league opportunity.
My point was just that by the numbers Hamilton hasn't been as singularly disastrous a defender, or overall player, as you are suggesting. Though I agree that the fact that Reyes, Dalbec, Rafaela, and Valdez have all also been horrible isn't exactly a great defense. Certainly hear that. However, there is something damning about Hamilton's influence on defensive play when he's on the dirt. Seems like everyone is trying to overcompensate for his poor play and thus makes errors themselves. My overall point ends in saying that w/ Ceddanne there, it has visually seemed much more calm with everyone.
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Post by rhswanzey on Apr 25, 2024 20:22:17 GMT -5
I don’t expect to win with my 8th starter up against a first place team anchored by a legitimate perennial MVP candidate. We almost did anyway. The 7th inning isn’t not frustrating, but already being in July 2023 mode - multiple openers per turn - is of way greater concern to me than continuing to play two or three second basemen at a time. Hamilton made an excellent play on a near bunt out earlier in the game from second, fwiw. The bullpen mileage will catch up with us, but this time, it’s going to hit a couple months earlier. I do think it helps that we seem to have a deeper staff, Criswell is a real (AAA) starter and managed a full 5 the last time out, hopefully Pivetta or Whitlock are back or we sign someone and avoid another full bullpen game. Uwasawa, Fitts, Walter, and/or Gambrell should also all be available by mid year and capable of at least eating innings to help save the better arms for competitive games. All of those depth arms - and I’d include all three of Winc, Criswell and Anderson, too - are probably going to give us less than five more often than they give us five. We got lucky this turn. There are going to be other turns where Criswell doesn’t go five, and in back-to-back games, we need about seven pen innings. There’s still a game tomorrow. The cascading effects of doing this turn after turn are inescapable. I don’t even have a better plan than this. This is what we can do with what we’ve got and I want to complain about it.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 26, 2024 11:27:09 GMT -5
Duran has plenty of trade value too. He's been an above average defensive CF this year with wheels and a decent enough bat, and he has several affordable years of control remaining. Even Refsnyder is a good value, but he's older and with less control. It's really just Rafaela and Yoshida who wouldn't bring back anything. The way I started this conversation could have been way more specific. Roman is not MLB ready and probably won't be until mid-'25. If the Sox unexpectedly find themselves 1st in the AL East come the '24 trade deadline TON, Duran, and Abreu would clearly have trade value but also be highly valuable pieces to a contending Sox team. Roman for as good a prospect as he is likely isn't contributing to the sox WS chances in '24 or '25, has more trade value than any of the other guys, and could bust as easy as any other prospect. We've generally been referring to him as untouchable in trade deals but if we want a big piece back Refsnyder, Duran, or 3 months of TON probably aren't getting us much. Its less important going into '25 but still relevant since if we're looking to spend money the OF isn't a bad place to do it and that also starts to make him redundant with any big acquisition, CR, and Wilyer all under control long term with several more years of Duran as well, especially if Roman profiles as more of a corner OF he would seem to have the most value in a trade while impacting the big league team the least. In that context I think a Wilyer breakout significantly changes the math on how Roman is looked at in trade proposals. With that said what kind of return a)could we reasonably expect and b)would make people happy with the trade? I'm still just failing to see how Duran has limited trade value. I'm not sure what Roman is worth, but at this point I'd want a whole lot to trade him. This past offseason I would have been looking for a top SP prospect, but the pitching has been so good this year that it puts the future calculus up in the air. If SP is no longer a big need, and I'm not seeing huge future needs in the rest of the roster, maybe you just hold Roman unless you're blown away on a pure value basis.
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