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Boston Celtics 2013-14 Season
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Post by jmei on Jan 18, 2014 21:17:36 GMT -5
The point is that he is a pretty great jump shooter, at least in terms of long twos. Calling it "from a spot or two" way undersells him-- he shoots incredibly well from all the spots where he shoots frequently, and considering the elbows are the location with the second-most shot attempts league-wide (only trailing at-the-rim shots), coming in 4th in the entire league there is not some trivial stat. Overall, he shot 48% from 16-23 feet, which was 6th in the league last year among players who shot 3+ attempts per game from that distance, just a hair behind Chris Paul and Dirk at 50%. He still can't shoot threes, but he was an elite shooter of long two-point jump shots last year, and if that's not a great jump shooter, I don't know what is.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 19, 2014 1:05:12 GMT -5
I don't know Jmei. I struggle this discussion simply because I don't want to seem like I don't respect his game. However, even if my 1 or 2 spots is an exaggeration, I still can't get on board with him being a "great jump shooter".
The stats tell a story but it's not of him being a great jump shooter as far as I'm concerned. It's of him doing a great job playing within himself. As noted he's poor from three point land. Now that alone doesn't completely disqualify him from being a great jump shooter, but he has other things he's poor at. I don't have the numbers but I'm sure they are out there. If they prove me wrong, then I'm more then happy changing my tune.
Watching him he's not strong in transition with a quick pull up jumper and with basically no evidence I'm comfortable saying he's not good coming off screens and pulling up.
Basically, he is very good at hitting an open mid range shot when he's spotted up. Very very valuable for his game and he's done well to improve that into a weapon. I'll give you that he's great at that.
Yes, I understand we are splitting hairs here but that's what this discussion is all about. He's virtually unguarded when he takes his jumpers.
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Post by Don Caballero on Jan 19, 2014 19:51:42 GMT -5
The point is that he is a pretty great jump shooter, at least in terms of long twos. Calling it "from a spot or two" way undersells him-- he shoots incredibly well from all the spots where he shoots frequently, and considering the elbows are the location with the second-most shot attempts league-wide (only trailing at-the-rim shots), coming in 4th in the entire league there is not some trivial stat. Overall, he shot 48% from 16-23 feet, which was 6th in the league last year among players who shot 3+ attempts per game from that distance, just a hair behind Chris Paul and Dirk at 50%. He still can't shoot threes, but he was an elite shooter of long two-point jump shots last year, and if that's not a great jump shooter, I don't know what is. I don't think he's a great jump shooter, one of the bigger reason why this percentage is so high is that a lot of those are blatantly open. He is a hard worker and he's improving with his shot up to the point where he can make anything the D gives him. But let's see how he does with fewer offensive options and opposing defenses also having this data. Rondo is a tad overrated, he's a nice PG but I would not have him in the Top 5 - maybe not even in the top 10 since the position is insanely deep. He's more like a George Hill or a Mike Conley in the sense that he's a nice piece to have, but by no means should he be a team's focal star. His TS% actually got worse for 4 straight years before having a better production in fewer games last season and his turnovers per game are still going up since the 07-08 season.
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Post by jmei on Jan 20, 2014 17:09:23 GMT -5
I'm sympathetic to the argument that he shoots so well because opposing defenses go under picks and leave him open. But I think you're both underrating how important it is that he hits open jumpers at near-elite levels. It opens things up for both himself and others in a way that is crucial if a team is to succeed with Rondo as their offensive centerpiece.
Rondo is a much, much better player than George Hill or Mike Conley. He's perhaps overrated since many folks fetishize the old-school "true point guard," but he's a more much dynamic player than either of those guys. My major complaint with Rondo is that his effort level definitely trails off during the regular season, especially on defense. But playoff Rondo can absolutely be the second-best player on a championship team (see, e.g., 2009 and 2010 playoffs).
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Jan 22, 2014 11:45:40 GMT -5
Kicking around ideas on the trade machine and this is what I came up with: espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=kvstfnqBoston gets a nice expiring contract in Gordon and they finally get Asik. They also get a young, controllable, 20-year-old SF in MKG that will replace Green in the lineup and would be a enticing trade chip on draft day or later in the off-season. Depending on his development, you could also keep him around. In addition, they get rid of the Green and Bass contracts. It is obviously tanking move because it decimates the offense, but, overall, they get some assets for players that are not going to be part of their future (yes, I mean you Jeff Green) and open up playing time for their young big men. Houston dumps Asik (who has given them pretty much nothing) and Lin (who they are starting 2nd rounder Patrick Beverly over), get Bass, an experienced big man who they can move around in the front court as they see fit, Tolliver, who is one of the best 3-point-shooting 4's in the game and can be and elite role player for them, and they get Sessions to replace some of the bench scoring that Lin leaves behind and who gives them more cap flexibility moving forward. The Charlotte Bobcats are a very, very good defensive team (6th) and their obvious need is in the scoring department (28th). Big Al is doing his part, but they are just a dreadful offensive team outside of him and Walker. If they want to maximize Jefferson's tenure as a Bobcat, they need to fix that problem. Green is a scorer and he is a big-time offensive upgrade over MKG. Hump is a skilled, front court body that Charlotte desperately needs to pair with Jefferson to help their rebounding woes (23rd). Hump also helps them by giving Zeller one more year to adjust to up his game and not have to be a major factor, which he hasn't been. Lin can step in while Walker is out and upgrade their bench when he comes back. The obvious drawbacks are that Charlotte loses a very valuable player in MKG (they took with #2 pick in 2012) and they have to take on Lin's contract, but they made the decision this off-season to sign Al and try to pull out of the sucking mode that they have been in and if they don't make some sort of move, then they will be stuck in the area between tanking and contending, while wasting Jefferson's career. Maybe some picks are thrown in? Thoughts?
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Post by bmitchsox on Jan 22, 2014 12:11:10 GMT -5
Makes a ton of sense from the C's perspective if they don't have to throw in any firsts. I think it works for the other teams as well, but we probably have to give HOU a 2nd, maybe 2.
Rondo - Bradley - MKG - Sully - Asik to go along with a lottery pick looks pretty damn solid to me! Nice work
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Post by jmei on Jan 22, 2014 12:16:02 GMT -5
It's a creative idea, but I don't think the Rockets go for it unless the Celtics throw in a strong pick (i.e., not the Clippers' or the protected 76ers pick). They are in no hurry to move Lin, who has been pretty productive and fits their pick-and-roll system well. They also turned down an Asik-for-Bass trade earlier because they want a real long-term asset as well, and Tolliver doesn't come close to fitting that profile (he's shot well from 3 this year but doesn't have a strong track record of doing so; he also does pretty much nothing else well).
If the Celtics include, say, the Nets/Atlanta pick or one of the later Nets picks, maybe the Rockets are more interested, but then it'd effectively be Bass, Green, and the pick for Asik and MKG, which is a lot (unless you're a big believer in MKG). I'd still probably do it, but it becomes a lot closer.
I'm also not sure the Bobcats do it, because MKG is probably their best long-term asset. But Michael Jordan is a competitive dude, and might be convinced to do a win-now move. I think that's underselling his management skills, though; they're the team that's really getting fleeced in this trade.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 22, 2014 19:33:11 GMT -5
I'm sympathetic to the argument that he shoots so well because opposing defenses go under picks and leave him open. But I think you're both underrating how important it is that he hits open jumpers at near-elite levels. It opens things up for both himself and others in a way that is crucial if a team is to succeed with Rondo as their offensive centerpiece. Rondo is a much, much better player than George Hill or Mike Conley. He's perhaps overrated since many folks fetishize the old-school "true point guard," but he's a more much dynamic player than either of those guys. My major complaint with Rondo is that his effort level definitely trails off during the regular season, especially on defense. But playoff Rondo can absolutely be the second-best player on a championship team (see, e.g., 2009 and 2010 playoffs). I don't think I'm under-rating this skill at all or him as a PG. It's been a big time addition to his game I was just quibbling over calling him an elite jump shooter simply because I don't think he's diverse enough to be given that broad of a term. Narrow it down then I can get on board. Also, I think he's a franchise player. Other then Chris Paul, I can't think of a PG who is clearly better. Parker? Maybe, but too old D. Williams? No thanks Rose? Maybe, but second injury makes it a no Westbrook? Stud, but too mch of a scoring point. Team is actually better when he's not on the court. OKC should've kept Harden instead of him. Curry - don't look at him as a true PG Wall/Lawson - these two are intriguing but too but can't make a definitive either way... Won't keep going, because the point is he's as good as anyone else not named Chris Paul. Especially, when the money is on the line.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 22, 2014 19:36:28 GMT -5
By the way, love the losing lately and the winning by other teams. Top 5 pick is within reach. Rumor has it that Parker may stay in school for a second year. The Duke fan, has he hoping this is true, but as a Celtics fan it's not good. I like another Duke player, Rodney Hood. He's going to be a nice NBA player. I'd like him in a Celtics uni. His stock I'd starting to climb. I'd take him over Wiggins.
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Post by bmitchsox on Jan 25, 2014 14:28:32 GMT -5
Loving these losses! Wiggins is starting to scare me a little, he reminds me of Jeff Green. One game he looks great, the next you forget he's even on the floor. Im really hoping we can get Embiid or Parker. I wouldn't be surprised to see Danny trade up to get a top 3 guy considering our surplus of picks.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 25, 2014 15:19:22 GMT -5
Wiggins has bust written all over him. There are a lot of players I'd want before him
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Post by bmitchsox on Jan 25, 2014 18:25:51 GMT -5
Yeah i'd take Embiid, Parker, Smart, Exum and Randle over Wiggins.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 25, 2014 19:49:17 GMT -5
Truthfully there are more then that for me. I seriously think he's going to be terrible. Demarcus Beasley. Now if he'd stay in school and develop his game, he could turn into something should he work at it, but he'd be dumb to turn down the millions. Just hope he invests it. Although Beasley got a team to pay him more money.
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Post by Don Caballero on Jan 26, 2014 0:10:56 GMT -5
Wiggins has bust written all over him. There are a lot of players I'd want before him I'm not sure about "bust", but he has "Harrison Barnes" indeed written all over. There's a non negligible chance that he falls out of the Top 5, who would have thought it prior to the season huh? Unless something insane happens, I don't see Embiid not going 1st overall now. Which is good, because he's the best prospect in this draft.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jan 26, 2014 2:54:11 GMT -5
Harrison Barnes wishes he had Andrew Wiggins' athleticism. I'm not much of a basket ball fan but from my limited viewing of both Wiggins' athleticism stands out as a big difference, I mean at least Wiggins can beat someone off the dribble.
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Post by jmei on Jan 26, 2014 10:29:19 GMT -5
All the amateur psychology about a killer instinct aside, I'd be absolutely thrilled if the Celtics got Wiggins. He's still got killer athleticism, great size (6'8", 7' wingspan), and flashes all the skills you want from a franchise player. The expectations were just way too high for Wiggins-- he hasn't shown dominant performance, but the tools are all there, and he just turned out to be less polished than anticipated. If he works on his handle and his shot and he physically matures (i.e., puts in the time in the weight room), his ceiling is as high as any non-Lebron player in the NBA.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 26, 2014 10:32:29 GMT -5
Not so sure about Randle. For one, we have Sully and, if he can keep his weight/conditioning in check, I think PF is all set. Also, though I haven't seen the stats to prove it, I keep hearing that their are studies that suggest a relationship between steals and success in the NBA (lazy-man paraphrase on my part). While this is the season for finding weaknesses in prospects, that one seems to have a verifiable and historical basis for JR.
I'm definitely intrigued by Exum (though I recognize that the foreign players get the benefit of less scrutiny and we'd likely find as many flaws as we are with the college kids). I like Ford's first mock that had us taking him (I'd prefer Embiid) and Chris Walker (stud athelete who can shoot but has yet to play for Florida bc of academic reasons).
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Post by jbberlo on Jan 26, 2014 11:10:48 GMT -5
The only guy id take over wiggins is embiid. Nobody other than ebiid has even close to the potential wiggins has. To win in the NBA you need stars so if we get the chance to take a star you gotta take him
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Post by saysbill on Jan 26, 2014 12:01:43 GMT -5
If the C's select Exum or Smart, do they trade Rondo? Or if they are the best player available, do they package that pick for a proven player?
My choices are 1. Embiid 2. Wiggins 3. Parker 4. Exum/Smart/Harris
texs, I also loved the projection of Walker with the 2nd first rounder. There will still be good players available at that spot, but I want them to go for someone who can be a stud. In a rebuild, he will have time to develop. We missed out on that last year by selecting Olynyk over Giannis (who Ainge really liked). Knowing they were going to rebuild, I wish they went with the upside of Giannis even though his floor was lower than with the safe, moderate reward selection of Olynyk.
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Post by Don Caballero on Jan 26, 2014 12:43:22 GMT -5
Harrison Barnes wishes he had Andrew Wiggins' athleticism. I'm not much of a basket ball fan but from my limited viewing of both Wiggins' athleticism stands out as a big difference, I mean at least Wiggins can beat someone off the dribble. I actually didn't make my point clear, I meant Barnes in the sense that prior to the that season, Barnes was viewed as a possible 1st overall pick who fell out of the Top 5 because of concerns raised during his college season. The same thing might happen to Wiggins. If T.J Warren falls down to the Hawks pick, I don't see how the Celtics pass up on him. His upside might be limited, but his scoring ability will translate into the NBA and it's not like he's a pure gunner. He's my favorite late 1st round dude this year. Believe.
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Post by amfox1 on Jan 26, 2014 15:26:48 GMT -5
Latest ESPN mock 2.0:
BOS takes Exum at #4 and Walker at #19
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jan 26, 2014 15:35:03 GMT -5
I actually didn't make my point clear, I meant Barnes in the sense that prior to the that season, Barnes was viewed as a possible 1st overall pick who fell out of the Top 5 because of concerns raised during his college season. The same thing might happen to Wiggins. Oh ok I thought it was a player comp, my mistake. As jmei said earlier and I agree with Wiggin's athleticism is a separator for me. I think his game will translate better to the NBA, he'll be able to dominate the ball more. I don't know where he will fall, teams are stupid sometimes, but if you get him with the 5th pick that team should be more than giggitty happy. As far as who I like from my limited research (mainly YouTube and games I've seen) I like Wiggins, Parker, Embid, Smart, Gordon, Exum ( looked to me like Westbrook lite). I was really impressed with Embid and see why the #1 overall hype. For a guy with such limited experience he showed really good moves download and with his athleticism that's dynamite. That's a big I can get behind. Really you get a top 7 pick in this draft and you have a chance to get a franchise guy if things break right.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 26, 2014 20:51:57 GMT -5
All the amateur psychology about a killer instinct aside, I'd be absolutely thrilled if the Celtics got Wiggins. He's still got killer athleticism, great size (6'8", 7' wingspan), and flashes all the skills you want from a franchise player. The expectations were just way too high for Wiggins-- he hasn't shown dominant performance, but the tools are all there, and he just turned out to be less polished than anticipated. If he works on his handle and his shot and he physically matures (i.e., puts in the time in the weight room), his ceiling is as high as any non-Lebron player in the NBA. So if he learns how to dribble and shoot and gets stronger and picks up a killer instinct he can be a star? Sounds like a lot of the recent draft busts. I joke, sort of. It is unfair of me to characterize him so strongly with no real knowledge of his drive and work ethic. If he has that relentless work ethic, like a Rondo, then I'd take him, but if not I wouldn't touch him with an early pick.
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Post by jmei on Jan 27, 2014 11:30:23 GMT -5
All the amateur psychology about a killer instinct aside, I'd be absolutely thrilled if the Celtics got Wiggins. He's still got killer athleticism, great size (6'8", 7' wingspan), and flashes all the skills you want from a franchise player. The expectations were just way too high for Wiggins-- he hasn't shown dominant performance, but the tools are all there, and he just turned out to be less polished than anticipated. If he works on his handle and his shot and he physically matures (i.e., puts in the time in the weight room), his ceiling is as high as any non-Lebron player in the NBA. So if he learns how to dribble and shoot and gets stronger and picks up a killer instinct he can be a star? Sounds like a lot of the recent draft busts. I joke, sort of. It is unfair of me to characterize him so strongly with no real knowledge of his drive and work ethic. If he has that relentless work ethic, like a Rondo, then I'd take him, but if not I wouldn't touch him with an early pick. It's still all about unreasonable expectations. Just because Wiggins didn't match the hype doesn't mean he's not a great draft prospect. He still needs a fair bit of polish, but he's not just a Gerald Green-esque athlete, either. The fact that he's going below future role players like Aaron Gordon in some mock drafts is flabbergasting to me.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 27, 2014 14:01:47 GMT -5
I think people are tired of the unpolished player who's a great athlete doing next to nothing in the NBA. Gerald Greene was like the 15th pick. He could also shoot a bit though. The fact of the matter is, NBA draft picks bust at a huge rate and that's because these players are so unpolished and GMs have been drafting for ideal upside. I need to know more about Wiggins work ethic and drive to fulfill his potential.
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