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gerry
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Post by gerry on Apr 22, 2024 11:09:40 GMT -5
Its crazy looking at the pole to open this thread and to see how few thought whitlock or Houck would be in the rotation. Guilty. The consensus seemed to be that they were well above average bullpen arms so leave them there. With Giolito, Monty, Bello, Crawford and Pivetta why upset the apple cart? Things change.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 22, 2024 12:52:07 GMT -5
Its crazy looking at the pole to open this thread and to see how few thought whitlock or Houck would be in the rotation. Guilty. The consensus seemed to be that they were well above average bullpen arms so leave them there. With Giolito, Monty, Bello, Crawford and Pivetta why upset the apple cart? Things change. My take was that if they were the 6th and 7th starters on paper they would still get their chances. And they would have because Giolito, Pivetta, and Whitlock himself have all been injured in the first few weeks of the season.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 22, 2024 18:09:19 GMT -5
I'm all for crazy hypotheticals- Also not falling for it. Tanner has added a cutter this year, (he's not throwing it a lot but something worth noting).Dropped his 4 seam fastball entirely. But the biggest change in Houck is the splitter. Splitter. Splitter. Splitter. That extra inches in vertical drop is the difference between a LHB fouling off the pitch or spitting on it, versus not recognizing more spin and swinging through it (or making weak contact.) The foul pitches drives up the pitch count, where he can't make it past 5 innings, (can't put batters away). And thank you. Tanner has added a cutter this year, (he's not throwing it a lot but something worth noting)
He threw it 187 times last year, with good results (.308 xwOBA, .285 wOBA).
Re the splitter ...
First of all, there are large differences in pitch movement from to game. In Houck's first start last year the threw the splitter twice in the first 3 innings and averaged 42.7 inches of drop! He threw it three more times but managed only 34.8.
Second, there is this thing called "gravity" that causes all pitches to drop at a fixed rate. The lower the velocity, the more time goes by for the pitch to drop. So pitch drop including gravity is combining two different things. You know who has more vertical drop (measured this way) that Houck, on any pitch you can name? Me! At my age I've probably shed 10 or 15 pounds of muscle, so I don't think I can get the ball to home plate. That's 75 inches of drop!
Seriously, the way you measure this is to exclude gravity, and Statcast has that data, too. (I don't blame you for this mes. Rather, the completely clueless clown who cited the data on X.)
There are 127 pitchers who have thrown a change or splitter 20 or more times this tear. Tanner Houck ranks third in most downward with -2.6 inches (where negative means the spin on the ball caused it to go down relative to gravity), trailing only Cooper Criswell and Logan Webb. That's -2.6 plus or minus 1.4. He's had games with -3.3, -0.8, -1.0, and -4.0.
Where was he at this point in the season last year, after four starts? Second to Webb, with -1.6 plus or minus 1.4. Note that the one inch difference in years is smaller than the variance (plus or minus), so the difference is not significant.
As I have have been mentioning all winter and spring, Houck was the second best pitcher in MLB last year when he got hurt -- through inning three, before he hit the stamina wall, which no loner exists. A big part of that was the already elite splitter. He had a .159 xwOBA and .110 wOBA with the splitter through inning three -- better numbers than this year overall.
------
If you think about pitching a baseball, you'll see that it is extremely difficult to avoid putting backspin on the ball without contorting the hand to go over the ball in the curveball grip. The average off-speed pitch has 5 inches of rise relative to gravity.
The "sinker" is the same: it rises a lot less than a four-seamer, but almost without exception, it still rises relatively.
Whose sinker sinks the most, in all of MLB? The average is 9 inches of rise ... Houck led last year with -1.0. He leads so far with year with 0.4, but that's 0.3, 0.5, 0.8. -0.8.
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Post by asm18 on Apr 24, 2024 9:10:21 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2024 14:57:49 GMT -5
All 5 of the Red Sox starters have plus "karma", i.e., their wOBA is less than their xwOBA. The odds of that being random are 2^5, or 1 in 32.
I got curious. The Sox have the second best starting pitcher karma in MLB. Do the champs, the Rangers, have all of their regular starters with good karama?
Yes they do! As do #3 Mets and #4 Padres. Now the odds are 1 in 1,048,576.
I think that "karma" here is defensive positioning.
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Post by okin15 on Apr 24, 2024 15:13:57 GMT -5
All 5 of the Red Sox starters have plus "karma", i.e., their wOBA is less than their xwOBA. The odds of that being random are 2^5, or 1 in 32. We have different definitions of Karma :-)
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 25, 2024 21:37:20 GMT -5
With Pivetta, Whitlock, and Bello out, the rotation IMO should be:
Crawford Houck Winckowski Criswell Opener Bernardino / Kelly
The downside is that the openers are less available for relief, but Chase Anderson has done well in mop up and needs to stay there.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 27, 2024 9:56:18 GMT -5
Odds on Bello being out less than a month?
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Post by asm18 on Apr 27, 2024 11:10:57 GMT -5
Apparently might do rehab start around Thursday (Ian Browne)
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,380
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Post by radiohix on Apr 28, 2024 8:30:07 GMT -5
Joely DFA’d to make room for Uwasawa who got called up.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 1, 2024 13:42:22 GMT -5
xwOBA and / wOBA of all the stating or bulk pitchers. Note the pattern.
For amusement I've added the depth chart position at the start of the spring.
.271 / .245 Crawford [4]
.281 / .236 Houck [5]
.289 / .251 Criswell [8]
.298 / .231 Pivettta [3
.304 / .287 Bello [2]
.327 / .283 Whitlock [6]
.359 / .275 Winckoswki (2 G) [7]
.350 / .314 Anderson (all ) .541 / .660 start (1) [9]
Huge apparent contribution from defensive positioning.
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Post by incandenza on May 1, 2024 13:50:52 GMT -5
xwOBA and / wOBA of all the stating or bulk pitchers. Note the pattern.
For amusement I've added the depth chart position at the start of the spring.
.271 / .245 Crawford [4]
.281 / .236 Houck [5]
.289 / .251 Criswell [8]
.298 / .231 Pivettta [3
.304 / .287 Bello [2]
.327 / .283 Whitlock [6]
.359 / .275 Winckoswki (2 G) [7]
.350 / .314 Anderson (all ) .541 / .660 start (1) [9]
Huge apparent contribution from defensive positioning.
Relatedly (?), I've noticed that the starting rotation's ERA is a full run below their FIP. And every single starter has an ERA<FIP. Which is especially weird considering that the defense has generally sucked!
Positioning could be one explanation, but it surprises me if there's still that much relative gain to be had from a team's defensive positioning in the year 2024.
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Post by itinerantherb on May 1, 2024 14:45:14 GMT -5
xwOBA and / wOBA of all the stating or bulk pitchers. Note the pattern.
For amusement I've added the depth chart position at the start of the spring.
.271 / .245 Crawford [4]
.281 / .236 Houck [5]
.289 / .251 Criswell [8]
.298 / .231 Pivettta [3
.304 / .287 Bello [2]
.327 / .283 Whitlock [6]
.359 / .275 Winckoswki (2 G) [7]
.350 / .314 Anderson (all ) .541 / .660 start (1) [9]
Huge apparent contribution from defensive positioning.
Relatedly (?), I've noticed that the starting rotation's ERA is a full run below their FIP. And every single starter has an ERA<FIP. Which is especially weird considering that the defense has generally sucked!
Positioning could be one explanation, but it surprises me if there's still that much relative gain to be had from a team's defensive positioning in the year 2024.
Thanks for this, Eric. I'd noticed the gap for individual pitchers but didn't realize that it was a staff-wide phenomenon. I don't have a clear understanding of what exactly xwOBA does and doesn't account for, so other than defensive positioning (and luck), what other factors do you think could contribute to the pattern?
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Post by incandenza on May 1, 2024 22:18:17 GMT -5
This just popped into my head for no particular reason...
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 1, 2024 23:37:51 GMT -5
Again, these are not journalists. They are not vying for a seat at the table with Gammons. They use the media as a bullhorn and simply move on to the next bit of noise making. It would be honorable for Abraham to take responsibility for this and other takes, but I'm not holding my breath.
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 2, 2024 7:32:16 GMT -5
If traveled back in time and said to you 5 months ago that a month into the season the mostly home grown Boston Red Sox starting rotation was arguably the best in baseball you'd laugh.....really really hard, and then maybe cry that we still hadn't signed Monty/Snell, who no one is talking about anymore.
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Post by scottysmalls on May 2, 2024 8:47:15 GMT -5
Odds on Bello being out less than a month?
Bello supposedly set to have a rehab start on Tuesday, so perhaps he will actually be quick.
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 2, 2024 10:03:02 GMT -5
Has Cooper Criswell pitched his way onto the 26 man roster when Bello/Pivetta and Whitlock are all back? He's certainly pitched like a guy you'd be comfortable as the 6th starter/Swingman type, or do we keep him stretched out in AAA?
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Post by ematz1423 on May 2, 2024 10:04:15 GMT -5
Has Cooper Criswell pitched his way onto the 26 man roster when Bello/Pivetta and Whitlock are all back? He's certainly pitched like a guy you'd be comfortable as the 6th starter/Swingman type, or do we keep him stretched out in AAA? Good question, I think I'd lean towards keeping him stretched out in AAA but I could see both sides of the argument.
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 2, 2024 11:48:10 GMT -5
Has Cooper Criswell pitched his way onto the 26 man roster when Bello/Pivetta and Whitlock are all back? He's certainly pitched like a guy you'd be comfortable as the 6th starter/Swingman type, or do we keep him stretched out in AAA? Good question, I think I'd lean towards keeping him stretched out in AAA but I could see both sides of the argument. Yeah this makes sense, also because given how things may play out it's perfectly plausible to assume at some point he will be needed in Boston again this year.
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Post by asm18 on May 2, 2024 12:07:52 GMT -5
Good question, I think I'd lean towards keeping him stretched out in AAA but I could see both sides of the argument. Yeah this makes sense, also because given how things may play out it's perfectly plausible to assume at some point he will be needed in Boston again this year. I guess related to this - Mata is starting his rehab assignment. If Pivetta returns next week (knock on wood), Chase Anderson could go back to the Long Relief/Garbage Time role that Uwasawa is currently in - who can then be optioned down to Worcester. Would they DFA Anderson and basically give Mata that job instead when he's ready?
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Post by okin15 on May 2, 2024 17:33:32 GMT -5
Who starts or throws long on Saturday? Thought they’d use Uwasawa early in the week for that but guess not.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 3, 2024 12:53:22 GMT -5
If traveled back in time and said to you 5 months ago that a month into the season the mostly home grown Boston Red Sox starting rotation was arguably the best in baseball you'd laugh.....really really hard, and then maybe cry that we still hadn't signed Monty/Snell, who no one is talking about anymore. Not everyone would laugh! Me on October 4: "The projected 2024 roster here has [Tanner Houck] in the bullpen. I'll assert right now that he has a better chance of getting a CY vote than he does of pitching mostly in relief."
Later that day, julyanmorley: "Pivetta added a sweeper midway through the season and it was his best pitch. 116 strikeouts and 22 walks in 82 innings from July through the end of the season." I replied "Yes yes yes" and ran his wOBA and xwOBA numbers, which were elite.
It went on from there. By the 26th I was also high on Crawfors and finished "You know things are looking up when the pitcher who least excites "you" (in this case, me) in terms of taking a major step forward from 2023 value is Bryan Bello."
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Post by strike23 on May 3, 2024 13:48:47 GMT -5
Has Cooper Criswell pitched his way onto the 26 man roster when Bello/Pivetta and Whitlock are all back? He's certainly pitched like a guy you'd be comfortable as the 6th starter/Swingman type, or do we keep him stretched out in AAA? let's get a full healthy rotation before addressing this question.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on May 3, 2024 13:51:30 GMT -5
True, Eric, but as 2023 ended we were all hoping, even fairly confident in a rotation which, in addition to Crawford, Pivetta and Bello might include a Yonamoto, Imanaga, Montgomery or Big Maple. Most believed Houck, Whitlock, Winck and Schreiber would be the core of an awesome Pen for years.
Only a few foresaw an awesome ‘homegrown’ rotation of Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock and Houck. What a happy outcome.
BTW no one foresaw the potentially happy outcomes of Criswell, Uwasawa, Fitts and others.
Life is good, even though we never quite understand it.
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