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This may be the off-season to trade for Juan Soto
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Post by yuchangclan on Nov 4, 2023 11:21:01 GMT -5
I’d happily jump on this suggestion by Orioles GM Mike Elias’ burner account. (I’m kidding about the Mike Elias part…sorta) Sox might have to throw in Casey Kelly to get this done.
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Nov 10, 2023 17:06:22 GMT -5
Buster Olney reports that he will 100% be traded this offseason.
Forget Ohtani. Forget Yamamoto. Forget my latest binkie Burnes. This is the centerpiece of your offseason. No prospect is off the table (it won’t take all 3 of the top guys to get it done). Be creative if you have to. Get it done. When you do, you won’t have many bullets left for other trade acquisitions, so plan accordingly. Sign him to a 12 year extension. Fill all other holes with FA, with the exception of someone like Drury at 2B. He’ll cost peanuts in comparison, so I think you can still get that trade done with minimal handwringing.
Yamamoto would also be nice as well!
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 11, 2023 10:10:34 GMT -5
Buster Olney reports that he will 100% be traded this offseason. Forget Ohtani. Forget Yamamoto. Forget my latest binkie Burnes. This is the centerpiece of your offseason. No prospect is off the table (it won’t take all 3 of the top guys to get it done). Be creative if you have to. Get it done. When you do, you won’t have many bullets left for other trade acquisitions, so plan accordingly. Sign him to a 12 year extension. Fill all other holes with FA, with the exception of someone like Drury at 2B. He’ll cost peanuts in comparison, so I think you can still get that trade done with minimal handwringing. Yamamoto would also be nice as well! If it came with a guaranteed extension I’d certainly agree that there’s no one off the table, but especially given the return the Sox got for Mookie, and how little leverage the Padres seemingly have right now, I’m not sure it’s going to take *that* much.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 11, 2023 23:39:13 GMT -5
Buster Olney reports that he will 100% be traded this offseason. Forget Ohtani. Forget Yamamoto. Forget my latest binkie Burnes. This is the centerpiece of your offseason. No prospect is off the table (it won’t take all 3 of the top guys to get it done). Be creative if you have to. Get it done. When you do, you won’t have many bullets left for other trade acquisitions, so plan accordingly. Sign him to a 12 year extension. Fill all other holes with FA, with the exception of someone like Drury at 2B. He’ll cost peanuts in comparison, so I think you can still get that trade done with minimal handwringing. Yamamoto would also be nice as well! If it came with a guaranteed extension I’d certainly agree that there’s no one off the table, but especially given the return the Sox got for Mookie, and how little leverage the Padres seemingly have right now, I’m not sure it’s going to take *that* much. I would think the Padres would have multiple teams going after him, from the Yankees to the Mets to the Sox to the Giants to the Cubs. Because the Sox were stapling half of David Price's contract that lowered the price and the amount of teams in the bidding to just LA. If I were Preller I'd want Roman Anthony in a deal for Soto. I'd have to think he can wrangle a top prospect out of somebody. Soto will fetch more than Betts did as long as Cronenworth or Bogaerts' lengthy deal isnt attached.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 11, 2023 23:43:13 GMT -5
If it came with a guaranteed extension I’d certainly agree that there’s no one off the table, but especially given the return the Sox got for Mookie, and how little leverage the Padres seemingly have right now, I’m not sure it’s going to take *that* much. I would think the Padres would have multiple teams going after him, from the Yankees to the Mets to the Sox to the Giants to the Cubs. Because the Sox were stapling half of David Price's contract that lowered the price and the amount of teams in the bidding to just LA. If I were Preller I'd want Roman Anthony in a deal for Soto. I'd have to think he can wrangle a top prospect out of somebody. Soto will fetch more than Betts did as long as Cronenworth or Bogaerts' lengthy deal isnt attached. Good point
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Post by melvinhoggs on Nov 13, 2023 15:03:07 GMT -5
Trading for Soto without including a single high-tier prospect? Trading for Tatis without including Anthony, Mayer or Teel?
If Breslow pulled one of those off, he would be vaulted to the top of the GM wizardry rankings. I like the spirit of it, but I don't see either of those packages even coming close. For me, if Tatis is really an option, there isn't a single prospect who's off the table.
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Post by brendan98 on Nov 13, 2023 15:29:58 GMT -5
I don't know if this has been brought up yet, but how about a Soto trade package centered around Yoshida?
Red Sox get: Soto
Padres get: Yoshida Houck Bleis or Yorke Drohan
I hope the Sox don't deal Mayer, Anthony or Teel from the positional prospects, and would like to see them keep the arms with the highest upside Wikelman and Perales.
I think if you could get this deal done, you have Soto, Duran, Abreu, Refsnyder in the outfield. Trade Verdugo for pitching, and probably try to resign Duvall if you can. I'd like to see Rafaela get a shot at the starting 2B job, and also bring back Turner to DH and balance out the lineup.
C Wong 1B Casas Turner 2B Rafaela Reyes SS Story Reyes 3B Devers Turner DH Turner LF Soto CF Duran Refsnyder Rafaela RF Abreu Duvall
On a daily basis you'd have Soto, Turner, Devers, Story, Casas in the middle of your lineup.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 13, 2023 17:05:24 GMT -5
From what the rumors say the Yankees are the favorites and willing to give up Schmidt, King, and a highly rated OF prospect.
I guess a comparative package might be two of Houck, Crawford, Whitlock, or Winckowski and either Abreu or Rafaela or Duran.
I'd guess if the Yankees part with Dominguez they'd probably get Soto. The Sox perhaps would have to look at parting with Anthony, which I would be hesitant to do.
I would think Houck, Crawford, Rafaela plus Hickey might get some consideration?
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Post by kwodes on Nov 13, 2023 17:18:41 GMT -5
From what the rumors say the Yankees are the favorites and willing to give up Schmidt, King, and a highly rated OF prospect. I guess a comparative package might be two of Houck, Crawford, Whitlock, or Winckowski and either Abreu or Rafaela or Duran. I'd guess if the Yankees part with Dominguez they'd probably get Soto. The Sox perhaps would have to look at parting with Anthony, which I would be hesitant to do. I would think Houck, Crawford, Rafaela plus Hickey might get some consideration? I'd give up Crawford, Houck, Rafaela, Yorke right now for Soto
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 13, 2023 17:36:10 GMT -5
From what the rumors say the Yankees are the favorites and willing to give up Schmidt, King, and a highly rated OF prospect. I guess a comparative package might be two of Houck, Crawford, Whitlock, or Winckowski and either Abreu or Rafaela or Duran. I'd guess if the Yankees part with Dominguez they'd probably get Soto. The Sox perhaps would have to look at parting with Anthony, which I would be hesitant to do. I would think Houck, Crawford, Rafaela plus Hickey might get some consideration? I'd give up Crawford, Houck, Rafaela, Yorke right now for Soto Me, too.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 13, 2023 22:37:49 GMT -5
Trading for Soto without including a single high-tier prospect? Trading for Tatis without including Anthony, Mayer or Teel? If Breslow pulled one of those off, he would be vaulted to the top of the GM wizardry rankings. I like the spirit of it, but I don't see either of those packages even coming close. For me, if Tatis is really an option, there isn't a single prospect who's off the table. Is Soto's surplus value more than 3.6 WAR? Serious question because I was stuck on it while figuring out what to offer. It's a lot like the Betts trade. One year of a franchise player who's already getting paid for 3-ish WAR. With Betts, he had a 10-WAR ceiling, so you'd hope for a bigger return, but Soto is basically bat-only value... but oh, what a bat! What do you think the real price will be? I put together what should amount to a good deal more than 3.6 WAR. As always, it will depend on whether one team offers a marquee prospect that Preller can point to and say "look, I got the goods." Will that be from Breslow or will he assemble 5 WAR worth of Verdugo plus young pitching? Only one way to find out...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 13, 2023 23:08:58 GMT -5
Trading for Soto without including a single high-tier prospect? Trading for Tatis without including Anthony, Mayer or Teel? If Breslow pulled one of those off, he would be vaulted to the top of the GM wizardry rankings. I like the spirit of it, but I don't see either of those packages even coming close. For me, if Tatis is really an option, there isn't a single prospect who's off the table. Is Soto's surplus value more than 3.6 WAR? Serious question because I was stuck on it while figuring out what to offer. It's a lot like the Betts trade. One year of a franchise player who's already getting paid for 3-ish WAR. With Betts, he had a 10-WAR ceiling, so you'd hope for a bigger return, but Soto is basically bat-only value... but oh, what a bat! What do you think the real price will be? I put together what should amount to a good deal more than 3.6 WAR. As always, it will depend on whether one team offers a marquee prospect that Preller can point to and say "look, I got the goods." Will that be from Breslow or will he assemble 5 WAR worth of Verdugo plus young pitching? Only one way to find out... Soto is like Mookie only if a big contract is included in the deal. Half of David Price's decreased the return price for Mookie. If Cronenworth or Xander isnt included in the deal Soto will fetch more than what Mookie plus Price brought back.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,138
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Post by cdj on Nov 13, 2023 23:40:53 GMT -5
Would he though? Mookie is the better player over Soto after all so maybe that makes up the difference in value of taking on Price’s contract (which was a lot less of a bomb than Xander or Cronenworth)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 13, 2023 23:52:16 GMT -5
Would he though? Mookie is the better player over Soto after all so maybe that makes up the difference in value of taking on Price’s contract (which was a lot less of a bomb than Xander or Cronenworth) Mookie's market was depressed. Only the Dodgers could take on Prices deal and had prospects to deal and the ability to extend Betts. The Padres arent adding salaries as far as we know and therefore will have more suitors to deal for Soto which should net them more than what the Sox got for Mookie.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 14, 2023 0:21:51 GMT -5
Would he though? Mookie is the better player over Soto after all so maybe that makes up the difference in value of taking on Price’s contract (which was a lot less of a bomb than Xander or Cronenworth) Mookie's market was depressed. Only the Dodgers could take on Prices deal and had prospects to deal and the ability to extend Betts. The Padres arent adding salaries as far as we know and therefore will have more suitors to deal for Soto which should net them more than what the Sox got for Mookie. So what's the appropriate offer? Let's get this thing done!
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 14, 2023 7:28:45 GMT -5
Hypothetically if the Red Sox were to trade for Soto I’d happily take Cronenworth if it meant lowering the return. Still a good defender at second and an emergency back up at short. Great base runner. Not convinced he’s cooked offensively yet, but even if he doesn’t bounce back at all he’s worth his contract if you play him at second instead of first.
For all those reasons I doubt he’d actually lower a return all that much, but it’s nice in theory. I also have a fear that the Yankees are gonna make this deal, they could mitigate the prospect loss by trading Torres, and then he’ll hit a hundred home runs in Yankee Stadium.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,988
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Post by jimoh on Nov 14, 2023 9:14:13 GMT -5
Hypothetically if the Red Sox were to trade for Soto I’d happily take Cronenworth if it meant lowering the return. Still a good defender at second and an emergency back up at short. Great base runner. Not convinced he’s cooked offensively yet, but even if he doesn’t bounce back at all he’s worth his contract if you play him at second instead of first. For all those reasons I doubt he’d actually lower a return all that much, but it’s nice in theory. I also have a fear that the Yankees are gonna make this deal, they could mitigate the prospect loss by trading Torres, and then he’ll hit a hundred home runs in Yankee Stadium. Cronenworth, if he remembers how to hit, might help for a year or two, but then for 2026-2030 you're still paying him $12M at ages 32-36, when he would be a backup to Story or a current prospect, if not off golfing like most 35 year old middle infielders. Is that worth it?
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 14, 2023 10:31:27 GMT -5
Hypothetically if the Red Sox were to trade for Soto I’d happily take Cronenworth if it meant lowering the return. Still a good defender at second and an emergency back up at short. Great base runner. Not convinced he’s cooked offensively yet, but even if he doesn’t bounce back at all he’s worth his contract if you play him at second instead of first. For all those reasons I doubt he’d actually lower a return all that much, but it’s nice in theory. I also have a fear that the Yankees are gonna make this deal, they could mitigate the prospect loss by trading Torres, and then he’ll hit a hundred home runs in Yankee Stadium. Cronenworth, if he remembers how to hit, might help for a year or two, but then for 2026-2030 you're still paying him $12M at ages 32-36, when he would be a backup to Story or a current prospect, if not off golfing like most 35 year old middle infielders. Is that worth it? Like any other contract you hope to get surplus value in the first few years and then that he ages well enough. At $12M per year I don't think it's crazy he could maintain enough performance to be worth that on it's own, especially given his versatility. He was a 4 win player just a year ago. Not saying they should go after him aggressively but if the Padres want to dump him and pay some of his salary or attach him to reduce the return for Soto I'd be all in on that.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 14, 2023 10:56:56 GMT -5
Not sure the math works if you take on both Soto and Cronenworth, in addition to buying a front-line starter and the necessary peripheral upgrades.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 14, 2023 11:26:55 GMT -5
Sox get: Soto (1 yr, $27m) Bogaerts (10 yrs, $25.4m AAV)
Padres get: Whitlock (3-5 yrs, $6m-$7.5m AAV) Winckowski (5 yrs, rookie deal) Verdugo (1 yr, ~$9m) Yorke
Lineup:
Duran Soto Devers Casas Bogaerts Yoshida Abreu Story McGuire/Wong
2B problem solved. Would probably need to aim at lower tier in FA or trade to improve the rotation.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 14, 2023 11:29:45 GMT -5
We had some great times with Xander and I was sad to see him go but under no circumstances do I want him back on that ridiculously bad contract the Padres gave him. He's their problem now.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 14, 2023 11:29:55 GMT -5
Sox get: Soto (1 yr, $27m) Bogaerts (10 yrs, $25.4m AAV) Padres get: Whitlock (3-5 yrs, $6m-$7.5m AAV) Winckowski (5 yrs, rookie deal) Verdugo (1 yr, ~$9m) Yorke Lineup: Duran Soto Devers Casas Bogaerts Yoshida Abreu Story McGuire/Wong 2B problem solved. Would probably need to aim at lower tier in FA or trade to improve the rotation. That would be quite the blow to the bullpen, while taking on a ton of money. You'd still need to spend on 2 SP, 2 pen arms to replace winck and whit, and find a replacement RF
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 14, 2023 12:24:17 GMT -5
Sox get: Soto (1 yr, $27m) Bogaerts (10 yrs, $25.4m AAV) Padres get: Whitlock (3-5 yrs, $6m-$7.5m AAV) Winckowski (5 yrs, rookie deal) Verdugo (1 yr, ~$9m) Yorke Lineup: Duran Soto Devers Casas Bogaerts Yoshida Abreu Story McGuire/Wong 2B problem solved. Would probably need to aim at lower tier in FA or trade to improve the rotation. That would be quite the blow to the bullpen, while taking on a ton of money. You'd still need to spend on 2 SP, 2 pen arms to replace winck and whit, and find a replacement RF OF = Soto, Duran, Abreu, Refsnyder, Michael A. Taylor ($7-8m AAV) I agree with @eric that the rotation is not in as dire straits as many insist and don't think we need to sign two. Sign a second tier SP or make a trade with SEA. I'd love a slam-dunk ace and we may well have one or more on the roster already. I'll leave the RP acquisition to the new pitching guru in the big chair. I don't believe that Whitlock and Winckowski are irreplaceable. They're cheap and controllable, which is what SD wants. You can find others who aren't as cheap and you still have Jansen and Martin at the back.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 14, 2023 12:47:21 GMT -5
It's just not feasible to me to trade for Soto and Xander in a deal. That would kill any sort of long term payroll flexibility, since you only trade for Soto if you intend to extend him and he's getting a massive 10-13+ year 400+M deal. You'd have Rafi, Soto and Xander clogging up the payroll for the next 9+ seasons, that's not a recipe for success and you probably just turn into the East Coast Padres with an extremely top heavy roster with no ability to add FAs for a while.
Not to mention that OF defense would be awful.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 14, 2023 13:04:06 GMT -5
We had some great times with Xander and I was sad to see him go but under no circumstances do I want him back on that ridiculously bad contract the Padres gave him. He's their problem now. If it gets you Soto long-term, then I’m fine with the gamble that X will yield 25-ish WAR before it’s done. The key phrase though, when the dust settles, is “long-term.” The more I think about it, the more I think that Soto’s agent would be nuts to let him sign a long-term deal with whatever team trades for him. Talk about leaving money on the table. Who’s his agent anyway? […shuffles papers… reaches for reference books…]. Oh, it’s the Boras Corporation. So he’s definitely not signing a long-term deal and we’re back to bidding for 3.6 excess WAR, plus whatever advantage is gained, in terms of signing him long-term, from being the third team he’s played for in the last three seasons, which I would estimate at zero. And if you do sign him, it will be at top-of-market rates that probably won’t be a great $/WAR proposition. So I’m back to my original bid that probably gets SD 5-10 WAR by the end of it, in the form of two controllable pitchers with starter upside, a veteran OF to fill Soto’s spot on the grass in 2024 in Verdugo, and a top-20 (in the system) prospect. And not eating Bogie’s giant deal. And maybe bidding on Soto a year from now. Is that a winning bid? Probably not. There’s probably at least one team who will bid like they’re getting Soto forever and Preller will put it on his CV and the person who wins the auction will lose his/her job when Soto walks next year (unless it’s MFY GM-for-life Cashman, who must have some really good dirt on the Steinbrenner family). Thank you for helping me regain my senses…
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