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4/23-4/25 Red Sox @ Guardians Series Thread
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Post by trotman on Apr 23, 2024 13:58:50 GMT -5
That would be a no go for Devers tonight. At this point why not retroactively put him on the IL? It's only going to cost them a handful of games and I'd rather him get right.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 23, 2024 13:59:09 GMT -5
I would like to see all of Abreu, Duran, O'Neill, Refsnyder, Yoshida in the lineup basically every day. Let Refsnyder play 1B. Sadly I think we're going to get Bobby D every day instead.
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Post by trotman on Apr 23, 2024 14:00:49 GMT -5
I would like to see all of Abreu, Duran, O'Neill, Refsnyder, Yoshida in the lineup basically every day. Let Refsnyder play 1B. Sadly I think we're going to get Bobby D every day instead. I missed that Yoshida isn't playing and against another RH. That makes me a little nervous.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 23, 2024 14:00:51 GMT -5
That would be a no go for Devers tonight. At this point why not retroactively put him on the IL? It's only going to cost them a handful of games and I'd rather him get right. The answer to why not might be that they literally have no one to call up for the active roster spot. They're all out of healthy 40 man position players.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 23, 2024 14:01:44 GMT -5
Many here seem MUCH higher on Kavadas than I am, but maybe I'm missing something. To those who want to see him called up, what about his Dalbecian strike out numbers in Portland and Worcester make you think he'll be better than Dalbec? I can see the plate discipline, but that's got to be more than offset by worse base running and defense. I don't have an opinion on calling up Kavadas, really, but I would just point out that "strikes out a lot" =/= "Dalbecian strikeout numbers." Dalbec hasn't had a K rate lower than 40% in a month since June 2022. Since July 1st of that year he has a 45.7% K rate over 230 PAs. In his last 103 PAs it's 53.4%. Bear in mind this is the stat that normalizes quickest, at around 60 PAs. Kavadas might be a poor man's Joey Gallo, but that would still be a significant improvement over the kind of hitter Dalbec's been for almost two years now.
You could also see if he comes up and does that thing where a call-up has a hot streak in their first month before the league adjusts to him. That would bridge the gap nicely until Casas (hopefully...) comes back.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 23, 2024 14:04:59 GMT -5
Many here seem MUCH higher on Kavadas than I am, but maybe I'm missing something. To those who want to see him called up, what about his Dalbecian strike out numbers in Portland and Worcester make you think he'll be better than Dalbec? I can see the plate discipline, but that's got to be more than offset by worse base running and defense. I don't have an opinion on calling up Kavadas, really, but I would just point out that "strikes out a lot" =/= "Dalbecian strikeout numbers." Dalbec hasn't had a K rate lower than 40% in a month since June 2022. Since July 1st of that year he has a 45.7% K rate over 230 PAs. In his last 103 PAs it's 53.4%. Bear in mind this is the stat that normalizes quickest, at around 60 PAs. Kavadas might be a poor man's Joey Gallo, but that would still be a significant improvement over the kind of hitter Dalbec's been for almost two years now.
You could also see if he comes up and does that thing where a call-up has a hot streak in their first month before the league adjusts to him. That would bridge the gap nicely until Casas (hopefully...) comes back.
That's in the MLB though, Kavadas has a 32% K Rate in AAA so far on his life, and actually had an even higher K rate in AA. How many guys have an >30% K rate in AAA and are able to be average MLB hitters? (Serious question, I have no idea, but my sense is it is a low number). Before Dalbec's good MLB stretch in 2020-2021 he struck out <25% of the time across AA and AAA in 2019.
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Post by greenmonster on Apr 23, 2024 14:09:20 GMT -5
The one time being on base really did a number on Heineman's hammy Sounds like a Heine injury
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Apr 23, 2024 14:10:50 GMT -5
Many here seem MUCH higher on Kavadas than I am, but maybe I'm missing something. To those who want to see him called up, what about his Dalbecian strike out numbers in Portland and Worcester make you think he'll be better than Dalbec? I can see the plate discipline, but that's got to be more than offset by worse base running and defense. I am not particularly high on Kavadas but he is one of the guys I have followed at Portland. He is doing the right things at AAA. If that is not enough, tonights 8th and 9th hitters are Dalbec and Reyes. No harm in trying something different. We are not talking a replacement for Casas forever, after all.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 23, 2024 14:10:50 GMT -5
I don't have an opinion on calling up Kavadas, really, but I would just point out that "strikes out a lot" =/= "Dalbecian strikeout numbers." Dalbec hasn't had a K rate lower than 40% in a month since June 2022. Since July 1st of that year he has a 45.7% K rate over 230 PAs. In his last 103 PAs it's 53.4%. Bear in mind this is the stat that normalizes quickest, at around 60 PAs. Kavadas might be a poor man's Joey Gallo, but that would still be a significant improvement over the kind of hitter Dalbec's been for almost two years now.
You could also see if he comes up and does that thing where a call-up has a hot streak in their first month before the league adjusts to him. That would bridge the gap nicely until Casas (hopefully...) comes back.
That's in the MLB though, Kavadas has a 32% K Rate in AAA so far on his life, and actually had an even higher K rate in AA. How many guys have an >30% K rate in AAA and are able to be average MLB hitters? (Serious question, I have no idea, but my sense is it is a low number). Before Dalbec's good MLB stretch in 2020-2021 he struck out <25% of the time across AA and AAA in 2019. Well again, "strikes out a lot" =/= "Dalbecian." In a big sample last season Dalbec struck out 34% of the time at AAA and he seems to have deteriorated since then. Kavadas is at 30% in AAA this season, and he also has higher BB rates than Dalbec ever did.
I wouldn't expect Kavadas to be an average MLB hitter. But that's a much higher bar than "better than Dalbec." (I'm not even trying to argue for Kavadas to get called up; just that there's a reasonable case that he'd be a better hitter right now than Dalbec.)
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Post by incandenza on Apr 23, 2024 14:11:58 GMT -5
Meanwhile, I guess Yoshida, who's been hot, is injured now too, and sure why not.
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Post by asm18 on Apr 23, 2024 14:13:21 GMT -5
I would like to see all of Abreu, Duran, O'Neill, Refsnyder, Yoshida in the lineup basically every day. Let Refsnyder play 1B. Sadly I think we're going to get Bobby D every day instead. I missed that Yoshida isn't playing and against another RH. That makes me a little nervous. Yeah something isn't adding up there. Yoshi hits a clutch homerun on 4/20 in Pittsburgh and then sits vs Martin Perez (L) and Lively (R) tonight? You'd have to think it's some sort of injury or other issue, right? Milliken on the "Section 10" podcast was ludicrously suggesting he might get DFA'd soon, to which I would say: A) it's April 23rd, and B) EVERYONE IS HURT WHO ARE YOU REPLACING HIM WITH, and C) again, it's April 23rd.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 23, 2024 14:14:17 GMT -5
That's in the MLB though, Kavadas has a 32% K Rate in AAA so far on his life, and actually had an even higher K rate in AA. How many guys have an >30% K rate in AAA and are able to be average MLB hitters? (Serious question, I have no idea, but my sense is it is a low number). Before Dalbec's good MLB stretch in 2020-2021 he struck out <25% of the time across AA and AAA in 2019. Well again, "strikes out a lot" =/= "Dalbecian." In a big sample last season Dalbec struck out 34% of the time at AAA and he seems to have deteriorated since then. Kavadas is at 30% in AAA this season, and he also has higher BB rates than Dalbec ever did. I wouldn't expect Kavadas to be an average MLB hitter. But that's a much higher bar than "better than Dalbec." (I'm not even trying to argue for Kavadas to get called up; just that there's a reasonable case that he'd be a better hitter right now than Dalbec.)
Kavadas is first base only.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 23, 2024 14:14:20 GMT -5
That's in the MLB though, Kavadas has a 32% K Rate in AAA so far on his life, and actually had an even higher K rate in AA. How many guys have an >30% K rate in AAA and are able to be average MLB hitters? (Serious question, I have no idea, but my sense is it is a low number). Before Dalbec's good MLB stretch in 2020-2021 he struck out <25% of the time across AA and AAA in 2019. Well again, "strikes out a lot" =/= "Dalbecian." In a big sample last season Dalbec struck out 34% of the time at AAA and he seems to have deteriorated since then. Kavadas is at 30% in AAA this season, and he also has higher BB rates than Dalbec ever did.
I wouldn't expect Kavadas to be an average MLB hitter. But that's a much higher bar than "better than Dalbec." (I'm not even trying to argue for Kavadas to get called up; just that there's a reasonable case that he'd be a better hitter right now than Dalbec.)
Yeah I mean it's reasonable to think he might be a better hitter than Dalbec, not really sure there, it would sure be nice if they could figure out a plan at 1B that didn't rely on using someone overwhelmingly likely to be well below replacement level (which they both are).
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Post by incandenza on Apr 23, 2024 14:22:33 GMT -5
I missed that Yoshida isn't playing and against another RH. That makes me a little nervous. Yeah something isn't adding up there. Yoshi hits a clutch homerun on 4/20 in Pittsburgh and then sits vs Martin Perez (L) and Lively (R) tonight? You'd have to think it's some sort of injury or other issue, right? Milliken on the "Section 10" podcast was ludicrously suggesting he might get DFA'd soon, to which I would say: A) it's April 23rd, and B) EVERYONE IS HURT WHO ARE YOU REPLACING HIM WITH, and C) again, it's April 23rd. Are people completely unaware he's been one of the team's hottest hitters lately? 162 wRC+ in his last 30 PAs.
Are people further unaware that he has the third (Steamer) or fourth (Zips) best projection of any hitter on the team?
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Post by wamderingdude on Apr 23, 2024 14:25:19 GMT -5
I’m hoping Yoshida is dealing with something because if not… woof. If TON had to DH today, and they looked at a righty on the mound and genuinely thought playing Refsnyder was a better idea than Yoshida, it’s a horrendous look.
Add: I don’t agree with him sitting if he’s available, but if that’s how the team views him… yikes.
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Post by asm18 on Apr 23, 2024 14:27:04 GMT -5
Hmmm...
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Post by incandenza on Apr 23, 2024 14:31:30 GMT -5
Cooper's more intriguing to me than the other names I've seen bandied about.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 23, 2024 14:32:12 GMT -5
Pls take Garrett Cooper. I got it when they wanted to try Hamilton out vs. getting like a 0.5 WAR shortstop replacement. Dalbec is not the same case.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,138
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Post by cdj on Apr 23, 2024 14:43:57 GMT -5
I need Garrett Cooper. He had a good spring and has been ok this year
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 23, 2024 14:44:12 GMT -5
Putting a claim on Cooper seems like a no brainer to me..
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 23, 2024 14:48:59 GMT -5
Putting a claim on Cooper seems like a no brainer to me.. I'm guessing a claim isn't going to get it. The Sox will need to trade something not on the 40 man.
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Apr 23, 2024 14:49:28 GMT -5
Putting a claim on Cooper seems like a no brainer to me.. Jump the line and offer cash considerations or a PTBNL.
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 23, 2024 14:51:00 GMT -5
Niko is hot. He strikes out a lot but he's also walking and hitting doubles and Home runs which is why his on base percentage is so high. His numbers this year are very good yes only 15 games but we need a 1st baseman right now and instead of Bobby who no longer deserves a look at this point why not put Niko in there.
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Post by ajs1994 on Apr 23, 2024 14:57:03 GMT -5
I don't have an opinion on calling up Kavadas, really, but I would just point out that "strikes out a lot" =/= "Dalbecian strikeout numbers." Dalbec hasn't had a K rate lower than 40% in a month since June 2022. Since July 1st of that year he has a 45.7% K rate over 230 PAs. In his last 103 PAs it's 53.4%. Bear in mind this is the stat that normalizes quickest, at around 60 PAs. Kavadas might be a poor man's Joey Gallo, but that would still be a significant improvement over the kind of hitter Dalbec's been for almost two years now.
You could also see if he comes up and does that thing where a call-up has a hot streak in their first month before the league adjusts to him. That would bridge the gap nicely until Casas (hopefully...) comes back.
That's in the MLB though, Kavadas has a 32% K Rate in AAA so far on his life, and actually had an even higher K rate in AA. How many guys have an >30% K rate in AAA and are able to be average MLB hitters? (Serious question, I have no idea, but my sense is it is a low number). Before Dalbec's good MLB stretch in 2020-2021 he struck out <25% of the time across AA and AAA in 2019. I was curious about this question, so looked it up and found a few "successes" since 2014 (your mileage may vary on how successful these are): Matt Chapman - Struck out 30.8% of the time in 289 PAs in AAA. Been an above 100 wrc+ player each year in MLB. Brent Rooker - struck out 34.7% in AAA in 2019, 30% in 2021, got it down to 28% in 2022, and had a big 2023 (127 wrc+) after struggling in his initial major league exposure until then. TBD if he is able to repeat that level. Josh Lowe - Struck out 26.2% in AAA in 2021, climbed up to 32.8% in AAA in 2022. Had a bad first year in the majors, broke out last year with 131 wrc+. TBD if he repeats. Joey Gallo - nobody can really compare to him, since his raw power is so insane he might be above average wrc+ while striking out 40+% of the time again this year. Jose Siri - Was decent last year, but I personally don't believe in his bat. K'd 30.7% of the time in 2021 in AAA, but had cut it down to 25.6 in 78 plate appearances in 2022 before getting the call up. TBD on Nelson Velasquez. Elly De La Cruz struck out 30.9% of the time in AA in 207 PAs, then 26.9% in AAA in 186. Is destroying in small sample size so far this year. Most others didn't make it, or only had a year or two of note with replacement level seasons mixed in (like Trayce Thompson). Don't know if this says anything about Niko's chances, but it was interesting to look at.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 23, 2024 14:58:46 GMT -5
Niko is hot. He strikes out a lot but he's also walking and hitting doubles and Home runs which is why his on base percentage is so high. His numbers this year are very good yes only 15 games but we need a 1st baseman right now and instead of Bobby who no longer deserves a look at this point why not put Niko in there. If your argument is to play him because he's hot but "hot" involves a 30+% K%, then I am more or less out on that idea. If he were already on the 40 man roster, then sure. But if you're going to do some reconfiguration of the 40 man anyway, you might as well pursue an option that has some sort of major league track record.
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