5/6-5/9 Red Sox vs. Twins Series Thread

[Jonathan Singer]

5/6 Red Sox (RHP Clay Buchholz 6-0 1.01) vs. Twins (RHP Vance Worley 0-4 7.22) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI

5/7 Red Sox (RHP Ryan Dempster 2-2 3.00) vs. Twins (LHP Scott Diamond 2-2 3.97) 7:10 pm ET, NESN /WEEI

5/8 Red Sox (LHP Felix Doubront 3-1 5.67) vs. Twins (LHP Pedro Hernandez 1-0 3.92) 3:05 pm ET, NESN Plus/ESPN/WEEI

5/9 Red Sox (RHP John Lackey 1-2 3.52) vs. Twins (RHP Kevin Correia 3-2 2.83) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI


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Series Thread Disclaimer: The SoxProspects Moderators will be somewhat liberal in policing the Red Sox "Series" Threads. Some of the Ground Rules are applied loosely in here, as we understand that there is a tendency to want to react (or overreact) to every play of a Sox game with one line reactionary posts. Those posts are okay in the Red Sox Series threads to a point - we certainly appreciate the passion. Just try not to overdo it, and try to maintain some semblance of reason. In addition, please don't let those type of posts spill over to other more substantive threads, where they may be deleted. -The Management

[Chris Hatfield]

Would be nice to recover from the Texas sweep and take at least three here.

[station13]

There's a 3'clock start, that can't be right.

[ray88h66]

The manager pinch ran for Ross yesterday knowing no matter what happened Salty would have to catch the bottom of the ninth and the possible need of a third catcher. Why can't he use Ross as a defensive sub for Salty when we are actually winning the game for defensive reasons?

[amfox1]

Bailey to DL, Breslow activated. Hanrahan back as closer.

[bluechip]

This is what I feared Buchholz looks terrible. He let Jack Morris affect his routine and its screwed with his head.

[wcp3]

Pathetic performance by Buchholz. Soft doesn't even begin to describe it.

[bluechip]

Now that's impressive. Way to bounce back after terrible start.

[threeifbaerga]

May 6, 2013 18:32:41 GMT -5 wcp3 said:

Pathetic performance by Buchholz. Soft doesn't even begin to describe it.

I really hope you just forgot to italicize. 

[mattpicard]

Ellsbury and Pedroia have looked like complete shell's of their former selves this season. That doesn't mean they've been "bad," but just haven't played like you'd expect. Mainly Pedroia, since Ellsbury hasn't had much consistently in his career.

EDIT: Maybe time to find a way to put Ped's back in his customary #2 spot? Victorino can be electric, but isn't really a great hitter vs. RHP. Original plan of him batting 6th or 7th could help the dynamic of the lower half of the lineup.

[Guidas]

Just fugly out there right now. Facing a bad team and a bad pitcher and they just look hapless and uninterested.

[mattpicard]

May 6, 2013 19:22:19 GMT -5 Guidas said:

Just fugly out there right now. Facing a bad team and a bad pitcher and they just look hapless and uninterested.

Eh, I'm not a fan of saying they look uninterested in this context. Do you really think Pedroia and Middlebrooks, who want to win and play well as much as anyone, are uninterested? They are just slumping, badly.

[wcp3]

May 6, 2013 18:54:30 GMT -5 threeifbaerga said:

May 6, 2013 18:32:41 GMT -5 wcp3 said:

Pathetic performance by Buchholz. Soft doesn't even begin to describe it.

I really hope you just forgot to italicize. 

Nah, no italics needed. It's been a dreadful performance against a horrible team.

[mattpicard]

May 6, 2013 19:40:08 GMT -5 wcp3 said:

May 6, 2013 18:54:30 GMT -5 threeifbaerga said:

I really hope you just forgot to italicize. 

Nah, no italics needed. It's been a dreadful performance against a horrible team.

That's way too critical. The Twins may be bad, but they still have 3 very good hitters in the 2-4 spots of their lineup, who are responsible for nearly all the damage against Buch tonight. The first inning was dreadful, otherwise he's looked pretty solid and has racked up 8 k's.

[wskeleton76]

To me, Pedroia looks to try to do too much.

[bluechip]

May 6, 2013 19:13:03 GMT -5 mattpicard said:

Ellsbury and Pedroia have looked like complete shell's of their former selves this season. That doesn't mean they've been "bad," but just haven't played like you'd expect. Mainly Pedroia, since Ellsbury hasn't had much consistently in his career.

EDIT: Maybe time to find a way to put Ped's back in his customary #2 spot? Victorino can be electric, but isn't really a great hitter vs. RHP. Original plan of him batting 6th or 7th could help the dynamic of the lower half of the lineup.

If you look at the Sabermetric theory of lineup construction, Your best overall hitter bats cleapup, your best OBP hitter bats second. Your second best OBP hitter bats lead off, your second best power hitter bats fifth. The number three hitter should be your fifth best hitter.

[godot]

Don't believe it. Clay pitches lights out all season, throws on clinker,and now some are throwing rocks at him.

Baseball is a game of rhythms, breaks, and skills. Now the Sox are not firing. It happens. Not to say they do not have some warts right now that are a little bothersome.

Mama said there would be times like this. Cool it. If it isn't your life, your family, why worry.

[mattpicard]

May 6, 2013 19:49:38 GMT -5 bluechip said:

May 6, 2013 19:13:03 GMT -5 mattpicard said:

Ellsbury and Pedroia have looked like complete shell's of their former selves this season. That doesn't mean they've been "bad," but just haven't played like you'd expect. Mainly Pedroia, since Ellsbury hasn't had much consistently in his career.

EDIT: Maybe time to find a way to put Ped's back in his customary #2 spot? Victorino can be electric, but isn't really a great hitter vs. RHP. Original plan of him batting 6th or 7th could help the dynamic of the lower half of the lineup.

If you look at the Sabermetric theory of lineup construction, Your best overall hitter bats cleapup, your best OBP hitter bats second. Your second best OBP hitter bats lead off, your second best power hitter bats fifth. The number three hitter should be your fifth best hitter.

Ok. So are you supporting me on that change? That is, considering Pedroia has been our best OBP guy, aside from Ortiz's limited time back, and he's not our fifth best hitter.

[bluechip]

Lineup has some real flaws in the bottom of the order. Middlebrooks approach is terrible, his strikeout and walk rates last year should have been warning signs, but as it stands, there is no depth at third base.

[brianthetaoist]

Why is Salty making him pitch such a mediocre game?

[jmei]

Hell of an at-bat from Nava. His approach is terrific. Which is why seeing Saltalamacchia bat after him is so jarring.

[charliezink16]

This spitball stuff is really starting to piss me off. MLB Network right now saying stuff like "there is a significantly different look on his arm from last start to this one", and "he hasn't touched his arm as much this start, more hat touching". Really unfair what kind of negative publicity Jack Morris has put onto Buchholz in my opinion.

Here's a pretty good article on ESPN that I'd love for the MLB Network guys to read, though they wouldn't understand any of it:

Searching for Buchholz's Spitball

Clay Buchholz's average FB horizontal movement by year
Year Movement
2009 -8.11
2010 -7.93
2011 -7.06
2012 -6.00
2013 -6.46
5/1/13 -7.58

The pitch in red is the pitch against Jose Bautista that caught David Schoenfield's eye. Unless Buchholz was cheating on every fastball, that pitch was perfectly "normal" on May 1. As Dan Rozenson pointed out on Baseball Prospectus, that pitch fits right in with other fastballs thrown by Buchholz and the rest of the league as well.

Drew Sheppard at FanGraphs overlaid that particular pitch against a pitch from last year in Toronto, and almost no difference was noticeable. But what about those fastballs in green? They are outliers on the day with their near-10-inch horizontal movement, paired with wicked vertical movement and 93-94 mph gas. Plenty of pitchers, such as Max Scherzer, have outlier pitches. Those are excellent pitches -- but they aren't extraordinary. Max Scherzer, Matt Harvey, Jeff Samardzija and Lance Lynn all average more horizontal movement on their two-seamers than Buchholz managed with those three pitches on the day in question.

[soxfan06]

WMB and Salty are going to set records for strikeouts this year. Napoli too.

[Guidas]

Is there any reason an opposing pitcher would throw Middlebrooks a strike at this point? I mean short of a 3-ball count, which seems unlikely the way he fishes outside of the zone, why bother? He'll swing anyway.

[mattpicard]

May 6, 2013 20:01:18 GMT -5 soxfan06 said:

WMB and Salty are going to set records for strikeouts this year. Napoli too.

Sometimes I wonder whether than can actually see the ball. Seriously.

EDIT: Napoli at least has an approach at the plate, even though he swings through an abnormally high amount of pitches in the strike zone. WMB is just lost.