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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 3, 2020 18:27:18 GMT -5
I listened to the first two ceiling podcasts. You get some good information, I agree with a bunch of it. Yet they don't account for out of no where type crap that happens every year. Which is why they have a bunch of older guys rated really high. I liked Riller, yet #1 or #2 top scorer ceiling in the whole draft seems crazy. They talk a ton about Bam, yet he's a guy they'd miss on because he's nothing like the guy he was at Kentucky. Good information, I love more information. Yet you have to account for the unknowns when talking Ceiling. There's no world where Anthony doesn't have a higher ceiling than Riller. Maybe you don't think he reaches it, yet players can gain skills. They can't go from so-so to darn near elite as an athlete. They act like Jaylen Brown is overrated and can't create. Which seems crazy to me. Let me guess they missed bad on him and can't let it go. He's the perfect example of how athletes can gain skills. He does crap now you never dreamed he'd do when in College. They call Hampton the Brown of the draft, yet have his ceiling end of lottery I almost would use those guys as a way to find sleepers. Look at Tillie, not their Ceiling as top 14 best in draft. Which is the unicorn of the draft, senior players being better in the NBA than College. The Chandler Parsons type guys are crazy rare. Young guys do it all the time, not many seniors. It's why they fall in the draft. Yeah, they are accounting for age. It’s ok if you disagree with them :-) They don’t see a world in which certain 19 year olds progress so much they surpass Riller’s offensive package at 23. Some interesting news on Terry: Stud - get him Danny
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 4, 2020 9:48:16 GMT -5
I listened to the first two ceiling podcasts. You get some good information, I agree with a bunch of it. Yet they don't account for out of no where type crap that happens every year. Which is why they have a bunch of older guys rated really high. I liked Riller, yet #1 or #2 top scorer ceiling in the whole draft seems crazy. They talk a ton about Bam, yet he's a guy they'd miss on because he's nothing like the guy he was at Kentucky. Good information, I love more information. Yet you have to account for the unknowns when talking Ceiling. There's no world where Anthony doesn't have a higher ceiling than Riller. Maybe you don't think he reaches it, yet players can gain skills. They can't go from so-so to darn near elite as an athlete. They act like Jaylen Brown is overrated and can't create. Which seems crazy to me. Let me guess they missed bad on him and can't let it go. He's the perfect example of how athletes can gain skills. He does crap now you never dreamed he'd do when in College. They call Hampton the Brown of the draft, yet have his ceiling end of lottery I almost would use those guys as a way to find sleepers. Look at Tillie, not their Ceiling as top 14 best in draft. Which is the unicorn of the draft, senior players being better in the NBA than College. The Chandler Parsons type guys are crazy rare. Young guys do it all the time, not many seniors. It's why they fall in the draft. Yeah, they are accounting for age. It’s ok if you disagree with them :-) They don’t see a world in which certain 19 year olds progress so much they surpass Riller’s offensive package at 23. Some interesting news on Terry: No they really aren't accounting for age when talking ceiling. They acknowledge the crazy out of no where stuff happens, heck they talk a lot about guys like Bam and Brown guys who did just that. Yet won't try and predict who can do that type of stuff. Granted that's the hard part of the draft, yet it happens in almost every draft and a bunch have multiple guys. My problem isn't that they don't project it to happen, it's they don't want to try and do it. They act like a guy like Green who's not a good finisher currently, yet is a very good athlete can't ever improve. They rate his ceiling as well below average. It's why younger athletes go higher in the draft. You can improve skill, you can't improve athletic ability that much. There's a chance Anthony becomes as skilled as Riller. I see where you got pull up shooter, yet they didn't agree. One of them thought that NBA spacing would greatly help him, the other didn't. I agree with a bunch of what they say, heck there comments match a lot of what I said after watching tape. The hard part of the NBA draft isn't doing that though. It's not saying who is the best now, it's who's the best in five years. That requires projecting which guys will gain new skills or greatly improve the ones they have. Danny didn't take guys like Brown, Rozier, Robert Williams and Langford based on what they were, it was what they can become. Heck throw in Rondo, Tatum and Smart into that also. It's really about the stuff we don't know, how hard they work, the players drive to get better, crap like that.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 4, 2020 10:03:25 GMT -5
Yeah, they are accounting for age. It’s ok if you disagree with them :-) They don’t see a world in which certain 19 year olds progress so much they surpass Riller’s offensive package at 23. Some interesting news on Terry: Stud - get him Danny I like him, I won't complain if Danny takes him. I 100% trust Danny overall. Yet you don't worry about his athletic ability? He's not Herro the athlete right? He's not Lewis where his only issue on D seems to be his weight. You're putting a ton of pressure on his offense taking him in the lottery. His testing numbers for me will be huge. You have to worry that he could be worse than Walker on D, at least Walker is very quick and a very good athlete. Who do you comp him to?
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 4, 2020 12:41:13 GMT -5
I like him, I won't complain if Danny takes him. I 100% trust Danny overall. Yet you don't worry about his athletic ability? He's not Herro the athlete right? He's not Lewis where his only issue on D seems to be his weight. You're putting a ton of pressure on his offense taking him in the lottery. His testing numbers for me will be huge. You have to worry that he could be worse than Walker on D, at least Walker is very quick and a very good athlete. Who do you comp him to? I don’t worry about his athleticism no. He’s a smooth athlete, quick first step and smooth change if direction which are way more important as a way to get to you spot in basketball than jumping ability and speed. Paul Pierce, Jason Tatum etc aren’t traditionally elite athletes. Luka Doncic and Goran Dragic aren’t either. NBA is littered with them but the guys are smooth, smart and have pretty quick first steps. Defensively, sure he will have some issues but he’s also known as a high level competition and high IQ player who’s great with passing lanes etc, so he should be ok on that end from a team perspective. I don’t like comping players, they are never accurate and just leave arguments based on how they aren’t the comped player because no two players are the same. We are picking at 14 in a draft with no high elite level prospects. No one isn’t going to have flaws. Terry at least has an elite level skill (shooting) and a ton or overall upside. He’s number one on my board right now for guys who might be available to us.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 4, 2020 14:30:11 GMT -5
I just watched another 15 minutes of tape on him I don't see a quick first step or a guy who's like Tatum and Pierce. Tatum and Pierce aren't crazy athletes, yet they are very good ones. You see many more explosive plays, the ability to drive by guys because they have quick first steps. I noted one explosive play with Terry, a fast break one handed dunk that was impressive. Pierce was a guy that would hide his athletic ability based how he played, if that's Terry that's fine as long as it's there. Hence his athletic testing is big for me.
My worries are highlighted by watching his D. It wasn't his weight that was an issue in College. He looked slow and like he wasn't a good athlete. You can hide it on offense some what, not on D. I don't know how you watch his D and not have some big worries. College guards abused him on the regular. I guess it could be lack of effort.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 4, 2020 16:27:39 GMT -5
I just watched another 15 minutes of tape on him I don't see a quick first step or a guy who's like Tatum and Pierce. Tatum and Pierce aren't crazy athletes, yet they are very good ones. You see many more explosive plays, the ability to drive by guys because they have quick first steps. I noted one explosive play with Terry, a fast break one handed dunk that was impressive. Pierce was a guy that would hide his athletic ability based how he played, if that's Terry that's fine as long as it's there. Hence his athletic testing is big for me. My worries are highlighted by watching his D. It wasn't his weight that was an issue in College. He looked slow and like he wasn't a good athlete. You can hide it on offense some what, not on D. I don't know how you watch his D and not have some big worries. College guards abused him on the regular. I guess it could be lack of effort. Like I said, he will have issues on D and you’re not going to get a perfect prospect at 14. At least he has an elite skill with shooting. You like Maxey and Anthony and neither of them do anything elite at this point. They are projection, which honestly is fine at 14.
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Post by philarhody on Oct 4, 2020 20:28:09 GMT -5
I just watched another 15 minutes of tape on him I don't see a quick first step or a guy who's like Tatum and Pierce. Tatum and Pierce aren't crazy athletes, yet they are very good ones. You see many more explosive plays, the ability to drive by guys because they have quick first steps. I noted one explosive play with Terry, a fast break one handed dunk that was impressive. Pierce was a guy that would hide his athletic ability based how he played, if that's Terry that's fine as long as it's there. Hence his athletic testing is big for me. My worries are highlighted by watching his D. It wasn't his weight that was an issue in College. He looked slow and like he wasn't a good athlete. You can hide it on offense some what, not on D. I don't know how you watch his D and not have some big worries. College guards abused him on the regular. I guess it could be lack of effort. Like I said, he will have issues on D and you’re not going to get a perfect prospect at 14. At least he has an elite skill with shooting. You like Maxey and Anthony and neither of them do anything elite at this point. They are projection, which honestly is fine at 14. I think arguing with Umass is like arguing with the wind. But for the sake of honesty, I think Maxey is an elite close out attacker and borderline elite on ball defender and I think Anthony is an elite pull-up shooter.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 5, 2020 5:43:26 GMT -5
Like I said, he will have issues on D and you’re not going to get a perfect prospect at 14. At least he has an elite skill with shooting. You like Maxey and Anthony and neither of them do anything elite at this point. They are projection, which honestly is fine at 14. I think arguing with Umass is like arguing with the wind. But for the sake of honesty, I think Maxey is an elite close out attacker and borderline elite on ball defender and I think Anthony is an elite pull-up shooter. Maxey might be an elite in ball defender if he can handle bigger players. Does his attacking close outs much matter if he can’t shoot? His FT percentage is encouraging and he got to the line. My issue is he’s a 6’3 shooting guard who can’t create or shoot. So right now he’s a shooting guard who guards point guards but can’t shoot or create on offense. Now it seems that Kentucky players seem to have hidden skills when they leave there I have pretty good hopes for Maxey which is why I do like him overall. Cole Anthony is one of my least favorite players in the draft but if they took him, I’d talk myself into him by saying: he was the top prospect coming out of college for some, he had a terrible team and dealt with injuries.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 5, 2020 11:43:06 GMT -5
Kentucky played three guards all the time, all three are in this draft. Hagans was the PG. Maxey was known as a very good and even seen great shooter coming into the year based on high school and all those all-star tournaments. He's got good form and the list of Kentucky guards who don't play well in College is rather big. I'm not worried about his shooting one bit. If you think he can't shoot your only looking at a small sample size, not his whole body of work. He scores on all three levels. Good not great athlete, yet has no issues blowing by College guards on the regular. Very good defender, already NBA body at 6'3" 6'6" wingspan. Likely 210-220 five years from now, giving him the mass to be switchable in the NBA. Watch Smart, it's not just height, Body mass matters on D. It allows you to play physical on D.
Anthony is easily the best athlete of the three. He can play above the rim. We didn't see a ton of that in College, yet his High School tape is crazy. Very good defender that is physical and competes. Can do it all, he just wasn't efficient in College and played Irving type Basketball. Yet he's still more impressive than Jaylen Brown was in College, shows much more skill and ability already. The only way I stay away is if he's Irving in that he's not coachable. I love him for Steven's system. A bench role making him earn it, over going to a crappy team and just being handed a starting role. Where he goes really matters with him. Yet just like with Maxey, the space of the NBA helps him. The paint isn't clogged with bodies like in College.
I love Terry's shooting and skill level. Yet he's easily the worst athlete of the three. People call Maxey a SG and right now he's more that than PG. Yet Maxey averaged the same amount of assists playing SG that Terry did playing PG. Terry is easily the worst defender of the three and it's not even close. It's more two of the better defenders versus one of the worst. Anthony and Maxey are ready to be rotation pieces day one, Terry is more of a Robert Williams type guy. You have to question if he's more SG than PG in the NBA and that would be a disaster for him. He's the best shooter and very skilled, as you see with Doncic in today's NBA skill level goes a long way. Yet I think Maxey and Anthony will both be good shooters and able to score on all three levels better. They are just quicker and more athletic. If RJP is right that he's like Pierce and he uses his skill level in a way that hides his true athletic ability that changes things slightly. Combine will be huge for him. If he tests close to Anthony and Maxey that would change things. Yet I don't expect that, yet crazy shit happens all the time with athletic testing.
Now the real question for me isn't how I rank those guys based on upside, fit and crap like that because no way we have the pick of all three. There's a good chance both Maxey and Anthony are gone. So it's really Terry versus who else is available and for me that's were he starts to look better. You start comparing him to Lewis and Hampton. Yet it's also a crazy deep PG group and some of the best value could be guys like Riller in the late first. Hampton is the swing for the fences Brown type guy, yet is way more raw than even Terry. You're just putting a ton of pressure on Terry's shooting and scoring in general because he doesn't really do anything else. I didn't see a single play like Herro did last night in the Finals taking Rondo straight to the rim watching Terry's tape. Now given today's NBA he might be worth the gamble. Is he better than Isaiah Joe or even Bane in the NBA though? Lot's of crazy good shooters in this draft. The combine will be huge for most of them. There's a reason why Terry is listed as a boom or bust guy.
I think another important part is how do these guys fit our system and match up with Tatum and Brown. Those guys loved playing with an athletic guy like Rozier, who pushed the ball. They just fit together and brought out the best in each player.
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Post by philarhody on Oct 5, 2020 14:47:15 GMT -5
I think arguing with Umass is like arguing with the wind. But for the sake of honesty, I think Maxey is an elite close out attacker and borderline elite on ball defender and I think Anthony is an elite pull-up shooter. Maxey might be an elite in ball defender if he can handle bigger players. Does his attacking close outs much matter if he can’t shoot? His FT percentage is encouraging and he got to the line. My issue is he’s a 6’3 shooting guard who can’t create or shoot. So right now he’s a shooting guard who guards point guards but can’t shoot or create on offense. Now it seems that Kentucky players seem to have hidden skills when they leave there I have pretty good hopes for Maxey which is why I do like him overall. Cole Anthony is one of my least favorite players in the draft but if they took him, I’d talk myself into him by saying: he was the top prospect coming out of college for some, he had a terrible team and dealt with injuries. I think Maxey has to shoot 34-35 percent from three to unlock his elite slashing package. That’s still below average NBA shooting, and anything below that is bad. I don’t see him being a bad NBA shooter, but if he is bad, teams will just treat him like Dort where they leave him open and deal with the consequence. He does have a low release point, which makes me a little bit worried that he won’t be able to shoot it around well guarded screens and dribble handoffs. I’m with you 100% on Anthony. I don’t see “crazy athlete” at all when I watch him, high school or college. I see a good athlete with some verticality who is limited laterally and not very long.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 5, 2020 15:04:17 GMT -5
For the record - just to be clear - when I say Maxey is a guy who can’t shoot right now, I’m saying that as where he is right now based on what he did in college. I have hope his form and free throw percentage will translate to him becoming a very good shooter but that’s projection. I was just talking right now.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 5, 2020 17:34:23 GMT -5
We are drafting guys for what they are in five years right? You're not drafting Terry because he's a stud right now. He's darn near unplayable right now.
In regards to Anthony, go watch his high School dunk tapes. He can jump over a guy and throw down a dunk. He dunked from the FT line, took him three times yet that's crazy for a small guard.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 6, 2020 12:09:30 GMT -5
If you want a shooter, rumors are that Buddy Hield is available. I'd rather Turner, yet it's an option. He's a guy you want bombing a ton of three a game. Yet not a very good defender.
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Post by philarhody on Oct 6, 2020 15:06:51 GMT -5
If you want a shooter, rumors are that Buddy Hield is available. I'd rather Turner, yet it's an option. He's a guy you want bombing a ton of three a game. Yet not a very good defender. I would probably give up Hayward and 26 for Hield. Not for Turner though.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 6, 2020 16:22:24 GMT -5
Interesting. You can make a very strong case Hayward is or at least was the better player last year. Much more complete game than Hield, yet you could also argue Heild fits better. Good luck selling out to stop Tatum, Walker and Brown if you'll leave Heild open. Yet that's also basically all he does. He doesn't create much, doesn't drive much, doesn't get many FT or play good D. He's also really old for a guy just starting his second contract. It's interesting depending what you want.
I think Turner is a better overall player, his D matches our team more. He's younger on a better deal and has upside left. It's really what do you want type crap. I see both sides, yet if I'm adding a pick it's for Turner. Yet if you like advanced stats, they all rate Hayward as better than both guys. He's likely better with a bigger role, than 4th option on the Celtics. Either we should be getting picks or other teams eat some contracts like VP or no picks.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 6, 2020 17:49:02 GMT -5
Pass on Hield, YAY on Turner.
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Post by philarhody on Oct 6, 2020 19:45:33 GMT -5
Interesting. You can make a very strong case Hayward is or at least was the better player last year. Much more complete game than Hield, yet you could also argue Heild fits better. Good luck selling out to stop Tatum, Walker and Brown if you'll leave Heild open. Yet that's also basically all he does. He doesn't create much, doesn't drive much, doesn't get many FT or play good D. He's also really old for a guy just starting his second contract. It's interesting depending what you want. I think Turner is a better overall player, his D matches our team more. He's younger on a better deal and has upside left. It's really what do you want type crap. I see both sides, yet if I'm adding a pick it's for Turner. Yet if you like advanced stats, they all rate Hayward as better than both guys. He's likely better with a bigger role, than 4th option on the Celtics. Either we should be getting picks or other teams eat some contracts like VP or no picks. I think I’m probably in the minority. But Turner’s D in space and poor rebounding worries me a little bit. Hayward’s the better player of the three. But Hield is younger and a cost controlled asset.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 7, 2020 6:01:44 GMT -5
I think a lot of trading Hayward comes down to extension possibilities. If you can’t extend him reasonably then a trade to keep that salary spot makes sense.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 7, 2020 13:19:02 GMT -5
Interesting. You can make a very strong case Hayward is or at least was the better player last year. Much more complete game than Hield, yet you could also argue Heild fits better. Good luck selling out to stop Tatum, Walker and Brown if you'll leave Heild open. Yet that's also basically all he does. He doesn't create much, doesn't drive much, doesn't get many FT or play good D. He's also really old for a guy just starting his second contract. It's interesting depending what you want. I think Turner is a better overall player, his D matches our team more. He's younger on a better deal and has upside left. It's really what do you want type crap. I see both sides, yet if I'm adding a pick it's for Turner. Yet if you like advanced stats, they all rate Hayward as better than both guys. He's likely better with a bigger role, than 4th option on the Celtics. Either we should be getting picks or other teams eat some contracts like VP or no picks. I think I’m probably in the minority. But Turner’s D in space and poor rebounding worries me a little bit. Hayward’s the better player of the three. But Hield is younger and a cost controlled asset. I have some worries about him, yet he showed in the playoffs against Bam what he can do. He was the better player in that series 15.8, 10.8 and 4 blocks a game. He shot 63.6 efg%, holding Bam to 47.9. Against us Bam shot 60.8%. Turner is one of the best paint protectors in the NBA. He's awkward, always has been. You watch him run up the court and it looks like he's in cement. Yet in the paint he moves very well, can switch on guys and is great at recovering. He's also the rare can shot it and protect the paint type guy. If he can limit Bam, who are we worried about? I've watch tape and he can defend Embiid and Giannis. He's impressive, guys want no part of him because he blocks so many shots. It changes how players and teams play. He'd help teach Robert Williams how to defend. That combo excites me long-term. That's 48 minutes of shot blocking craziness. The shooter and the rim runner. Turner is also young and has upside. Shows flashes of post moves, yet not consistent. Age matches Tatum and Brown which is big for me. I'm not going to say Hield is a bad, I can see the fit. He could do a lot better as the 4th guy than trying to be #1 on the King's. Yet you still run into having a hard time playing your five best players, just like with Hayward. Your going much more offense over D. Is Hield OK with being a 6th man? Is he a better fit for that role than Hayward? A lot of my thought process is finding the next Turner is much harder than finding the next Hield. I see a bunch of guys in the draft that can be Hield over at least close to him. Guys like Terry, Bane and Joe. I only see one guy who might be Turner and that's Jaylen Smith. Yet he's got a long way to go to reach Turner's level and likely never does. Interesting stuff, two options that give you two totally different looks long-term. That both make sense for both teams. Both teams have doubles at those positions and need to make moves. I think Hayward fits both teams well and would make them better. I don't think it's crap either because both teams could or should be playoff teams with him. Gives him a bigger role for his next contract. One other thing about Turner, if you get him, you can trade Theis for something else to help the bench. I'd imagine his value is fairly high right now at his salary.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 7, 2020 13:35:19 GMT -5
I think a lot of trading Hayward comes down to extension possibilities. If you can’t extend him reasonably then a trade to keep that salary spot makes sense. There's also the issue that you can't play your best five with Hayward on the roster, so ideally the roster needs some balancing.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 7, 2020 13:53:16 GMT -5
If you're Hayward why would you sign an extension in Boston? You pick up your option, that's just a smart business move. Yet he's the fourth scorer/creator on this team now and it's only going to get worse as Tatum/Brown grow. Sure if he's willing to take a massive pay cut and play a 6th man role I might do it. It just seems a trade is best for both parties.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 7, 2020 14:32:14 GMT -5
If you're Hayward why would you sign an extension in Boston? You pick up your option, that's just a smart business move. Yet he's the fourth scorer/creator on this team now and it's only going to get worse as Tatum/Brown grow. Sure if he's willing to take a massive pay cut and play a 6th man role I might do it. It just seems a trade is best for both parties. It’s very speculative, but there could be plenty of reasons (not saying these are the reality but we don’t know so play along and yes we agree there are reasons he’d want to leave too so let’s not argue about that): 1. Maybe he likes it here 2. Maybe he feels this is the best place to try and win a championship. 3. Maybe he knows he has to take a major pay cut regardless of where he goes and he doesn’t want to go to a shitty team at this stage of his career. Also, he can pick up his option then negotiate an extension even if signed later. The point for the Celtics is finding his dollar range and if he’s willing to sign one.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 7, 2020 14:34:00 GMT -5
I think a lot of trading Hayward comes down to extension possibilities. If you can’t extend him reasonably then a trade to keep that salary spot makes sense. There's also the issue that you can't play your best five with Hayward on the roster, so ideally the roster needs some balancing. This ONLY makes sense if you are trading for a Center so Heild talk makes no sense if this is your stance.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 7, 2020 14:40:34 GMT -5
By the way, the Celtics would probably have to take back a second player if they tried to trade Hyward for Turner because salaries won’t match. That’s not ideal and it’d probably be someone not that good with a lousy multi year salary like Jeremy Lamb.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 7, 2020 15:09:18 GMT -5
If you're Hayward why would you sign an extension in Boston? You pick up your option, that's just a smart business move. Yet he's the fourth scorer/creator on this team now and it's only going to get worse as Tatum/Brown grow. Sure if he's willing to take a massive pay cut and play a 6th man role I might do it. It just seems a trade is best for both parties. It’s very speculative, but there could be plenty of reasons (not saying these are the reality but we don’t know so play along and yes we agree there are reasons he’d want to leave too so let’s not argue about that): 1. Maybe he likes it here 2. Maybe he feels this is the best place to try and win a championship. 3. Maybe he knows he has to take a major pay cut regardless of where he goes and he doesn’t want to go to a shitty team at this stage of his career. Also, he can pick up his option then negotiate an extension even if signed later. The point for the Celtics is finding his dollar range and if he’s willing to sign one. Sure that could be true, it just seems more unlikely to me. Biggest things being role and money. Other teams likely offer him more for both. He absolutely is taking a massive pay cut, it's to what degree. For me on the Celtics it's like 15 million a year, I can see other teams going much higher than that. He's just a luxury for us that isn't a perfect fit. This isn't the team he was signed to be a part of, that was Irving, Horford and him.
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